ekonometri Ödevi

7/24/2019 Ekonometri devi

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T.C. KOCAEL NVERSTES

SOSYAL BLMLER ENSTTS

KTSAT ANABLM DALIKTSAT POLTKASI YKSEK LSANS PROGRAMI

IMKB ENDEKS VE SELM MAKROEKONOMK DEKENLER

ZERNE EKONOMETRK ANALZ

AHMET TALHA ZDEMR

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KOCAEL 0"5


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*$1,/-,rBRNC BLM........................................................................................... 4

1.ARATIRMANIN AMACI VE NEM.............................................................4

1.1. Aratrmann Amac.................................................................................4KNC BLM.............................................................................................4

LTERATR TARAMASI.................................................................................4

2. DEKENLER ARASI LKLER................................................................4

2.1. !""# S#n#$! %!&at'ar !'# D()!* K+r+ !'!,!"!..................................................4

2.2 !""# S#n#$! %!&at'ar !'# A'tn !'!,!"!...........................................................5

2.- !""# S#n#$! %!&at'ar !'# ara Ar* /M10 !'!,!"!..............................................5

NC BLM......................................................................................... 6

-.DEKENLERN BELRLENMES................................................................6

-.1. S#!'#n D#3!,#n'#r.................................................................................6

-.1.1 m,4 155 En$#,"! /IMKB0...................................................................6

-.1.2 ara Ar* /M10................................................................................15

-.1.- A'tn /6RA0....................................................................................22

-.1.7 D()!* K+r+ /8SD0...........................................................................28

-.2 Aratrmann M#)"!m"#''!, Et,!"!...............................................................35

-.- Aratrmann 6#n#' Tr#n$ Et,!"!................................................................36DRDNC BLM...................................................................................40

7.M9DEL TAMNLER...............................................................................40

7.1 D:3r+"a' ; D:3r+"a' M:$#' Ta D:3r+"a' M:$#' Ta


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S9N8......................................................................................................50

Ka&na,a.................................................................................................... 51

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B+ a'ma K:ca#'! n!)#r"!t#"! S:"&a' B!'!m'#r En"t!t" ,t!"at Ana4!'!m

Da' ,t!"at :'!t!,a" @,"#, L!"an" r:=ram E,:n:m#tr!, Ta

15 )# 15 ' &''ar$a 4ata Am#r!,a B!r'#!, D#)'#t'#r! /ABD0 :'ma, *#r#

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,:n+&'a !'=!'! &a,'am'ar )# 4+n+n 4!r $#)am :'ara, $a ":n+'ar $#3!m!t!r. &'#

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6/57

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V# ":n :'ara, m:$#'!m!*!n art, t#r!m!n!n =ra!3! aa3$a ,art'mtr.

3


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RESID

KNC BLM

LTERATR TARAMASI

!""# "#n#$! #n$#,"! )# ma,r:#,:n:m!, $#3!,#n'#r ara"n$a,! !'!,!'#r!n

!nc#'#n$!3! a'ma'ar$a =#n#' :'ara, $()!* ,+r+ Gara ar* "ana&! r#t!m #n$#,"!

#n'a"&:n a'tn !&at )# $ t!car#t $#n=#"! $#3!,#n'#r!n!n ,+''an'$3

=(r'm#,t#$!r. /A'! ER KA@A O ER 25110 B!* 4+ $#3!,#n'#r$#n ara Ar*

/M10 D:'ar K+r+ /8SD0 )# A'tn !&atn #'# a'aca3*. L!t#ratr a'mam*

#"na"n$a #'# a'$3m* $#3!,#n'#r'# !'=!'! aa3$a,! ":n+'ara +'a'$3

=(r'mtr.

. DEKENLER ARASI LKLER

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n#=at! &(n' 4!r !'!,! t#"G!t #tm!'#r$!r. C

:'$+3+n+ :rta&a ,:&m+t+r. /A66ARAL 110

S:#n#n )# #nn!=ar /10 !"# 15;1 $(n#m!n! a&',

1->1 $(n#m! SO ?55 #n$#,"! )# ABD $:'ar a&', )#r!'#r! ,+''an'ara,

&aGt,'ar a'ma$a ,"a $(n#m$# !t &(n' 4!r !'!,! t#"G!t #$#r,#n +*+n $(n#m$#

4!r !'!,!n!n :'ma$3n :rta&a ,:&m+t+r. AJa&! )$. /10 =#'!m! )# =#'!m#,t#

:'an ',#'#r !!n &aGm :'$+,'ar +*+n $(n#m! ,aG"a&an a&', r#,an" 4a*n$a )#r!

