emergency planning and mgt

17/06/2010

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Prof. David AlexanderUniversity of FlorenceProf. David AlexanderUniversity of Florence

Emergency PlanningEmergency Planning

and Managementand Management

The essence of The essence of emergency emergency management:management:--The essence of The essence of emergency emergency management:management:--

To tackle pressing needs withmaximum efficiency and speed butwith scarce resources and in theabsence of necessary information

To tackle pressing needs withmaximum efficiency and speed butwith scarce resources and in theabsence of necessary information

BUT this is still a young field that lacksinternational consensus on standards, procedures,

and legal and institutional imperatives.

BUT this is still a young field that lacksinternational consensus on standards, procedures,

and legal and institutional imperatives.

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Some characteristics of large emergenciesSome characteristics of large emergencies

•• the context of the context of riskrisk and and vulnerabilityvulnerability

can transform an can transform an incidentincident into a into a disaster.disaster.

•• the context of the context of riskrisk and and vulnerabilityvulnerability

can transform an can transform an incidentincident into a into a disaster.disaster.

•• 10%10% require a require a qualitative changequalitative change

in management techniquesin management techniques

•• 10%10% require a require a qualitative changequalitative change

in management techniquesin management techniques

•• 90%90% of emergencies do of emergencies do notnot

require special proceduresrequire special procedures

•• 90%90% of emergencies do of emergencies do notnot

require special proceduresrequire special procedures

•• events that cannot be managedevents that cannot be managed

with normal resourceswith normal resources

•• events that cannot be managedevents that cannot be managed

with normal resourceswith normal resources

Local incident Local response A

Threshold of local capacity

Small regional

incidentCo-ordinated local response B

Threshold of intermunicipal capacity

Major regional

incident

Intermunicipal and

regional responseB

Threshold of regional capacity

National disaster

Intermunicipal, regional

and national responseC

Threshold of national capacity

International

catastrophe

Ditto, with more

international assistanceC

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Volontarysector:

support andintegration

Privatesector:integration

Disaster

Municipality or other local authority: emergency operations

Province, region, state, county:co-ordination, assistance

Nation: policies ofcompatibility, harmonisation

and co-ordination

International:exchange and support

HazardHazardmonitoring &monitoring &forecastingforecasting

PopulationPopulation(community)(community)protectionprotection

DisasterDisastermanagementmanagement

MajorMajorincidentincident

managementmanagement

IncidentIncidentmanagementmanagement

PoliciesPoliciesPlansPlansProceduresProceduresProtocolsProtocols

Human &Human &materialmaterialresourcesresources

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Major eventMajor eventmanagementmanagement

IncidentIncidentmanagementmanagementIncidentIncident

managementmanagement



HazardHazardforecasting,forecasting,monitoring,monitoring,etc.etc.

Plans,Plans,procedures,procedures,protocolsprotocols

Plans,Plans,procedures,procedures,protocolsprotocols

Human andHuman andmaterialmaterialresourcesresources

Human andHuman andmaterialmaterialresourcesresources

Emergency preparednessEmergency preparednesshas reached a has reached a crossroads....crossroads....

Emergency preparednessEmergency preparednesshas reached a has reached a crossroads....crossroads....

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"Homeland"Homelandsecurity"security""Homeland"Homelandsecurity"security""Homeland"Homelandsecurity"security"

"Civil"Civilcontingencies"contingencies"managementmanagement



BusinessBusinesscontinuitycontinuitymanagementmanagement

BusinessBusinesscontinuitycontinuitymanagementmanagement

BusinessBusinesscontinuitycontinuitymanagementmanagementComplexComplex

emergenciesemergenciesComplexComplex

emergenciesemergenciesComplexComplex

emergenciesemergencies

CivilCivilprotectionprotectionCivilCivil

protectionprotectionCivilCivil

protectionprotectionTheThe

securitysecurityindustryindustry

TheThesecuritysecurityindustryindustry

TheThesecuritysecurityindustryindustry

Emergenciesand disastersEmergenciesand disasters

Naturaldisasters

Techno-logical

disasters

Socialdisasters

Inten-tional

disasters

Natural AnthropogenicNatural Anthropogenic

Civildefence

Civildefence

Civildefence

"Civilcontingencies"



CivilprotectionCivilprotectionCivilprotection

"Homeland Security"

"Homeland Security"

"Homeland Security"

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Civil contingencies

ResilienceResilience

management

The risk environmentThe risk environment

BusinessBusinesscontinuitycontinuity

CivilCivilprotectionprotection

Civildefence

Counter terrorismCounter terrorism

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Terrorism is a form ofteleological disaster (i.e., piloted)

• it is potentially infinitely mutable

• designing remedies is avery expensive process

• the scenarios are highly debatable.

