ekonomİk dengeler alt Üst olacak

8/8/2019 EKONOMK DENGELER ALT ST OLACAK

1/17

Germany and the Failure of Multiculturalism

German Chancellor Angela Merkel declared at anOct. 16 meeting of young members of her party, theChristian Democratic Union, that multiculturalism, orMultikulti, as the Germans put it, has failed totally.Horst Seehofer, minister-president of Bavaria andthe chairman of a sister party to the ChristianDemocrats, said at the same meeting that the twoparties were committed to a dominant Germanculture and opposed to a multicultural one. Merkelalso said that the flood of immigrants is holding

back the German economy, although Germany doesneed more highly trained specialists, as opposed tothe laborers who have sought economic advantagesin Germany.

The statements were striking in their bluntness andtheir willingness to speak of a dominant German

culture, a concept that for obvious reasons Germanshave been sensitive about asserting since WorldWar II. The statement should be taken with utmostseriousness and considered for its social andgeopolitical implications. It should also beconsidered in the broader context of Europesresponse to immigration, not to Germanys response

alone.
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100915_german_economic_growth_and_european_discontent?fn=5617393422http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100915_german_economic_growth_and_european_discontent?fn=5617393422http://yerelce.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/stratfor.gifhttp://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100915_german_economic_growth_and_european_discontent?fn=5617393422http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100915_german_economic_growth_and_european_discontent?fn=5617393422


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The Origins of the German Immigration Question

Lets begin with the origins of the problem. Post-

World War II Germany faced a severe labor shortagefor two reasons: a labor pool depleted by thedevastating war and by Soviet prisoner-of-warcamps and the economic miracle that began onthe back of revived industry in the 1950s. Initially,Germany was able to compensate by admittingethnic Germans fleeing Central Europe and

Communist East Germany. But the influx onlyhelped assuage the population loss from World WarII. Germany needed more labor to feed itsburgeoning export-based industry, and in particularmore unskilled laborers for manufacturing,construction and other industries.

To resolve the continuing labor shortage, Germanyturned to a series of successive labor recruitmentdeals, first with Italy (1955). After labor from Italydried up due to Italys own burgeoning economy,Germany turned to Spain (1960), Greece (1960),Turkey (1961) and then Yugoslavia (1968). Laborrecruitment led to a massive influx of Gastarbeiter,

German for guest workers, into German society.The Germans did not see this as something thatwould change German society: They regarded themigrants as temporary labor, not as immigrants inany sense. As the term implied, the workers wereguests and would return to their countries of originwhen they were no longer needed (many Spaniards,

Italians and Portuguese did just this). This did not


3/17

particularly trouble the Germans, who were primarilyinterested in labor.

The Germans simply didnt expect this to be a long-term issue. They did not consider how to assimilatethese migrants, a topic that rarely came up in policydiscussions. Meanwhile, the presence of migrantlabor allowed millions of Germans to move it fromunskilled labor to white-collar jobs during the 1960s.

An economic slowdown in 1966 and full-onrecession following the oil shock of 1973 changedlabor conditions in Germany. Germany no longerneeded a steady stream of unskilled labor andactually found itself facing mounting unemploymentamong migrants already in country, leading to theAnwerbestopp, German for labor recruitment

stop, in 1973.Nonetheless, the halt in migration did not resolvethe fact that guest workers already were in Germanyin great numbers, migrants who now wanted to bringin family members. The 1970s saw most migrationswitch to family reunions and, when the German

government moved to close that loophole, asylum.As the Italians, Spanish and Portuguese returnedhome to tend to their countries own successiveeconomic miracles, Muslim Turks became theoverwhelming majority of migrants in Germany particularly as asylum seekers flocked intoGermany, most of whom were not fleeing any real

government retribution. It did not help that Germany


4/17

had particularly open asylum laws in large part dueto guilt over the Holocaust, a loophole Turkishmigrants exploited en masse following the 1980

coup detat in Turkey.

