Emerging consumer trends - challenges for food

safety

Professor Lynn FrewerFood Safety and Consumer Behaviour

University of Wageningen, The NetherlandsLynn.Frewer@wur.nl

http://www.mcb.wur.nl/UK/Staff/Faculty/Frewer/

Consumers and food safety

Various consumer and societal trends can be identified.

These are not necessarily independent of one- another....

Consumer health

Affluent countries face a pandemic of obesity

• Healthy foods • Optimal taste• Functional foods and ingredients• Lifestyle-related illnesses increasing in emerging economies

Food shortages in many parts of the world, despite the “green revolution”

Demand on Agricultural Production Growing Much More Rapidly Than Population

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

Population Increase Calorie Increase Feed DemandIncrease

1966 to PresentPresent to 2050

Source. Professor Bruce Babcock, Iowa State University

Rat

e of

in

crea

se

Emerging zoonotic risks

Increased demand for animal proteins Increased demand on intensive production

systems? Emergence of new zoonotic diseases? (cf. BSE) Unless effective early identification systems identified,

negative impact on consumer confidence in global governance

Food Safety – consumers demand safe foods

Consumers are not willing to pay more for

“safer” foods

Smart packaging

• Microbial contamination

• Pathogen detection

Concerns about emerging diseases

• Climate change

• Lengthening food chains

• Mycotoxins

• Emerging Zoonoses

Dioxin crisis in Belgium (1999)

January 1999 a storage tank of fat at the processing plant of Verkest, Belgian animal feed producer is contaminated with industrial oil containing dioxin

February 1999 animal producer Da Brabender notices nervous system problems in its mother hens and hatching failures in their eggs

March 1999 Da Brabender send a feed sample to a Dutch laboratory for analysis. The ministry of agriculture is alerted

April 1999 lab results positive. government takes discrete action to isolate the supply chain involving Verkest

May 1999 tests reveal high levels of dioxin throughout the supply chain

29 May 1999: the story hits the news

Belgian dioxin crisis 1999Exports: sensitive

Belgian beef and poultry exports (metric tons)

(Data source: UN, COMTRADE database)

Dioxin crisis

Buffalo, Rubbish, and Mozzarella

Mozzarella is made near Naples in Italy from buffalo milk. Rubbish collection in Naples problematic Burning rubbish releases dioxins Animals not tested for disease.

Italy recalls tainted mozzarella The Italian government has recalled from sale the

mozzarella cheese linked to dioxin contamination.

BBC, March 2008

Sustainability

• More efficient production• Reduced consumer wastage• Environmental protection

• The “biofuels” crisis• Implications for food availability• Less food in supply, less safe food will be included in the supply chain

EU set to scrap

biofuels target amid

fears of food crisis

Guardian Unlimited April 2008

“The other global crisis: rush to biofuels

is driving up price of food” Independent, 12 APRIL 2008

UN urges biofuel

investment halt

BBC, 2 May 2008

Biofuels: They Could

Lead To A Future Water

Crisis?

The Daily Reckoning Aug, 2007

Go easy on biofuels until more clarity: World Bank Bangladesh independent, May 2008 Crop switch worsens global

food price crisis Guardian, April 5th, 2008

Global Water Shortages

Water becomes scarce Implications for consumer behaviour? Hand / produce washing Drinking water less safe Implications for consumer health / food production and

preparation

Internationalisation of food culture

Tracking and tracing

Consumers want improved choice

• Introduction of allergenic ingredients (e.g. tree nut, shrimp)- Where are these ingredients in longer and more

complex food chains?• Production processes (GMOs, nanotechnology, organic

production)• Food quality (e.g. country of origin)

Globalization results in lengthening food chains

Focus group results: communication methods

Focus group results: communication methods

Consumer Rejection of new traceability methodsInformation is not directly available to

consumer (bar-coding, RFID)Unhygienic, loss of naturalness of product

(label, laser printing)• “you don’t want to eat that, it is unappetizing”; “unnatural”

Unwilling to pay for associated costs

Giraurd et al, in preparation

Traceability and food Safety (FOCUS GROUP RESULTS) Consumers prefer shorter food chains Determinants of product safety

Hygiene Storage conditions Product origin

Producers and retailers responsible for Safety throughout the food chain Information provision

