emerging pv markets a methodology to assess pv market ... · 3 iea workshop at pvsec 2016, munich,...

Emerging PV Markets

A Methodology to Assess PV Market Growth till 2050

Chris WernerJune 2016

Gerlach Consulting

22 IEA Workshop at PVSEC 2016, Munich, GermanyChris Werner | June 2016 | [email protected]

230,046 MWp Installed by End of 2015EMERGING PV MARKETS

Werner, Ch., et al., 2016. Global Photovoltaics in 2015 – Analysis of CurrentSolar Energy Markets and Hidden Growth Regions, this conference


1.48 % of Global Demand Covered by PV in 2015EMERGING PV MARKETS

0,0%

2,0%

4,0%

6,0%

8,0%

10,0%

12,0%

14,0%

Hon

dura

sG

erm

any

Solo

mon

Isla

ndR

wan

daB

elgi

umM

aurit

ania

Hai

tiSl

oven

iaTo

goSl

ovak

iaFr

ance

Aust

riaK

enya

Net

herla

nds

Nep

alCh

ina

Sout

h Af

rica

Dom

inic

an R

epub

licIn

dia

St. V

ince

nt a

nd G

rena

dine

sPe

ruB

angl

ades

hU

krai

neW

este

rn S

ahar

aN

icar

agua

Ango

laN

ew C

aled

onia

Yem

enM

alay

sia

Cost

a R

ica

Esto

nia

Mon

golia

Mal

awi

Kuw

ait

Zam

bia

Kaz

akhs

tan

Bru

nei

Colo

mbi

aB

elar

usYu

gosl

avia

Viet

nam

Liby

aB

huta

nU

zbek

ista

nN

orth

ern

Mar

iana

Isla

nds

Ando

rra

Bah

rain

Gre

enla

nd

PV Power Share in Power Generation 2015

1.48 % of global demandcovered by PV in 2015

69 countries passed 1% mark



High PV Power Shares in many Emerging MarketsEMERGING PV MARKETS

0,0%

2,0%

4,0%

6,0%

8,0%

10,0%

12,0%

14,0%

Hon

dura

s

Kiri

bati

Italy

St. H

elen

a

Ger

man

y

Cape

Ver

de

Gre

ece

Gui

nea

- Bis

sau

Solo

mon

Isla

nd

Equa

toria

l Gui

nea

Sier

ra L

eone

Com

oros

Rw

anda

Mal

ta

Bul

garia

Japa

n

Bel

gium

Czec

h R

epub

lic

Mal

i

Aust

ralia

Mau

ritan

ia

Cypr

us

Rom

ania

Spai

n

Hai

ti

Gua

m

Switz

erla

nd

Isra

el

Slov

enia

Den

mar

k

Uni

ted

Kin

gdom

Sene

gal

Togo

Dom

inic

a

Chile

Gam

bia

Slov

akia

Djib

outi

Chad

Fed.

Sta

tes

of M

icro

nesi

a

PV Power Share in Power Generation 2015

19 countries out of Top 40 in PV Power share are emerging markets



High PV Power Shares in many Emerging MarketsEMERGING PV MARKETS



0,000

0,025

0,050

0,075

0,100

0,125

0,150

900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900

[USD

/KW

H]

[KWH/KWP]

Recent Tenders Show PV to be Competitive TodayEMERGING PV MARKETS

EY, 2014. Mapping power and utilities regulation in EuropeFraunhofer ISE, 2013 + EIA, 2015

dein

zm

pe

mxae

PV LCOE and Recent PV Tenders

Germany, lowestbid 4th tender,

6.94 EURct/kWh

Mexico, Enel, 3.54 USDct/kWh

UAE, 2.99 USDct/kWh

Peru, Enel, 144 MWp4.80 USDct/kWh

Zambia, Neoen/First Solar, 6.00 USDct/kWh

India, Sunedision, 6.50 USDct/kWh


0,000

0,025

0,050

0,075

0,100

0,125

0,150

900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900

[USD

/KW

H]

[KWH/KWP]

Most Competetive Tenders in Emerging MarketsEMERGING PV MARKETS


dein

zm

pe

mxae



0,000

0,025

0,050

0,075

0,100

0,125

0,150

900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900

[USD

/KW

H]

