emerging issues in money market funds - afp online...mm supply, commercial paper & cd update ......
TRANSCRIPT
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Emerging Issues in
Money Market Funds
Peter Crane
President
Crane Data
Haiwen Hsu
Treasurer
CTBC Bank
(formerly Chinatrust)
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2
• Current State of MMFs & Recent Trends
• MF Portfolio Strategies & Holdings
• MM Supply, CP & CD Update
• Emerging Markets Issuance – Solving the Supply Problem?
• CTBC Case Study
• MMFs in Europe, Asia & Emerging Mkts.
• MMF Regulatory Outlook
• In the News; Q&A
Emerging Issues in Money Market Funds
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Current State of Money Market Funds
• Regulatory Overhang: SEC Regs Due 2/14?
• MMF Assets $2.7 Trillion (Record was $3.9T)
– Bank Savings Almost $7.0 Trillion
• Still 25 Million Shareholders
• $4.3 Bil. in Annual Revenue? (down from $9B)
• Approx. 1/4 Share of “Cash” Markets
• Zero Yields, Attrition & Consolidation
• Growth & Pressures Overseas
3
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4
History of Money Fund Assets
4 4 4
Money Funds Are Down Almost $1.0 Trillion Over 4 Yrs (-27%), But Still at mid-’07 Levels.
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Banks (Still) Taking Trillions From MMFs
5
Money Funds Are Down $1.0T (-29.6%)
Over 4 Yrs.; MMDAs Are Up $2.4T (+53.2%)
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Rock Bottom: Ultra-Low Rate Environment
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Fund Expenses & Fee Waivers
7 7
Money Fund Revenue Estimates: $2.5 Trillion x 0.16% = $4.0 Billion (7/13); $2.4 Trillion x 0.37% = $8.8 Bil. (7/07)
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Money Fund Market Share (8/31/13)
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Types & Number of Money Funds
Minor Consolidation
& Shrinking Universe
Prime MMFs Still King
Prime Inst 31%
Prime Retail 24%
Tax-Exempt 10%
Share classes vs. portfolios
Categorization issues
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Taxable MMF Portfolio Composition
10
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MM Supply, Commercial Paper & CD Update
CD (21.13%) is #1 in Money Fund Portfolio Composition
CP outstanding peak: $2.18T (2007)
CP outstanding low point: $1.063T (2012)
YCD was dominated by Eurozone issuers (before crisis)
YCD/Non-US Financial CP new heavy-weight issuers: Japanese, Canadian, Australia
YCD/Non-US Financial CP new issuers: Singapore, and emerging markets (Chinese/Taiwanese & Chilean)
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MM Supply, Commercial Paper & CD Update
CDs Largest
Repo Volatile
– Shrinking
– Reg Pressure
Treasury & Agency Supply
CP Steady
Govt vs. Prime
VRDNs, T-E
Money Fund Portfolio Composition
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MMF Largest Portfolio Holdings & Country
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Key Emerging Market Sovereign Credit Ratings • Chile / China / Korea / Mexico / Brazil all investment grade
• Chile & China lead the pack with a ‘AA-’ sovereign credit rating
Jan-9
2
Jan-9
3
Jan-9
4
Jan-9
5
Jan-9
6
Jan-9
7
Jan-9
8
Jan-9
9
Jan-0
0
Jan-0
1
Jan-0
2
Jan-0
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Jan-0
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Jan-0
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Jan-0
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Jan-0
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Jan-0
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Jan-0
9
Jan-1
0
Jan-1
1
Jan-1
2
Sta
nd
ard
& P
oo
r's C
red
it R
atin
g S
ca
le
CHILE BRAZIL MEXICO CHINA KOREA
AAA
A
BBB
BB
B
AA
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Emerging Markets:
Solving the Supply Problem?
Issuer Type May-13 %
Bank (US) 148 10%
Banks (Eurozone) 197 14%
Banks (other Yankee) 643 45%
ABS/ABCP 89 6%
Corporates 57 4%
US (Tre, Agcy, Muni) 253 18%
Foreign SSA 46 3%
Other 4 0%
Total 1,437 100%
Sample Prime Fund Composition
Data source: JP Morgan Securities LLC
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Emerging Markets:
Solving the Supply Problem?