EXAMPLE:EXAMPLE: the Aum Shinrikyothe Aum Shinrikyoattack in the attack in the Toyko subway Toyko subway withwiththe the nerve gas nerve gas SarinSarin (1995):(1995):

EXAMPLE:EXAMPLE: the Aum Shinrikyothe Aum Shinrikyoattack in the attack in the Toyko subway Toyko subway withwiththe the nerve gas nerve gas SarinSarin (1995):(1995):

•• 12 dead12 dead•• 12 dead12 dead

•• 4900 people went to4900 people went tohospital, of whom...hospital, of whom...

•• 4900 people went to4900 people went tohospital, of whom...hospital, of whom...

•• about 1000 were genuinely injuredabout 1000 were genuinely injured•• about 1000 were genuinely injuredabout 1000 were genuinely injured

•• ...about 3900 were suffering from...about 3900 were suffering fromMIPS MIPS -- multiple ideopathic physicalmultiple ideopathic physicalsymptomssymptoms: i.e., : i.e., hypochondriahypochondria..

•• ...about 3900 were suffering from...about 3900 were suffering fromMIPS MIPS -- multiple ideopathic physicalmultiple ideopathic physicalsymptomssymptoms: i.e., : i.e., hypochondriahypochondria..

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The principal effectof terrorism on thegeneral public

could be, not any directinvolvement of peoplein an incident, butthe disruption ofnormal daily life...

The principal effectof terrorism on thegeneral public

could be, not any directinvolvement of peoplein an incident, butthe disruption ofnormal daily life...

...with huge costs to society....with huge costs to society.

Armed aggressionArmed aggressionon the part of stateson the part of statesArmed aggressionArmed aggression

on the part of stateson the part of states

Civil defenceCivil defence

Natural disastersNatural disastersNatural disastersNatural disasters

Civil protectionCivil protection

"Homeland security"(civil defence)

"Homeland security"(civil defence)Armed aggressionArmed aggressionon the part ofon the part of

groups of dissidentsgroups of dissidents

Armed aggressionArmed aggressionon the part ofon the part of

groups of dissidentsgroups of dissidents

"Generic" disasters"Generic" disasters"Generic" disasters"Generic" disasters

"Civil contingencies"(resilience)

"Civil contingencies"(resilience)

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Emergency management:Emergency management:an evolutionary approachan evolutionary approachEmergency management:Emergency management:an evolutionary approachan evolutionary approach

Proxy ParticipatoryProxy Participatory

Civil defence...............Civil protectionCivil defence...............Civil protectionCivil defence...............Civil protectionCivil defence...............Civil protection

Command and controlCommand and controlVertical chainVertical chainof commandof commandPopulation excludedPopulation excludedLaw and orderLaw and orderSecrecySecrecy

CollaborationCollaborationTask forcesTask forces

Population consultedPopulation consultedand includedand included

Problem solvingProblem solvingOpennessOpenness

OrganisationOrganisation• procedures• event scenarios• emergency plans

IntelligenceIntelligence• collection• interpretation• warning

TrainingTraining• plan dissemination• exercises

StockpilingStockpiling• equipment• supplies

SurveillanceSurveillance• automatic (CCTV)• manual (personnel)

AnalysisAnalysis• laboratory• forensic

CounterCounter--terrorism activityterrorism activityCounterCounter--terrorism activityterrorism activity

Involvement of civil protectionInvolvement of civil protectionInvolvement of civil protectionInvolvement of civil protection

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Military Civilian

Armed Civil administrationforces Volunteers (civil society)

Emergency services(army)

[residual role]Civil defence Civil protection

Command and control Co-ordinationand co-operation

Chain of command Autonomy

Military Civilian

Armed Civil administrationforces Volunteers (civil society)

Emergency services(army)

[residual role]Civil defence Civil protection

Command and control Co-ordinationand co-operation

Chain of command Autonomy

InformationInformation

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Shortage ofShortage ofinformation

Excess ofExcess ofinformation

Impact of disasterImpact of disasterImpact of disasterImpact of disaster TimeTimeTimeTime

InformationInformationcritical but critical but lackinglacking

But publicperceptionof disasterscontinues to bedominated bymyths andinaccuraciesenthusiasticallypropagated bythe mass media.

