electricity & water demandforecast 2009 - 2030
DESCRIPTION
Electricity & Water Demand Forecast 2009 - 2030TRANSCRIPT
Mr Keith MillerDirector of Planning & Studies Directorate
Abu Dhabi Water and Electricity Company(ADWEC)
Thursday 30th April 2009
Telephone: +971 (2) 694 3816 Fax: +971 (2) 642 [email protected] www.adwec.ae
ADWEC ADWEC (Winter 2008 / 2009)
Electricity & Water DemandElectricity & Water DemandForecast 2009 - 2030Forecast 2009 - 2030
Presentation OverviewPresentation OverviewPurpose of presentation :
• Present ADWEC’s 2009 - 2030 demand forecasts
The ADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 Demand Forecast was completed in April 2009.
Based on available data in late 2008 / early 2009.
Thus all 2009 data shown in this presentation are forecasts not actuals.
Higher demand creates a need for more new IWPP capacity.
ADWEC must purchase additional IWPP capacity to satisfy demand increases.
Scope of presentation :
• Introduction• ADWEC Electricity Demand Forecast 2009 – 2030• ADWEC Water Demand Forecast 2009 – 2030• Summary
• Annex: ADWEC Planning Process
IntroductionIntroduction
Within the Emirate of Abu Dhabi:
ADWEC is the Single Buyer and Seller of electricity and water.
ADWEC is responsible inter alia for :
• Electricity & Water Demand Forecasting. • Electricity & Water Capacity Planning.• Contracting of new IWPP capacity and BST preparation.• Contracting for gas / fuel supply.• Financial Settlement
ADWEC’s legal Demand Forecasting and Capacity Planningduties are fulfilled via annual :
• Electricity & Water Demand Forecasts.
• Statement of Future Capacity Requirements.
ADWEC and Law Number 2 of 1998ADWEC and Law Number 2 of 1998
Article 30 of Law Number 2 of 1998Article 30 of Law Number 2 of 1998
Also requires ADWEC to
‘ensure that, at all times, all reasonable demands for water and electricity in the Emirate are satisfied’.
To satisfy Law Number 2’s requirements ADWEC preparesannual forecasts of electricity and water demand.
ADWEC’s Demand Forecasts are used to prepare :
• ADWEC Statement of Future Capacity Requirements
• TRANSCO 5 Year Planning Statement
• Bulk Supply Tariff, ADWEA Budget and Other Planning.
1. Global Financial Crisis (GFC)When this forecast was being prepared in late 2008 / early 2009 the full impact of the GFC on ADWEC’s demand forecast was not fully known.
Demand forecast based on available information in late 2008 / early 2009 of impact of GFC.
ADWEC Winter 2009 / 2010 demand forecast will fully reflect impact of GFC on electricity / water demand.
2. Inclusion of significant additional exports to Northern Emirates.
3. Inclusion of significant additional ADNOC electricity demands.
4. Release of UPC’s Plan Abu Dhabi 2030 in September 2007.
5. Releasing of surplus oil revenues for major infrastructuredevelopments and industrial expansion (e.g. KPIZ / Zonescorp).
6. 6. Changes in land ownership laws during 2005.