As the migrants transformed from a temporaryexigency to a multigenerational community, theGermans had to confront the problem. At base, theydid not want the migrants to become part ofGermany. But if they were to remain in the country,

Berlin wanted to make sure the migrants becameloyal to Germany. The onus on assimilating migrantsinto the larger society increased as Muslimdiscontent rocked Europe in the 1980s. The solutionGermans finally agreed upon in the mid-to-late 1980swas multiculturalism, a liberal and humane conceptthat offered migrants a grand bargain: Retain your

culture but pledge loyalty to the state.

In this concept, Turkish immigrants, for example,would not be expected to assimilate into Germanculture. Rather, they would retain their own culture,including language and religion, and that culturewould coexist with German culture. Thus, there

would be a large number of foreigners, many ofwhom could not speak German and by definition didnot share German and European values.

While respecting diversity, the policy seemed toamount to buying migrant loyalty. The deeperexplanation was that the Germans did not want, and

did not know how, to assimilate culturally,
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linguistically, religiously and morally diverse people.Multiculturalism did not so much represent respectfor diversity as much as a way to escape the

question of what it meant to be German and whatpathways foreigners would follow to becomeGermans.

Two Notions of Nation

This goes back to the European notion of the nation,

which is substantially different from the Americannotion. For most of its history, the United Statesthought of itself as a nation of immigrants, but with acore culture that immigrants would have to accept ina well-known multicultural process. Anyone couldbecome an American, so long as they accepted thelanguage and dominant culture of the nation. This

left a lot of room for uniqueness, but some valueshad to be shared. Citizenship became a legalconcept. It required a process, an oath and sharedvalues. Nationality could be acquired; it had a price.

To be French, Polish or Greek meant not only thatyou learned their respective language or adopted

their values it meant that you were French, Polishor Greek because your parents were, as were theirparents. It meant a shared history of suffering andtriumph. One couldnt acquire that.

For the Europeans, multiculturalism was not theliberal and humane respect for other cultures that it

pretended to be. It was a way to deal with the realitythat a large pool of migrants had been invited as
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workers into the country. The offer ofmulticulturalism was a grand bargain meant to lockin migrant loyalty in exchange for allowing them to

keep their culture and to protect European culturefrom foreign influences by sequestering theimmigrants. The Germans tried to have their workersand a German identity simultaneously. It didnt work.

Multiculturalism resulted in the permanent alienationof the immigrants. Having been told to keep their

own identity, they did not have a shared interest inthe fate of Germany. They identified with the countrythey came from much more than with Germany.Turkey was home. Germany was a convenience. Itfollowed that their primary loyalty was to their homeand not to Germany. The idea that a commitment toones homeland culture was compatible with a

political loyalty to the nation one lived in wassimplistic. Things dont work that way. As a result,Germany did not simply have an alien mass in itsmidst: Given the state of affairs between the Islamicworld and the West, at least some Muslimimmigrants were engaged in potential terrorism.

Multiculturalism is profoundly divisive, particularlyin countries that define the nation in Europeanterms, e.g., through nationality. What is fascinatingis that the German chancellor has chosen to becomethe most aggressive major European leader to speakout against multiculturalism. Her reasons, politicaland social, are obvious. But it must also be

remembered that this is Germany, which previously
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addressed the problem of the German nation via theHolocaust. In the 65 years since the end of WorldWar II, the Germans have been extraordinarily

careful to avoid discussions of this issue, andGerman leaders have not wanted to say things suchas being committed to a dominant German culture.We therefore need to look at the failure ofmulticulturalism in Germany in another sense,namely, with regard to what is happening inGermany.

Simply put, Germany is returning to history. It hasspent the past 65 years desperately trying not toconfront the question of national identity, the rightsof minorities in Germany and the exercise of Germanself-interest. The Germans have embeddedthemselves in multinational groupings like the

European Union and NATO to try to avoid adiscussion of a simple and profound concept:nationalism. Given what they did last time the mattercame up, they are to be congratulated for theirexercise of decent silence. But that silence is nowover.