But publicperceptionof disasterscontinues to bedominated bymyths andinaccuraciesenthusiasticallypropagated bythe mass media.

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"Myth" no. 1:In general terms, disastersare truly exceptional events.

"Myth" no. 1:In general terms, disastersare truly exceptional events.

"Myth" no. 2:Disasters kill people without respectto differences of social class.

"Myth" no. 2:Disasters kill people without respectto differences of social class.

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"Myth" no. 3:Hiding under desks offers good

protection if there is an earthquake.

"Myth" no. 3:Hiding under desks offers good

protection if there is an earthquake.

"Myth" no. 4:"Myth" no. 4:Trapped people survive for many daysunder the rubble of collapsed buildings.

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0.5 1 3 12 1 2 3 4 5 7 10 15Hours Days

Survival time

100

50

0

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

pe

op

le b

rou

gh

t o

ut

ali

ve

fro

m u

nd

er

co

lla

ps

ed

bu

ilin

gs

"Myth" no. 5:Usually, the first assistance in disasteris supplied by the emergency services.

"Myth" no. 5:Usually, the first assistance in disasteris supplied by the emergency services.

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"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 6:6:When a disaster occurs there is usuallya shortage of resources and for this

reason the event cannot be managed well.

"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 6:6:When a disaster occurs there is usuallya shortage of resources and for this

reason the event cannot be managed well.

"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 7:7:When disasters occur people should

donate used clothes.

"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 7:7:When disasters occur people should

donate used clothes.

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"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 8:8:Businesses, associations and governmentsare always generous when disaster occurs.

"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 8:8:Businesses, associations and governmentsare always generous when disaster occurs.

"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 9:9:When disaster happens,people tend to panic.

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"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 10:10:People will flee in large numbers

from a disaster area.

"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 10:10:People will flee in large numbers

from a disaster area.

"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 11:11:After disaster has struck, peopletend to be dazed and apathetic.

"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 11:11:After disaster has struck, peopletend to be dazed and apathetic.

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"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 12:12:Disasters commonly give rise toDisasters commonly give rise to

spontaneous manifestations of antisocial,spontaneous manifestations of antisocial,behaviour, such as outbreaks of looting.behaviour, such as outbreaks of looting.

Instead we have theInstead we have the therapeutic communitytherapeutic communityInstead we have theInstead we have the therapeutic communitytherapeutic community

"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 13:13:Unburied dead bodies constitute ahealth hazard and will contaminate

water supplies.

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"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 14:14:Spraying bodies, rubble

and survivors with disinfectantstops the spread of disease.

"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 15:15:Disease epidemics are a very commonresult of the disruption and poor health

caused by major disasters.

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"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 16:16:Field hospitals are useful forthe treatment of the injured.

"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 17:17:Great quantities and assortments of

medicines should be sent to disaster areas.

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"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 18:18:Anthrax is a white powder.

"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 18:18:Anthrax is a white powder.

"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 19:19:Technology will save the worldTechnology will save the world

from disasters.from disasters.

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"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 20:20:Tsunamis are tidal waves.

"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 20:20:Tsunamis are tidal waves.

"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 21:21:Earthquake magnitude is alwaysmeasured on the Richter scale.

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Myth no

Myth no. . 22:

22: Major disasters

Major disasters

always happen to someone else.

always happen to someone else.

Silverpit Crater, North Sea basin

Silverpit Crater, North Sea basin

Volcanic eruption hazard in GermanyVolcanic eruption hazard in GermanyVolcanic eruption hazard in GermanyVolcanic eruption hazard in Germany

Tsunami hazard in ScotlandTsunami hazard in ScotlandTsunami hazard in ScotlandTsunami hazard in Scotland

Earthquake hazard in Belgium,Earthquake hazard in Belgium,the Irish Sea, London, central Englandthe Irish Sea, London, central England

Earthquake hazard in Belgium,Earthquake hazard in Belgium,the Irish Sea, London, central Englandthe Irish Sea, London, central England

CBRN terrorism hazard anywhereCBRN terrorism hazard anywhere..CBRN terrorism hazard anywhereCBRN terrorism hazard anywhere..

