effectively support risk-based prioritizationsites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/depssite/... ·...
TRANSCRIPT
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Copyright 2012 Institute for Responsible Infrastructure Stewardship
USING
KNOWLEDGE-BASED ASSESSMENT
DATA
to EFFECTIVELY SUPPORT
RISK-BASED PRIORITIZATION
of M&R INVESTMENTS
in EXISTING BUILDINGS
USING
KNOWLEDGE-BASED ASSESSMENT
DATA
to EFFECTIVELY SUPPORT
RISK-BASED PRIORITIZATION
of M&R INVESTMENTS
in EXISTING BUILDINGS
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Copyright 2012 Institute for Responsible Infrastructure Stewardship
Antelman, RA
Clayton, PE
Feola, PE
Uzarski, PhD, PE
Antelman, RA
Clayton, PE
Feola, PE
Uzarski, PhD, PE
USING
KNOWLEDGE-BASED ASSESSMENT
DATA
to EFFECTIVELY SUPPORT
RISK-BASED PRIORITIZATION
of M&R INVESTMENTS
in EXISTING BUILDINGS
USING
KNOWLEDGE-BASED ASSESSMENT
DATA
to EFFECTIVELY SUPPORT
RISK-BASED PRIORITIZATION
of M&R INVESTMENTS
in EXISTING BUILDINGS
ScienceScience
PracticePractice
IRISIRISNon-profitIndependentResearchEducationAdvocacy
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Thank you !
ScienceScience
PracticePractice
A must read . . . . .
IRIS Official Review 2012
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“It isn't simple, but can be done & improvement
will result”
Report’s Conclusion
ScienceScience
PracticePractice
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Recommendation 2
RISK
LO
HI
Finding 2
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NRC ‘S RECOMMENDED PROCESSfor Implementing Recommendation 3.b
ComponentRisk Rating
M&R ProjectRisk Ranking
“Additional research & collaborative effort are needed.”
Finding 9
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Selection CriteriaSelection CriteriaCredibilityCredibilityCredibilityCredibilityTransparencyTransparencyTransparencyTransparencyAffordableAffordableAffordableAffordableEasily implemented Easily implemented Easily implemented Easily implemented Agency adaptableAgency adaptableAgency adaptableAgency adaptable
ComponentRisk Rating
M&R ProjectRisk Ranking
Our PremiseOur PremiseThe report identifies many The report identifies many The report identifies many The report identifies many
recommendations & tools that recommendations & tools that recommendations & tools that recommendations & tools that can augment this process.can augment this process.can augment this process.can augment this process.
NRC ‘S RECOMMENDED PROCESSfor Implementing Recommendation 3.b
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Copyright 2012 Institute for Responsible Infrastructure Stewardship
MAINTENANCE AND REPAIRMAINTENANCE AND REPAIR
ConstructionImprovements
Alterations
SFFAS 40 & 42
““““ AcceptableAcceptableAcceptableAcceptableCondition forCondition forCondition forCondition forCurrent UseCurrent UseCurrent UseCurrent Use””””
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M&R
EmergencyService
Calls
Repairs
PredictiveTesting &Inspection
ProgrammedMajor
Maintenance
PM
MAINTENANCE AND REPAIRMAINTENANCE AND REPAIR
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M&R
EmergencyService
Calls
Repairs
PredictiveTesting &Inspection
ProgrammedMajor
Maintenance
PM
INVESTMENTS ININVESTMENTS IN
Major
Repair &
Replacement
MAINTENANCE AND REPAIRMAINTENANCE AND REPAIR
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FACILITIESFACILITIES
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Copyright 2012 Institute for Responsible Infrastructure StewardshipLOW
HI
� � �
� � �
� � �
The TOOLKIT
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Benefit/CostAnalysis
RiskAnalysis
Threat &VulnerabilityAssessment Implementation
NRC Report page 103:“Essential to do in the context of
importance to mission fulfillment”
NRC Report page 103:“Essential to do in the context of
importance to mission fulfillment”
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The Universal
Threat &
Vulnerability
Assessment
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Copyright 2012 Institute for Responsible Infrastructure Stewardship
THE THREATS
THE ASSET
AGE
TerrorismVandalism
Disaster
Abuse
Design Flaw
Accident
Poor Build
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THE THREAT
100%
VULNERABLE
THE ASSET
AGEAGEAGEAGEAGEAGEAGEAGE
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Benefit/CostAnalysis
RiskAnalysis
Threat &VulnerabilityAssessment Implementation
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ComponentRisk Rating
Component Failure
Component Failure
NRC’S RECOMMENDEDRISK ANALYSIS PROCESS
IRIS RESEARCHIRIS RESEARCHAugmenting this process with other report
recommendations can make major building repair funding decisions more credible and transparent.
AffordableAffordableAffordableAffordable
Easily implemented
Easily implemented
Easily implemented
Easily implemented
Agency adaptable
Agency adaptable
Agency adaptable
Agency adaptable
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ComponentRisk Rating
Component Failure
Component Failure
NRC’S RECOMMENDEDRISK ANALYSIS PROCESS
Purpose of PresentationPurpose of PresentationSummarize the possible augmentations and propose that the FFC O&M Committee consider them when performing
Task #1 of the 2012 Technical Activities Program .