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!!n 4!r n#$#n"#''!, 4+'+nma$3 ":n+c+na )arm'ar$r. /!a O Ra!"t!,rar' !'!,! 4+'+n$+3+ ":n+c+na +'a'mtr. /KASMAN 255-0

@+,ar$a,! a'ma'ar$an $a an'a'aca3 *#r# !""# S#n#$! %!&at'ar !'# D()!*

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9/57

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M+,

"rm'#r$!r. C::G#r /170 N:*ar )# Ta&':r /10 taran$an &aG'an a'ma'ar$a

!"# Gara ar*n$a,! artn

$# artma"na "#4#G :'ma,ta$r. /A'! ER KA@A O ER 25110

NC BLM

.DEKENLERN BELRLENMES

.". S,*-,$ D,&/,$-,+B+ a'mam*$a $(rt ma,r:#,:n:m!, $#3!,#n ara"n$a,! !'!,!&!

!nc#'#c#3!*. Ba3m' D#3!,#n :'ara, IMKB 155 #n$#,"! Ba3m"* D#3!,#n:'ara, !"# M1 ara Ar* /M10 D:'ar K+r+ )# 6ram A'tn !&at'arn #'# a'aca3*.

M:$#'!m!*$# $#3!,#n'#r! ,"a't'm

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10/57

55? an'am'', $*#&!n$#n ,, :'ma" n#$#n!&'# m:$#'!m!* )# Garam#tr#'#r!m!*

an'am' =(rn&:r.

!m$! m:$#'!m!*! m#)"!m"#''!, )# tr#n$ #t,!"! ana'!*! !'# "#r!m!*!

arn$raca3*.

."." '/ "00 E$1,/6 :IMKBStat!"t!c r:4.

C 75.7-2 ?7.?7- 11.-2 0.0000[TREND\- 5.55-211 7.-E>5? ?.175-7 0.0000

R>"+ar#$ 5.-2?-1 M#an $#G#n$#nt )ar -5555.55A$J+"t#$ R>"+ar#$ 5.-2-12 S.D. $#G#n$#nt )ar 212.S.E. : r#=r#""!:n 215.5-1 A,a!,# !n: cr!t#r!:n 25.15S+m "+ar#$ r#"!$ 1.5E15 ScU+!nn cr!t#r. 25.257?%>"tat!"t!c 727-.27 D+r4!n>at":n "tat 5.17?r:4/%>"tat!"t!c0 5.555555

Aa3$a !"# 4!r )# !,!nc! $#r#c#$#n tr#n$ #t,!"!n! 4!r'!,t# aratra4!'m#, !!n

#)!#F" #,rann$a Yls MPIMKB C @trend @trend^2Z :rm'n &a*ara, #'$# #$!'#n

":n+ca =(r# 4!r!nc! )# !,!nc! $#r#c# tr#n$ #t,!"!n!n Gr:4 $#3#r! 55? an'am

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D#G#n$#nt Var!a4'# MIMKBM#t


16/57

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17/57

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#t,!"!n!n Gr:4 $#3#r! 55? an'am $*#&!n$#n ,, :'+G 62#2/6,- )-#+#/

#$-#'-%1%+. B!r!nc! !,!nc! )# nc $#r#c#$#n 2+,$1 ,2/6 ?#+1%+.

D#G#n$#nt Var!a4'# MIMKBM#t


18/57

D#3!,#n!m!*!n tr#n$ #t,!"!n$#n a&rtr'ma" ":n+c+ :'+an =ra!,

-30,000

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19/57

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.". P#+# A+@% :M"at":n "tat 5.55--2

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$#3!,#n'#r!n "a

$#3#r!n! #,'#r#, :'+aca, n! )#r!'#r!n =ra!3! aa3$a$r.

18


22/57

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Art, m#)"!m"#''!,t#n arn$r'm M1 $#3#r!n!n /&an! MM10 tr#n$

$#3#r'#r!n! a'ma,.

