effect of climate change on cocoa yields and export in nigeria
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EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COCOA YIELDS AND EXPORT IN
NIGERIA
BY
OMUEMU W. EFE
This paper was submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the
Award of Postgraduate Diploma in International Trade Policy and Trade Law
Awarded by
Trade Policy Training Center in Africa
[trapca]
P.O.Box 3030
ARUSHA, TANZANIA
NOVEMBER 11TH 2012
0
ABSTRACT
The production and export of Cocoa in Nigeria has been experiencing a declining trend in recent years
and many factors have been identified by different researchers. One of these factors is the effect of
climatic factors hence; this study examines the effect of climatic variables in cocoa yields and export in
Nigeria, rainfall, temperature and precipitation were observed to have been the most important climatic
factors that affect cocoa yields and export in Nigeria.
However, a trend analysis of data used, revealed that climate change had minimal effect on cocoa yields
and export in Nigeria, this may be attributed to reform programs put in place by Nigeria
government since 1999 to revamp coco sector with the establishment of National Cocoa
Development Committee (NCDC). It was however, noted that unfavorable climatic conditions or
climate change will impact negatively on cocoa yields resulting to decrease in export; if there is drought,
excessive temperature, low rainfall and precipitation couple with reduction in farm land due to
desertification, there will be a decline in productivity resulting to a decline in export as well. For this
situation to be remedy, Nigeria’s adaption and mitigation strategies and policies must be improved upon
and implemented.
It was recommended that a holistic approach should be adopted by Government and all
stakeholders by investing in this sector through Research and Development, proper utilization of
lands in Nigeria lying fallow for cocoa production in the cocoa region or belt. Cocoa farmers
should be educated on modern trends in the cultivation of this crop and value addition to their
raw cocoa for more market access and competition. Measures should be put in place to address
the issues of the effects climate variability on cocoa yield and the decline in its export.
KEY WORD
Climate Change, Cocoa Export and Yield.
1
LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATION
BNRCC Building Nigeria’s Response to Climate Change
CAN Cocoa Association of Nigeria
CFAN Cocoa Farmers Association of Nigeria.
COGAN Cocoa Growers Association of Nigeria.
CRIN Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria
CBN Central Bank of Nigeria
FOA Food Organization
GHG Green House Gas
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
NCDC National Cocoa Development Committee
NRI National Rainfall Index
NASPA-CCN National Adaptation Strategy and Plan of Action on Climate
Change for Nigeria
NAMA National Approach Mitigation Action
EIA Environmental Impact Assessment
NEST Nigerian Environmental Study/Action Team
2
Contents
ABSTRACT...................................................................................................................................................2
LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATION.........................................................................................3
CHAPTER 1..................................................................................................................................................5
1.0 INTRODUCTION...............................................................................................................................5
1.1. Background.........................................................................................................................................6
1.2. Statement of Problem..........................................................................................................................8
1.3. Research Hypothesis...........................................................................................................................8
1.4. Hypothesis...........................................................................................................................................8
1.5. Significance of Study..........................................................................................................................8
1.6. Research Objective.............................................................................................................................8
1.7. Broad Objective..................................................................................................................................8
1.8. Specific Objective...............................................................................................................................8
1.9. Limitations of Study...........................................................................................................................9
CHAPTER 2................................................................................................................................................10
2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW......................................................................................................................10
CHAPTER 3................................................................................................................................................13
3.0. METHODOLOGY...............................................................................................................................13
3.1. Source of Data...................................................................................................................................13
CHAPTER 4................................................................................................................................................14
4.1. DATA PRESENTATION AND INTERPRETATION OF RESULT..............................................14
4.2. Data Presentation..............................................................................................................................14
4.3 Interpretation of Results.....................................................................................................................17
4.4. Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies of Climate Change in Nigeria...............................................19
CHAPTER 5................................................................................................................................................21
5.0. SUMMARY, RECOMMENDATION AND CONCLUSION.........................................................21
3
5.1. Summary...........................................................................................................................................21
5.2 Suggestion..........................................................................................................................................22
5.3. Conclusion........................................................................................................................................22
References....................................................................................................................................................23
4
CHAPTER 1
1.0 INTRODUCTION
The importance of cocoa to Nigeria’s economy cannot be overemphasized; cocoa is Nigeria’s
second non - oil export exchange earner followed by leather and a major source of employment
to over five million Nigerians. Cocoa is grown in 14 States in Nigeria knows as the cocoa berth.