Key Recent Demand DevelopmentsKey Recent Demand Developments
ADWECADWECElectricity Demand ForecastsElectricity Demand Forecasts
2009 - 20302009 - 2030
ADWEC Global & System Electricity Peak Demand ForecastsADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 Demand Forecast (Gross MW)
6,620
7,967
9,524
11,346
13,787
15,432
17,019
18,38219,290
20,05620,807
21,605
22,96223,664
24,33525,074
25,937
27,00227,618
28,21228,844
29,48730,192
26,878
23,554
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000
10,00011,00012,00013,00014,00015,00016,00017,00018,00019,00020,00021,00022,00023,00024,00025,00026,00027,00028,00029,00030,00031,00032,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Global Demand (Winter 2008 / 2009)
Emirate of Abu Dhabi System (Winter 2008 / 2009)
Global Demand Forecast (Winter 2007 / 2008) (Diversified)
Emirate of Abu Dhabi System (Winter 2007 / 2008)
Global Demand = Emirate of Abu Dhabi System + Northern Emirates Supply
ADWEC Regional Electricity Peak Demand ForecastsADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 Demand Forecast (Gross MW)
5,616
6,542
7,602
9,424
10,955
12,426
13,863
15,069
15,976
16,742
17,493
18,291
19,64820,350
21,021
21,760
22,623
23,68824,304
24,89925,530
26,17326,878
6,620
7,967
9,524
11,346
13,787
15,432
17,019
18,38219,290
20,05620,807
21,605
22,96223,664
24,33525,074
25,937
27,00227,618
28,21228,844
29,48730,192
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000
10,00011,00012,00013,00014,00015,00016,00017,00018,00019,00020,00021,00022,00023,00024,00025,00026,00027,00028,00029,00030,00031,00032,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Northern Emirates Supply
Abu Dhabi
Al Ain
Western Region
Global Demand
Emirate of Abu Dhabi System
NorthernEmirates Supply
Abu Dhabi Region
Al Ain
Western Region
Northern Emirates Supply includes electricity used for auxiliaries and pumping etc in addition to FEWA / FE(C) / SEWA demands etc.
Global Demand = Emirate of Abu Dhabi System + Northern Emirates Supply
ADWEC Global Electricity Peak Demand Forecast by SectorADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 Demand Forecast (Gross MW)
5,616
6,542
7,602
9,424
10,955
12,426
13,863
15,069
15,976
16,742
17,493
18,291
19,64820,350
21,021
21,760
22,623
23,68824,304
24,89925,530
26,17326,878
7,967
9,524
11,346
13,787
15,432
17,019
18,38219,290
20,05620,807
21,605
22,96223,664
24,33525,074
25,937
27,00227,618
28,21228,844
29,48730,192
6,620
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000
10,00011,00012,00013,00014,00015,00016,00017,00018,00019,00020,00021,00022,00023,00024,00025,00026,00027,00028,00029,00030,00031,00032,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Northern Emirates Supply (including auxiliaries, losses & pumping etc)
Residential / Commercial Mega Projects (including Workers Camps)
Industry
ADNOC
Auxilairies (Emirate of Abu Dhabi)
Non-Mega Projects
Global Demand (including Diversity Factor)
Emirate of Abu Dhabi System
Non-Mega Projects
Auxiliaries
ADNOC
Industry
NorthernEmirates Supply
Residential / CommercialMega Projects
Northern Emirates Supply includes electricity used for auxiliaries and pumping etc in addition to FEWA / FE(C) / SEWA demands etc.
ADWEC Northern Emirates Electricity Peak Exports Forecast ADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 Demand Forecast (MW)
758 8001,000
1,300
2,0662,201
2,3462,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500
120
250
300
450
450
450
450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450
350
350
282
1,600 1,600
2,516
2,651
2,796
2,950 2,950 2,950 2,950 2,950 2,950 2,950 2,950 2,950 2,950 2,950 2,950 2,950 2,950 2,950 2,950
854
1,270
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
SEWA
FE(C)
FEWA
ADWEC's Total Northern Emirates Exports
Excludes transmission losses, auxiliaries, pumping demands etc that are also met by ADWEC capacity.Note that the SEWA and FEWA 2008 peaks were separated by several months and so are not cumulative.