Consumers were positive about product recalls should a contamination incident occur. Effective implementation of safety monitoring systems Producer acknowledgement of consumer concerns

Kher et al, in preparation

ΣCHAIN

Consumers and meat production

Some additional (segmented) consumer trends

Consumer demand for free range meat productionIncreased contamination (e.g. Salmonella on

pork in the UK)Avian influenza in free range poultry

Changing demographics

Changing demographicsE.g. Europe

• More people living in single person households implies increased demand for convenience (chilled foods

• Ageing population with increased vulnerability

Clusters of Consumers and self protective behaviour

– domestic food safety

-0.3

0

0.3

0.6

0.9

Ra

sc

h S

co

re

I: Traditional family

II: Average Family (traditional)

III: Average Family

IV: Average Family

(modern)

V: Single Male

Results of hierarchical cluster analysis on Rasch

data

(Fischer, Frewer and Nauta, 2007, Risk

Analysis)

Low risk

High risk

Differences in expert and lay perceptions of effective risk management –A continuing

trend

Consumers & Experts: A Perceptual Divide

Consumers not willing to seek information

Adequate FRM and happy consumers

More acceptance of economic interests

Emphasise state and industry

Negative view - create public anxiety

Inherent in science

Poor quality of information

Continuing problems

Less acceptance of economic interests

Emphasise consumer protection

Positive view

Not acknowledged by all institutions

Krystallis et al, 2007, Health, Risk & Society

Consumers Experts

FRM Efforts

FRM Priorities

Responsibility

Media

Uncertainty

Consumer Awareness

Consumer attitudes to emerging technologies applied to food production and food safety

Do the potential technological solutions create more problems in terms of consumer acceptance?

e.g. ambivalent consumer attitudes to food irradiation in some regions of the world

Risk-Experiment: Prior AttitudesFour technologies selected based on

existing consumer attitude

Positive

Negative -2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

Conve

ntion

al

Nanot

ech

Organ

icGM

Pri

or

Att

itu

de

(cen

tere

d 9

5% c

i)

Van Dijk et al, in preparation

Developing international consumer and stakeholder

confidence

• Risk governance• (Early) risk identification • Common research agenda • International risk communication as soon as a

hazard has been identified• Equitable stakeholder and consumer participation in

the process of risk analysis / risk governance

Conclusions

Consumer trends Safety (always a priority) Quality demands Changes in food preferences Enhanced traceability Sustainability versus food security Technology in food production? Targeted risk communication to vulnerable populations International risk governance

Thank you!

Any questions?

“Long –chain fatty omega -3 fatty acids found in fatty fish and fish oils do not have a clear effect on total mortality, combined vascular events, or cancer”

Hooper et al, British Medical Journal, March 2006

Implications for ingredient labelling and health claims

…………..and uncertain risks ….

“Although a rich source of n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) that may confer multiple health benefits, some fish contain methyl mercury (MeHg), which may harm the developing fetus. U.S. government recommendations for women of childbearing age are to modify consumption of high-MeHg fish, while recommendations encourage fish consumption among the general population because of nutritional benefits”

Cohen et al, Am J Prev Med. 2005 Nov;29(4):325-34.

Communicating with consumers about variable risks ….

Integrated Risk-Benefit measures are being

introduced into food safety legislation

Life expectancy changes

Qalys - Quality adjusted life year “a year of life adjusted for its quality or its value”. A year in perfect health

is considered equal to 1.0 QALY. The value of a year in ill health would be discounted

Dalys - Disability Adjusted Life YearsThe sum of years of potential life lost due to prematuremortality and the years of productive life lost due to disability

An example of Dalys

. Positive Negative

Life expectancy

•Useful for comparing and reaching conclusions•Concrete

•Effect size too small. •Too much emphasis on health. •Not relevant.•Not relevant for younger people.•Not enough on it’s own

Qalys •Important and relevant information

•Terminology, negative measure is counterintuitive.•Complicated, difficult to understand•Not enough on it’s own.

DALY •Combination of life expectancy and quality of life is positive

•Complicated, difficult and confusing. •Too much time needed to understand. •Not useful.

Consumer views - three measures for describing the net health

impact of both risks and benefits