The Re-emergence of German Nation Awareness

Two things have forced the re-emergence of Germannational awareness. The first, of course, is theimmediate issue a large and indigestible mass ofTurkish and other Muslim workers. The second isthe state of the multinational organizations to which

Germany tried to confine itself. NATO, a military
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20101011_natos_lack_strategic_concept?fn=5717393417http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20101011_natos_lack_strategic_concept?fn=5717393417


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alliance consisting mainly of countries lackingmilitaries worth noting, is moribund. The second isthe state of the European Union. After the Greek and

related economic crises, the certainties about aunited Europe have frayed. Germany now sees itselfas shaping EU institutions so as not to be forcedinto being the European Unions ultimate financialguarantor. And this compels Germany to think aboutGermany beyond its relations with Europe.

It is impossible for Germany to reconsider itsposition on multiculturalism without, at the sametime, validating the principle of the German nation.Once the principle of the nation exists, so does theidea of a national interest. Once the national interestexists, Germany exists in the context of theEuropean Union only as what Goethe termed an

elective affinity. What was a certainty amid theCold War now becomes an option. And if Europebecomes an option for Germany, then not only hasGermany re-entered history, but given that Germanyis the leading European power, the history of Europebegins anew again.

This isnt to say that Germany must follow anyparticular foreign policy given its new official viewon multiculturalism; it can choose many paths. Butan attack on multiculturalism is simultaneously anaffirmation of German national identity. You canthave the first without the second. And once thathappens, many things become possible.
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20101015_us_and_europe_face_military_spending?fn=5017393472http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100517_germany_greece_and_exiting_eurozone?fn=3317393482http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100517_germany_greece_and_exiting_eurozone?fn=3317393482http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20101015_us_and_europe_face_military_spending?fn=5017393472http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100517_germany_greece_and_exiting_eurozone?fn=3317393482http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100517_germany_greece_and_exiting_eurozone?fn=3317393482


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Consider that Merkel made clear that Germanyneeded 400,000 trained specialists. Consider alsothat Germany badly needs workers of all sorts who

are not Muslims living in Germany, particularly inview of Germanys demographic problems. IfGermany cant import workers for social reasons, itcan export factories, call centers, medical analysisand IT support desks. Not far to the east is Russia,which has a demographic crisis of its own butnonetheless has spare labor capacity due to its

reliance on purely extractive natural resources forits economy. Germany already depends on Russianenergy. If it comes to rely on Russian workers, andin turn Russia comes to rely on German investment,then the map of Europe could be redrawn onceagain and European history restarted at an evengreater pace.

Merkels statement is therefore of enormousimportance on two levels. First, she has said aloudwhat many leaders already know, which is thatmulticulturalism can become a national catastrophe.Second, in stating this, she sets in motion otherprocesses that could have a profound impact on notonly Germany and Europe but also the globalbalance of power. It is not clear at this time what herintention is, which may well be to boost her center-right coalition governments abysmal popularity. Butthe process that has begun is neither easilycontained nor neatly managed. All of Europe,indeed, much of the world, is coping with thestruggle between cultures within their borders. But
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100119_russia_continued_demographic_challenge?fn=6417393474http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100119_russia_continued_demographic_challenge?fn=6417393474http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100621_germany_and_russia_move_closer?fn=2617393488http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20081006_german_question?fn=2817393415http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100119_russia_continued_demographic_challenge?fn=6417393474http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100119_russia_continued_demographic_challenge?fn=6417393474http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100621_germany_and_russia_move_closer?fn=2617393488http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20081006_german_question?fn=2817393415


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the Germans are different, historically andgeographically. When they begin thinking thesethoughts, the stakes go up.

Source : STRATFOR

Read more:

Germany and the Failure of Multiculturalism |

STRATFOR

France:German, Russian Leaders Support

Monetary Reform

Paris, Berlin, Moscow and the Emerging

Concert of Europe

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11/17

AKP iktidar ykmda ve farklklar azdranpolitikalarnda inatederse

Almanya, Trk halkna dostluklabaldr.