(2009 - 2030 Sales Contracts Peaks)
Actual2008
Maxima
ADNOC Peak Electricity Imports from ADWECADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 Demand Forecast (MW)
674 678740
1,096
1,514 1,4901,554 1,581 1,592 1,596 1,613
1,6771,744 1,771 1,781 1,804
1,863 1,903 1,945 1,988 2,032 2,077
278340
1,161
1,626
2,009
2,523
2,8922,954 2,965 2,970 3,007
3,070 3,070 3,070 3,070 3,070 3,070 3,070 3,070 3,070 3,070 3,070
3,078
3,528
3,6683,745 3,745 3,745 3,745 3,745 3,745 3,745 3,745 3,745 3,745 3,745
340 415
1,416
1,983
2,450
3,6233,6173,603
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
2,750
3,000
3,250
3,500
3,750
4,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Example Auxiliaries (approx 4%)
Example Transmission Losses 2%
TAKREER
ADCO / GASCO
Example Required Capacity (approx 15% margin)
Total ADNOC Power Import from ADWEC
Total ADNOC Power Import from ADWEC Winter 2007 / 2008 Forecast
ADCO / GASCO
TAKREER
ADWEC Industrial Electricity Peak Demand ForecastADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 Demand Forecast (MW)
356
655
1,447
1,920
2,224
2,687
3,081
4,5994,715
4,880
5,109
5,439
5,927 5,982 5,999 6,016 6,034 6,083
2,233
2,526
3,4213,510
3,608
3,970 4,044 4,121 4,2024,286
4,3734,464
4,5594,658 4,658 4,658
3,933
3,573
3,347
971
3,8363,717
2,903
1,206
165
582
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Winter 2008 / 2009 Demand Forecast
Winter 2007 / 2008 Demand Forecast
Industrial Demand includes KPIZ, ZonesCorp & Al Waha Land etc, but excludes ADNOC.
Excludes Distribtution & Transmission Losses and Auxiliaries
ADWEC Final Consumption Electricity Peak Demand Forecast (MW)ADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 versus Winter 2007 / 2008 Demand Forecasts
-729-591
-215
-507
-145
273
460
876
1,183
1,414
1,757
2,4542,599
2,739
2,918
3,181
3,563 3,541 3,479 3,439 3,4843,562
-1,400
-1,200
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
3,000
3,200
3,400
3,600
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Worker Camps
Non-Mega Projects
Residential / Commercial Mega Projects
ADNOC
Industry
Total Final Consumption
Emirate of Abu Dhabi
Excludes Distribution & Transmission Losses and Auxiliaries
ADWEC Regional Electricity Peak Demand Forecasts (MW) ADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 versus Winter 2007 / 2008 Demand Forecasts
-1,250
-1,000
-750
-500
-250
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Abu Dhabi Region
Al Ain Region
Western Region
Total System (Pre-Diversity)
Includes Distribution & Transmission Losses and Auxiliaries
ADWEC Regional Final Consumption Electricity Peak Demand ForecastADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 v 2007 / 2008 Demand Forecasts (MW)
-729-591
-215
-507
-145
273
460
876
1,183
1,414
1,757
2,4542,599
2,739
2,918
3,181
3,563 3,541 3,479 3,439 3,4843,562
-1,400
-1,200
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
3,000
3,200
3,400
3,600
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Western Region
Al Ain Region
Abu Dhabi Region
Total Final Consumption
Excludes Distribution & Transmission Losses and Auxiliaries
Emirate of Abu Dhabi
ADWEC Cumulative Change in Electricity Peak Demand Forecast ADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 Demand Forecast (MW)
502 585 721 706 676 643 688 694 742 683 746 804 881 967 1,059 1,157 1,260 1,361 1,456 1,556 1,662
2,802 2,864 2,875 2,880 2,980 2,980 2,980 2,980 2,980 2,980 2,980 2,980 2,980
2,6022,996 3,262 3,488
4,514 4,630 4,795 5,0245,842 5,897 5,914 5,931
5,998
2,2132,540
2,9433,327
4,1534,595
4,9555,294
5,9966,385
6,7927,239
8,162
234
256
420
428
428
428
428
428
428
428
428
428
428
428
428
428
428