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The following is a product of research
conducted by IRIS under a Cooperative
Research and Development Agreement
with ERDC-CERL, but until the paperwork
clears, any opinions expressed are solely
those of the Institute and shouldn’t be
construed to reflect official positions of
ERDC, the US Army, or any organization of
the US government.
PROVISO
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to BuildingCII
THE BLENDED TOOL METHOD
Component Failure
ComponentRisk Rating
Component Failure
Knowledge-basedAssessment
Knowledge-basedAssessment
to Mission
Report Page 52Weibull Model
CFPRCSCI
“An array of tools is available to quantify risks.
Finding 3 & 8
“Use existing Knowledge-basedAssessment data.”
Recommendation 6
“Component ImportanceIndex.”
Report Page 99
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to Building
to Mission
CII MDI
Component Failure
ComponentRisk Rating
Component Failure
Knowledge-basedAssessment
Knowledge-basedAssessment “Relative Mission Index”
USCG
RMI
THE BLENDED TOOL METHOD
“Mission Dependency Index”Finding 3
“Involve Senior Decision Makers”Report Pages 76 & 108
Mission ManagersMission Managers
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Mission ManagersMission Managers
Component Failure
Component Failure
ComponentRisk Rating
Knowledge-basedAssessment
Knowledge-basedAssessment
Report Page 102ASTM 1765-07e1& Delphi Method”
CFCR
THE BLENDED TOOL METHOD
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Implementation
Benefit/CostAnalysis
RiskAnalysis
Threat &VulnerabilityAssessment
“ Recommended technique for economic analysis of government
programs & projects”– OMB Circular A-94 Revised -
“ Recommended technique for economic analysis of government
programs & projects”– OMB Circular A-94 Revised -
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Benefit-to-CoPROJECT
BENEFIT / COST (B/C) ANALYSIS
B/C = Unmitigated CRR – Mitigated CRR
Estimated Project Cost
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ComponentRisk Rating
Component Failure
Component Failure
Knowledge-basedAssessment
Knowledge-basedAssessment
to Building
to Mission
Mission ManagersMission Managers
Project
THE BLENDED TOOL METHOD
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Benefit/CostAnalysis
RiskAnalysis
Threat &VulnerabilityAssessment Implementation
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COMPONENT RISK RATINGCOMPONENT RISK RATINGCOMPONENT RISK RATINGCOMPONENT RISK RATING
PROJECT B/CPROJECT B/CPROJECT B/CPROJECT B/C
Optimize
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Must Fund
Risk Tolerance
Report Chapter 7 & 8
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Component Failure
to Mission
to Building
84 ComponentRisk Rating
Knowledge-basedAssessment
Knowledge-basedAssessment
Component Failure
Mission ManagersMission Managers
Project
80.95
50
BLENDED TOOL METHODExample
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COMPONENT RISK RATINGCOMPONENT RISK RATINGCOMPONENT RISK RATINGCOMPONENT RISK RATING
PROJECT B/CPROJECT B/CPROJECT B/CPROJECT B/C
Must FundOptimize
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Risk Tolerance
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
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# Description Structural Mechanical Electrical Other1 Headquarters 50.0 60.0 70.0 20.02 IT Central 20.0 15.0 35.0 40.03 Conference Center 30.0 50.0 65.0 20.04 Library 15.0 20.0 15.0 25.05 Garage 45.0 30.0 25.0 0.06 Clinic 20.0 25.0 30.0 45.07 Cafeteria/Galley 20.0 10.0 15.0 15.08 Warehouse 20.0 75.0 50.0 15.0
FACILITY System Failure Risk Rating
Risk Register
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# Description 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Structural 75 78 81 84 87 90
Mechanical 63 66 69 72 75 78
Electrical 67 68 69 70 71 72
Other 42 50 58 66 74 82
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Structural 40 43 46 49 52 55
Mechanical 63 66 69 72 75 78
Electrical 67 68 69 70 71 72
Other 42 50 58 66 74 82
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Structural 40 43 46 49 52 55
Mechanical 40 43 46 49 52 55
Electrical 40 41 42 43 44 45
Other 42 50 58 66 74 82
Capital Investment = $500,000
RISK MITIGATION PLAN BCapital Investment = $1,000,000
5 Garage
RISK MITIGATION PLAN A
Capital Investment = $0UNMITIGATED OPERATIONAL RISKFACILITY
System
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THE BLENDED TOOL METHOD
Features– Quantitative
– Predictive– Dynamic/On demand
– FM/Mission Balance– Affordable
– Streamlined– Do-able in MS Excel
Benefits– Repeatable
– Auditable– Transparent
– FM/Mission Balance– Use existing data
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ScienceScience
PracticePractice
ConclusionConclusionThe recommended NRC process for managing
mission risks of deteriorated building components can be augmented with other
NRC report recommendations. The blends are easily implemented, agency adaptable, and
can make major building repair funding decisions more credible and transparent.
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ScienceScience
PracticePractice
THE BLENDED METHOD
RecommendationRecommendationThat the FFC O&M Committee consider these types of
process augmentations when doing Task #1 of the FFC 2012 Technical Activities Program.
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History of Navy Leadership
in Facility Condition Assessment
TraditionalTraditionalTraditionalTraditionalTraditionalTraditionalTraditionalTraditional
KBIKBIKBIKBI1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
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For more info
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