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23/57

D#G#n$#nt Var!a4'# MM1M#t"tat!"t!c 17?.7? D+r4!n>at":n "tat 5.17?111r:4/%>"tat!"t!c0 5.555555


#)!#F" #,rann$a Yls MPM1 C @trend @trend^2Z :rm'n &a*ara, #'$# #$!'#n":n+ca =(r# 4!r!nc! )# !,!nc! $#r#c# tr#n$ #t,!"!n!n Gr:4 $#3#r! 55? an'am

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24/57

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25/57

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C 71. 17-5-. .157 0.0000[TREND 1711. 7577-.- 7.?7 0.0000

[TREND\2 >-27.-1 -5?.7175 >15.- 0.0000[TREND\- 1.- 5.?1? 2.225 0.0000

R>"+ar#$ 5.--2 M#an $#G#n$#nt )ar 5555555A$J+"t#$ R>"+ar#$ 5.--2 S.D. $#G#n$#nt )ar 11--1S.E. : r#=r#""!:n -??. A,a!,# !n: cr!t#r!:n -7.157S+m "+ar#$ r#"!$ 1.27E1 ScU+!nn cr!t#r. -7.25%>"tat!"t!c 1?22.1 D+r4!n>at":n "tat 5.771-

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26/57


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31/57


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D#G#n$#nt Var!a4'# M6RAM#tStat!"t!c P+).

C ?.--7 1.5?2 ?.2722 0.0000[TREND 5.5525 5.511771 5.1--?- 0.!54

[TREND\- -.?E>5 1.2-E>5 -2.1-2 0.0000

R>"+ar#$ 5.??1 M#an $#G#n$#nt )ar -?.55555A$J+"t#$ R>"+ar#$ 5.?7? S.D. $#G#n$#nt )ar --.?17-S.E. : r#=r#""!:n .1-77 A,a!,# !n: cr!t#r!:n .2-S+m "+ar#$ r#"!$ 1?1.12 ScU+!nn cr!t#r. .522%>"tat!"t!c -21.2? D+r4!n>at":n "tat 5.527r:4/%>"tat!"t!c0 5.555555

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32/57

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29


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D#G#n$#nt Var!a4'# M8SAM#tStat!"t!c P+).

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. A+#&2%+'#$%$ G,$,- T+,$1 E2/6M:$#'!m!*!n =#n#'! m#)"!m"#''!,t#n arn$r'$,tan ":nra tr#n$ #t,!"!n$#n $#

arn$ra'm 4+n+n !!n$# Y%$ $NIMKB C $NM1 $NR! $N#$! @TRENDZ

:rm'n +&=+'ar"a,

D#G#n$#nt Var!a4'# SNIMKBM#t


43/57

!m$! !,!nc! $#r#c#$#n tr#n$ #t,!"!n!n t#"G!t! !!n Y%$ $NIMKB C $NM1

$NR! $N#$! @TREND^2Z :rm'n +&=+'ar"a,

D#G#n$#nt Var!a4'# SNIMKB

M#t5? 7.175 0.0000

SN6RA >.521 7?.552? >1.?21 0."94SN8SA >?1.2? 125.55 >.27 0.0000

[TREND\- 1.15E>1 -.2E>5? 2.?E>17 ".0000

R>"+ar#$ 5.17- M#an $#G#n$#nt )ar 22555.55A$J+"t#$ R>"+ar#$ 5.17-77 S.D. $#G#n$#nt )ar 51.2S.E. : r#=r#""!:n ?7-7.7-1 A,a!,# !n: cr!t#r!:n 25.5?7?S+m "+ar#$ r#"!$ .E5 ScU+!nn cr!t#r. 25.515

%>"tat!"t!c 1.752? D+r4!n>at":n "tat 5.2722?r:4/%>"tat!"t!c0 5.555555

40


44/57

Tr#n$ $#3!,#n!n!n Gr:4 $#3#r! 55? t#n 4&, :'$+3+ !!n *$3 1,+,3,1,$

2+,$1 ,2/6 =)/2+.