Our image of disasters is conditionedOur image of disasters is conditionedfar too much by Hollywood!far too much by Hollywood!

Our image of disasters is conditionedOur image of disasters is conditionedfar too much by Hollywood!far too much by Hollywood!

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MutualMutualantipathyantipathy

ororcollaborativecollaborativerelationship?relationship?

Representativesof the mass

media

Editorialindependenceand freedom

Sales andratings;

reputation;revenue fromadvertising

Emergencyand disaster

managers

Obligationto informthe public

Public informationcentres; warnings

and alerts;informing the

relatives of victims

Wisdom:Wisdom: abilityability toto take take decisionsdecisionson the on the basisbasis ofof principlesprinciples,,experienceexperience and and knowledgeknowledge

Knowledge:Knowledge: understanding of howunderstanding of howthings function (or should function)things function (or should function)

Information:Information: description ofdescription ofphysical and social situationsphysical and social situations

Data:Data: basic facts and statisticsbasic facts and statistics

COMMUNICATIONCOMMUNICATION

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Old ideas...Old ideas...Old ideas...Old ideas...

•• rigid structurerigid structure•• hierarchyhierarchy•• military doctrinemilitary doctrine•• secrecysecrecy•• cordoncordon•• command and controlcommand and control•• securitysecurity•• civil defence.civil defence.

•• rigid structurerigid structure•• hierarchyhierarchy•• military doctrinemilitary doctrine•• secrecysecrecy•• cordoncordon•• command and controlcommand and control•• securitysecurity•• civil defence.civil defence.

New ideas...New ideas...New ideas...New ideas...

•• planningplanning•• collaborationcollaboration•• flexible, adaptable managementflexible, adaptable management•• limited "span of control"limited "span of control"•• information sharinginformation sharing•• IT supportIT support•• accredited journalistsaccredited journalists•• involving the publicinvolving the public•• civil protection.civil protection.

•• planningplanning•• collaborationcollaboration•• flexible, adaptable managementflexible, adaptable management•• limited "span of control"limited "span of control"•• information sharinginformation sharing•• IT supportIT support•• accredited journalistsaccredited journalists•• involving the publicinvolving the public•• civil protection.civil protection.

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Some effects ofSome effects ofthe informationthe information

and communicationsand communicationstechnology revolutiontechnology revolution

Some effects ofSome effects ofthe informationthe information

and communicationsand communicationstechnology revolutiontechnology revolution

•• flatteningflattening of the chain of commandof the chain of command•• flatteningflattening of the chain of commandof the chain of command

•• IT supportIT support for disaster responsefor disaster response•• IT supportIT support for disaster responsefor disaster response

•• overloadoverload of information delivery systemsof information delivery systems•• overloadoverload of information delivery systemsof information delivery systems

•• the emergency manager must studythe emergency manager must studynew ways to new ways to informinform himself and othershimself and others..

•• the emergency manager must studythe emergency manager must studynew ways to new ways to informinform himself and othershimself and others..

•• artificiality and isolationartificiality and isolationfrom the reality on the groundfrom the reality on the ground

•• artificiality and isolationartificiality and isolationfrom the reality on the groundfrom the reality on the ground

The EmergencyThe EmergencyPlanning ProcessPlanning Process

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Emergencyenvironment

EmergencyproceduresEmergencyprocedures

Emergencyco-ordination

plan

Emergencyco-ordination

plan

SpontaneousimprovisationSpontaneousimprovisation

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ResultsOperations Operations

Procedures Procedures

Plans Plans

Policies Policies

Command systemsCommand systems•• operations centresoperations centres

•• task forcestask forces•• communicationscommunications

•• chains of commandchains of command

Command systemsCommand systems•• operations centresoperations centres

•• task forcestask forces•• communicationscommunications

•• chains of commandchains of command

supply

demand

timeDisaster

supply

demand

time

urban SAR shortage

Disaster

In emergency planningefficiency is measured in terms oflives saved and damage avoided.

shortagereduced byefficientmobilisation

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Three canons of emergency planningThree canons of emergency planningThree canons of emergency planningThree canons of emergency planning