The states are Akwa Ibom, Abia , Cross River, Edo, Delta, Oyo, Ondo, Ekiti, Ogun,Osun, Kogi,
Kwara, Eboyin and River with annual production rate of 400,000 metric tons . In 2005 cocoa’s
contribution to export revenue stood at $136.6m with Netherland, UK, Spain, France, Germany,
Italy and USA as export destination, (http://farriconsultingng.blogspot.com)
Prior independence in 1960 cocoa played an important role in Nigeria’s economic development,
generating 90% of her foreign exchange earnings and the largest employer of labor.
Proceeds generated from cocoa exports in the 1960s were used to build monumental structures in
Nigeria, especially in South West, such as the cocoa house. Most of the nation's today's leaders
were equally educated through cocoa proceeds; such was the invaluable importance of cocoa to
Nigeria's economy few decades ago, (www.cooporate –nigeria.net).
Nigeria still produces 300’000 - 350’000 tones of cocoa a year; the country exports about 96% of
its cocoa crop. In 2010, Cocoa exports was 360,000 metric tons valued at $373,855.00, this could
be attributed to good weather conditions and improved quality in stock in the growing regions
known as the cocoa berth, (http://faostat.fao.org/site).
However, the production and export of cocoa witnessed a declined in the 1980s which was
attributed to different factors by different school of thoughts; the Structural Adjustment Program
(SAP) adopted in 1980s is believed to be one of the factors,1 and climate change etc.
1 The devaluation of the naira and the abolition of agricultural marketing boards in 1986, where IMF conditions for SAP, this led to the decline in cash-crop (cocoa) output. The failure to significantly increase output was caused partly by the lack of incentives for producers to invest in crop production, ( http://www.mongabay.com/reference/country_studies/nigeria)
5
Source: http://faostat.fao.org/site
1.1. Background
The production capacity of cocoa in Nigeria has reached about 385, 000 metric tons per annum,
an increase of 215,000 metric tons from year 2000 production level. This places Nigeria as the
fourth highest cocoa producing nation in the world after Ivory Coast and Ghana, producing
360,000 metric tons valued at $378,855 in 2010 ( www.faostat.fao.org).
6
Cocoa exports in Nigeria accounted for more than 20% of the country’s foreign exchange in the
early 1970’s.Nigeria’s major export partners are Europe and the United States. The sector
contribution to employment was about two-thirds of the population.
In the 1980’s Nigeria became a major importer of cocoa and its by-products; due to the shift
from agro based economy to petroleum and the resultant effect was the decline in cocoa export,
due to rural urban migration of cocoa farmers, growers and youths in search of white collar jobs
in the oil industry. Despite the importance of cocoa in pre and post independence in Nigeria, this
sector was neglected as a result of the discovery of oil in 1956 and its subsequent production in
commercial quantity; an era in the history of Nigeria known as the oil boom of the 1970s . This
impacted negatively on cocoa farming in Nigeria and resulted to the under development and
investment in this sector prior the 1999 reforms of President Olusegun Obasanjor administration.
The failure of the marketing boards in the 1990s was disappointing and facilitated the
liberalization of the cocoa market. Nigeria became the first cocoa producer in West Africa to
liberalize this sector, (Nwachukwu, Ifeanyi, Ndubuto, 2010).
However, the liberalization of this sector in 1986 resulted in the abolition of the Nigerian Cocoa
Board, a government agency that controlled the marketing of cocoa, and the industry was
deregulated.
With assistance from the World Bank, the government was able to restored cocoa production in
the late 1980s through replanting programs and producer price supports.
In the quest to revitalize the industry; in 1999 the government established the National Cocoa
Development Committee (NCDC). The NCDC promotes cocoa production and trade in
cooperation with the various growers’ agencies operating in the industry, like the Cocoa
Association of Nigeria (CAN), the Cocoa Farmers Association of Nigeria (CFAN), and the
Cocoa Growers Association of Nigeria (COGAN)2.
2 The Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria (CRIN) is another major stakeholder in the sector:
established in 1964 as a government parastatal, the Institute conducts research on cocoa,
distributes seedlings to farmers and trains growers in modern agricultural practices as well as in
business development skills. www.coorporate-nigeria.net
7
Also the Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria (CRIN); a government owned parastatal to conduct
research on cocoa, distributes improved seedlings to farmers and educate them on modern
agricultural practices as well as business development skills.
1.2. Statement of Problem
Cocoa has been one of the leading Nigeria’s agricultural export products for several years now,
but there has be a significant decline in the yields and export of cocoa in Nigeria over the years.