Issuer # Top 3 CP/CD Total Assets
Total 77 14% 666 1,055
Eurozone 15 49% 114 217
France 5 71% 64 125
Germany 5 99% 21 50
Netherlands 4 99% 28 42
Other Europe 13 42% 153 249
Norway 1 100% 16 33
Sweden 4 82% 54 81
Switzerland 2 100% 38 60
UK 6 80% 45 75
Other Regions 49 23% 399 588
Australia 6 78% 90 102
Canada 7 67% 122 150
Chile 4 100% 2 2
China 3 100% 3 3
Japan 8 71% 133 149
Singapore 3 100% 8 8
US 16 68% 42 173 Data source: JP Morgan
Sample Prime fund and Global Bank Exposure
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Sample YCD Indicative Rates
Data source: Tradition (North AME)
Data: 2013. 9.27
Rating 1-Mon 2-Mon 3-Mon 4-Mon 5-Mon 6-Mon 9-Mon 12-mon
Japan A1/P1, A/A1 0.15 0.16 0.20 0.21 0.23 0.25 - 0.36
Japan A1/P1, A/A1 0.16 0.17 0.21 0.23 0.24 0.25 - -
Japan (small) A1/P1, A/A1 0.17 0.23 0.27 0.28 0.30 - -
Taiwanese A1/P1, A/A1 0.30 0.38 0.47 - - 0.55 - -
Chinese A1/P1, A/A1 0.30 0.38 0.48 0.54 0.60 0.69 0.73 0.78
Chinese A1/P1, A/A1 0.25 0.33 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.63 - -
Chinese A2/P2, A-/A3 0.30 0.70 1.00 - - - - -
Chinese A2/P3, BBB+/Baa3 0.45 0.65 0.8 - - 0.95 - -
Chilean A1/P1, A/A1 - - - 0.20 0.21 0.23 0.28 0.34
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Sample YCD Indicative Rates
Data: 2013. 9.27
Data source: Tradition (North AME)
Rating 1-Mon 2-Mon 3-Mon 4-Mon 5-Mon 6-Mon 9-Mon 12-mon
French A1/P1, A/A1 - 0.17 0.20 0.23 0.30 0.37 0.48 0.56
French A1/P1, A/A1 0.15 0.17 0.20 0.24 0.27 0.31 0.40 0.49
French A1/P1, A/A1 0.11 0.18 0.22 0.25 0.28 0.33 0.44 0.54
French A1/P1, A/A1 - 0.18 0.22 0.25 0.28 0.31 0.43 0.53
Canadian A1/P1, A/A1 0.115 0.075 0.105 0.115 0.125 0.135 0.165 0.195
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Key Indicators Of Selected China Banks
Issuer Rating Tier 1 Capital
Ratio (%)
Total loans/deposits
(%)
Return on average
assets (%)
Agricultural Bank of
China Ltd.
A/Stable/A-1 9.7 – 2012
9.5 – 2011
57.1 – 2012
58.4 – 2011
1.3 – 2012
1.1 – 2011
Bank of China A/Stable/A-1 10.2 – 2012
10.1 – 2011
70.6 – 2012
70.9 – 2011
1.2 – 2012
1.1 – 2011
China Construction
Bank Corp.
A/Stable/A-1 11.2 – 2012
11.0 – 2011
64.0 – 2012
65.1 – 2011
1.7 – 2012
1.5 – 2011
Industrial &
Commercial Bank
of China Ltd.
A/Stable/A-1 10.4 – 2012
10.1 – 2011
63.9 – 2012
63.5 – 2011
1.5 – 2012
1.4 – 2011
20
Emerging Market Issuers Attracting MMFs
• Banco del Estado De Chile (AA-/Stable/A-1+)
• National Bank of Abu Dhabi (A+/Stable/A-1)
• Qatar National Bank (A+/Stable/A-1)
• Mubadala Development Corp (AA/Stable/A-1+)
• Export-Import Bank of Korea (A+/Stable/A-1)
• Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp (AA-/Stable/A-1+)
Additionally, emerging market issuers found in rated MMFs including
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CTBC Bank: Case Study in Funding
CTBC issues Yankee CD
since May, 2012
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CTBC Bank Yankee CD Overview
CTBC Bank Yankee CD Overview
Issuer CTBC Bank, New York Branch
Bloomberg Ticker CTCBNY
Issuer’s Rating
S&P: A-1/A, Stable
Moody’s: P-1/A2, Stable
Fitch: F1/A, Stable
Country Rating Taiwan – Moody’s: Aa3, S&P: AA-, Fitch: A+
Inception Date May 9, 2012
Currency USD
Tenor 7 days to 1 year & customized
Minimum Subscription $250,000
Distribution Brokers, Dealers & Direct
Governing Law New York
Issuing and Paying
Agent
BNY Mellon
Source: Bloomberg, CTBC, NY Branch
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Taiwan:
Compare to Maryland
Taiwan
• Area: 13,974 sq miles
• Population: 23.34 M
• GDP: $431 billion (2011)
Maryland
• Area: 10,455 sq miles
• Population: 5.885 M
• GDP: $301 billion (2011)
Source: Trading Economics & Maryland Department of Business & Economic Development
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Taiwan: GDP
Source: Trading Economics
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Taiwan
Quiz: How Big Is Taiwan’s Foreign Debt?