428
428
428
428
2,9802,980
2,9172,433
1,5361,071
1,919
888
5,949
5,354
3,848
2,139
1,362
887
1,835
887
7,689
5,637
3,708
1,894
709
886
1,360
709966
2,043
3,895
5,451
6,947
8,407
9,633
10,555
11,333
12,097
12,908
14,287
15,000
15,683
16,434
17,311
18,393
19,019
19,623
20,265
20,919
21,635
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
19,000
20,000
21,000
22,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Transmission Losses (2%)
Distribution Losses (8%)
Worker Camps
Residential / Commercial Mega Projects
Industry
ADNOC
Auxiliaries
Non-Mega Projects
Total System (Undiversified)
Demonstrates that 70% - 80% of increase in Emirate of Abu Dhabi's demand comes from Industry, ADNOC & Residential / Commercial Mega Projects
Emirate of Abu Dhabi
New Residential / Commercial (Electricity) Mega Projects ADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 Demand Forecast (Peak MW)
0 6 20
101145
203
256
326
397
468
538
609
680
751784
817850
883917
950983
1,016
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Nations Towers
Lagoon Club
Al Bateen Park
Motor World
Baniyas shopping Mall
Hydra Village
Capital District
Al Wathba Development
Total
ADWECADWECWater Demand ForecastsWater Demand Forecasts
2009 - 20302009 - 2030
Key Water IssuesKey Water Issues (i)(i)
• Constrained versus Unconstrained ForecastsConstrained versus Unconstrained Forecasts
Water network constraints limit the amount of water than can be delivered toter network constraints limit the amount of water than can be delivered to customers. customers.
Currently not all of the water desalination capacity can be fully utilised because of Currently not all of the water desalination capacity can be fully utilised because of water network constraints. water network constraints.
Water demand is by definition unconstrained, i.e. how much water consumers Water demand is by definition unconstrained, i.e. how much water consumers would like to consume. would like to consume.
Water network constraints limits the amount of water than customers can consume.Water network constraints limits the amount of water than customers can consume.
ADWEC prepares two water demand forecasts:ADWEC prepares two water demand forecasts:
1. Constrained Demand Forecast (including impact of transmission constraints)1. Constrained Demand Forecast (including impact of transmission constraints) 2. Unconstrained Demand Forecast (assuming no transmission constraints). 2. Unconstrained Demand Forecast (assuming no transmission constraints).
Until 2012 Constrained Demand Forecast < Unconstrained Demand Forecast Until 2012 Constrained Demand Forecast < Unconstrained Demand Forecast
2012-2030 Constrained Demand Forecast = Unconstrained Demand Forecast 2012-2030 Constrained Demand Forecast = Unconstrained Demand Forecast
Key Water IssuesKey Water Issues (ii)• Removal of Water Network ConstraintsRemoval of Water Network Constraints TRANSCO’s water network constraints are assumed to be fully removed by 2012.TRANSCO’s water network constraints are assumed to be fully removed by 2012.
TRANSCO’s water network constraints primarily reduce the amount of water thatTRANSCO’s water network constraints primarily reduce the amount of water that can be supplied to Al Ain region (AADC). can be supplied to Al Ain region (AADC).
The removal of TRANSCO’s network constraints will enable more water to beThe removal of TRANSCO’s network constraints will enable more water to be delivered to the Al Ain region. delivered to the Al Ain region.
• New Short Term Demands Substantial new water demands notified to ADWEC since March 2008.Substantial new water demands notified to ADWEC since March 2008.