It is against this backdrop that a quantitative method of analysis with the aid of graph as
analytical tool was used determines the effects of climate change on the variability of cocoa
yields and export in Nigeria.
1.3. Research Hypothesis
1.4. Hypothesis
Climate change influence on cocoa yields and export in Nigeria
1.5. Significance of Study
The significance of this study is to investigate the effects of climate change on cocoa yields,
export and other factors that have led to the decline in cocoa export in Nigeria.
Recommend findings to policy makers or stakeholder on ways of increasing cocoa yields and
export in Nigeria.
1.6. Research Objective
1.7. Broad Objective
The broad objective is to determine link between climate change, cocoa yields and export in Nigeria.
1.8. Specific Objective
The following are the specific objectives of this research;
To determine the effect of climate variability or change on cocoa yields and export
8
To investigate other causes of the decline of cocoa yields and export in Nigeria.
1.9. Limitations of Study
The research methodology and findings were not without shortcomings, which includes lack of
research supervisor and time constraint to source materials.
Findings may deviate from through representation due to data sources.
9
CHAPTER 2
2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW
Climate change, also known as global warming has become one of man’s major challenges with
adverse effects like the disruption of seasonal cycles particularly the ecosystem, agriculture,
water level reduction, the disappearance of lake and desert encroachment, climate change is
believed to be the greatest challenges faced by man and his environment today. It’s impact are
felt globally by both developed and developing countries, it’s impact is most felt by the less
developed and developing countries because they lack the economic, socio and political
infrastructure to respond adequately to the effects of climate change mostly on agricultural
productivity.
In Nigeria, this means that some stable ecosystem such as the Sahel Savanna may become
vulnerable because warming will reinforce existing patterns of water scarcity and increasing the
risk of drought in Nigeria and indeed most countries in West Africa. As well, the country’s
aquatic ecosystem, wetlands and other habits will create overwhelming problems for an already
impoverished populace, (Building Nigeria’s Response to Climate Change (BNRCC, 2008, www.
Nigeriaclimatechange.org)
The high rates in climate changes in the cultivation of cocoa has greater influence on the 3
phases of cocoa production ranging from seedling phase, establishment phase and processing
phase. This is because weather and climate influence most of the processes involved in cocoa
production, for instance: solar radiation produces energy for warming the soil, plants, air and
metabolic processes; rainfall and it characteristics in terms of amount, intensity, reliability and
distribution influence crop growth and soil erosion. Atmospheric evaporability determines the
performance and survival of crops. Planting date of cocoa seeds is determined by start of the
rains. Irrigation aid cocoa productivity leading to increase in economic value. Sun drying reduces
the water content of cocoa seed and makes its processing easier, against this backdrop, we can
10
inferred that all cocoa production processes are directly or indirectly related to weather and
climate change (www.agritade.cta.int)3
According to the publication of (African Technology Policy Studies Network Working paper
series | No. 62, 2011) their study revealed that there was an increase in the incidence of climate
change in the area as typified by low rainfall, higher temperature and desertification. The study
further revealed that the perceived causes of climate change in the northern part of Nigeria
included: overgrazing of farmland by livestock, deforestation and bush burning. The findings
also noted that key problems associated with the changing climate were: increase in cost of farm
inputs, poor crop yields, and increase in pest and disease incidence and loss of forest resources.
Also, a research work carried out on the effect of climate change on cocoa yield in Cocoa
Research Institute of Nigeria (CRIN) farm, Ibadan. It was observed that for sustainable cocoa
production, weather which is an uncontrollable variable is an important factor whose effect on
cocoa is difficult to quantify in field environment. The effect of two major weather parameters
rainfall and temperature were evaluated on cocoa yield over a ten years period. The study
revealed that there is a weak inverse correlation in rainfall (0.0073), i.e. increase in rainfall
resulting to a decrease in yield. While positive weak correlation (0.2196) was established for
temperature on yield. This study also revealed a strong positive correlation between yields/pods
and temperature. The study showed that a combination of optimal temperature (290c) and
minimal rainfall (900 to 1000mm) will give a better yield and improve production and the
economy of both Cocoa farmers and Nigeria at large (Journal of Sustainable Development in
Africa (Volume 12, No.1, 2010).
