eionet meeting ‘energy and environment eea, copenhagen │ ils … · estimated effects of res...
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Eionet meeting ‘Energy and Environment
EEA, Copenhagen │ Ils Moorkens │ 27 May 2019
Linking renewable energy and air pollutant emissions
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• Introduction
• Effects of RES increase on AP emissions
• Method and data sources
• Important drivers and effects
• Conclusions
Content
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Introduction - RES report
Progress at technology level
Source: EEA RES report 2018https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/renewable-energy-in-europe-2018
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Introduction - RES report – co-benefits of RES
Source: EEA RES report 2018https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/renewable-energy-in-europe-2018
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Estimated effects of RES consumption increase 1/2
since 2005 on total NOx and SO2 pollutant emissions
as percentage of national total emissions (%, in 2015)
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Estimated effects of RES consumption increase 2/2
since 2005 on total VOCs and PM2.5 pollutant emissions
as percentage of national total emissions (%, in 2015)
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Estimated effects - important remarks
• Highest level of confidence at aggregated European level
• Effects on air pollutant emissions, not effects on air quality
• Many other factors influence the emission of air pollutants, not accounted for– E.g. replacement of old installations, increasing use of abatement
technologies, operating conditions and fuel switching
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Method – similar to impact on GHG emissions
• Eurostat based method
– Step 1: amount of RES consumed• in country x and year y
– Step 2: reference emission factors for Electricity and Heating of fossil fuels• primary energy use per unit x pollutant emission factor per fuel
• for NOx, SO2, PM10, PM2,5 and VOC
– Step 3: attribution to ETS and non ETS
• Counterfactual '2005-RES shares'
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But!
• Surplus emissions in case of technologies combusting renewable fuels
– Emission factors for solid, liquid, gaseous renewable fuels
– Multiplied with fuel combusted
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Data source - choice
• Eurostat Shares for RES consumption
• GAINS model historic datasets for IEF - scenario WPE2014-CLE
– Publicly available
– Several substances per GAINS category
• More detail than emissions statistics (NFR)
– Negotiations 2030 targets NECD 2016
– Consultations with national experts
• Does not mean by default full endorsement
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Important drivers
• Amount of RES consumed for H&C and for E
– Especially combustion of biomass
• Implied emission factors– Reference emission factors = primary energy use per unit x
implied emission factor per fuel per pollutant
– IEF for avoided fossil fuels (non combustion technologies)
– IEF for biofuels (combustion technologies)
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2005 – consumption RES-H&C, ETS and non ETS
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2015 – consumption RES-H&C, ETS and non ETS
Increase of 24% compared to 2005
Increase of 22% compared to 2005
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IEF heat non ETS – EU28 (kt/PJ)
0,000
0,020
0,040
0,060
0,080
0,100
2005 2010 2015 2020
NOx
0,000
0,050
0,100
0,150
2005 2010 2015 2020
SO2
0,000
0,025
0,050
0,075
2005 2010 2015 2020
VOC
0,000
0,100
0,200
0,300
0,400
2005 2010 2015 2020
PM2,5
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IEF heat non ETS – EU28 (kt/PJ)
0,000
0,020
0,040
0,060
0,080
0,100
2005 2010 2015 2020
NOx
0,000
0,050
0,100
0,150
2005 2010 2015 2020
SO2
0,000
0,025
0,050
0,075
2005 2010 2015 2020
VOC
0,000
0,100
0,200
0,300
0,400
2005 2010 2015 2020
PM2,5
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IEF heat ETS – EU28 (kt/PJ)
0,000
0,020
0,040
0,060
0,080
0,100
2005 2010 2015 2020
NOx
0,000
0,010
0,020
0,030
0,040
0,050
2005 2010 2015 2020
SO2
0,000
0,025
0,050
0,075
2005 2010 2015 2020
VOC
0,000
0,005
0,010
0,015
0,020
0,025
2005 2010 2015 2020
PM2,5
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IEF heat ETS – EU28 (kt/PJ)
0,000
0,020
0,040
0,060
0,080
0,100
2005 2010 2015 2020
NOx
0,000
0,010
0,020
0,030
0,040
0,050
2005 2010 2015 2020
SO2
0,000
0,025
0,050
0,075
2005 2010 2015 2020
VOC
0,000
0,005
0,010
0,015
0,020
0,025
2005 2010 2015 2020
PM2,5
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2005 and 2015 – consumption RES-E
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IEF electricity (kt/PJ) – EU28
0,000
0,050
0,100
0,150
0,200
0,250
0,300
0,350
2005 2010 2015 2020
NOx
0,000
0,100
0,200
0,300
2005 2010 2015 2020
SO2
0,000
0,025
0,050
0,075
2005 2010 2015 2020
VOC
0,000
0,005
0,010
0,015
2005 2010 2015 2020
PM2,5
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IEF electricity – EU28
0,000
0,050
0,100
0,150
0,200
0,250
0,300
0,350
2005 2010 2015 2020
NOx
0,000
0,100
0,200
0,300
2005 2010 2015 2020
SO2
0,000
0,025
0,050
0,075
2005 2010 2015 2020
VOC
0,000
0,005
0,010
0,015
2005 2010 2015 2020
PM2,5
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Estimated effects of RES consumption increase 1/2
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Proxy2016
Estimated effect of RES on NOx emissions - EU28 (kt)
RES-E, NOx RES-H&C, NOx All RES, NOx
-160
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Proxy2016
Estimated effect of RES on SO2 emissions - EU28 (kt)
RES-E, SO2 RES-H&C, SO2 All RES, SO2
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Estimated effects of RES consumption increase 2/2
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Proxy2016
Estimated effect of RES on VOC emissions - EU28 (kt)
RES-E, VOC RES-H&C, VOC All RES, VOC
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Proxy2016
Estimated effect of RES on PM2,5 emissions - EU28 (kt)
RES-E, PM2,5 RES-H&C, PM2,5 All RES, PM2,5
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Conclusion
• Method developed to estimate impact on air pollutant emissions related to RES
– Based on Estat Shares and GAINS data
• Important drivers
– Combustion of biofuels
– IEF of renewable versus fossil fuels
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Conclusion
• In case of non combustion technologies emissions decrease
• In case of (solid) biofuels combustion technologies
– emissions ↗ for NOx, PM, VOC for RES-H
– emissions ↗ for PM, VOC for RES-E
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Thank you