ADWEC Constrained Mean Regional Water Peak Demand ForecastsADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 Demand Forecast (Gross MIGD)
587617
683711
887
928
966991
1,0111,032
1,0541,073
1,0991,123
1,1451,165
1,1851,204
1,2211,238
1,2551,272
1,290
614649
729
956997
1,0361,061
1,0811,102
1,1241,144
1,1701,194
1,2161,237
1,2561,276 1,293 1,310 1,328 1,345 1,362
758
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Auxilliaries
Northern Emirates Supply
Abu Dhabi
Al Ain
Western Region
Global Demand
Emirate of Abu Dhabi System(excluding Auxiliaries)
Abu Dhabi
Al Ain
Western Region
Global Demand = Emirate of Abu Dhabi System + Northern Emirates Supply
ADWEC Mean Global Water Peak Demand Forecasts (Gross MIGD)ADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 versus 2007 / 2008 Demand Forecasts
1 19
-9-51
103 106 97 89 86 83 79 86 90 92 94 96 102 107 110 113 119 11795
956997
1,0361,061
1,0811,102
1,124 1,1441,170
1,1941,216
1,237 1,256 1,276 1,293 1,310 1,328 1,345 1,362
613 630
738
861894
930964
9921,016
1,0411,065 1,084
1,1041,124 1,143 1,160 1,174 1,186 1,200 1,215 1,226
876
823
684 758649614 729
742791
828
705809
1,245
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Change in Constrained Global Demand Forecast
Unconstrained Winter 2008 / 2009 Global Demand Forecast
Constrained Winter 2008 / 2009 Global Demand Forecast
Unconstrained Winter 2007 / 2008 Demand Forecast
Constrained Winter 2007 / 2008 Global Demand Forecast
Global Demand = Emirate of Abu Dhabi System + Northern Emirates Supply
ADWEC Constrained Mean Water Peak Demand ForecastADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 versus 2007 / 2008 Demand Forecast (MIGD)
2025
35
4652
-49
-98
11 86 411 11
1910 10
30 30 30
-13
8795 98
-3
-59
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Abu Dhabi Region
Al Ain Region
Western Region
Northern Emirates
Global excluding Auxiliaries
ADWEC Northern Emirates Peak Water Exports Forecast Excluding Auxilliaries ADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 Demand Forecast (MIGD)
10 10 10 10
30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
10 10
10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
57
7 7
7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
7
9
13 13
13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
22
30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
22
26
40 40
60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60
20
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
High Priority Newly Notified Demands
SEWA
FE(C)
FEWA
ADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 Northern Emirates Forecast
ADWEC Winter 2007/2008 Northern Emirates Forecast
In 2008 Maximum Northern Emirates Exports = 22 MIGDContribution to 2008 Global Demand at time of Peak = 20 MIGD
ADWEC Constrained Industrial Water Peak Demand ForecastADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 Demand Forecast (MIGD)
40
47
53
59
64
7580
8590
9397
100
107110
112114 116 117 118 120
2933
38
48
55
61
67
73
79
85
111
117121
124128
132135
138140
25
105
102
25
92
104
98
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
ADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 Demand Forecast
ADWEC Winter 2007 / 2008 Demand Forecast
Industrial Demand includes KPIZ, ZonesCorp, Al Waha Land & ADNOC
The difference between the ADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 and Winter 2007 / 2008 Demand Forecasts in the initial years is due to the increase in KPIZ demands and the new water demands of (Al Waha Land).
After 2020, the ADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 Demand Forecast excludes demands by Baynounah Industrial City that were included in the ADWEC Winter 2007 / 2008 Demand Forecast.
ADWEC Constrained Mean Water Peak Demand ForecastADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 versus 2007 / 2008 Demand Forecasts (MIGD)
-8
19
-13
-59
8795 98
8880
76 7370
7682 85 86
9095
101104 106
112 112
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Northern Emirates
Al Ain Region
Western Region
Abu Dhabi Region
Global excluding Auxiliaries
Includes Losses but excluding Auxiliaries.
Note: The Winter 2008 / 2009 Demand Forecast uses within Region Patterning, which wasn't used in the Winter 2007 / 2008 Demand Forecast, which Ceteris Paribus lowers each Region's total.Summing individual Regional totals to obtain Abu Dhabi Emirate therefore less inaccurate than before, however still inaccurate as some diversity will exist between Regions. Note conclusion is that these regional changes between the two demand forecasts is not comparable.