B!r )# !,!nc! $#r#c#$#n tr#n$ #t,!"!n!n t#"G!t! !!n Y%$ $NIMKB C $NM1$NR! $N#$! @TREND @TREND^2Z :rm'n +&=+'ar"a,

D#G#n$#nt Var!a4'# SNIMKBM#t5? 7.122 0.0000

SN6RA >.521 7?.517 >1.?227 0."!0SN8SA >?1.2? 1215.- >.??2 0.0000

[TREND >.E>1- .27 >.E>17 ".0000[TREND\- .5E>1 .2E>5? .E>17 ".0000

R>" +ar#$ 5.17- M#an $# #n$#nt )ar 22555.55A$J+"t#$ R>"+ar#$ 5.11?2 S.D. $#G#n$#nt )ar 51.2S.E. : r#=r#""!:n ?77-.-2 A,a!,# !n: cr!t#r!:n 25.5172S+m "+ar#$ r#"!$ .E5 ScU+!nn cr!t#r. 25.5575

%>"tat!"t!c 17.-7 D+r4!n>at":n "tat 5.2722?r:4/%>"tat!"t!c0 5.555555

41


45/57

Tr#n$ $#3!,#n!n!n Gr:4 $#3#r! 55? t#n 4&, :'$+3+ !!n +$3 ?, *$3

1,+,3,1,$ 2+,$1 ,2/6 =)/2+.

,!nc! )# nc $#r#c#$#n tr#n$ #t,!"!n!n t#"G!t! !!n Y%$ $NIMKB C $NM1$NR! $N#$! @TREND^2 @TREND^3Z :rm'n +&=+'ar"a,

D#G#n$#nt Var!a4'# SNIMKBM#t5? 7.1?5- 0.0000

SN6RA >.521 7?.1?5- >1.?2-7- 0."!SN8SA >?1.2? 1212. >.7?7 0.0000

[TREND .57E>12 -7.?22?7 2.--E>1- ".0000[TREND\2 >.1-E>17 5.2555 >2.-E>1- ".0000[TREND\- 1.-E>1 5.555?? 2.2E>1- ".0000

R>"+ar#$ 5.17- M#an $#G#n$#nt )ar 22555.55A$J+"t#$ R>"+ar#$ 5.17- S.D. $#G#n$#nt )ar 51.2

S.E. : r#=r#""!:n ?7?2.- A,a!,# !n: cr!t#r!:n 25.5S+m "+ar#$ r#"!$ .E5 ScU+!nn cr!t#r. 25.1515

42


46/57

%>"tat!"t!c 12.1 D+r4!n>at":n "tat 5.2722?r:4/%>"tat!"t!c0 5.555555

Tr#n$ $#3!,#n!n!n Gr:4 $#3#r! 55? t#n 4&, :'$+3+ !!n +$3 /$3 ?,

*$3 1,+,3,1,$ 2+,$1 ,2/6 =)/2+.

DRDNC BLM

4.MODEL TAHMNLER

4." D)+6#- D)+6#- M)1,- T#'$-,+

D:3r+"a' M:$#' a$n 4a3m' )# 4a3m"* $#3!,#n'#r!n &an! #!t'!3!n "a3 )#

":' tarann $:3r+"a' 4!!m$# :'ma" #,'!n$# !a$# #$!'!r.

B+ 4('m$# #'# a'$3m* 4a3m' $#3!,#n!m!* /IMKB0 !'# 4a3m"*

$#3!,#n'#r!m!* / M1 6RA 8SA0 ara"n$a,! !'!,!&! m#)"!m"#''!, )# tr#n

#t,!"!n$#n arn$r'm

$NIMKB C $NM1 $NR! $N#$!Z :rm'&'# )#r!'#r!m!*# 4a,a'm

D#G#n$#nt Var!a4'# SNIMKBM#t


47/57

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

-20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Se'ies( Residuals

Sa*+le 1990M01 2015M09

se'.ati/s 309

Mea -3$11e-12

Media 212$3221Mai*u* 16815$57

Mii*u* -20886$55

Std$ De.$ 5399$027

Seess -0$664839

Ku't/sis 6$198243

a'ue-Be'a 154$4588

'/ailit 0$000000

nc#'!,'# M:$#'$# SN6RA /Arn$r'm 6ram A'tn0 "#r!"! r:4 $#3#r! 55?$#3#r!n!n *#r!n$# :'$+3+ !!n 62#2/6,- )-#+#/ #$-#'6%@%1%+. ]ar+# B#ra t#"t

":n+ $#3#r! 1?77? $!r. K!>Kar# ta4': $#3#r! ? !'# ,ar'atr'$3n$an ]ar+#

B#ra $#3#r!n!n 4&, :'$+3+n+ =(rr* &an! art, t#r!m'#r!m!* $)+'#- 1#%-%'-%

1,-1+.

