emergent energy futures

Emergent EnergyFutures

James Hamilton | University of Tasmania

Fac

ulty

of S

cien

ce, E

ngin

eerin

g &

Tec

hnol

ogy

Fac

ulty

of S

cien

ce, E

ngin

eerin

g &

Tec

hnol

ogy

This presentation will discuss

1. Renewable Markets

2. Energy Storage

3. Electric Vehicles

4. Early Adoption & Int. Trends

5. Emergent Energy Future’s

6. Your Industry

Fac

ulty

of S

cien

ce, E

ngin

eerin

g &

Tec

hnol

ogy

The University of Tasmania Centre for Renewable Energy Power Systems

>8 Full Time Academic Staff

>15 Full Time PhD & Masters Students

Unique Facilities include;

• Internet Connected Micro-grid Laboratory;

• Remotely Connected Research Workstations;

• Solar Research Facility; and,

• Wind Turbine Torque Transients Laboratory.

Faculty of Science, Engineering & Technology

“The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed.”William Ford Gibson

Back to the Future

NASDAQ+65%

+478%Tesla800%

600%

400%

200%

Benchmark

Stock Price Growth since 1st Jan 2013


Old World Reality•Author >> Publisher (Prepublication) >> Publisher >> Printer >>Wholesaler >>Retailer>>Consumer

New World Reality•Author <<>>Consumer

Market Transformations “the Facebook effect”


Market Transformations within our industry

Old World Reality•Generator >> Network Transmission >>Network Distribution >> Retailer >> Consumer

New World Reality•Generator <<>> Consumer


Renewable Landscape | LCOE utility-scale RE technologies, 2010 and 2014

Source: IRENA, RE Generation costs in 2014


Renewable Landscape | LCOE utility-scale technologies, H1 2014

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, LCOE H1 2014


Renewable Landscape | Projected 2020 Australian LCOE

Source: CSIRO, Australian electricity market analysis report to 2020, May 2014


Renewable Landscape | Projected 2020 Australian LCOE

Source: CSIRO, Australian electricity market analysis report to 2020, May 2014

•Renewables are approaching cost parody with conventional generation within a number of applications;

•Wind and solar PV the lead technologies;

•PV LCOE exhibits significant spread;

•Onshore wind is now one of the most competitive sources of electricity available.


Renewables ~ Solar PV

Source: NREL, PV Pricing Trends, Historical, recent and near term projections 2014 edition


Renewables ~ Solar PV Module Costs

Source: NREL, PV Pricing Trends, Historical, recent and near term projections 2014 edition


Renewables ~ Solar PV Average System Price

1. Data represent the max. and min. figures from: Bloomberg New Energy Finance (05/15/14); Cowen & Company (04/24/14); Deutsche Bank (04/23/14, 05/06/14, 05/08/14); Stifel Nicolaus (03/20/14).


Renewables ~ Solar Summary

Source Reference. Greenpeace/EREC, “Energy Revolution,” May 2014 (utility-scale only); International Energy Agency, “World Energy Outlook 2013,” November 2013 ( New Policy & 450 Scenarios for utility-scale & commercial-scale); Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Q2 2014, “PV Market Outlook” (05/15/14).

• Dramatic solar PV pricing discounts set to plateau sub $1/watt

• Major system price reductions are not expected to come from PV module price alone, as was the case in previous years.

• Analysts expect the system prices of both utility-scale and distributed systems to continue to fall in the near future

• Distributed systems are expected to reach between $1.50/W - $3.00/W by 2016

• Utility-scale systems are expected to reach between $1.30 - $1.95/W by 2016.. 1


• Analysts expect pricing in all PV markets to continue to decrease in the long-term.

• Current analyst projections are far lower than projections made in recent past

Renewables ~ Solar PV Average System Long Term Projections

Source Reference. Greenpeace/EREC, “Energy Revolution,” May 2014 (utility-scale only); International Energy Agency, “World Energy Outlook 2013,” November 2013 ( New Policy & 450 Scenarios for utility-scale & commercial-scale); Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Q2 2014, “PV Market Outlook” (05/15/14).


Renewables ~ Wind

Source: US Department of Energy, Wind Vision, 2014 market report


Renewables ~ Wind Summary

1: http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/wind-power-shown-to-slash-nem-prices-cut-network-volatility-90191

• Wind efficiency delivers discount pricing to sub $1/watt

• Major system price reductions are expected to come from capacity gains, as was the case in previous years.

• Wind has demonstrated its ability to reduce wholesale electricity prices and will continue to be a strong feature of the revised RET obligation.1


Energy in a Nutshell | Energy Storage

Source: US Department of Energy, Grid Energy Storage, December 2013


Energy Storage| Possible Jigsaw Pieces

Source: US Department of Energy, Grid Energy Storage, December 2013


Energy in a Nutshell | Li-Ion Cost

Source: Michael De Koster, Laborelec GDF Suez, Battery Cost Evolution, May 2015


Source: Electric Vehicle Initiative, Global EV Outlook, Understanding the EV Landscape to 2020, April2013


•Electric vehicles currently represent a significant price premium over ICE models;

•Charging infrastructure remains a barrier to tipping point integration;

•Large fleet and lease vehicles represent the opportunity for immediate uptake within Australia, with current pricing on parody for lease equivalent.

•No EV to grid demand generation envisaged short term although EV market to directly feed repurposed energy storage application.

Electric Vehicles


•Battery storage the game changer, awaiting price point discounts.

•Will see batteries everywhere across remote and edge of grid systems prior to widespread residential uptake.

•EV’s not a game changer in their own right, however large overlap with battery storage discount rates.

•Wind and Solar ready for medium to high level of penetration, waiting on storage solutions

International Experience


•Will consumers go off-gird predicating the network death spiral ?

•Will consumers adopt battery storage for peak shifting ?

•Will EV’s outsell ICE vehicles?

Our Energy Future


Your Industry

• When the levelised cost of solar PV falls below the sum of the wholesale price and retail marginsThen it doesn’t matter what happens to network tariffs

circa 2020

• When the levelised cost of solar PV plus battery storage falls below the evening peak priceThen batteries appear in garages and basements

circa 2025

• When the levelised cost of solar PV and batteries falls below the average cost of power to the consumerThen consumers go off-grid

circa 2030

Elon Musk

Fac

ulty

of S

cien

ce, E

ngin

eerin

g &

Tec

hnol

ogy

“I could either watch it happen,or be part of it.”

Enjoy the journey

James Hamilton email [email protected]

emergent energy futures

Engineering

faculty of science

solar pv source

australian lcoe source

world energy outlook

energy revolution

energy storage

pv market outlook

solar pv module costs