egows 2008 systematic forecasting of weather “type” in the gfe
DESCRIPTION
EGOWS 2008 Systematic forecasting of weather “type” in the GFE. John Bally CAWCR. GFE. Snow. Rain. How do we describe the weather?. Isolated. Drizzle. Patchy. Heavy. Widespread. Sleet. Light. Thunderstorms. Scattered. Showers. Precipitating Weather Forecast Process Map. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
EGOWS 2008
Systematic forecasting of weather “type” in the GFE
John BallyCAWCR
GFEHow do we describe the weather?
Showers
SleetDrizz
lePatchy
HeavyWidespread
Scattered
RainIsolated
Snow
Light
Thunderstorm
s
Weather Grid
Potential Type of Precipitating Weather
Deep and Shallow Instability
Precipitating Weather Forecast Process Map
Snow Level
Upper Level Moisture
Cloud Cover
Probability of Precipitation
Expected Intensityof Precipitation
GFEWill the precipitation be convective ?
GFEThe model upper RH fields have skill.
Is there enough moisture for rain?
GFEDiagnose weather type from instability,
cloud cover and upper RH
GFEStart with the Probability of Precipitation
from a multi model ensemble.....
GFEMatch the statistics of ensemble PoP to
climatology.......Limit PoP to 70%
GFEUse PoP to delineate areas of weather
and assign coverage
GFEMake sure that the PoP and the most
expected precipitation amount match.....
GFEWhat effect will the wind field have on
Precipitation ?
GFEIncrease forecast precipitation where
convergence will trigger showers.....
GFEAnd set the weather intensity from the
expected precipitation rate.....
GFEThe previous day, with a cold front
crossing the west Australian coast .....
08 Jun 18Z 09 Jun 00Z 09 Jun 12Z09 Jun 06Z>>
>>
>>
GFEForecasters expect more instability than
the model shows......
08 Jun 18Z 09 Jun 00Z 09 Jun 12Z09 Jun 06Z>>
>>
>>
Weather Grid
Potential Type of Precipitating Weather
Define Feature
Feature Based Precipitating Weather Process
Associate Weather Type with Feature
Track Feature
Probability of Precipitation
Expected Intensityof Precipitation
GFEDraw in the axis of the cold front...
GFEAnd again 12 and 24 hours later....
GFEMake contours from these lines... Value
is the time of wind change .......
GFEUse select tool to dynamically pick out
the area from 3 hrs ahead of the change to 6 hours behind it .....
GFEThe cold frontal zone moving over
western Australia .....
08 Jun 18Z 09 Jun 00Z 09 Jun 12Z09 Jun 06Z>>
>>
>>
GFEUse this “edit area” to assign “showers
and storms” potential weather type near the front .....
08 Jun 18Z 09 Jun 00Z 09 Jun 12Z09 Jun 06Z>>
>>
>>
GFEAgain, calculate the forecast weather
from potential weather type, PoP and expected precipitation intensity ...
08 Jun 18Z 09 Jun 00Z 09 Jun 12Z09 Jun 06Z>>
>>
>>
GFEAlso increase wind speed near the
change line... often under-forecast by model......
08 Jun 18Z 09 Jun 00Z 09 Jun 12Z09 Jun 06Z>>
>>
>>
GFE Now we produce some words....
Weather Types are described by........
Coverages : How much of specified area is impacted ?
Intensities : how strong ?
Attributes : optional features of the weather type
Coverage, intensity and attributes combined .... e.g. “Widespread heavy showers with hail”
GFE Sample and summarise the grids ....
Take a time-series of grids and perform mathematical operations, including: Averaging, Min/Max, deciles etc Collection of weather keys
These operations produce samples, which represent the best numerical description over the space & time in question.
e.g. Wind : ((5, 10), (300, 340)) MaxT : (22, 28) Weather : ((SctSH+ 32%), (PaRa- 20%), (AreasTS 10%))
GFE Describe the situation over time.....
Examines the grids at the minimum time resolution, e.g. 3 hourly resolution
Identify times in the sequence where the samples change significantly
Choose significant transition points and produce one sub-phrase for each time chunk.
e.g. “Light wind becoming northerly 15-20 knots during the morning then tending southwesterly in the evening.
GFE Combine weather within a type.....
Look at similarity of weather between subphrases
Is it worth describing a transition from the chance of light rain to the chance of moderate rain?
Generally combine across one coverage OR intensity
Combined more aggressively in complex situations
GFE Describe the stats of each period...
Take the statistics for each chunk (time period) Produce a scalar, vector, or weather description
Wind ((5, 20), (300, 340)) “north to northwest wind up to 20 knots”
Wx (isolSh-) “isolated light showers” or “chance of a light shower”
GFE Talking about changes.....
Transition style for trends while over-time, e.g. “becoming light around midday”.
Over-time style for isolated events, e.g. “Rain during the evening”.
Use transition words......eg Wx (isolSh-, WideRa) “isolated light showers
increasing to widespread rain” Wx (isolSh-, WideSh) “isolated light showers
becoming more widespread”
GFE and produce the worded forecast ...
GFE with some help from our testing infrastructure ...