Electric, Hybrid, and Fuel Cell VehiclesOct. 24, 2003

Gary Flomenhoft,BSME, MAPP, CEEResearch AssociateGund Institute, SNR

Owner: InnEVations.com

Electric Vehicles 1st Wave 1890-1920

The years 1899 and 1900 were the high point of electric vehicles in America, as they outsold all other types of cars.

Source:

US DOE

“Better batteries 10 years away”

“Liars, damn liars, and battery manufacturers.” -Thomas Edison (Ni-Fe)

Hubbert Oil Cycle

M. King Hubbert

•Julian Simon view: technological Julian Simon view: technological developments and human ingenuity developments and human ingenuity will yield more resourceswill yield more resources

–““Drowning in oil” Drowning in oil” The EconomistThe Economist, March , March 66thth-12-12thth 1999, pp. 23-25 1999, pp. 23-25

•Colin Campbell, et al. use Hubbert Colin Campbell, et al. use Hubbert curves to predict the end of oilcurves to predict the end of oil

–““The End of Cheap Oil” The End of Cheap Oil” Scientific Scientific AmericanAmerican, March 1998, pp. 78-83 , March 1998, pp. 78-83 (Campbell and Laherrere)(Campbell and Laherrere)

Two ViewsTwo Views

S. GS. Gürcan Gülen, ürcan Gülen, Ph.D.Ph.D.

Ehrlich/Simon bet

Source-World Oil Extraction

World Oil Extraction

Hubbert-Epoch of Fossil Fuel

World Oil Extraction

World Oil Extraction

World Oil Extraction

Atmospheric CO2 since 1000AD

CO

2 PP

M

SINK-CLIMATE CHANGEDoes CO2 change the climate and how bad is it?

SINK-CLIMATE CHANGEDoes CO2 change the climate and how bad is it?

2 BILLION YEARS

You are here

SINK-CLIMATE CHANGEDoes CO2 change the climate and how bad is it?

SINK-CLIMATE CHANGEArctic Ice thinned by 40%: US subs

Europe in August 2003

COUNTRY DEATHS DETAILS

France 14,802Temperatures soared to 104 degrees Fahrenheit in parts of the country; temperatures in Paris were the highest since record-keeping began in 1873.

Germany 7000High temperatures of up to 105.4 degreesFahrenheit, the hottest since records began in 1901, raised mortality some 10 percent above average.

Spain 4230High temperatures coupled with elevated ground-level ozone concentrations exceeding the European Union's health-risk threshold.

Italy 4175Temperatures in parts of the country averaged 16 degrees Fahrenheit higher than previous year.

UK 2045The first triple digit (Fahrenheit) temperatures were recorded in London.

Neth 1400Temperatures ranged some 14 degrees warmer than normal.

Portugal 1316Temperatures were above 104 degrees Fahrenheit throughout much of the country.

Belgium 150Temperatures exceeded any in the Royal Meteorological Society's records dating back to 1833.

TOTAL 35,118

CLIMATE DAMAGE

CLIMATE DAMAGE

CLIMATE DAMAGE

Jet Industries:

Citi-Car(Beaumont)

Electricar Lectra

1980’s 2nd Wave of EVs

“Better batteries 10 years away”

Source: WRI Estimate Based on Data from "National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report, 1995," 1996, EPA 454/R-96-005.

Percentage Sector Contribution to Air Pollution Emissions (1995)

AIR POLLUTION FATALITIES NOW EXCEED TRAFFIC FATALITIES BY 3: 1http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/Update17.htm

Industrial33%

Transportation31%

Residential19%

Commercial16%

U.S. Territories1%

US CO2 by Sector (1999)

Source:

(US EPA)

Source: EPA

Hummer H1Sticker price $106,185

Current lawEquipment deduction $25,000Total tax deduction* $60,722

Bush economic planEquipment deduction $75,000Total tax deduction* $88,722

* Includes bonus tax write-off enacted by Congress in March 2002 and a deduction for normal depreciation.