ADWEC Constrained Mean Global Water Peak Demand Forecast by SectorADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 Demand Forecast (Gross MIGD)
614649
729758
956997
10361061 1081 1102
1124 11441170
11941216 1237 1256 1276 1293 1310 1328 1345 1362
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Total Auxiliaries
Northern Emirates
Agricultural
Shabiat
Villas
Domestic
Industrial (including ADNOC)
Residential / Commercial Mega Projects
Bulk and Other
Global Demand including Auxiliaries
ADWEC Cumulative Change Constrained Mean Peak Water Demand ForecastADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 Demand Forecast (MIGD)
-19 16
117 135 145 153 161 167 173 178 182 186 190 193 196 198 201 203 205 206 208
1558
79
142177
214245
272290
307 318 333 346 356 366 374 382 388 394 401 407 413
30
95124
300
340
379404
424444
466486
512536
557578
597616
634651
668685
702
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Industrial (including ADNOC)
Residential / Commercial Mega Projects
Agricultural
Bulk and Other
Shabiat
Villas
Domestic
Total
Demonstrates that 80% - 90% of increase in Emirate of Abu Dhabi's Peak Water Demand comes from Residential / Commercial Mega Projects and Bulk & Other consumers
Emirate of Abu Dhabi including losses but excluding auxiliaries and excluding Northern Emirates.
SummarySummary
• Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and economic downturn has lowered the demand forecast in the early years to some extent.
• A significant increase in exports to the Northern Emirates has been committed to.
• Significant increase in electricity to be supplied to ADNOC.
• Short – medium term slower electricity demand growth in:
(1) Residential / Commercial Mega Projects (2) Industry
is partially offset by higher ADNOC demand in short run.
More than fully offset in the medium-term and increased in the long-run.
• ADWEC demand forecasts will be updated in late 2009 / early 2010 and will become the ADWEC Winter 2009 / 2010 Demand Forecast.
THANK YOUTHANK YOU
AnnexAnnex
ADWEC Planning ProcessADWEC Planning Process
Implementation SchedulesImplementation Schedules
YearsYears
5+ Years
3 - 4 Years
2 - 3.5 Years
2 - 3 Years
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Mega Projects
Infrastructure Projects
Conventional IWPPs
Gas / Oil SuppliesMega Projects
Conventional IWPPs
Gas / Oil Supplies
Infrastructure Projects
IWPPs require up to 4 years4 years from decision to proceed to completion
Existing 400kV circuitsExisting 400kV circuitsExisting 220kV circuitsExisting 220kV circuitsExisting 132kV circuitsExisting 132kV circuitsADNOC 132kV circuitsADNOC 132kV circuits
Power StationPower StationSub-StationSub-Station
ADNOC Oil & Gas PlantADNOC Oil & Gas PlantEMAL SmelterEMAL Smelter
Under ConstructionUnder ConstructionPlannedPlanned
Planned line cutPlanned line cut
Existing 400kV circuitsExisting 400kV circuitsExisting 220kV circuitsExisting 220kV circuitsExisting 132kV circuitsExisting 132kV circuitsADNOC 132kV circuitsADNOC 132kV circuits
Power StationPower StationSub-StationSub-Station
ADNOC Oil & Gas PlantADNOC Oil & Gas PlantEMAL SmelterEMAL Smelter
Under ConstructionUnder ConstructionPlannedPlanned
