electricity generation through natural gas full and final

7/31/2019 Electricity Generation Through Natural Gas Full and Final

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ELECTRICITY GENERATION

THROUGH NATURAL GAS

GROUP MEMEBERS:ALMAS SHAHID (5538)

AVINASH ADVANI (6356)


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Electricty generation through natural

gasPRESENTED BY AVINASH ADVANI


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Acknowledgement

Thanks To Almighty Allah Who gave me

Courage and Willpower to complete the task I

have been given.


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Natural gas is believed by many to be the mostimportant energy source for the future.

Gas is main resource in pakistan 50% of the countrysenergy is provided by natural gas.

Energyis the most important sources for economic

growth of a country. Unfortunately Pakistan has to facea major energy crisis in Natural gas, Powerand Oilinnext two to three years.


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Diagram Evaluating pakistans Energy

supply


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TYPES OF NATURAL GAS

Shale Gas

Methane Hydrates

Biomass

Liquefied Natural Gas

Tight gas reservior

Conventional Gas

Non-Conventional Gas

Compressed Natural Gas Liquefied Petroleum Gas

Coalbed Methane(CBM)


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Supply and Demand Gap

The demand of electric power could exceedsupply by about 6000 MW at the end of 2010,which can mean the increase in load shedding inthe country before entering in 2011.

The total power production of the country isabout 19,500 MW and the total consumerdemand is around 23,500 MW, which means that

Pakistan is facing a shortfall of 4000 MW. Atpresent electricity is generated by thermal, hydeland nuclear modes


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Objectives of my Research

The main objective of my research is to findout either the consumption of air conditionersof pak is responsible for load shedding or

growth in industrial sector in pak isresponsible for load shedding.

To find out the past trend of electricityconsumption and present and future situationis also objective of my research


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factors

We are dependent on oil as the prices of oilincreases in Pakistan then it will affect the wholeeconomy and prices will increases this is fact.

But when we talk about gas it is cheaper than oil.

1st

people dont use the LPG in their cars so thatas we growing now we have LPG to use in carswhich is cost cheaper than petrol


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Recommendation ( AVINASH)

Govt is trying to best level to produced the

electricity thats why they start many projects

but specially they are working on Thermal

Power project and THAR COAL project oncethey completed the project then we pay the

cost of electricity cheaper than now we are

paying through natural gas and one of thebiggest benefit is that the problem of shortage

of electricity so we can fulfill the requirement.


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Electricty generation through natural

gasPRESENTED BY ALMAS SHAHID


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KEY PLAYERS OF ENERGY SECTOR


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COST OF PRODUCTION OF

GENERATION MIX. CURRENTLY ENERGY SECTOR HAS A GENERATION MIX THAT IS 90% DEPENDENT

ON OIL AND GAS FOR ENERGY GENERATION.

SECTORS GWH % RS/KWH

TOTAL 6247.17 100% 8.8373

IMPORT 20.77 0.33% 9

HYDEL 991.37 15.87% 0.2246

HSD 119.99 1.92% 19.26

RFO 2652.07 42.45% 16

GAS 1954.96 31.29% 4.3691

NUCLEA

R435.8 6.98% 1.2145

FUEL TYPE NEW PRICES OLD PRICES

RS./ LITRE RS./LITRE

PETROL 105.68 97.66

LDO 98.74 93.29KEROSENE OIL 101.96 96.4

HOBC 135.81 126.87

HSD 108.16 103.46

INCREASE IN FUEL PRICE IN INTERNATIONAL

MARKET LEADS TO RISE IN COST OFGENERATION MIX


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CRISES IN ENERGY SECTOR

INTER-CORPORATE CIRCULAR DEBT RISING FUEL COST

GOVT. SUBSIDIES

WRONG GENERATION MIX CHOICE

NON-RECOVERY OF BILLS

ELECTRICITY THEFT

FUEL SHORTAGE

INEFFICIENCIES IN GENCOS DICREPENCY BETWEEN POWER GENERATION AND

CONSUMER TARIFF

INCREASING SUPPLY AND DEMAND GAP

LINE/TRANSMISSION LOSSES FOR DISCOS


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Pakistans Power sector


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MODELS


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Sectors Affected By Circular Debt

Crises


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International Oil Prices Rise

G t idi b idi


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Govt. providing subsidies

Raising General Sales Tax..

Printing more money.

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

10.5

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Rs/Kw

Figure-2: Consumer Tariff vis-a-vis Cost of Power Generation

Consumer Cost of Power Generation


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Inter-corporate

Circular Debt.

March 2009 Government issues PKR 80 Million Bail-out package

September 2009Government issues PKR 82 Million Bail-out package

IPPs issue notice to government for sovereign guarantee call

PEPCO receivables cross Rs. 400 Billion

GoP plans to release Rs. 150 Billion

August 2011

February 2012

February 2012


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Energy Sector In Crises

TRANSMISSION AND

DISPATCH LOSSES

CRIPPLED CASH FLOWS


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THERMAL POWER

GENERATION SCENARIO


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90% Dependence on RFO

Impacts


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PRESENT ELECTRICITY GENERATION

SCENARIO


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Pakistans Power Demand-Supply Forecast


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Facing The Challenges


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GAS AND RFO ROLE IN FUEL MIX


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Impact of Energy Crisis

Electricity shortage of more than 4500 MW and frequent power cutstranslate to:

0

4

8

12

16

Current Future (2020)

$ billion Energy Import Bill for Power Generation

Increasing dependence onexpensive imported energy

puts a severe constraint onability to pay

Import bill expected toincrease to above USD 8 billionby 2020


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Supply-Demand Gap

Power shortfall jumps to 4,800 megawatts (APRIL 12,2012)

The power crisis in the country has further deepened ason Wednesday shortfall again jumped to 4,800 MW

during the last 24 hours. According to the daily loadmanagement report, the total generation wasrecorded as 10,326 MW against the demand of 15,126MW during the said period.