Fransa da hayat fel oldu, Belika da trenleralmad; Almanya da Trk ve Mslmandmanl moda oldu. YA Trkiye de neler oldu?

Erbakan Hoca yeniden siyasete dnd, Ecevit ten deibret almad. AKP ye kar tek alternatif olduunu

syledi.

40 yl sonra dnya nasl olacak?

14:59 | 19 Ekim 2010

Amerikal nl dnrlerden Alvin Toffler'ntahminlerine gre, gelecek 40 yl iinde kadnlarimdiye kadar benzeri grlmemi biimde iktidarda
http://yerelce.wordpress.com/2010/10/19/akp-iktidari-yikimda-ve-farkliklari-azdiran-politikalarinda-inat-ederse/http://yerelce.wordpress.com/2010/10/19/akp-iktidari-yikimda-ve-farkliklari-azdiran-politikalarinda-inat-ederse/http://yerelce.wordpress.com/2010/10/19/akp-iktidari-yikimda-ve-farkliklari-azdiran-politikalarinda-inat-ederse/http://yerelce.wordpress.com/2010/10/19/akp-iktidari-yikimda-ve-farkliklari-azdiran-politikalarinda-inat-ederse/http://yerelce.wordpress.com/2010/10/19/akp-iktidari-yikimda-ve-farkliklari-azdiran-politikalarinda-inat-ederse/http://yerelce.wordpress.com/2010/10/19/akp-iktidari-yikimda-ve-farkliklari-azdiran-politikalarinda-inat-ederse/http://yerelce.wordpress.com/2010/10/19/almanya-turk-halkina-dostlukla-baglidir/http://yerelce.wordpress.com/2010/10/19/almanya-turk-halkina-dostlukla-baglidir/http://yerelce.wordpress.com/2010/10/19/almanya-turk-halkina-dostlukla-baglidir/http://yerelce.wordpress.com/2010/10/19/almanya-turk-halkina-dostlukla-baglidir/http://yerelce.wordpress.com/2010/10/19/almanya-turk-halkina-dostlukla-baglidir/http://yerelce.wordpress.com/2010/10/19/akp-iktidari-yikimda-ve-farkliklari-azdiran-politikalarinda-inat-ederse/http://yerelce.wordpress.com/2010/10/19/akp-iktidari-yikimda-ve-farkliklari-azdiran-politikalarinda-inat-ederse/http://yerelce.wordpress.com/2010/10/19/almanya-turk-halkina-dostlukla-baglidir/


12/17

olacak, Bat'ya Mslman gartacak ve artk "ie gitmek"gerekmeyecek.

1970'de yazd "Gelecek oku"kitabyla, gelecek bilimi olarak daadlandrlan "ftrolojinin"nclerinden olan Alvin

Toffler'n, kitabnn yaynlanmasnn 40. yldnmnedeniyle bir ekiple birlikte hazrlad rapordaki

tahminlere gre, Gney Afrika nemli bir ekonomikgelime kaydederken, Orta Dou'da dini ve etnikhareketlerden kaynaklanan karklklar hakimolacak.

ABD'nin bakenti Washington'da dzenlenen birtoplantda aklanan "Gelecek 40 Yl iin 40 Tahmin"adl rapora gre, giderek daha fazla insan, bykretici ve datclara daha az baml olmak iinkendi sebzelerini yetitirecek ve kendi gdalarnretecek.

Yksek hzl internet standart olacak ve bu sayedeyaygnlaacak videokonferans sayesinde almakiin artk broya gitmeye hi gerek kalmayacak veinsanlar dnyann neresinde olursa olsunlaraltklar ilerini yapabilecekler.