4. D)+6#- L)#+2'/ M)1,- T#'$-,+B+ m:$#'$# 4a3m' $#3!,#n!n $:3r+"a' )# 4a3m"* $#3!,#n'#r!n ':=ar!tm!,

&an! #!t'!3!n "a3 tarann $:3r+"a' )# ":' tarann ':=ar!tm!, 4!!m$# :'ma"#,'!n$# !a$# #$!'!r.

Ta


48/57

r:4/%>"tat!"t!c0 5.555555

0

10

20

30

40

50

-20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Se'ies( Residuals

Sa*+le 1990M01 2015M09

se'.ati/s 309

Mea 8$41e-12Media 260$9398

Mai*u* 16688$76

Mii*u* -20602$61

Std$ De.$ 5573$659

Seess -0$535422

Ku't/sis 5$717125

a'ue-Be'a 109$8170

'/ailit 0$000000

E)!#F" ,t"n$an $a =(r'#c#3! *#r# m:$#'$# L96SN6RA /L:=.

Arn$r'm 6ram A'tn0 )# C "#r!'#r!n!n r:4 $#3#r! 55? $#3#r!n!n *#r!n$# :'$+3+

!!n 62#2/6,- )-#+#/ #$-#'6%@%1%+. ]ar+# B#ra t#"t ":n+ $#3#r! 1515 $!r. K!>

Kar# ta4': $#3#r! ? !'# ,ar'atr'$3n$an ]ar+# B#ra $#3#r!n!n 4&, :'$+3+n+

=(rr* &an! #+2%/ 2,+'-,+'@ $)+'#- 1#%-%'-% 1,-1+.

4. L)#+2'/ D)+6#- M)1,- T#'$-,+B+ m:$#'$# 4a3m' $#3!,#n!n ':=ar!tm!, )# 4a3m"* $#3!,#n'#r!n $:3r+"a'

&an! #!t'!3!n "a3 tarann ':=ar!tm!, )# ":' tarann $:3r+"a' 4!!m$# :'ma"

#,'!n$# !a$# #$!'!r.

Ta


49/57

C 15.521 5.11?2? .77 0.0000SNM1 1.55E>5 -.5E>5 2.?1? 0.0"04

SN6RA >5.551- 5.55-7?7 >5.?-25?5 0.585"SN8SA >5.7?-? 5.52? >7.221 0.0000

R>"+ar#$ 5.5275 M#an $#G#n$#nt )ar .-5A$J+"t#$ R>"+ar#$ 5.5-7? S.D. $#G#n$#nt )ar 5.7---11S.E. : r#=r#""!:n 5.7151 A,a!,# !n: cr!t#r!:n 1.151-7S+m "+ar#$ r#"!$ ?-.5?1 ScU+!nn cr!t#r. 1.1211??%>"tat!"t!c .1757 D+r4!n>at":n "tat 5.2?71r:4/%>"tat!"t!c0 5.55555

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

-4$0 -3$5 -3$0 -2$5 -2$0 -1$5 -1$0 -0$5 0$0 0$5

Se'ies( Residuals

Sa*+le 1990M01 2015M09

se'.ati/s 309

Mea 1$27e-15

Media 0$061512

Mai*u* 0$632619

Mii*u* -3$902072

Std$ De.$ 0$415054

Seess -5$034799

Ku't/sis 38$49975

a'ue-Be'a 17530$98

'/ailit 0$000000

E)!#F" ,t"n$an $a =(r'#c#3! *#r# m:$#'$# SN6RA /Arn$r'm 6ram

A'tn0 "#r!"! r:4 $#3#r! 55? $#3#r!n!n *#r!n$# :'$+3+ !!n 62#2/6,- )-#+#/

#$-#'6%@%1%+. ]ar+# B#ra t#"t ":n+ $#3#r! 1?-5 $!r. K!>Kar# ta4': $#3#r! ?