(Kwapong et al. 2005), also posit that the major direct impact of climate change on agricultural
production in Nigeria will be through changes in temperature, rain, growing season, and timing
of extreme or critical threshold events. Suitable weather condition is essential at every stage of
cocoa production. Sensitivity of cocoa production to hours of sunshine, rainfall, soil conditions
3 Climate change is certainly one of the greatest challenges of humanity with prediction of its
impacts varying from region to region. Africa; where Nigeria is located is thought to be most
vulnerable region to the impacts of climate change (Challinor et al. 2007)
11
and temperature therefore makes it vulnerable to climate change. Changing climate can also alter
development of pests and diseases and change the host’s resistance. Unfavorable climate
promotes pest infestation and disease outbreak on cocoa farms. Newly planted cocoa plants and
some cocoa trees dry up because of drought.
(Ajewole et al. 2010) studied the effect of climate change on cocoa yield with the use of
correlation and regression analysis and concluded that optimal temperature and minimal rainfall
will give better yield of cocoa in Nigeria.
However, the production of cocoa in Nigeria suffered a reduction in the 1980s and 1990s prior
the return to democratic rule in 1999 due to a number of factors according to (Oluyole et al.
2009).
(Villlalobos 1989) attributed low yields or productivities to factors such as: inconsistent
production pattern, disease incident, pest attack and use of simple farm tools, while Oduwole
(200) in his study identified aging cocoa farms as one of the factors responsible for the decline in
cocoa production in south western Nigeria, he observed that many cocoa farms were over 40
years old and such farms constitutes as much as 60 percent of the cocoa farms in Nigeria4.
Other reasons attributed to the decline in cocoa production and the inability of cocoa industry to
increase output include small farm holdings, transportation mode, and unavailability of human
labor, low capital and variability in climatic factors.
These findings serve as a basis for the researcher to carry out this research. This will reveal if
there is positive or negative correlation between climate change, cocoa yields and export in
Nigeria.
4 Nigeria has lost her leading role in cocoa export due to downward trend in cocoa production. Adegeye (1996)
12
CHAPTER 3
3.0. METHODOLOGY
The analysis of data was conducted by quantitative method of analysis with the aid of graphical
representation of data as analytical tool, to compare the trends in the time series data and their
variation on cocoa yields and export.
3.1. Source of Data
Data for this study was obtained from secondary sources with the use of WIT/World Bank,
FOASTAT, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bullion, Nigeria bureau of statistics
website. Data retrieved was analyzed and presented in the form of table’s and graphs for data
presentation and analysis.
13
CHAPTER 4
4.1. DATA PRESENTATION AND INTERPRETATION OF RESULT
4.2. Data Presentation
Table 1: Summary statistics of rainfall, temperature and cocoa yield
Period Rainfall
(mm)
Temperature (° c) Cocoa Yields(Tones)
1961-1970 1,368.00 11.7 230,750.00
1971-1980 1,408.10 14.02 198,370.00
1981-1990 1,246.00 14.19 184,180.00
1991-2000 1,182.70 14.31 296,600.00
2001-2010 1,193.80 14.55 388,845.30
Source of Data: Nigeria bureau of statistics
14
Graph 1: Trend in Cocoa yields (Tones)
Source of Data: FAO. 2012. AQUASTAT database.
Table 2: Average Precipitation, Volume and National Rainfall
Period/Year 1983-1987 1988-1992 1993-1997 1998-2002 2003-2007 2008-2012
Average precipitation
in depth (mm/yr)
1150 1150 1150 1150 1150 1150
Average precipitation
in volume (10^9
m3/yr)
1062 1062 1062 1062 1062 1062
National Rainfall 1272 1351 1365 1295
15
1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010 -
50,000.00
100,000.00
150,000.00
200,000.00
250,000.00
300,000.00
350,000.00
400,000.00
450,000.00
Cocoa Yields(Tonnes)
Cocoa Yields(Tonnes)
Index (NRI) (mm/yr)
Source of Data: www.fao.stat.org
Graph 2: Trends in Average Precipitation, Volume and National Rainfall
1983-1987
1988-1992
1993-1997
1998-2002
2003-2007
2008-2012
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Average precipitation in depth (mm/yr)Average precipitation in volume (10^9 m3/yr)National Rainfall Index (NRI) (mm/yr)
Table 3: Value of Nigeria Cocoa Exported to the World
COUNTRY ITEM YEAR VALUE(Current
Million US$)
Nigeria Cocoa 2000 279
Nigeria Cocoa 2001 279
Nigeria Cocoa 2002 389
Nigeria Cocoa 2003 458
Nigeria Cocoa 2004 579
Nigeria Cocoa 2005 757
Nigeria Cocoa 2006 924
Nigeria Cocoa 2007 767
Nigeria Cocoa 2008 947
Nigeria Cocoa 2009 742
16
Nigeria Cocoa 2010 837
Source of Data: www.fao.stat.org
Graph 3: graphical representation of Nigeria Cocoa Exported to World
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Nigeria Cocoa Exports (mUSD$)
Nigeria Cocoa Exports USD$
4.3 Interpretation of Results
Table1, above revealed that from 1961 - 1970, the average amount of rainfall was 1,368.00
(mm) and the average temperature was 11.7(°c) while cocoa yield was 230,750 tones.