Kuzey Kore ve ran gibi sadece bir avu lke "haydutdevletler" olarak deerlendirilmeye devam ederken,

dnyann en byk ekonomik gc haline gelecekolan in, faiz oranlarn etkilemek iin Brezilya ve
http://www.milliyet.com.tr/index/Muslumanhttp://www.milliyet.com.tr/index/Afrikahttp://www.milliyet.com.tr/index/Orta%20Doguhttp://www.milliyet.com.tr/index/internethttp://www.milliyet.com.tr/index/Korehttp://www.milliyet.com.tr/index/Iranhttp://www.milliyet.com.tr/index/Cinhttp://www.milliyet.com.tr/index/Brezilyahttp://www.milliyet.com.tr/index/Muslumanhttp://www.milliyet.com.tr/index/Afrikahttp://www.milliyet.com.tr/index/Orta%20Doguhttp://www.milliyet.com.tr/index/internethttp://www.milliyet.com.tr/index/Korehttp://www.milliyet.com.tr/index/Iranhttp://www.milliyet.com.tr/index/Cinhttp://www.milliyet.com.tr/index/Brezilya


13/17

Hindistan ile enerji ihtiyacn karlamak iin deVenezuela ve baz Afrika lkeleriyle ibirlii yapacak.

ABD, N'E BAIMLI HALE GELECEK Gelecek 40yln tahminine gre, ABD de, yenilenebilir enerjisistemleri, melez motorlu otomobil, radar ve silahretebilmek iin gerekli olan yeni deerli metallernedeniyle in'e baml olacak.

Alternatif enerji biimlerinin gelimesi dolaysyla

Suudi Arabistan, ran, Irak ve Krfez lkeleri ileRusya ve Venezuela'nn "fosil yaktlar sonrasdnyann kaybedenleri" olaca kaydedilen raporda,Hristiyanln gney yarkre lkelerinde yaylrken,daha fazla sayda Mslmann Bat lkelerine gedecei tahmin ediliyor.

Toffler'n ngrlerine gre, iklim deiikliiatmalara yol aacak, buzullarn erimesi yenipetrol ve mineral zenginliklerinin kefedilmesinisalayacak. Sularn ykselmesi, deniz kylarboyunca yaayan halkn kitleler halinde bakayerlere gne yol aacak.

Nfusun giderek yalanmas nedeniyle ihtiyarlarnbakm giderlerinin drde katlanaca ve Amerikanyaam sigortas sistemlerinin bugnk ekliyledevam edemeyecei ngrsnde bulunan Toffler,yeni sigorta sisteminin ne olacann bilinmediini,ancak toplumun ihtiyalarna uygun bir biimde

olacan belirtiyor.
http://www.milliyet.com.tr/index/Hindistanhttp://www.milliyet.com.tr/index/Venezuelahttp://www.milliyet.com.tr/index/Suudi%20Arabistanhttp://www.milliyet.com.tr/index/Irakhttp://www.milliyet.com.tr/index/Rusyahttp://www.milliyet.com.tr/index/iklimhttp://www.milliyet.com.tr/index/sigortahttp://www.milliyet.com.tr/index/Hindistanhttp://www.milliyet.com.tr/index/Venezuelahttp://www.milliyet.com.tr/index/Suudi%20Arabistanhttp://www.milliyet.com.tr/index/Irakhttp://www.milliyet.com.tr/index/Rusyahttp://www.milliyet.com.tr/index/iklimhttp://www.milliyet.com.tr/index/sigorta


14/17

Gelecek 40 yln tahminine gre, kadnlar, imdiyekadar grlmemi bir oranda nemli grevleregelecekler.

GIGABYTE YERNE PETABYTE Toffler ve ekibi, bilgiiletimindeki hzn art dolaysyla, dnyann,gigabyte zerinde bir veri depolama birimi ve biliimkuvveti olan "petabyte kainatna" gireceingrsnde de bulunuyor.

Alvin Toffler, Gelecek oku'nda yazdklaryla, bilimve teknolojinin ok hzl gelieceini, bu nedenleinsanlarn ounun bilgi bombardmannsindirmekte glk ekeceini ve gerek yaamlabalarn koparmaya alacaklarn ncedenkestirmiti.

Toffler'n, kitabnda bilgi iletiminde hzn artaca,ecinsel evliliklerin gndeme gelecei ve evrefelaketlerinin oalaca gibi baka ngrleri dedoru kmt.