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Macro view - Taiwan
NPL Ratio % – Taiwanese Banking Increasing loan quality
resulted in sharp
decrease in non-
performing loan ratio
Significantly lower NPL
ratio than China, Japan,
USA and world’s
average
1.1
4.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
NPL Ratio % - Other
World
Japan
China
United States
Source: IMF, cnYES
0.62%
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Introduction of CTBC Bank
• Date of Establishment: March 14, 1966
• CTBC Bank, formerly known as Chinatrust Commercial Bank
• CTBC Bank,100% owned subsidiary of CTBC Holding, represents 91.6% & 86.9% of
CTBC Holding’s asset & net income, respectively, as of December 31,2012
• Financial Highlights – CTBC Bank (as of December 31, 2012)
– Net Income: USD $631.7 million
– Total Assets: USD $66.4 billion
– Total Number of employees: 9,900
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Introduction of CTBC Holding
• Financial highlights – CTBC Holding (as of December 31, 2012)
– Total Assets: USD $72.4 billion
– Total Number of employees: 11,408
• Ownership structure
– Foreign institutional investors’ ownership increases from 20.2% in 2001 to 36.56% in April 2013.
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Financial Performance – CTBC Holding
*NTD/USD conversion rate during the period: 29.136 ~32.86
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CTBC Bank Geographical Network
Hanoi Rep. Bangkok Rep.
Tokyo Br.
Hong Kong Br.
Kowloon Br.
CTBC Bank (Phils)
PT Bank CTBC Indonesia
New Delhi Br.
Sriperumbudur Br.
New York Br.
CTBC Bank (USA)&
Los Angeles Rep.
CTBC Bank (Canada) Beijing Rep.
Domestic Network: 147 Branches in Taiwan
Overseas Network: 68 Locations
9 Overseas Branches-NY, HK, Kowloon, Tokyo, Ho Chi Minh, New Delhi, Sriperumbudur, Singapore and Shanghai
4 Subsidiaries-CTC Bank Corp. (Canada), CTC Bank Corp. (USA), CTBC Bank(Philippines) Corp., and PT Bank CTBC Indonesia
4 Representative Offices-Beijing, Bangkok, Hanoi, Los Angeles
Singapore Br.
Ho Chi Minh City Br.
Shanghai Br.
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Worldwide & Intl MF Markets ($4.8T)
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Offshore & European Money Funds
Dublin &
Luxembourg
Approx.
$670 Billion
USD, Euro,
GBP
Market
Share
Regs: EU
Proposal,
FSB, IMMFA
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Emerging Money Fund Markets
Recent Growth of the Largest Money Fund
Markets Outside of the U.S. & Europe (ICI)
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Regulatory: SEC MMF Reform Proposal
Rule 2a-7 Amendments (2/10)
President’s Working Grp (10/10)
SEC Cancels Vote (8/12)
FSOC Issues Draft (11/12)
SEC Reform Proposal (6/13)
Comment Letters Due (9/13)
Timeline of Events
Current Proposals
Floating NAV (Prime Inst) or
Liquidity Fees/Gates (Prime)
2a-7 Tweaks, Buffer Gone
Final Rule Feb. 2014
Floating NAV Dies, Gates
Letters to Date
Predictions?
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Money Fund News; Q&A
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Contact Info
Haiwen Hsu, CFA
521 5th Avenue, 11th Floor
New York, NY 10175
212-867-5478 [email protected]
SVP, Head of Treasury
CTBC Bank
New York Branch (Formerly Chinatrust)