Elvin Siew Chun Wai - Travel and Tourism

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Travel and Tourism

Travel and TourismOverview of the Travel and Tourism Industry, its importance to the global economy and the significance of civil aviation to that industry.

Travel & Tourism Data1999 and 2010High LightsGlobal Data U. S. Data

Travel & Tourism Dataand Supporting Reports for the NASA Aeronautics Study

Critique & Technical Discussion of T & T Data1993 DataCriticismsRevisionsRecent Data SystemCautions

Comparing 1994 & 1999No adequate Documentation or Definitions for 1994 Data Terms not ComparableEstimating Techniques Different

T & T DATA HISTORYWorld Travel & Tourism CouncilFirst Estimate of T & T Industry Economic Data--1993Forecasts for 1994 and 2001Immediate ObjectivesSupport Free Trade in the AirEmphasis on Air transportShow significance of the T & T Industry

Criticisms of T & T DataIndustry Generated DataLacked Documentation & MethodologyNot Comparable with Existing Economic DatabasesViewed by Others as Self-serving

Recommendations of Professionals

Rigorous Methodology Definitions and DocumentationLinks to Existing Official Economic Data BasesCredible Data Collection Entities

Resulting Data System

Most other OECD Countries Now Provide Compatible DataUN Department of Economic & Social Affairs Collects Data from Most CountriesUses Methodology & Definitions Compatible with OECD Countries

Data for the U. S.1995 Whitehouse Conference BEA to Develop Data SystemTravel & Tourism Satellite Account Completed 1998Methodology and Definitions Rigorously DocumentedIntegrated into the U. S. Input and Output AccountsI-O Factors among Industry Groups Developed

United Nations Data Collection

UN Department of Economic & Social Affairs (Information Office) and UN Tourism Organization Now Collecting Data from Most CountriesUses Methodology & Definitions Compatible with OECD Countries

Limitations of T & T SAU. S. Data Based on 1992 Business Census Assumption--1992 relationships (Input-Output) hold until next CensusI-O Factors revised after 1998 Business Census (Revisions Due Late 1999/Early 2000)

World Travel & Tourism Council1999 Forecast Of T & T Economic Impact Derived from 1998 DataProjection for 2010 is IncludedGlobal and Regional Forecasts for 1999 and Projections for 2010General Agreement on Methodology & Terms

Limitations on Newly Released Forecasts & ProjectionsAll OECD Countries Now ReportNo Data from Many Smaller Countries Regional Samples Used for Some (Latin America, Eastern Europe) E.g., Argentina and Brazil Used to Estimate Latin America Assumed Growth Rates to 2010

Key Points from Global Projection For 2010 For Travel & TourismReal Growth 3.3% per year Through 2010Economy GDP will be 11% of Global GDPEmployment will be 9%Tax Revenues at 11.7% of Total

United States Data for T & T Up to 25% of All Direct T & T Expenditures for Airfares Largest Single ItemT & T GDP $1,067 Billion in 1999 Japan next highest at $389 B.T & T GDP Projected at $1.8 Trillion by 2010

U. S. Employment & Government SpendingT & T Economy accounts for 17.5 Million U.S. jobs in 1999 (13.2%) 20.2 Million U.S. Jobs Expected in 2010 (13.5%)Governments spent $52.2 Billion for T & T 1999 By 2010 Projected to reach $85 Billion

Direct & Indirect Economic Factors

Factors for US Air Transportation Direct & Indirect Requirements:Per $ of Air Transportation ServicePrimary Ind. (mfg) = .35Transportation = 1.17Services = .47Total = 1.99The Direct Impact is .99 or approx. $1 to $1: Indirect to Direct

Travel & Tourism FactorsDirect Products & Services Required per $1 expended for Travel & Tourism in the U. S.Air fares .25Lodging .16Meals, etc .14Shopping .12All Other .34Total $1.00

Travel and Tourism Demand Includes Personal Consumption (Durables, Non-durables, Services)Business Travel (Corporate & Government)Visitor Exports Government ExpendituresCapital InvestmentNon-visitor Exports (World Tourism)

Industry Perspective of the T & T Satellite AccountCaptures all economic activity related to persons traveling to and staying in places outside their usual environment.For purposes of Satellite Accounting the optimal aggregated measurement is best determined from the demand point of viewIndustry prefers the T & T Demand measure (largest measure of activity)

Gross Domestic Product for T & TGDP of Tourism Industries (Direct and Indirect GDP for Tourism Consumption)Imports by Tourist IndustriesEmployment by Tourist Industries

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