Sosyolog Toffler'n birok dile evrilen kitab,

imdiye kadar 6 milyondan fazla satt.

Dnya ekonomisinde eksen kayyor

ABDnin dnya ekonomisindeki pay, 1980de yzde24.58 iken, 2011 ylnda yzde 20nin, 2015de yzde

18.4n altna inecek. in, 1980-2015 dneminde paynyzde 2.19dan yzde 16.96ya, Hindistan 2.45den


15/17

yzde 6.28e karacak. Trkiyenin 1980de ald yzde1.02lik pay bu yl yzde 1.27ye kacak.

Dnya ekonomisinde eksen son srat gelimekte olanlkelere doru kayyor. Klasik sanayilemi lkeler, ABD,Japonya, Almanya, ngiltere, Fransa, talya, Kanada,Hollanda, Belika, sve gibi lkelerin dnyaekonomisindeki arl gittike azalrken, in, Hindistan,Gney Kore, Endonezya, Trkiye, Malezya, Tayland,Msr gibi gelimekte olan lkeler dnya ekonomisinde

giderek daha fazla pay kapyor. Uluslararas ParaFonunun (IMF) verilerinden derlenen bilgilere gre,ABDnin dnya ekonomisindeki pay, satn alma gcparitesine gre gayri safi yurtii hasla (SGP-GSYH)baznda, 1980de yzde 24.585 iken, 2011 ylnda yzde20nin altna, yzde 19.884e gerileyecek.

inin pay 8 kat artacak

ABDnin pay 2015de ise yzde 18.4n altna inecek.Dnya ekonomisinden aldklar pay, Japonya, Almanya,ngiltere, Fransa, talya, Belika gibi lkelerde dahadramatik bir ekilde decek. 1980lerde dnyann ikincibyk ekonomisi konumundaki Japonyann 1980deald yzde 9.17lik pay, 2015de yzde 5.15,

Almanyann pay yzde 6.68den yzde 3.42ye,ngilterede yzde 4.29dan yzde 2.74e, Fransadayzde 4.72den yzde 2.62ye, talyada yzde 4.47denyzde 2.08e, Belikada yzde 0.85den yzde 0.47yegerileyecek.

Buna karn, in dnya ekonomisinden ald pay bu

dnemde 8 kat, Hindistan 2.5 artracak. in, 1980-2015


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dneminde payn yzde 2.19dan yzde 16.96ya,Hindistan 2.45den yzde 6.28e karacak.

1980de 13nc byk ekonomi olan ve sralamada,Hindistan, Meksika, Kanada, spanya gibi lkeleringerisinde kalan in, o tarihte talyann yars kadar satnalma gce paritesine gre GSYHsi vard. 2015detalyann 8.5 kat, ABDye yakn birSGP-GSYHdzeyine ulaacak.

Sanayilemi 7 byk lkenin (ABD, Japonya, Almanya,ngiltere, Fransa, talya, Kanada) oluturduu G-7 (Grup7), 1980 ylnda dnya ekonomisinin yzde 56.3,1992de yzde 51.4 2010 ylnda yzde 40.1iolutururken, bu oran 2015 ylnda yzde 36ya inecek.Bu karn, Brezilya, Rusya, Hindistan ve inden oluanve bu lkelerin ngilizce yazlnn ilk harflerindenoluturulan bir tabirle BRIC olarak adlandrlan bulkelerin 1992de dnya ekonomisindeki pay yzde14.53 iken, bu yl yzde 24.48e, 2015 ylnda ise yzde29.08e ykselecek.

Trkiyenin dnya ekonomisinde 1980de ald yzde1.025lik pay, 1992 ylnda yzde 1.188e, 2010 ylndayzde 1.274e karken, 2015 ylnda yzde 1.232ye

inecek ama 16nclktaki sras deimeyecek.

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iktisatlar ucuz emek,ham maddeye yaknlk ve teknolojikullanmn hibir zaman gzard edemez!UDou veGAsya lkeleri emek yogun ve teknolojiyi bir arada

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