emergence, anticipation and multisimulation: bases for conflict simulation tuncer Ören m&snet...
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EMERGENCE, ANTICIPATION AND MULTISIMULATION:BASES FOR CONFLICT SIMULATION
TUNCER ÖRENM&SNet (McLeod Modeling and Simulation Network)SITE, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, [email protected]
FRANCESCO LONGOM&SNet (MSC-LES: Modeling & Simulation Center - Laboratory of Enterprise Solutions) University of Calabria, [email protected]
Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies
© Tuncer Ören 1
20th European Modeling & Simulation Symposium (EMSS’08)September 17 – 19, 2008
Campora S. Giovanni, Calabria, Italy
Why Simulation of Conflict Processes?
1. To understand the mechanisms of conflict (to avoid/(to induce), to manage)1. To evaluate effects of different parameters on
conflicts (to manage)2. To provide experience to (future) decision
makers to train them to manage conflicts.
Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept. 2
Hypothesis
Multisimulation is a methodology which can be appropriate for the simulation studies of: • multi-aspect systems in general, and • conflict processes and • conflict management training, in particular.
Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept3
Multisimulation is a methodology which can be appropriate for the simulation studies of: • multi-aspect systems in general, and • conflict processes and for • conflict management training, in particular.
At this early stage of the research we offer only the rationale to support the hypothesis
Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept 4
Hypothesis
Some facts about conflict processes
Based on:• Approaches to simulate conflict processes•Nature of conflict processes
Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept 5
Some facts about conflict processes
Based on:• Approaches to simulate conflict processes1.Reactive2.Deliberative 3.Anticipatory•Nature of conflict processes
Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept 6
Some facts about conflict processes
Approaches to simulate conflict processes:1.ReactiveDifferent (aspects) of the reactions based on:
Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept 7
• aspects of the conflict • severity of the conflict• personality of the affected people, of the decision makers • emotions• cultural background
Some facts about conflict processes
Approaches to simulate conflict processes:2. Deliberative Different perception(s) based on deliberations modulated by:
Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept 8
• aspects of the conflict • severity of the conflict• personality of the affected people, of the decision makers • emotions• cultural background
Some facts about conflict processes
Approaches to simulate conflict processes:3. Anticipatory (current image(s) of future)Different anticipations based on:
Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept 9
• aspects of the conflict • severity of the conflict• personality of the affected people, of the decision makers • emotions• cultural background
Based on:• Approaches to simulate conflict processes1.Reactive2.Deliberative 3.Anticipatory
Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept 10
We can say that conflict processes are multi-aspect.
Nature to conflict processes
Conflict processes are highly non-linear:f(a+b) ≠ f(a) + f(b)
Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept 11
Nature to conflict processes
Conflict processes are different than just complicated systems; they are complex systems.
Complex systems, hence conflicts have emergence.
Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept 12
Emergence ≠ appearance
Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept 13
Emergence is: "the arising of novel and coherent structures, patterns and properties during the process of self-organization of complex systems."
Nature to conflict processes
In non-linear systems:• “Similar causes can have different effects and different causes similar effects; •small changes of causes can have large effects •whereas large changes can also only result in small effects •but nonetheless it can also be the case that small causes have small effects •and large causes large effects. •Emergence is based on non-linear causality” (Arshinov & Fuchs, p. 7) Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept 14
Emerged states and emerged transitions (which can have fuzzy representations)
in a state machine
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a
b
c
dd
ef
g h
At a crossroad:
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• At a crossroad several roads to take.• Similarly, after an interruption of the simulation study, several
simulations can be performed by using different models and/or experimental conditions.
• The simulations could be sequential; however, there are advantages of making them simultaneous.
(time advantage, resource-sharing parallel studies)
Multisimulation
Multisimulation is a methodology to allow simulation of several aspects of a system simultaneously.
Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept 17
Multisimulation
Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept 18
In some aspects of social system dynamics, during a simulation, completely new conditions may emerge and accordingly, • a simulation study may need to be interrupted,• models and/or experimental conditions may need to be replaced by a new ones and then• the simulation study would resume.
• In some cases, at the update instant of the simulation study, one may want to continue with two or more models under same or different experimental conditions.
Multisimulation
Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept 19
Multisimulation can also enhancepredictive displays
(by allowing several simultaneous simulations)
Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept 20
An agent-based system may also automatically select the “best” command (input) to the
system
Why use Multisimulation for the Study of Conflict Processes ?
1. To understand the multi-aspect mechanisms of conflicts (to avoid/(to induce), to manage)
(by simulating conflict processes under reactive, deliberative, and anticipatory conditions)1. To evaluate effects of different parameters on
conflicts (to manage)2. To provide experience to (future) decision makers
to train them to manage conflicts.
Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept 21