Sources: Detroit News research, IRS, Taxpayers for Common Sense

Gas Hog Tax Credit

Tom Tomorrow

Source:

Center for

A New

American

Dream

If World consumption = US: Need 4 more planets

Cars per Thousand People

Source:

JustAuto.com

“Today there are 670 million vehicles in the world. By 2050 that number is expected to increase to 4.5 billion or maybe more.”

Thomas Gross, US DOE

1990-CARB Mandate• More than 95% of Californians live in areas that do not meet health-based federal or state air quality standards.

• Approximately 50% of smog-forming pollutants come from gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles.

• Although many automobiles sold in California today are 98% cleaner than those sold 30 years ago, population growth and increased driving may soon outpace our ability to improve air quality if we rely solely on continued improvements to gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles.

• ZEVS required for further reductions

Why did automakers build EVs in 90’s?

NOT Env. Or MARKET DRIVEN! Gas is cheap. ($400 billion annual subsidy)

1990 CA Air Resources Board Mandates

Model Years ZEVs reqd. in CA

1998 2%*

2001 5%*

2003-2008 10%

2009-2011 11%

2012-2014 12%

2015-2017 14%

2018+ 16%* Requirement modified in 1996

Even when taking into account power plant emissions, ZEVs are 95% cleaner than even the lowest emitting conventional vehicle.

Do ZEVs simply shift air emissions from one place to another?Source:

CA Air ResourcesBoard

ZEV EMISSIONS

EVs 3rd Wave 1990+:

First Phase = (Small Conversion companies)

Solar ElectricEngineering(USElectricar)

“Better batteries 10 years away”

MendoMotive

InnEVations

Thunderstruck-EV.com

Solectria:

Tropica (Beaumont)

Corbin:

1990’s 2nd Phase: Small Corporations, US

“Better batteries 10 years away”

Europe: City-El 5000 Sold Party

Phase 3: Nearing 1998 Detroit and Japan

Detroit: We can’t do it. Hire Lawyers.(Can’t do seatbelts, 5mph bumpers, side impact protection, unleaded gas, better gas mileage, airbags, etc.)

GM EV-1

Gen 1:Lead Acid70 - 90 miles

Gen 2: Nickel Metal Hydride 125-150 miles

Model Years ZEVs reqd. in CA

1998 2%*

2001 5%*

2003-2008 10%

2009-2011 11%

2012-2014 12%

2015-2017 14%

2018+ 16%

* Requirement modified in 1996

Cost of regulations-OMB report

Annual Cost: $37-43 billion

EPA conservative approach, Consistently overestimates costs, not considering least cost approach and technical innovation

Annual Benefits: $121-193

EPA consistently underestimates benefits

USING ACTUAL NOT THEORETICAL CASES BENEFITS OUTWEIGH COSTS 5:1

Honda EVPlusNickel Metal Hydride 80 miles

Japan: We can do it. Hire engineers.EV Plus SpecsLength: 159.3 in.Width: 68.9 in.Height: 64.2 in.Wheel Base 99.6 in.Track Front/Rear: 59.1/58.7Curb Weight: 3593.5Drive Train: Front Wheel DriveOccupants: FourVoltage: 288Motor: Brushless PMPower: 49 Kw (66hp)Battery 24 12v NiMHCharger: On-board ConductiveRecharge: 6-8 hrsAcceleration: 4.9 sec (0-30 mph)Maximum Speed: 80+ mphRange: 100 miles (80% discharge)Lease Cost: $455/mo for 36 mo.

Better Batteries are finally here, but you can’t afford them.

Nissan AltraLithium-ion 80-100 miles

Toyota RAV4-EVNickel Metal Hydride 80 miles

Japan: We can do it. Hire engineers.