Planned line cutPlanned line cut
Abu Dhabi
Bu Hasa(ADCO Load)
10
9 MW
Existing Capacity as of 31/12/2009 along with ADNOC, ENG, GCC & EMAL interconnection.1
,615
MW
18
6 MW
10,110 MW
Asab(ADCO Load)
Liwa
SilaShuweihat
JebelDhanna
MirfaTarif
Dhabiya(ADCO Load)
Ramah
Wagan
Sanaiya
Al Ain
Mina (ADST) Shahama
SamhaHayer
Dubai
TOTAL(GROSS MW)
Khazna
4,6
51 M
W
2,4
33 M
W
To Salwa (GCC
interconnection)
Dhaid
Al Oha/Al Foa
To Al Wassit (GCC interconnection)
Dahma
Arad
MazyadAl Ain SW
E48
Mussaffah
GIC
Central
Rumaitha(ADCO Load)
Liwa West (Eradah)
April 10, 2023
Ghayathi
ONGS(ADCO Load)Bab
(ADCO Load)
Hameem(ADCO Load)
AGD II(ADCO Load)
Ruwais
900 – 1,150 MW(2010)
250 MW(2009)
400 MW(2010)
1,150 MW
86
1 MW
Ajman
Umm Al Quwain
Ras Al Khaimah
To Dubai
(ENG
interconnection)
Warsan
Taweelah
Qidfa
Sweihan
UAN
Wathba
Bahia
Airport
Khowr Khawer
Tawian
Saja
Madinat Zayed
X
Salamat
Zakher
25
6 MW
Shamkha
1,150 MW
(2010)
Umm El Oush
(Oct 2
009)
EMAL2,220 MW
(2010)
Delma
(Nov2009)
(May 2009)
Fujairah
Khorfakkan
Gurfa
Fujairah
DibbaHamariya
SEWA
Network
Galailah
(Nov2009)
Yas Island
Sahil(ADCO Load)
Habshan(ADCO Load)
NGI Plant(ADCO Load)
GUP-TAKREER(ADNOC)676 MW
DEWA
Network
Sharjah
Saadiyat
ADWEC Electricity MapADWEC Electricity Map
39 MG
D
684 M
GD
101 MG
D
1600 mm1600 mm1400 mm1400 mm1200 mm1200 mm1000 mm1000 mm
900 mm900 mm800 mm800 mm600 mm600 mm500 mm500 mm
Pumping Station (PS)Pumping Station (PS)Desalination PlantDesalination Plant
Proposed PSProposed PSUnder Construction / Under Construction /
ProposedProposed
1600 mm1600 mm1400 mm1400 mm1200 mm1200 mm1000 mm1000 mm
900 mm900 mm800 mm800 mm600 mm600 mm500 mm500 mm
Pumping Station (PS)Pumping Station (PS)Desalination PlantDesalination Plant
Proposed PSProposed PSUnder Construction / Under Construction /
ProposedProposed
Includes planned extensions as of 31/12/2009, excluding isolated Plants and Al Ain Network.
TOTAL
Abu Dhabi
Dubai
Al Ain
ADPS
MirfaShuweihat
UNIT 5
ShoubaisiAbu Al Abyad
Tarif
New Mirfa PS
Madinat Zayed
Liwa
Wagan
Jurf
Sila
PS1
PS2
Sih Shoib
Jebel Ali
297 MG
D
Qidfa
Tanks
Ghayathi
Adla
102 MG
D
April 10, 2023
UNIT 3Sweihan
UAN
Units I & II
Al-Saad
Ajban
Taweelah
Sharjah
Fujairah
Ras Al Khaimah
Jazirat Al-Hamra
Tap Off 12
Ramah
Al-Maha Forests
145 MG
D
DETAIL A
ADPS
UAN
UNIT 1
UNIT 2
LULU ISLAND
SADIYAT ISLAND
145 MG
D
REEM ISLAND
TO UNIT 3
N-4381Aug 2010
N-5805May 2010
N-3850Sep 2009
N-6139Jul 2011
N-5807Jul 2009
N-4268Dec 2010
N-6820/6821July 2011
Bani Yass
Mussaffah
Samha
Lulu Island
UNIT 4
Tao Off 9A
ADWEC Water MapADWEC Water Map
ADWEC Planning OverviewADWEC Planning Overview
Demand Forecast(including losses & auxiliary consumption)
Add Reserve Margin(Electricity GSS LOLE 0.1 / Water DSS 1 day in 50 years)
= Required Capacity Forecast
Existing / Planned / Under Construction Capacity
+
Versus
= New Capacity Requirements= New Capacity Requirements
ADWEC Electricity and WaterADWEC Electricity and WaterDemand Forecasting RegionsDemand Forecasting Regions
Abu DhabiAbu DhabiRegionRegion
WesternWesternRegionRegion
Al AinAl AinRegionRegion
Note: The sum of regional peaks is not equal to the system peak because of timing differences.
