Emerging Technologies and the IC: Opportunities and Challenges

Nicholas J. DiorioDirector of Intelligence, J2/SIO JECC Norfolk, VA

21 APR 2021

Agenda

• Introductions• Theme of Discussion• Emerging Technologies• Opportunities• Challenges• Thoughts and Discussion• Wrap-up

Theme of Discussion• Great potential to transform and empower the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC)

while simultaneously presenting unprecedented challenges from technologically capable adversaries.

• These technologies are expanding, automating, and sharpening the collection and processing of intelligence, augmenting analysts’ ability to develop strategic and value-added analysis and insights, and enabling the IC to better time, tailor, and generate intelligence products for key decision makers.

• U.S. potential adversaries are also rapidly developing, fielding, and integrating these technologies into their intelligence operations against U.S. or Coalition operations/interests.

• * The U.S. IC must overcome inherit human challenges in terms of bureaucratic, technical, and organizational hurdles to harnessing, adopting, and assimilating new technologies into timely, predicable, accurate, and digestible products and analysis---while not being overly enamored with the technologies themselves. Emerging Technologies should not be the driver but rather the tool for the human element to harness, analyze, digest, and make key decisions.

Emerging Technologies• Great potential to transform and empower the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC)

while simultaneously presenting unprecedented challenges from technologically capable adversaries.

• These technologies can help expand, automate, and sharpen the collection and processing of intelligence, augment analysts’ ability to develop strategic and value-added analysis and insights, and enable the IC to better time, tailor, and generate intelligence products for key decision makers.

• * Potential adversaries are also rapidly moving to develop, field, and integrate these technologies into their intelligence operations against the U.S. or any Coalition operations.

• * The U.S. IC also must overcome inherit human challenges in terms of bureaucratic, technical, and organizational hurdles to harnessing, adopting, and assimilating new technologies into timely, predicable, accurate, and digestible products and analysis--while not being overly enamored with the technologies themselves. Emerging Technologies should not be the driver but rather the tool for the human element to harness, analyze, digest, and make key decisions.

Definitions/Examples(to name a few)

• Artificial Intelligence (AI)• 3D Printing/Mapping• Quantum Computing• Hypersonics• Big Data Analysis• Biometrics• Nanotechnology• 5G• Robotics• Blockchain

Emerging Technology Applications- Analysis Pyramid -

Technological ChangeOpportunities for the IC

Combining emerging technologies with IC-specific data and systems creates unprecedented opportunities for improving how the IC collects, processes, and derives meaning from data and delivers actionable intelligence to policy/decision makers.

• We are well into a period of convergence of four technological trends: - Massive growth in “big data,” (both classified and unclassified) - Proliferation of networked, multimodal sensors- Exponential growth in AI systems (computing power to process data and power AI)- Improvements in AI algorithms and applications particularly suited to intelligence

(computer vision and natural language processing (Voice-to-text; text-to-voice)

Opportunities for the IC (Cont’d)

• Collection: Enabling the IC disciplines (the “INTs) -- Automating and simplifying collected data and prioritizing targets

- GEOINT: Computer vision; 3D mapping; image recognition at speed and scale- SIGINT/ELINT/COMINT: Processing of large quantities of data; speech-to-text translation/transcription

along with natural language processing of intercepted comms- HUMINT: Enabling recruiting; Deriving intelligence; Patterns of life; Spotting and Assessing; Source

verification/CI risks- OSINT: High quality data streams; Commercialization of space and proliferation of satellite-based

sensors

• Analysis: - Smarter Search, Fusion, and Data Visualization- Test Analytical Lines; Compare and Contrast initial “human” findings against machine-derived results- Offloading Analytic Tasks; enabling analysts to offload more tactical or time-intensive tasks onto

machines (ex: daily intel products)- Predictive analysis; Long-range forecasting

Opportunities for the IC (Cont’d)

• Dissemination: Smarter, faster sharing and distribution- Collaboration: enabling analysts to collaborate more efficiently and effectively across geographic

locations in generating intel products; Cloud collaboration- Sharing: multi-layer fabrics/cloud architectures enabling secure info sharing with policymakers, and law

enforcement organizations outside of DoD/IC…or even with Allied/Coalition partners.- Customization: Analysts should be able to better time, tailor, and target products to diverse sets of

consumers according to their unique intelligence needs; Prioritization…

As we contemplate and review IC opportunities offered by various emerging technologies it is also important to understand that these technologies are neither substitutes or silver bullets to fundamental intelligence tasks and problems, nor separate and independent from the human element….

Challenges for the IC

• Emerging Technologies are not exclusive to the U.S• China, Russia, and Iran (plus others) enjoy a structural advantage:

unity of civilian-military effort in developing and employing emerging technologies

- AI; Quantum Computing; Hypersonics; 5G

• Faster concept-to-prototype timeline- Technology theft/CI implications- Fusion of military and civilian/commercial sector R&D- Advances in 5G and Internet-of-things enabling faster Intel distribution of

Intel tool sets -- defensive and offensive applications

Challenges for the IC (Cont’d)• Organizational Challenges: Bureaucracy and Security

- Procurement, Adaptation and Implementation- Stovepipes (i.e. access across all –INTs; often hidden in various IC organizations- Trust, Authentication, and Logic

IC Analysts cannot (should not?) take machine-derived and labeled data as authentic Cyber threatsMachine-learned analysis will be unusable without human logic and understanding

• People- Organizational Cultures: implementing emerging technologies could render some organizations

irrelevant…particularly those that are “INT”-specific- Personnel/Training: Recruiting and training for the IC

How will non-tech savvy career officers and analysts be retrained?Will case officers and political analysts who spent a decade studying Arabic, the Middle East, and intelligence

tradecraft also need to learn how to code? Understand code?

Thoughts and Discussion• Which emerging technologies could be most relevant and impactful across and

within each means of collection (e.g., SIGINT, GEOINT, and HUMINT)?• How can emerging tech such as AI and cloud computing be used to improve

collaboration, coordination, and delivery of intelligence products to policy, intel, military, and allied customers?

• What are the implications of success or failure in incorporating emerging technologies into the U.S. intelligence enterprise for U.S. national security visà-vis global competitors?

Wrap-up

Credits/Sources

• The Intelligence Edge: Opportunities and Challenges from Emerging Technologies for U.S. Intelligence, Brian Katz, April 2020

• Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community, ODNI, April 2021

• Intelligence community’s three A’s of digital transformation: Augmentation, AI and automation, Amelia Brust, January 2021