Honda EVPlusNickel Metal Hydride 80 miles

Neighborhood Electric Vehicles

FORD Th!nk Nissan Hypermini

Toyota E-com

Chrysler GEM

OTHER EVS

ENERGY STORAGE

Performance of Energy Storage Systems

Fuel Specific Energy

Wh/kg

Gasoline 12,300

Natural gas 9,300

Hydrogen 33,000

Lead-acid battery 30

Advanced Lead Acid 48

Gasoline:C8H18

ENERGY STORAGE

Performance of Advanced EV Battery SystemsEnergy Density

Wh/kg

Power Density

W/kgLife

Cycles

Lead-acid battery 30 150 300Advanced Lead Acid 48 150 800 GM Ovonic nickel metal hydride

70 220 >600

SAFT nickel metal hydride 70 150 1,500 SAFT lithium ion 120 230 600 Lithium polymer 150 350 <600 Evercel Nickel-zinc 60 255 500Zinc-Air 160-220 low ?Composite Flywheels 120Supercapacitors

Source:

USABC

and others

SOURCE:

ELECTRIC

STORAGE ASSOC.

LITHIUM-ION BATTERY

COMPOSITE FLYWHEELS

SOURCE:

ELECTRIC

STORAGE ASSOC.

SUPERCAPACITORS

SOURCE:

ELECTRIC

STORAGE ASSOC.

ZINC-AIR FUEL CELL

SOURCE:

ELECTRIC

STORAGE ASSOC.

SOURCE:

METALLIC POWER.COM

MECHANICAL RECHARGE

ZINC-AIR FUEL CELL

SOURCE:

ELECTRIC

STORAGE ASSOC.

ENERGY DENSITY BY WEIGHT AND VOLUME

Passenger car emissions reduction HC CO NOxTLEV- Transitional Low-Emission Vehicle

50% NR NR

LEV- Low-Emission Vehicle 70% NR 50%

ULEV- Ultra-Low-Emission Vehicle (50% cleaner than the average new 2003 model year vehicle. )

85% 50% 50%

SULEV- Super-Ultra-Low-Emission Vehicle (90% cleaner than 2003 average)

96% 70% 95%

PZEV-Partial Zero-Emission-Vehicle

96% 70% 95%SULEV & 15 year/150K mile warranty and 0 evaporative emissions.

AT PZEV-Advanced Technology PZEV (CNG, hybrid-electric, methanol, fuel cell)

96% 70% 95%PZEV & and include advanced technology components.

ZEV-Zero-Emission Vehicles (98%

cleaner than the average new 2003 model year vehicle.)

100% 100% 100%

CARB DEFINITIONS

CLEANER

What is a Hybrid Electric Vehicle?

What is a Hybrid Electric Vehicle?

What is a Hybrid Electric Vehicle?

Available Hybrid Electric Vehicles

2000-2004 TOYOTA PRIUS

1999-2004 HONDA INSIGHT

2003-2004 HONDA CIVIC

$22,000-$26,00060 hwy 48 city

$19,180-21,380Std:68 auto:62/58

$20,260-$21,110 std:46/51 auto:48/47

Hybrid Electric Vehicles

2005 FORD ESCAPE HYBRID

2004 GM “FlexPower” Chevy Silverado Pickup

Semi-hybrid

Loaded ICE $26,700Hybrid ~35-40 mpg city

10-15% mpgimprovement

Future Hybrid Electric Vehicles

Nissan Tino

Nissan's Hybrid Vehicle(HV) is called the Tino. It is powered by a combination of a 1.8-liter four-cylinder engine and an electric motor with lithium-ion batteries. The vehicle is a five passenger car that achieves twice the fuel economy and 50% less emissions. Nissan's Tino hybrid electric car will be sold only in Japan, initially.