Between 1971 – 1980 with an increase in the average rainfall from 1,368(mm) to 1,408 (mm) and
temperature from 11.7 to 14.02(°c) respectively, there was a decline in cocoa yields from 230,750 tones
to 198,370 tones. This era is known as oil boom in the history of Nigeria, characterize by the rural urban
17
migration of farmers to the cities in search of white collar jobs in the oil industries, this may be attributed
to this decline in cocoa production.
However, the decline may also be attributed to other factors such the use of traditional farming methods,
the use of obsolete equipment, poor preservative methods, pest, diseases and bush burning etc.
According to the findings of US Department of Agriculture attaches in Lagos, it was observed
that, the increasing age profile of cocoa farmers is seen as likely to lead to underinvestment in
the renewal of cocoa tree plantations. Presently the majority of Nigerian cocoa farmers are over
60 years of age, compared to only 3.1% of the general population. This is seen as a factor that
will hold back government efforts to promote a tripling of cocoa production5. 1981 – 1990
witnessed a fall in the average amount of rainfall from 198, 370 (mm) to 1,246.00 (mm) while the average
temperature increased from 14.0 to 14.19(°c), the resultant effect was a fall in cocoa yields from 198,370
to 184,180.00.
The periods, 1991 – 2000, experienced a reduction in the average rainfall from 1,246.00(mm) to
1,182.70(mm), and a minimal increase in the average temperature from 14.19(°c) to 14.31(°c),which
resulted to an increase in cocoa yields from 184,180.00 to 296,600.00(tones), this scenario however,
confirmed that cocoa yields and export in Nigeria is determine by other factors, because a decrease in
the level of rainfall and an increase in temperature is presume to result to a decline in cocoa
production, but the reserve was the case. It was also, observed that from 2001 – 2010, there was an
increase in all three variables, rainfall increased from 1,182.70(mm) to 1,193.80(mm), temperature
increased from 14.55(°c) to 14.55(°c) and cocoa yields rise from 296,600.00(mm) to 388,845.30(mm);
the highest increase for the period under reviewed.
Table 2 above revealed that the average precipitation in depth and volume remained 1150
(mm/yr) and 1062(10^9 m3/yr) respectively from 1983 to 2011, while there was a decrease in
the national rainfall index in 1997 1365 to 1295 (NRI) (mm/yr) in 2002. It was also observed that
there was a gradual decline in cocoa yields from 1961 to 1990, while there has been steady
increase in cocoa yields since 1991 to 2000 as revealed by graph 1.
5 it is estimated that only about 20% of Nigeria's 3.0m hectares of land suitable for cocoa
production is currently in use," and land that is being farmed is often being done so inefficiently.
(www.agrimoney.com).
18
Table 3, further shows that there was a significant growth in Nigeria’s cocoa export, from the
year 2000 until 2006 there was a rapid growth with a fall in cocoa export from $947m to $767m
in 2007. 2008 witnessed the highest growth of about $947m, while there was a negligible fall in
2009 of about $5m and an increase in 2010 to $837. The growth in cocoa yields leading to export
may be attributed to all the measures or reform program put in place by Nigeria government
since 1999 to revamp the sector with the establishment of National Cocoa Development
Committee (NCDC) such as the Cocoa Association of Nigeria (CAN), the Cocoa Farmers
Association of Nigeria (CFAN), the Cocoa Growers Association of Nigeria (COGAN), the
Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria (CRIN).
Also, this could be attributed to improved seedlings, irrigated farms, and increased knowledge in
cocoa farming, adaptation and mitigation strategies. This research revealed that there was no direct
relationship between climate change, cocoa yields and export in Nigeria, however it should be noted that
unfavorable climatic conditions or climate change will impact negatively on cocoa yields resulting to
decrease in export; if there is drought, excessive temperature, low rainfall and precipitation couple with
reduction in farm land due to desertification, there will be a decline in productivity resulting to a decline
in export as well. For this situation to be remedy, Nigeria’s adaption and mitigation strategies and policies
must be improved upon and implemented.
