elements of decision support - pdi 2017 – asmc pdi...

“Making the Most of Our Dollars and Sense”

Elements of

Decision

Support

Making the Most of Our Dollars and Sense 2

Yogi Berra


Agenda

Why Decision Support?

Elements of Decision Support

DS Roles

Future

Making the Most of Our Dollars and Sense

Defining Decision Support

How would you define DS?

Commercial Definitions

• “…a methodology and set of probabilistic frameworks for

facilitating high quality, logical discussions which illuminate

difficult decisions and lead to clear and compelling action by

the decision maker.” David Skinner, Introduction to Decision Analysis

• “The process of filtering, optimizing, and organizing mined

information to support decision making.” McGraw-Hill Science &

Technology Dictionary

4


Air Force FM Definition

A process that enables decision makers to

make informed decisions that better utilize

resources and improve mission effectiveness

5

Identify

Analyze

Alternatives

Evaluate

Recommend

Choose

Implement

Evaluate


DS Examples

6

Doing Now

Community Center

Dorm

Generic Facility Project

Doing But Can Improve

Gate Ops

Bowling Alley Changes

Marina

Library

Travel Card

NAF Vehicles

E Readers

Potential Areas

ID Card Issuance

Marquees

TDY/Mil Pay Transactions

Overhire Request

Finance Weekly Training

Simulators vs. Jets

Crowded Gym (CC tasking)

Failing PT Test

Bad OPR Rate

DUIs

Write down 3-5 examples


How Does it Work?

Includes creative thinking

Analytically based

• Quantitative

• Qualitative

Documents analysis to avoid future rework

Various processes exist

End result is an informed decision

7


When is DS Accomplished?

Before the decision is made

Done at all levels of an organization

For all decisions (scalable)

Continuous process

8

Decision

Support

Decision

Making


Tailoring the Analysis

Don’t always have time/need for a big analysis

Not a one size fits all tool

Match the level of effort to the decision required

Variety of ways

9


Agenda

Why Decision Support


DS Roles

Future


Why a Process?

Provides a standard framework

• Ensures we don't forget a step

• Allows everyone to use the same steps

Helps keep us focused

Not a checklist

11

Multiple versions exist


AF 8-Step Process

12


Step 1: Identify the Issue

Root cause

• Objective statement

13

“If I had an hour to solve a

problem and my life

depended on the solution,

I would spend the first 55

minutes determining the

proper question to ask, for

once I know the proper

question, I could solve the

problem in less than five

minutes.”


Step 1: Identify the Issue

Root cause

• Objective statement

Identify the decision maker

Make sure everyone understands the problem

• We all frame issues differently

• Influenced by our

Assumptions Goals Education

Experience Expectations Prejudices

14


Customer Service Example

Is there a problem with wait times?

Observe and interview

Talk to three members of the queue

• Retiree

• Operations Group Major

• NCOIC of FSS

15


Step 2: Analyze the Issue

Gather background data

16

History CausesOpinions

Get different perspectives

Determine facts and assumptions

Determine evaluation criteria

What is known What is uncertain

Costs

Feasibility

Benefits

Risk Resources

Time

Different

criteria yield

different

results

Customers

Custodians

Employees

Managers

Suppliers

Competitors

Public


Printers/Copiers Example

Background

• What do we have/need

• Multifunction vs. single

• Usage

• One unit or base-wide

• Supplies

• Space/layout

Viewpoints

• Future users

• Suppliers

• Comm

• Current users

Evaluation Criteria• Reliability/availability

• Cost: investment,

maintenance, supplies

17


Step 3: Develop Alternatives

Potential solutions for the problem

Want a range of possibilities

• Creative and critical thinking

Get outsiders involved, experts and novices

• Fresh ideas

• Different perspective

• Challenge the norm

Benchmarking

• See what other organizations are doing

18


Fitness Center Example

Status Quo

Renovation

Addition

New Construction

Expanded Hours

Stagger Unit Times

Annex

Unit Exercise Space

Outdoor Space

Contract Out

Limit Authorized Personnel

19


Step 4: Evaluate Alternatives

Gather necessary data

Look at the alternatives from different angles

Perform analysis

Use evaluation criteria determined in Step 2

Summarize results

20


How to Relieve Gate Congestion?