Spring 2004 LEXUS HYBRID

Fall 2004 Toyota Hylander

Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV)Since 1993-$1.1 billion

GM Precept Hybrid

Chrysler ESX 2 Hybrid

Dodge ESX-3 hybrid

1.5-liter direct-injection three-cylinder diesel engine

15-kW or 20-hp, permanent magnet electric motor/generator

21-kW lithium-ion battery pack.2006 Ford Futura

Future Hybrid Electric Vehicles

Manufacturer Model Year

Ford Explorer 2005+

GM Chevy Suburban

2005

Saturn VUE 2005

Chevy Equinox 2006

GMC Yukon 2007

Chevy Tahoe 2007

Daimler-Chrysler

Dodge Ram Pickup

2005

Mercedes S-class

2006

FUEL CELL VEHICLES-2004 FORD

The Ford Focus FCV fuel cell system is efficient, quiet, and produces zero emissions. Ford has announced plans to have a three year demonstration program of 5-10 fleet vehicles in Vancouver, Canada in 2004.

FUEL CELL VEHICLES-2003 Honda

Honda is delivering a family of new FCX fuel-cell vehicles to its first customer, the city of Los Angeles. Honda plans to lease approximately 30 fuel-cell cars in California and Japan during the next several years. The fuel-cell itself is propelled by electricity generated by a hydrogen-oxygen chemical reaction—and its only emission, remarkably, is water vapor.

FUEL CELL VEHICLES-2003 TOYOTA

Its only exhaust is water vapor. Its secret? A hydrogen fuel cell that harnesses the electricity of separated atoms and molecules as they strive to be electrically balanced. Developed entirely in-house, FCHV-4 shows Toyota on the leading edge of fuel-cell technology.

(NOT AVAILABLE)

FUEL CELL VEHICLES-NISSAN

X-TRAIL FCVNissan is actively developing fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) that have low environmental impact and save energy. Commercialization is scheduled for 2003.(?????)

FUEL CELL VEHICLES-GM

The Hy-wire has no internal combustion engine, instrument panel, brake or accelerator pedals – but it does have ample power supplied by a GM fuel cell that runs on hydrogen.

PROTOTYPE

FUEL CELL VEHICLES-DAIM/CHRYSLER

FUEL CELL VEHICLES-DAIM/CHRYSLER

FUEL CELL VEHICLES-HYUNDAI

HYDROGEN FUEL CELL OPERATION

SOURCE:

Schatz Energy Lab

Humboldt State U.

PEM HYDROGEN FUEL CELLS

SOURCE:

Schatz Energy Lab

Humboldt State U.

PEM= Proton Exchange Membrane (“Nafion”tm)

SOME SURPRISING FACTS ABOUT HYDROGEN

A) HYDROGEN STORES & TRANSPORTS ENERGY. A CARRIER NOT A SOURCE.

A) BATTERIES

Where does hydrogen come from?Fossil: nat gas, propane, gasoline, methanol

Renewable: electric wind, solar, etc. electrolyze waterMethane (CH4), methanol(CH3OH), ammonia(NH3?)

Q1) IS HYDROGEN A revolutionary NEW ENERGY SOURCE?

Q2) WHICH IS MORE EFFICIENT, FUEL CELL OR BATTERIES?

INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINE

oil (gasoline) -> IC engine 15%

H2 Fuel Cell Efficiency

BATTERY POWERED ELECTRIC VEHICLEOil-> power plant -> electricity ~=45%transmission~=80%battery charging ~=80%electric drive system ~=80%

.45 x .8 x .8 x .8 = 23%

FUEL CELL POWERED ELECTRIC VEHICLEOil-> power plant-> electricity~=45%electricity transmission ~=80%H2 electrolyzer max efficiency ~=70%H2 fuel cell max efficiency ~=50%Electric drive system ~=80%

.45 x .8 x .7 x .5 x .8 = 10%

SOLAR FUEL CELLS ?

SOURCE:

Schatz Energy Lab

Humboldt State U.

last

Source: http://www.geocities.com/Hollywood/Set/7466/bikepics.htm

Most efficient form of transportation