Effective Hot Spot Policing

A Proposal

Nathanael Shermett

Mission: improve police effectiveness.

1.Theoretical basis of study2.Tactical basis of study

Problem-oriented policingHot spot policing

Crime displacement / diffusion3.Proposal

Outline

Theory

Rational Choice TheoryMost “obvious” theory.Assumes criminals act logically.

“Logically”Cost/benefit analysis.May apply to pathologically-motivated offenders as well (Cornish, 2014, p. 2).

Theory

Rational Choice TheoryPros

Explains a wide array of crimes.Provides some insight into how crime can be

deterred.

ConsObvious.Too general.Provides... little insight into how crime can be

deterred.

Theory

Routine Activities TheoryGrounded in rational choice theory.Narrows down the factors that lead to crime.

No longer simply “criminals commit crime because they want to”.

Three things, when present, lead to crime:

Motivated offenderSuitable targetAbsence of a capable guardian

Theory

Routine Activities TheoryPros

Explains a wide array of crimes.More specific than Rational Choice Theory.Highlights specific factors that lead to crime.

Address these factors → crime drops.Empirically validated.

ConsStill general.Does not explain all types of crime.

Tactics

Problem-Oriented PolicingTactical approach to reducing crime.Addresses the causes of crime first.

Crime TriangleProblem-Analysis Triangle

Tactics

Hot Spot PolicingPrimary focus of this study and proposal.Focuses police resources on crime hot spots.

High-crime areas.Hot spots “generate half of all criminal events

[in a city landscape]” (Braga, 2005, p. 317).Stop crime at hot spots → stop more crime.

Hot spot policing is very effective.

Hot Spot Policing

Crime DisplacementThough empirical studies are generally in

favor of hot spot policing’s effectiveness, there are some doubts about it.

Crime displacement is a phenomenon in which crime, rather than disappearing, moves.

Spatial displacement and temporal displacement are the most common and most heavily studied.

Hot Spot Policing

Diffusion of BenefitsDisplacement what my thesis was

originally focused on.“How do you combat displacement?”

Turns out displacement isn’t too common.

Oftentimes, the opposite of displacement occurs.

Rather than moving to surrounding areas, crime disappears from them.

This is known as diffusion of benefits.

Hot Spot Policing

Diffusion of BenefitsDiffusion of benefits happens more often than crime displacement.

This is heavily supported by most modern criminological research.

Diffusion of benefits is obviously desirable to police departments.

My thesis demonstrates how a police department can take advantage of diffusion of benefits.

Research

The Koper CurveLike crime displacement, diffusion can be both

spatial and temporal.Koper (1995) discovered:

Residual deterrence after leaving hot spot.The amount of residual deterrence corresponds with the amount

of time a police officer is present at a hot spot.After ~10 minutes, returns are significantly greater

than if a police officer simply drove through a hot spot.

Between 12-18 minutes, returns are greatest.15 minutes = peak return

Research

Sacramento Policing ExperimentEmpirically demonstrated the efficacy of Koper’s conclusions.

Simple design:Every day, police officers were randomly

assigned 1-6 hot spots to patrol.Directed to spend 12-16 minutes at each hot

spot.Directed to visit each hot spot every ~2 hours.Encouraged to interact with people at hot spot.

Service calls and index crimes both saw significant decreases when the tactic was implemented.

Research Summary1.Problem-oriented policing is effective.2.Hot-spot policing is effective.3.Displacement is less common than diffusion.

4.Police can leverage (temporal) diffusion.

My Proposal

Should be assigned to 1-6 hot spots every day.

Should spend 12-18 minutes at each hot spot they visit, and should revisit at least once every 2 hours.

Should focus on problem-oriented policing when at each hot spot, if possible.

Proposal

Police officers...

Hot spot data should be made public to researchers.Before and after the

implementation.

Should be implemented for at least 90 days.

If these rules are followed:

Should be done with the help of criminologists to establish a good experimental design.

Should first have adequate hot spot data available (see Telep et al., 2014, p. 913).

Should utilize randomized control hot spots.

Proposal

The implementation...

Crime → DecreaseResearch → Increase