2006 peak per capita consumptions• Electricity 3 kW per capitaElectricity 3 kW per capita• Water 86 gallons per capitaWater 86 gallons per capita
Emirate of Abu Dhabi Population(2005 Census)
Peak Electricity Demand(2008 Gross MW)
Peak Water Supply(2008 Gross MIGD)
Abu Dhabi Region 757,523 3,511 375Al Ain Region 422,340 1,538 165Western Region 112,356 634 55Total 1,292,219 5,616 595
`
ADWEC Demand Forecasting ADWEC Demand Forecasting ProcessProcess
Population Inputs:1. Urban Planning Council (UPC)2. Mega Projects’ Population Forecasts3. 2005 Census4. Government Organisations5. ADWEC Historical Population Forecasts
Residential / Commercial
Industrial Inputs: 1. Zonescorp2. ADBIC3. Khalifa Port Industrial Zone (KPIZ)4. ADNOC / GASCO / ADCO etc
Industrial Sector
ADWEA Company Demand Forecasts:1. AADC 2. ADDC3. TRANSCO (e.g. transmission losses)4. ADWEC Auxiliary Consumption
All SectorsTransmission Code
Other Demand Forecasts / Inputs: 1. Mega Projects’ Developers Forecasts 2. Mega Projects’ Master plans3. Government Organisations4. Other Emirates Demand Forecasts 5. ADWEC Assumptions
All SectorsMega Projects / Non-Mega Projects
Other Emirates
Inputs ADWEC Electricity & WaterDemand Forecasts
Official Data Sources
ADWECIndependent Research
ADWEC Site Visits
Publications
• MEED magazine• Gulf News• Khaleej Times• Property Weekly• Arabic Newspapers
Internet
• gulfnews.com• khaleejtimes.com• uaeinteract.com• ameinfo.com• gulfconstructionworldwide.com• aldar.com• sorouh.com• other developers websites• google.co.uk• live.com• Arabic websites
Database created using public sources only
Private developer information is not used in the Public Database.
Public Database is used as
• Project Checklist
• Project Population Check
• Create Comparison Forecast
ADWEC generic assumptions(e.g. 3 kW per capita)+ Public Sources Database
= Comparison Forecast
• Urban Planning Council
• Transmission Code
Distribution Companies
Transmission Company
• 2005 Census
• Developers’ Plans
• 2001 Census
• Customer Databases
• Abu Dhabi Departments
• UAE Ministries
• Customer Requests
ADWECPublic Sources Database
ADWEC Demand Forecast Data SourcesADWEC Demand Forecast Data Sources
Abu Dhabi Metropolitan AreaAbu Dhabi Metropolitan Area
Source: Urban Planning Council – Plan Abu Dhabi 2030
1,300,000
2,000,000
3,100,000
180,000251,000
686,000
930,000
411,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
2007 2013 2020 2030
Residents
Residential Units
Population Forecasts
ADWEC’s Base Demand Forecasts now based on UPC’s Plan Abu Dhabi 2030
ADWEC BaseADWEC Base Electricity MethodologyElectricity Methodologyfor Residential / Commercial Mega Projectsfor Residential / Commercial Mega Projects
Mega Projects’ Developers Connected Load Forecasts
ADWEC Demand / Diversity Factors
Developers’ Connected Load x ADWEC Demand / Diversity Factors= Unadjusted Developers’ Mega Projects Peak Demand Forecast
Peak Demand Forecast Adjustment Factors for 2013 / 2020 / 2030 UPC’s Total Population Forecasts
versus Mega Projects Developers’ Total Population Forecasts
ADWEC Base Electricity Demand Forecast
Mega Projects’ Population Curve Pro-rated to obtain Intermediate Years
ADWEC Mega Project Implementation Lags (based on Site Visits / Progress / Past Experience etc)