!'# ,ar'atr'$3n$an ]ar+# B#ra $#3#r!n!n 4&, :'$+3+n+ =(rr* &an! art,

t#r!m'#r!m!* $)+'#- 1#%-%'-% 1,-1+.

4.4 L)#+2'/ L)#+2'/ M)1,- T#'$-,+B+ m:$#'$# 4a3m' $#3!,#n!n ':=ar!tm!, )# 4a3m"* $#3!,#n'#r!n

':=ar!tm!, &an! #!t'!3!n "a3 tarann ':=ar!tm!, )# ":' tarann ':=ar!tm!, 4!!m$#

:'ma" #,'!n$# !a$# #$!'!r.

Ta


50/57

Var!a4'# C:#!c!#nt St$. Err:r t>Stat!"t!c P+).

C .15? 1.5?1 .17?2 0.0000L96/SNM10 5.11775 5.5155 1.571 0.0595L96/SN6RA0 >5.5125 5.55? >5.225- 0.!"!L96/SN8SA0 >5.2517 5.57?22 >7.7?1 0.0000

R>"+ar#$ 5.5527 M#an $#G#n$#nt )ar .-5A$J+"t#$ R>"+ar#$ 5.5?- S.D. $#G#n$#nt )ar 5.7---11S.E. : r#=r#""!:n 5.7251 A,a!,# !n: cr!t#r!:n 1.1121S+m "+ar#$ r#"!$ ?7.51175 ScU+!nn cr!t#r. 1.1-7-%>"tat!"t!c .17 D+r4!n>at":n "tat 5.271???r:4/%>"tat!"t!c0 5.555112

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

-4$0 -3$5 -3$0 -2$5 -2$0 -1$5 -1$0 -0$5 0$0 0$5

Se'ies( Residuals

Sa*+le 1990M01 2015M09

se'.ati/s 309

Mea 2$54e-15

Media 0$066496

Mai*u* 0$629093

Mii*u* -3$887941

Std$ De.$ 0$418762

Seess -4$818451

Ku't/sis 36$52825

a'ue-Be'a 15669$05

'/ailit 0$000000

E)!#F" ,t"n$an $a =(r'#c#3! *#r# m:$#'$# L96SN6RA /L:=ar!tm!,

Arn$r'm 6ram A'tn0 )# L96SNM1 /L:=. Arn$r'm M10 "#r!'#r!n!n r:4

$#3#r! 55? $#3#r!n!n *#r!n$# :'$+3+ !!n 62#2/6,- )-#+#/ #$-#'6%@%1%+. ]ar+#

B#ra t#"t ":n+ $#3#r! 1?5? $!r. K!>Kar# ta4': $#3#r! ? !'#

,ar'atr'$3n$an ]ar+# B#ra $#3#r!n!n 4&, :'$+3+n+ =(rr* &an! art,

t#r!m'#r!m!* $)+'#- 1#%-%'-% 1,-1+.

BENC BLM

5.YAPILAN STATSTKSEL TESTLER

5." ;T,62

47


51/57

:,'+ r#=r#"&:n$a r#=r#"&:n "a4!t!

5 41^42^_^4, ^5 /,"m! #3!m ,at"a&'ar "r$an ar,' $#3!'$!r.0

1 41 42

_ 4, 5 /,"m! #3!m ,at"a&'ar "r$an ar,'$r.0

:'ara, :rm'# #$!'!r. S#!'#n 4#''! 4!r an'am $*#&! )# a,'a&c $#3!,#n

"a&" !'# "#r4#"t'!, $#r#c#"!n# =(r# % ta4': $#3#r! 4+'+n+r. rn#,t# #'$# #$!'#n %

$#3#r! % ta4': $#3#r!n$#n ,,"#

5. T T,62

:,'+ r#=r#"&:n$a m:$#'!n$#

4!r #,!'$# "r$an ar,'$r $! &:r+m'anr.

5. O-#6%-%/ :P+)< T,62

B+ra$a !"#

$a %>Gr:4 $#3#r! !"# m:$#' !"tat!"t!,"#' :'ara, an'am' :'aca,tr.

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T,62

48


52/57

Ba3m' $#3!,#n!n Ba3m"* $#3!,#n'#r taran$an &*$# ,a', ,"mnn

a,'an$3n !a$# #$#n 4!r :ran$r. 5 !'# 1 ara"n$a $#3#r a'r )# 1 # &a,'at,a

a,'ama ,a4!'!t!n!n artt3nn =("t#r=#"!$!r.