The hydel generation stood at 2792 MW, WAPDAthermal 1691 MW and IPPs 5,843. As much as 670 MWelectricity was supplied to Karachi Electric Supply

Company (KESC), the report further said.


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Pakistans Development Challenge

Population Below Poverty Line(income less than USD 2 / day)

_____________________

60%

Population Growth Rate

_______________________

2%

GDP per Capita

_____________

980 USD

0.01

0.10

1.00

10.00

100.00

1,000.00

10,000.00

0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 100.00 1,000.00 10,000.00

Energy Supplies in Million Tons of Oil Equivalent

GDP USD Billion

.and needs energy to meet this challenge


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Wrong Fuel Choice

Due to lack of indigenous natural gas shortages, reliance on expensive imported RFO has increased

and exacerbated Circular Debt problem

If Coal had been used instead of RFO to make up for indigenous natural gas shortage, it would

have reduced energy import bill by USD 600 M and direct saving ofUSD 280 M to electricity

consumers

50% reduction in use of RFO for power generation would reduce Pakistans energy import bill

by USD 900 M and benefit electricity consumers by USD 400 M

Gas

42%

RFO

25%HSD

1%

Coal0%

Hydel

30%

Nuclear2% 2008-09

Gas

29%

RFO

37%HSD

1%

Coal0%

Hydel

30%

Nuclear3% 2009-10


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THAR COAL POTENTIAL

Thar

PAKISTAN

Thar Desert contains the worlds 7

th

largest coal reserves:

1% = 25%Thar Coal Reserve

175 Billion Ton = 50 Billion TOE = 2000 TCFTotal Thar Coal Reserve More than Saudi Arabia 68 times higher than

& Iranian Oil Reserves Pakistans total gas reserves

Pakistans Power

Generation Capacity in

2010

Development of Block II alone would

bring in investment ofUSD 12 Billion

Entire Thar Coal Reserves can be used to

generate 100,000 MW of electricity for

over 200 years


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Importing Natural Gas

Proposed Pipelines Pakistans government is working on plans to build a pipeline that spans from Irans

massive natural gas reserves to Indian markets across Pakistani territory. Iran hasoffered to cover 60 percent of the construction costs of the pipeline and Pakistaniofficials have stressed their ability to safeguard the pipeline. Pakistan could earnabout $70 million annually in transit fees from the pipeline.

A second natural gas import possibility that has been considered is an eventual linkto the Dolphin Project in Qatar. This plan would supply natural gas from Qatar'sNorth Dome field to Pakistan via a sub sea pipeline from Oman. Even thoughPakistan has signed a preliminary agreement to eventually purchase natural gasfrom Qatar, it remains to be seen if further action on the project will be taken.

A third natural gas pipeline option that has been discussed is a line fromTurkmenistan to Pakistan via Afghanistan. Pakistan faces various hurdles with thisoption, which include the security situation in Afghanistan and the price.
http://www.eoearth.org/article/Energy_profile_of_Omanhttp://www.eoearth.org/article/Energy_profile_of_Omanhttp://www.eoearth.org/article/Energy_profile_of_Qatarhttp://www.eoearth.org/article/Energy_profile_of_Qatarhttp://www.eoearth.org/article/Energy_profile_of_Afghanistanhttp://www.eoearth.org/article/Energy_profile_of_Afghanistanhttp://www.eoearth.org/article/Energy_profile_of_Afghanistanhttp://www.eoearth.org/article/Energy_profile_of_Qatarhttp://www.eoearth.org/article/Energy_profile_of_Oman


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Natural Gas Production


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Natural Gas Consumption


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Steps Taken By Govt. Of Pakistan


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Recommendations (ALMAS)

In addition I recommend that Pakistan focus on building its energy in the future by:

Hydro-electricity

This is because the cost of production of hydro electricity is cheapest course of energy. Further more inconditions of drought and floods building of dams help agricultural sector of Pakistan withstand extremeconditions.

Indigenous coal

This is because it will save us a great deal of foreign exchange by utilizing our countries own resources and notimporting. Our generation mix will be less affected by rising fuel prices in the international oil market.

Renewable ResourcesAs it provides alternative source of energy and will help lower the cost of production of energy generation sothat all sectors of Pakistan enjoy the benefits of energy and our economy prosper.

Gas

As it is cleaner and efficient to use and will not harm the plants and the environment as compared to theresidual furnace oil. It is also cheaper than RFO

Encouraging Foreign Investment

By bringing in private and foreign investment in our energy sector, it will become self-sustainable and comesout of energy crises, It will also help build in confidence of the local investors.

RFO

To increase the range of the generation mix, not relying on any one of the factor of production ,to sustain andbear any shocks in the energy generation.

Nuclear

As it is most dangerous to handle so in last option it must be used, however should be used so that generationmix has a many ways of generation electricity.

electricity generation through natural gas full and final

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