emerging markets 2012 · sources: gdp per capita and estimated 2011 gdp growth: imf world economic...
TRANSCRIPT
Kazakhstan
Russia
China
NepalBhutan
Mongolia
India
Sri Lanka
Kyrgyz Republic
TajikistanTurkmenistan
Bangladesh
Cambodia
PhilippinesVietnam
Laos
PakistanIranIraq
Syria
Uzbekistan
ThailandMyanmar
Egypt
Chad Sudan
Djibouti
Afghanistan
Kenya
Namibia
Republic ofCongo
Botswana
Mozambique
Malawi
Zimbabwe
Tanzania
Mauritius
Swaziland
South AfricaLesotho
Angola
Mauritania
Colombia
Mexico
Brazil
Peru
Bolivia
Paraguay
UruguayArgentina
Chile
Malaysia
Indonesia
East Timor
Tunisia
Algeria Morocco
Zambia
Togo
Rwanda EquatorialGuineaGabon
CameroonGhana
Benin
Nigeria
Mali
Guinea Bissau GuineaBurkina Faso
Côted’Ivoire
SenegalGambia
El SalvadorCosta Rica
Belize
Guatemala
Panama
GuyanaSuriname
Ecuador
Venezuela
DominicanRepublic
DominicaTrinidad &Tobago
Jamaica
Haiti
HondurasNicaragua
Poland
Croatia
Romania
Lithuania
Bulgaria
Moldova
Albania
Serbia
Belarus
Macedonia
Bosnia-Herz.
Turkey
Ukraine
Lebanon
Azerbaijan
Armenia
Georgia
JordanSaudi Arabia
PapuaNew Guinea
Yemen
Latvia
Maldives
Seychelles
Hungary
Montenegro
Pro: Economy is maturingCon: Remains over-reliant on exports
Pro: Double-digit GDP growth Con: In�ation prompts unease
Pro: Strong investment recordCon: Economy stumbling
Pro: Investment supporting growthCon: State spending is surging
Pro: Remittances boost GDPCon: In�ation on rising trend
Pro: Huge scope for expansionCon: Labor shortage inhibits growth
Pro: Economy reboundingCon: State �nances stretched
Pro: Reforms to further boost GDPCon: Heavy reliance on oil exports
Pro: Business reforms in pipelineCon: Capacity restrains limit growth
Pro: Business-friendly governmentCon: Infrastructure under-developed
Pro: Capable economic managementCon: Global woes inhibit growth
Pro: Strong rebound expectedCon: Exports impaired by 2011 �oods
Pro: Foreign investment surgingCon: Growth is straining infrastructure
Pro: Domestic consumption boomingCon: Social welfare system still lacking
Pro: Strong growth momentum Con: Lingering corruption
Pro: OECD-leading economyCon: In�ation expected to rise
Pro: High oil prices driving growthCon: Political dissent on the risePro: Formidable domestic demand
Con: Over dependence on FDI
Pro: Ef�cient open economyCon: External demand weakening
Pro: Foreign investment magnetCon: Growth slowing sharply
Pro: Strong export growth to USCon: Currency proving unstable
Pro: Strong GDP growth resumesCon: Signs of overheating emerge
Most Competitive
Saudi ArabiaMalaysiaChinaChileThailandTunisiaPolandLithuaniaIndonesiaHungary
5.175.084.904.704.524.474.464.414.384.36
Competitiveness index
ChileUruguayBotswanaBhutanPolandDominicaMauritiusRwandaLithuaniaSeychelles
7.27.06.15.75.55.25.15.04.84.8
Corruption index
Least Corrupt GDP Growth Estimates
GhanaMongoliaTurkmenistanIraqChinaP. New GuineaLaosBhutanArgentinaIndia
13.511.59.99.79.59.08.38.18.07.8
%
Actual FDI In�owsfor 2010