(1)(1) aid from outside the disaster areaaid from outside the disaster areashould should reinforcereinforce, not replace, local, not replace, local

resourcesresources

(1)(1) aid from outside the disaster areaaid from outside the disaster areashould should reinforcereinforce, not replace, local, not replace, local

resourcesresources

(2)(2) the objectives are to develop a statethe objectives are to develop a stateof local of local selfself--sufficiencysufficiency and maintainand maintain

public orderpublic order

(2)(2) the objectives are to develop a statethe objectives are to develop a stateof local of local selfself--sufficiencysufficiency and maintainand maintain

public orderpublic order

(3)(3) the most efficient emergencythe most efficient emergencypreparedness ispreparedness is generic,generic,allall--hazards planninghazards planning..

(3)(3) the most efficient emergencythe most efficient emergencypreparedness ispreparedness is generic,generic,allall--hazards planninghazards planning..

QU

AN

TIT

Y

TIME

needs

local self-help

imported assistance

unmet needsReduce unmet needsReduce unmet needsReduce unmet needsReduce unmet needs

Increase local selfIncrease local self--sufficiencysufficiencyIncrease local selfIncrease local self--sufficiencysufficiency

Rationalise imported assistanceRationalise imported assistanceand make it more timelyand make it more timely

Rationalise imported assistanceRationalise imported assistanceand make it more timelyand make it more timely

The challenges of emergency planningThe challenges of emergency planning

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The emergency operations centre isThe emergency operations centre isusually the most appropriate place tousually the most appropriate place tocreate and maintain the emergency plancreate and maintain the emergency plan

The emergency operations centre isThe emergency operations centre isusually the most appropriate place tousually the most appropriate place tocreate and maintain the emergency plancreate and maintain the emergency plan

Field command postField command postField command postField command post

•• interfaceinterface between command centrebetween command centreand site of the impactand site of the impact

•• interfaceinterface between command centrebetween command centreand site of the impactand site of the impact

•• located on thelocated on the peripheryperiphery of theof themain impact zonemain impact zone

•• located on thelocated on the peripheryperiphery of theof themain impact zonemain impact zone

•• coco--ordinatesordinates emergency work on basisemergency work on basisof directions received from the EOCof directions received from the EOC..

•• coco--ordinatesordinates emergency work on basisemergency work on basisof directions received from the EOCof directions received from the EOC..

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Inner cordon

MASS CASUALTYINCIDENT

MASS CASUALTYINCIDENT

Helicopterambulance

Secondarystaging

area

Minor

injuries

treatment

Massmediapost

Incident

command

post

Mortuary

area

Control postControl postAmbulanceloading area

Triagearea

Ad

van

ce

med

ical p

ost

Primarystaging area

Medical postfor personnel

Rescueloop

Pedestrians only

Cordon Cordon III for III for traffic traffic controlcontrol

Cordon Cordon III for III for traffic traffic controlcontrol MultiMulti--agencyagency

operationsoperationscommandcommand..

MultiMulti--agencyagencyoperationsoperationscommandcommand..

PublicPublicassembly areaassembly area

PublicPublicassembly areaassembly area

Rescuers'Rescuers'assembly pointassembly pointRescuers'Rescuers'

assembly pointassembly pointPoints ofPoints ofaccess toaccess tocordonedcordonedoff areasoff areas

Points ofPoints ofaccess toaccess tocordonedcordonedoff areasoff areas

Onlyrescuers

Cordon ICordon ICordon ICordon I

Only authorisedpersonnel Cordon IICordon IICordon IICordon II

Incident

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GeneralisedGeneralised DetailedDetailed