4.4. Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies of Climate Change in Nigeria
The climate change assessment carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) revealed that the Continued Green House Gas (GHG) emissions into the ecosystem will
impact negatively on global climate system in 21st century than what was observed during the
20th century (Pachauri 2009).
These findings by IPCC corroborate trends in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. It was estimated
that over 70 million cubic meters of gas is been flared daily, estimated to be about 70 million
tons of carbon dioxide, as a result of oil and gas exploration and production activities
(UNDP/World Bank 2004).
About 75 percent of total gas production in Nigeria is flared. According to world Environmental
Impact Assessment (EIA) 2003, it was estimated that Nigeria accounts for about 17.2% of global
gas flaring. Gas flaring in Nigeria contributes a considerable percentage to the world's total
emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and is probably the greatest contributor of GHGs in
19
the Niger Delta region. The low-lying Niger Delta is particularly vulnerable to the potential
effects of sea levels rising (Ugochukwu 2008; Ugochukwu et al. 2008).
Studies show that without adaptation, climate change is generally detrimental to the agriculture
sector; but with adaptation, vulnerability can largely be reduced (Easterling et al. 1993;
Mendelsohn 1998).The degree to which an agricultural system is affected by climate change
depends on its adaptive capacity. Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate
change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damage, to take
advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences (IPCC 2001).
According to National Adaptation Strategy and Plan of Action on Climate Change for
Nigeria (NASPA-CCN 2011) for an effective national response to the significant and multi-
facetted impacts of climate change, Nigeria needs an aggressive and widely supported adaptation
strategy and action plan. This strategy and plan must be integrated, comprehensive in scope, and
inclusive of all stakeholders. Nigeria is also developing a strategic Framework for Voluntary
National Approach Mitigation Action (NAMA), as a step towards meeting national obligations
under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The NAMA strategic
framework will allow Nigeria to develop long-term measures and program supporting a low
carbon, climate-resilient. This plan must be implemented and backed by action by all
stakeholders.
20
CHAPTER 5
5.0. SUMMARY, RECOMMENDATION AND CONCLUSION
5.1. Summary
The broad objective of this study was to determine the link between climate change on cocoa
yields and export in Nigeria.
The study highlights some relevant factors such as average rainfall, temperature and precipitation
that increase cocoa yields resulting to increase in export. Also factors leading to the decline in
cocoa yields and export other than climate change were observed such as farming methods. The
research paper revealed that there was no relationship between climate change and cocoa yields
and export for the period under review, this may have be attributed to reform program put in
place by Nigeria government since 1999 to revamp the sector with the establishment of National
Cocoa Development Committee (NCDC) . It was however, noted that unfavorable climatic
conditions or climate change will impact negatively on cocoa yields resulting to decrease in export; if
there is drought, excessive temperature, low rainfall and precipitation couple with reduction in farm land
due to desertification, there will be a decline in productivity resulting to a decline in export as well. For
this situation to be averted, Nigeria’s adaption and mitigation strategies and policies must be improved
upon and implemented. Reviewed literatures showed that climate change has impacted negatively
on cocoa yields and export in Nigeria.
Furthermore, the study revealed that the fluctuation in this trend basically cannot be attributed to
climate change only. Method of analysis used in the study was quantitative, data source was secondary.
The study revealed that if climatic conditions are favorable and other factors contributing to yields and
development of cocoa are put in place, there will be an increase in yield and cocoa export. Therefore, it
was inferred that climate change has minimal effects on cocoa yields and export in Nigeria.
5.2 Suggestion
Based on the findings of this study, the following are hereby suggested to boost or improve
cocoa yields and export in Nigeria. A holistic approach should be adopted by Government and
21
all stakeholder by investing in this sector through Research and Development, make use of the
unutilized lands in Nigeria lying fallow for cocoa production in the cocoa region or belt.
Cocoa farmers should be educated on modern trends in the cultivation of this crop and value
addition to their raw cocoa for more market access and competition.
Measures should be put in place to address the issues of the effects climate variability on cocoa
yield and the decline in its export.
5.3. Conclusion
Conclusively, it is hereby inferred that climate change has little or minimal effects on cocoa
yields and export in Nigeria, as the trend in the time series data revealed that there was a minimal
effect of precipitation, temperature and rainfall on cocoa yields and export in Nigeria.
22
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