[KWH/KWP]

Most Competetive Tenders in Emerging MarketsEMERGING PV MARKETS


dein

zm

pe

mxae

Diesel power variable Opex + fuelGas Combined Cycle variable Opex + fuel

Anthrazite Coal variable Opex + fuelLignite Coal variable Opex + fuel



High Number of Emerging PV Markets To Take Off NowEMERGING PV MARKETS


Relevant numberof emerging

markets about totake-off


Sustainable Development in Emerging MarketsEMERGING PV MARKETS


+ Growth rate+ Annual installation+ sustainable/non-policy driven Vo

latil

e G

row

thSt

able

Gro

wth


How to Predict PV Market Development Accurately? EMERGING PV MARKETS

Sustainable historical development: Historical PV development Analysis of politically driven PV development Sustainability and voilatility of PV development

Expected PV power demand by 2050: Power demand by 2050 Shift of fossil fuel to power till 2050 PV power share of power generation Business and investment attractivness Political stability

Gammal, A., Gerlach A., Werner Ch., Masson G., 2016. Framework model for post-subsidy PV market forecast, this conference




When and how does a market take off?




When does a market take off?

Per country evaluation of PV competetivness: Fuel-parity IND Grid-parity RES Grid-parity Off-grid demand Sustainable growth PV development targets


Malta PV Capacity Development until 2050EMERGING PV MARKETS


PV Capacity by end of 2014: 33.3 MWp

883 MWp PV expected byend of 2050

2407 TWh expected 2050 power demand

1030 TWh expectedadditional power demanddue to shift of fossil power to electricity

45% PV share‚A‘ rating in businessattractivenessand politicalstability

FiT in place, but PV development totallysustainable due to fuel-parity reached <2013


Perfect Match of Methodology Prediction and RealityEMERGING PV MARKETS


Expected PV capacity byend of 2015: 53.6 MWp

Real capacity end of2015: 55.6 MWp

Methodology shows perfect match!


Malta PV Capacity Development until 2050EMERGING PV MARKETS

Gammal, A., Gerlach A., Werner Ch., Masson G., 2016. Framework model forpost-subsidy PV market forecast, this conferenceIRENA, 2015 + Vartiainen E., Masson G., Breyer Ch., 2015. PV LCOE 2015-2030


883 MWp until 2050, 1.47 billion USD InvestmentEMERGING PV MARKETS


1.47 billion USD financial investin PV till 2050

Annual maxof 124 millionUSD in 2020


Nigeria: 6 GWp till 2025, 45.5 GWp till 2050EMERGING PV MARKETS


0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

35.000

[MIL

LIO

N U

SD]

PV Investment Projection Nigeria


Annual maxof 2.7 billionUSD in 2033

45.5 GWpby 2050

Expected 2015: 68.4 MWpReal 2015: 68.1 MWp


0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

9.000

[MW

P]

PV Development Projection Ghana

Ghana: 5 billion USD expected in Invest in PV till 2025EMERGING PV MARKETS


0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

9.000

[MIL

LIO

N U

SD]

PV Investment Projection Ghana

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000 8.5 billion USD financial investin PV till 2050

Annual maxof 733 millionUSD in 2026

7.88 GWpby 2050

Real 2015: 73 MWp


0

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

[MW

P]

PV Development Projection Russia

Russia: 5 GWp till 2025, 198 GWp by 2050EMERGING PV MARKETS


0

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.000

120.000

140.000

[MIL

LIO

N U

SD]

PV Investment Projection Russia

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000


Annual maxof 10 billionUSD in 2036

198 GWpby 2050

Real 2015: 268 MWp


SummaryEMERGING PV MARKETS

+ Competitivness based projection of PV development

+ non-policy driven development

+ purely based on fuel-parity, grid-parity and sustainable development

+ Cumulative and annual prediction of PV installations until 2050

+ Per country analysis for emerging PV markets

+ Per country analysis of PV investment until 2050

+ Analysis of High-/Low-Case Scenario

Full study to be published by fall 2016

THANK YOU!

Chris Werner Energy Consulting

+49 176 [email protected]

emerging pv markets a methodology to assess pv market ... · 3 iea workshop at pvsec 2016, munich,...

Documents