ChinaBrazilRussiaSaudi ArabiaIndiaMexicoChileIndonesiaKazakhstanAngola
105,73548,43841,19428,10524,64018,67915,09513,3049,9619,942
$ mill
Sources: GDP per capita and estimated 2011 GDP growth: IMF World Economic Outlook, September 2011; Competitiveness index: The World Economic Forum, September 2011; Corruption index: Transparency International, October 2011; FDI flows: UNCTAD, November 2011Cartographic map courtesy of Istituto Geografico De Agostini
EMERGING MARKETS 2012
Sizzling: Watch out for dramatic growth and intense investor interest
Hot: Conditions are right for serious growth
Warm: Only for the brave, but pioneers will find plenty of opportunity
Tepid: Great potential but serious downsides
Cold: The risks of investing outweigh the potential rewards
GDP per head GDP growth Actual FDI FDI change Competitiveness Corruption $ % $ million % score index ALGERIA 5,001 2.86 2,291 -17.01 3.96 2.9 ANGOLA 5,061 3.68 9,942 -14.82 2.96 2.0 BENIN 756 3.77 111 -17.72 3.78 3.0 BOTSWANA 8,844 6.24 529 -8.65 4.05 6.1 BURKINA FASO 670 4.88 37 -78.34 3.25 3.0 CAMEROON 1,234 3.80 425 26.00 3.61 2.5 CHAD 920 2.45 781 69.20 2.87 2.0 CONGO - REPUBLIC OF 3,792 5.00 2,816 35.16 N/A 2.2 CÔTE D’IVOIRE 1,049 -5.84 418 9.73 3.37 2.2 DJIBOUTI 1,500 4.82 27 -73.10 N/A 3.0 EGYPT 2,922 1.22 6,386 -4.86 3.88 2.9 EQUATORIAL GUINEA 14,374 7.09 695 -57.52 N/A 1.9 GABON 10,982 5.58 170 419.07 N/A 3.0 GAMBIA 620 5.50 37 -20.96 3.84 3.5 GHANA 1,588 13.53 2,527 50.01 3.65 3.9 GUINEA-BISSAU 586 4.79 9 -36.61 N/A 2.2 KENYA 882 5.28 133 -5.33 3.82 2.2 LESOTHO 1,040 5.15 55 13.96 3.26 3.5 MALDIVES 6,499 6.49 164 45.82 N/A 2.5 MALI 796 5.28 148 35.33 3.39 2.8 MAURITANIA 1,227 5.11 14 135.59 3.20 2.4 MAURITIUS 8,520 4.20 430 67.15 4.31 5.1 MOROCCO 3,162 4.62 1,304 -33.20 4.16 3.4 MOZAMBIQUE 551 7.19 789 -11.61 3.31 2.7 NAMIBIA 6,087 3.57 858 66.08 4.00 4.4 NIGERIA 1,541 6.89 6,099 -29.49 3.45 2.4 RWANDA 585 7.00 42 -64.34 4.19 5.0 SENEGAL 1,096 4.02 237 14.29 3.70 2.9 SEYCHELLES 11,117 5.04 369 34.24 N/A 4.8 SOUTH AFRICA 1,457 5.65 1,553 -71.06 4.34 4.1 SUDAN 1,939 -0.22 1,600 -40.35 N/A 1.6 SWAZILAND 3,332 -2.06 93 41.12 3.30 3.1 TANZANIA 550 6.12 700 8.53 3.56 3.0 TOGO 511 3.83 41 -18.09 N/A 2.4 TUNISIA 4,593 0.01 1,513 -10.37 4.47 3.8 ZAMBIA 1,355 6.72 1,041 49.88 3.67 3.2 ZIMBABWE 735 6.02 105 0.38 3.33 2.2 GDP per head GDP growth Actual FDI FDI change Competitiveness Corruption $ % $ million % score index AFGHANISTAN 575 7.07 76 -59.11 N/A 1.5 ARMENIA 3,048 4.61 577 -25.75 3.89 2.6 AZERBAIJAN 7,510 0.19 563 18.98 4.31 2.4 BANGLADESH 690 6.32 913 30.44 3.73 2.7 BHUTAN 2,299 8.06 12 -20.39 N/A 5.7 CAMBODIA 912 6.71 783 45.16 3.85 2.1 CHINA 5,184 9.47 105,735 11.30 4.90 3.6 EAST TIMOR 649 7.34 280 460.07 3.35 2.4 GEORGIA 3,098 5.55 549 -16.64 3.95 4.1 INDIA 1,527 7.84 24,640 -30.88 4.30 3.1 INDONESIA 3,469 6.40 13,304 172.76 4.38 3.0 KAZAKHSTAN 10,951 6.52 9,961 -27.67 4.18 2.7 KYRGYZ REPUBLIC 970 7.00 234 23.21 3.45 2.1 LAOS 1,204 8.26 350 9.85 N/A 2.2 MALAYSIA 8,617 5.20 9,103 536.61 5.08 4.3 MONGOLIA 3,131 11.47 1,691 171.23 3.86 2.7 MYANMAR 804 5.53 756 30.72 N/A 1.5 NEPAL 644 3.48 39 1.11 3.47 2.2 PAKISTAN 1,164 2.56 2,016 -13.77 3.58 2.5 PAPUA NEW GUINEA 1,712 8.96 29 -93.18 N/A 2.2 PHILIPPINES 2,255 4.66 1,713 -12.74 4.08 2.6