Synthesis:abbreviated

plan

Details:Details:data,annexes,appendices

Plan:structure

SUDDEN-IMPACT DISASTER OCCURSSUDDEN-IMPACT DISASTER OCCURS

TOWN CENTRETOWN CENTRE

MUNICIPAL EMERGENCY

OPERATIONS CENTRE

- in the Town Hall

MUNICIPAL EMERGENCY

OPERATIONS CENTRE

- in the Town Hall

ASSEMBLY POINTS

AND AREAS

----- Building

----- Street

----- Square

----- Street

----- Building

----- Square

ASSEMBLY POINTS

AND AREAS

----- Building

----- Street

----- Square

----- Street

----- Building

----- Square

Immediatelythe crisis

beginsTHE MAYOR

- goes to the Emergency Operations Centre

- makes contact with the regional authorities

- sends personnel to assembly areas

THE MAYOR

- goes to the Emergency Operations Centre

- makes contact with the regional authorities

- sends personnel to assembly areas

EMERGENCY SUPPORT FUNCTION DIRECTORS

- go to the emergency operations room

EMERGENCY SUPPORT FUNCTION DIRECTORS

- go to the emergency operations room

EMERGENCY SUPPORT FUNCTION OPERATORS

- go to the emergency operations centre and

follow the orders of the Mayor

EMERGENCY SUPPORT FUNCTION OPERATORS

- go to the emergency operations centre and

follow the orders of the Mayor

MUNICIPAL WORKERS

- Group A meets in --------- Street in front of Town Hall

- Group B goes to the principal assembly area

MUNICIPAL WORKERS

- Group A meets in --------- Street in front of Town Hall

- Group B goes to the principal assembly area

VOLUNTEERS OF THE "----- GROUP"

- take control of the assembly areas

VOLUNTEERS OF THE "----- GROUP"

- take control of the assembly areas

THE POPULATION

- is led to the public assembly areas

THE POPULATION

- is led to the public assembly areas

THE MUNICIPAL POLICE FORCE

- takes control of key points in the centre of town and

directs the population to the assembly points

- sends situation reports periodically by radio

to the emergency operations centre

THE MUNICIPAL POLICE FORCE

- takes control of key points in the centre of town and

directs the population to the assembly points

- sends situation reports periodically by radio

to the emergency operations centre

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NATIONALEMERGENCY PLAN

REGIONAL ANDPROVINCIALEMERGENCY

PLAN

MUNICIPALEMERGENCY

PLAN

MUTUALASSISTANCE

PACTS

AIRPORT ANDTRAFFIC

EMERGENCYPLANS

HEALTHSYSTEM AND

HOSPITALEMERGENCY

PLANS

EMERGENCYPLANS FOR

COMMERCIALAND INDUSTRIAL

FACILITIES

EMERGENCYPLANS FORMUSEUMS,GALLERIESAND SITES

Disasterin the medical

centre

Disasterin the system

of medical

centres

Disasterin the external

environment

Disasterplanning for

the medicalcentre

Disaster

planningfor the system

of medical

centres

Disaster

planning forthe external

environment

Co-ordinatedEMS Disaster

plans

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EmergencyEmergency responseresponseplanningplanning

EmergencyEmergency responseresponseplanningplanning

ContingencyContingency planning inplanning inthe the prepre--emergencyemergency phasephase ((daysdays))

ContingencyContingency planning inplanning inthe the prepre--emergencyemergency phasephase ((daysdays))

PermanentPermanent emergencyemergency planplanPermanentPermanent emergencyemergency planplan

IncidentIncidentIncidentIncident

OperationalOperational planningplanningOperationalOperational planningplanning

ShortShort--termterm strategicstrategicplanning (planning (hourshours --> > daysdays))ShortShort--termterm strategicstrategicplanning (planning (hourshours --> > daysdays))

ShortShort--termterm tacticaltacticalplanning (planning (hourshours))

ShortShort--termterm tacticaltacticalplanning (planning (hourshours))

Recovery andRecovery andreconstructionreconstruction

planningplanning


planningplanning


planningplanning

Strategic,Strategic,tactical & operationaltactical & operational

planningplanning

Strategic,Strategic,tactical & operationaltactical & operational

planningplanning

AftermathAftermath

DisasterDisasterDisasterDisaster

MonitoringMonitoringpredictionprediction& warning& warning

MonitoringMonitoringpredictionprediction& warning& warning

Permanent emergency planPermanent emergency planPermanent emergency planPermanent emergency plan

Business continuity planBusiness continuity planBusiness continuity planBusiness continuity plan

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Likely event:Likely event:use referenceuse referencescenarioscenario

Likely event:Likely event:use referenceuse referencescenarioscenario

Planning:Planning:Planning:Planning:

Improbable event:Improbable event:use genericuse genericproceduresprocedures

Improbable event:Improbable event:use genericuse genericproceduresprocedures

consequencesat time 2consequencesat time 2

evolutionevolutionevolutionevolution

consequencesat time 1consequencesat time 1

formal evaluation of theoutcome of the scenarioformal evaluation of theoutcome of the scenario

evaluation ofthe progressof the scenario

evaluation ofthe progressof the scenario

developdevelop--mentmentof theof thescenarioscenario

developdevelop--mentmentof theof thescenarioscenarioconsequences

at time nconsequencesat time n

evolutionevolutionevolutionevolution

initialconditionsinitial

conditions

historicalanalysishistoricalanalysis

hypotheticalingredientshypotheticalingredients

referenceevent

referenceevent

timezerotimezero

ScenarioScenariomethodologymethodologyScenarioScenario

methodologymethodology

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Construction of operational

scenarios of hazard, risk, impactand emergency response

Existence of various statesof hazard and vulnerability

Census ofavailable resources

Plan of action foremergencies

Pro

ce

ss

es

of

co

ns

tan

ta

da

pta

tio

no

f th

e p

lan

Revision

ExercisingExercising Evaluation

ActivationActivation DisasterDisaster

Preparatory study

DisseminationDissemination Information

Creation andCreation andupdatingupdatingof planof plan

Stakeholders'opinions Training

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Plan

ApparentchaosApparentchaos Model

Testing

DisasterDisasterDisasterDisaster

Result

Feedbackand revision

Feedback

and revision

Evalutation

ConclusionsConclusions

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FUTUROLOGY

FUTUROLOGY

FUTUROLOGY

FUTUROLOGY

• at the world scale, one or moregreat events will cause a drasticreorganisation disaster preparedness

• at the world scale, one or moregreat events will cause a drasticreorganisation disaster preparedness

• the catalyst event may be avolcanic eruption, an earthquake, ora biological or radioactive incident.

• the catalyst event may be avolcanic eruption, an earthquake, ora biological or radioactive incident.

• losses in disaster willcontinue to increase steeply

• losses in disaster willcontinue to increase steeply

• poverty and vulnerability will defineever more closely the areas ofgreatest susceptibility to disasters

• poverty and vulnerability will defineever more closely the areas ofgreatest susceptibility to disasters

•• the job of the the job of the emergency manageremergency managerwill become more and more complexwill become more and more complex

•• the job of the the job of the emergency manageremergency managerwill become more and more complexwill become more and more complex

•• emergency planningemergency planning will havewill haveto tackle new kinds of eventto tackle new kinds of event

•• emergency planningemergency planning will havewill haveto tackle new kinds of eventto tackle new kinds of event

•• emergency managementemergency management willwillvery slowly become a professionvery slowly become a profession

•• emergency managementemergency management willwillvery slowly become a professionvery slowly become a profession

•• the level of the level of internationalinternationalparticipation participation in disasters will risein disasters will rise..

•• the level of the level of internationalinternationalparticipation participation in disasters will risein disasters will rise..

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Emergencyplanning andorganisationof securitysystems

Warning andpreparations;damagepreventionmeasures

Emergencyaction anddamagelimitationmeasures

Restoration ofbasic services

Safety andsecuritymeasures

SustainableSustainable emergencyemergency management:management:--SustainableSustainable emergencyemergency management:management:--

•• isis centredcentred uponupon the the locallocal levellevel((butbut isis harmonisedharmonised fromfrom aboveabove))

•• isis centredcentred uponupon the the locallocal levellevel((butbut isis harmonisedharmonised fromfrom aboveabove))

•• hashas the the supportsupport andandinvolvementinvolvement ofof the the populationpopulation

•• hashas the the supportsupport andandinvolvementinvolvement ofof the the populationpopulation

•• is based on is based on plansplans that are fullythat are fullydisseminated and frequently reviseddisseminated and frequently revised

•• is based on is based on plansplans that are fullythat are fullydisseminated and frequently reviseddisseminated and frequently revised

•• is a fundamental, everyis a fundamental, every--day day serviceservicefor the population and is taken for the population and is taken seriouslyseriously..

•• is a fundamental, everyis a fundamental, every--day day serviceservicefor the population and is taken for the population and is taken seriouslyseriously..

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www.terrapublishing.netwww.terrapublishing.net

Thank you for your attention!Thank you for your attention!Prof. David AlexanderProf. David Alexander

[email protected]@alice.it

emergency-planning.blogspot.comwww.slideshare.net/dealexander

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emergency-planning.blogspot.comwww.slideshare.net/dealexander

[email protected]

emergency planning and mgt

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