Must make a recommendation

Feasible RecommendInitial

InvestmentNPV Benefit Score

Cost/Benefit

Ratio

Yes No $0 $282,048,604 14.9 $18,993,172

Yes No $0 $27,818,333 26.9 $1,034,139

Yes No $0 $66,021,931 23.7 $2,785,735

Yes No $195,140 $57,366,070 26.4 $2,172,957

Yes Yes $0 $25,210,987 29.8 $846,006

Alternative

Status Quo

Military Augmentation

AWS / Telework

Use Exit Lane

Increase Contractors

Alternative

Wait Time

(min)

# Military

Augmentation

# Addt'l

Contractors

Investment

Personnel

Costs

Addt'l

Guard

Costs

Status Quo 30.32 0 0 - $370M -

Military Augmentation 2.95 2 0 - $36M $0.5M

AWS / Telework 7.33 0 0 - $87M -

Use Exit Lane 6.07 0 1 $0.2M $74M $0.9M

Increase Contractors 2.55 0 2 - $31M $1.9M


Step 6: Make Decision

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I agree with the

recommendation,

go ahead and start

implementation.

I like Alternative 4.

Update the

implementation

plan for this

alternative and let

me review before

pressing forward.


Step 7: Implement

Actions that need to be taken

Captured throughout the analysis

23

How to get from A to B

Risk

mitigationCommunication

Training Funding

planSchedule


Schedule Example

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Planning Schedule – Combined Air Show

Action When POC

Appoint Air Show Director Spring 2013 Wing CC

Appoint Air Show Staff Summer 2013 Air Show Director

Contact Thunderbirds August 2013 MAJCOM /PA

Emergency/Safety/Security Meetings 2014 - Ongoing Air Show Committee

Establish Plans/Procedures Spring/Summer 2014 Air Show Committee

Air Show August 2014 Air Boss


Step 8: Evaluate

Determine if issue was fixed/improved

Evaluate during and after implementation

Create performance metrics

Ask

• Are people being trained?

• Is the change going as expected?

• Is the new way working?

25

ADJUST AS NECESSARY


AF 8-Step Process

26


Agenda



DS Roles

Future


Roles in DS

Multiple players

Decision Maker (DM)

Functional

Subject Matter Expert (SME)

FM Leadership

FM Analyst

28

All have different perspectives/responsibilities


Decision Maker

Knows overall mission

Sets scope, timeline, and evaluation criteria

May not have details

Often lacks time to offer detailed guidance

29


Functional

Responsible for execution

Often has resources to complete study

Biased to their scope

May not have “big picture”

30


Subject Matter Experts

Detailed knowledge of their process

Critical for accurate analysis

May not be directly affected by decision

31


FM Leadership

Commander’s trusted advisor

Link to DM and decision forums

• Corporate boards

• Staff meetings

• Commander to Commander discussions

Limited time to conduct decision analysis

Must coordinate FMs involvement in DS

32


FM Analyst

Includes FMA staff and full time RAs

Primary coordinator/facilitator of DS

• Works larger projects for Comptroller

• Multiple smaller opportunities

Networks with SMEs and functionals

33

Engine that makes DS run


Resource Management Team

34

Wing CC

OG

RCM

RA

SME

MXG MSG MDG

CPTS

Analyst

Decision Makers

Decision Support


Agenda



DS Roles

Future


Why Change?

Resources are increasingly scarce

• “…the Department of Defense cannot expect America’s

elected representatives to approve budget increases each

year unless we…make every dollar count.”

-Secretary Gates, Aug 2010

Continuing budget cuts

Analysts are in survival mode

36

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Haven’t We Been Doing DS?

Not a new idea

• Structure and roles have evolved over time

• Some changes have had more success than others

This effort parallels OSD and OMB guidance

Adoption is currently sporadic

• Some do this well

• Most do some of this

• A few don’t want to/are busy with other things

Class will not solve everything

• Exposure to all

• Adoption based on local climate/individual interest

37


Getting Started

FM involvement should be more proactive

Get training

Start small

Work with the functionals

Learn from each experience

Move beyond wanting to use a checklist or template

38


Continuous Learning

Not a one-time training effort and back to business

as usual

Multiple efforts occurring in parallel

• Senior FM leaders in the Air Force

• Wing CPTS and FMA training

• Analyst training

More than training

• Identify opportunities to implement

• Personal reading/research

39


Why Learn?

Learning is continuous

Things evolve

• IT capability

• FM’s role

• Your career (promotions/new jobs)

Basic FM courses have changed over time

• What you took X years ago is not today’s course

Keeps your mind sharp

40


Get in the decision making loop

Thinking is critical throughout the process

Tailor the analysis to the time available and

the decision being made

Use the 8-step process as a guide

Requires the support of many players

Summary

“Making the Most of Our Dollars and Sense”

QUESTIONS?

[email protected]

(720) 847-2100

DSN: 847-2100