SRI LANKA 2,864 6.96 478 18.22 4.33 3.3 TAJIKISTAN 862 6.00 45 183.33 3.77 2.3 THAILAND 5,281 3.54 5,813 16.82 4.52 3.4 TURKMENISTAN 4,362 9.90 2,083 -46.13 N/A 1.6 UZBEKISTAN 1,529 7.05 822 15.61 N/A 1.6 VIETNAM 1,362 5.75 8,173 7.54 4.24 2.9 GDP per head GDP growth Actual FDI FDI change Competitiveness Corruption $ % $ million % index index ALBANIA 4,131 2.50 1,097 12.00 4.06 3.1 BELARUS 6,118 4.96 1,350 -28.45 N/A 2.4 BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA 4,715 2.20 63 -74.18 3.83 3.2 BULGARIA 7,243 2.50 2,170 -35.24 4.16 3.3 CROATIA 14,529 0.76 583 -79.99 4.08 4.0 HUNGARY 14,808 1.80 2,377 16.22 4.36 4.6 LATVIA 12,226 3.96 349 271.98 4.24 4.2 LITHUANIA 13,190 5.98 629 265.66 4.41 4.8 MACEDONIA 5,012 3.05 293 45.59 4.05 3.9 MOLDOVA 2,022 7.00 199 55.59 3.89 2.9 MONTENEGRO 6,668 2.02 760 -50.21 4.27 4.0 POLAND 13,967 3.81 9,681 -29.32 4.46 5.5 ROMANIA 8,666 1.49 3,573 -26.28 4.08 3.6 RUSSIA 13,236 4.29 41,194 12.86 4.21 2.4 SERBIA 6,267 2.01 1,329 -32.18 3.88 3.3 TURKEY 10,576 6.59 9,071 7.85 4.28 4.2 UKRAINE 3,575 4.70 6,495 34.86 4.00 2.3 GDP per head GDP growth Actual FDI FDI change Competitiveness Corruption $ % $ million % score index ARGENTINA 10,640 7.99 6,337 57.75 3.99 3.0 BELIZE 4,349 2.50 97 -10.43 3.52 N/A BOLIVIA 2,246 5.00 622 47.05 3.82 2.8 BRAZIL 12,917 3.77 48,438 86.67 4.32 3.8 CHILE 13,970 6.55 15,095 17.25 4.70 7.2 COLOMBIA 6,980 4.87 6,760 -5.29 4.20 3.4 COSTA RICA 8,489 4.00 1,413 4.91 4.27 4.8 DOMINICA 6,833 0.90 31 -25.28 N/A 5.2 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 5,406 4.50 1,626 -24.92 3.73 2.6 ECUADOR 4,352 5.78 164 -48.55 3.82 2.7 EL SALVADOR 3,831 2.00 78 -78.68 3.89 3.4 GUATEMALA 3,177 2.85 687 14.47 4.00 2.7 GUYANA 3,202 5.26 188 30.00 3.73 2.5 HAITI 739 6.14 150 295.26 2.90 1.8 HONDURAS 2,105 3.46 797 52.40 3.98 2.6 JAMAICA 5,376 1.49 201 -62.84 3.76 3.3 MEXICO 10,803 3.79 18,679 21.82 4.29 3.0 NICARAGUA 1,202 3.98 508 17.00 3.61 2.5 PANAMA 8,421 7.40 2,363 33.26 4.35 3.3 PARAGUAY 3,421 6.40 419 100.62 3.53 2.2 PERU 5,614 6.25 7,328 31.42 4.21 3.4 SURINAME 7,281 5.03 180 19.05 3.67 3.0 TRINIDAD & TOBAGO 3,648 1.42 549 -22.52 4.00 3.2 URUGUAY 14,672 6.00 2,355 47.85 4.25 7.0 VENEZUELA 3,081 3.79 -1,404 54.78 3.51 1.9 GDP per head GDP growth Actual FDI FDI change Competitiveness Corruption $ % $ million % score index IRAN 6,260 2.52 3,617 19.92 4.26 2.7 IRAQ 3,306 9.65 1,426 -1.73 N/A 1.8 JORDAN 4,542 2.46 1,704 -29.89 4.19 4.5 LEBANON 10,474 1.50 4,955 3.15 3.95 2.5 SAUDI ARABIA 3,049 2.03 28,105 -12.45 5.17 4.4 SYRIA 3,050 -2.02 1,381 -3.68 3.85 2.6 YEMEN 1,460 -2.47 -329 -354.64 3.06 2.1
AFRICA
ASIA
LATIN AMERICA
MIDDLE EAST
EUROPE