ALTINCI BLM

.MODEL TESPT

." PE T,62

B+ t#"t! &aGar,#n (nc#'!,'! :'ara,

':=ar!tma"n a'ara, )# D:=> D:= m:$#'!m!*!n 4a3m' $#3!,#n!n# a!t =#r#,

$#3#r'#r!n$#n ,ar'ara, #'$# #$!'#n /EANT%LL0 "#r!&! ':=>':= m:$#'!*$# 7.

D#3!,#n :'ara, ,+''anaca3*.

De+edet a'iale( &,#S"IMKB

Met:/d( &east Sua'es

Date( 11;18;15 !i*e( 14(30

Sa*+le( 1990M01 2015M09

Icluded /se'.ati/s( 309

a'iale


53/57

'/F-statistic 0$000000

+'at3m* ta7. 2-.172- >-.71 5.555-SNM1 5.555212 2.1E>5? .125 5.5555

SN8SA >7?.71 21.-? >1?.?222 5.5555PELOG;DD """8."4 !.50 8.08! 0.0000

R>"+ar#$ 5.2 M#an $#G#n$#nt )ar 22555.55A$J+"t#$ R>"+ar#$ 5.77 S.D. $#G#n$#nt )ar 51.2S.E. : r#=r#""!:n 2-.??7 A,a!,# !n: cr!t#r!:n 1.275S+m "+ar#$ r#"!$ 2.-E5 ScU+!nn cr!t#r. 1.722%>"tat!"t!c 21.2?7 D+r4!n>at":n "tat 5.?-55-r:4/%>"tat!"t!c0 5.555555

@#n! #,'#$!3!m!* ta


54/57

L:=>L:= m:$#' !'# $:=>$:= m:$#' ara"n$a 4!r "#!m &aGma, !"t#$!3!m!*$#

,+''an'a4!'#c#, 4!r $!3#r m:$#' $# BM t#"t!$!r. B+ t#"t! &aGar,#n 0 !ar#t'! :'$+3+ =(r'mtr. N#=at! $#3#r!n

':=ar!tma" a'nama&aca3 !!n 4+ $#3#r'#r! G:*!t!


55/57

SamG'# 15M51 251?M5Inc'+$#$ :4"#r)at!:n" -5

Var!a4'# C:#!c!#nt St$. Err:r t>Stat!"t!c r:4.

C >5.7572? 5.2-?71 >2.55-?? 5.5--L96/SN6RA0 >5.575 5.51-55 >7.?7 5.5555L96/SNM10 5.1-5- 5.5125 11.??22 5.5555

L96/SN8SA0 >5.21?- 5.5511 >2-.?52 5.5555LOGRDD 0.!"4 0.00840" !9.!44 0.0000

R67#+,1 0.8440 M#an $#G#n$#nt )ar .-5A$J+"t#$ R>"+ar#$ 5.-5 S.D. $#G#n$#nt )ar 5.7---11S.E. : r#=r#""!:n 5.527 A,a!,# !n: cr!t#r!:n >2.1-?-1S+m "+ar#$ r#"!$ 2.5 Sc2.5121L:= '!,#'!U+!nn cr!t#r. >2.112-%>"tat!"t!c 257.2 D+r4!n>at":n "tat 1.2?2727P+):;62#2623< 0.000000

,t$a Gr:4 $#3#r! $# an'am'$r =#$ ')1,-'@ + 2$ )-#+#/ #$-#'-%

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t#r" &(n' !'!,! =(*'m#,t#$!r.

B+ ":n+'ar n#t!c#"!n$# BM t#"t! ":n+c+na =(r# $:= ; $:= )#&a ':= ; ':=

m:$#''#r!n !,!"!n$# $# #,'#n#n $(r$nc Garam#tr#'#r!n Q+)Q 1,,+-,+ 005 $

#-2%$1# =#$ 62#262/6,- )-#+#/ #$-#'-%1%+. B 1+'1# PE 2,62$$ 1)+

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56/57

S:n+ :'ara, E )# BM t#"t'#r!n!n !,!"!n!n$# $# #,'#m! :'$+3+m+* $(r$nc

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