eden - pps6 eden project description

PPS6 EDEN

Project Description

IST

March 2007

PPS6 EDEN Project Description 2

Contents

1. Portugal Vision & Scenario Development............................................... 6

2 Pathway Analysis....................................................................................... 8

3 TIMES-Model .............................................................................................. 9

4 ISIS-Model................................................................................................. 11

5. Environmental impacts – COPERT III Model and stationary

emissions equivalent............................................................................... 12

6 Key Change and Actor Mapping (KCAM)............................................... 13

7 Infrastructure Analysis ............................................................................ 14

8 Niche Markets........................................................................................... 16

9 Roadmap Synthesis................................................................................ 18

10 Action Plan ............................................................................................. 19

11. Contact List .............................................................................................. 20

12. Meeting Agendas .................................................................................... 21


Overview of Tasks

Phase Activity % Total Time Responsible

Portugal Vision and Scenario

Development

5

5

IST

INEGI

Impact Analysis Method

Economic E3 database

TIMES

5

20

IST

Social ISIS 10 IST

(subcontract)

F1

Environmental COPERT 10 INETI

Method

KCAM 10 SRE

Infrastructure 15 INEGI

EDP

F2

Transition

Analysis of

Potential

Challenges &

Opportunities

Niche Markets 5 SRE

Roadmap Synthesis 5 All

F3

Action Plan 10 All

Table 1: Overview of Project and Tasks Structure

Three workshops and one work level meeting are planned:

• First workshop: March 21, 2007 at INEGI, Porto.

• Second workshop: September 24/ 25, 2007 at EDP, Lisbon

• Work level meeting: February 2 – 14, 2008 at IST, Lisbon

• Final Dissemination meeting: May 15 – 31, 2008 location tbc, Lisbon


The project is divided into a series of tasks summarized in the table below:

# Task Title Responsible

1 Portugal Vision and Scenario Development IST

2 Pathway analysis IST

3 TIMES Model IST

4 ISIS Model IST

(subcontract)

F1

5 Environmental impacts - COPERT III Model & stationary

equivalent

INETI

6 Key Change and Actor Mapping (KCAM) SRE

7 Infrastructure Analysis EDP & INEGI F2

8 Niche Markets SRE

9 Roadmap Synthesis IST F3

10 Action Plan IST

Table 2: List of Tasks

Each task has clearly defined deliverables (marked as D) and meetings (marked as M) a list of

these is presented in the table below:

# Deliverable Short Description Due date Responsible

M 1 First Workshop 27.03.07 INEGI

D 1.1 Energy Chain Tables 10.05.07 IST

D 1.2 Penetration Rates 10.05.07 IST

D 1.3 Descriptive Energy Vision 10.05.07 IST

M 2 Second Workshop 24.09.07 IST

D 2.1 The Pathway Analysis Report 31.11.07 IST

D 3.1 Final TIMES Report 31.11.07 IST

F1

D 4.1 Final ISIS Model Report 31.11.07 IST


(subcontract)

D 5.1 Stationary Applications Emissions Model

Component

30.03.07 INETI

D 5.2 Final Report for Environmental impacts (COPERT

and stationary equivalent)

31.11.07 INETI

D 6.1 Portugal Profiling Report 31.11.07 SRE

D 6.2 Final KCAM Report 31.11.07 SRE

D 6.3 Set of Energy Data for Portugal 30.06.07 SRE

D 7.1 Final Report on Infrastructure Build Up 31.11.07 EDP & INEGI

D 8.1 Final Report on Niche Markets 31.11.07 SRE

F2

M 3 Work Level Meeting 02.08 IST

D 9.1 Final Report on Roadmap 15.05.08 IST F3

D 10.1 Final Report on Action Plan 15.05.08 IST

M 4 Final dissemination Workshop 15.05.08 INEGI

Table 3: List of Deliverables and Meetings


1. Portugal Vision & Scenario Development Responsible: IST

Objectives

Formulation of a vision is an essential input for the EDEN roadmap and serves to stimulate

discussion in the workshops. The development of a (long-term) vision is a key element in the

discussion process with the stakeholders. The input from the stakeholder is seen as the major

step in the validation of the roadmap.

The development of the (long-term) vision is the central element in the workshops. A number of

tasks, such as infrastructure build up, and Key Changes and Actor Mapping (KCAM) rely (to

some extent) on the outcome of the discussions on the long-term vision. The vision

development is also central to the quantitative modelling work.

The vision for a hydrogen economy that is developed provides a summary of the various

ingredients, such as modelling outcomes and Infrastructure Analysis. In the course of the

project, the reaction to the intermediate vision should result in:

• Selection and refinement of the relevant energy chains,

• Developing views on the localisation of production and demands within a country,

• Assert the relevance of the individual chains in the hydrogen subsystem, for production, and

distribution infrastructure,

• Where necessary (see previous point), assess factors of influence that lay outside the

modelling framework, such as socio-political barriers or stimuli, resulting in quantitative

assessment of limitation for specific technologies (bounds),

• Give a qualitative description of the long-term state towards which the energy system will

evolve and the evolution towards that state.

Tasks

As stated before, the vision development is the core activity in the workshops. It strongly links

with a number of other activities such as the selection of the specific energy chains, regions

profiling, infrastructure built up and modelling. Results will be available for the first, second and

third as an input for roadmap and vision discussion. The following process is envisaged:

• In the first workshop, a basic vision on the country specific characteristics of the future

hydrogen energy system has to be developed. This will serve as input for the hydrogen

energy chain selection.


• In the second workshop, the vision will be refined using the input generated by the

assessment of the country specific energy chains. In addition, first results of the modelling

framework will be available as well as the regions profiling. The regions profiling will provide

information on the characteristics of the current energy system but above all about the

potential characteristics of the future energy system. In addition, the regions profiling will

identify early markets that can enable the step towards mass markets. The final vision for a

hydrogen based energy system will be established, implying that the vision is validated and

accepted by the stakeholders.

Deliverables

D 1.1 Energy Chain Tables: The quantitative output will be condensed by means of a set of

tables. These tables have to list e.g. the selected energy chains and, if applicable, the upper

and lower bounds (preferably in time). These bounds reflect the non-economical aspects, such

as geographical conditions, potentials and characteristics, consumer and political preferences

etcetera. The tables will also include in them technology penetration rates to be agreed by the

stakeholders.

D 1.2 Penetration rates: Penetration rates with timelines must be agreed by the stakeholders for

both stationary and transport hydrogen applications, for two scenarios: high penetration and low

penetration.

D 1.3 Descriptive Energy Vision: The qualitative part is a description of long-term state of the

energy system, and the development towards that state. In the vision, also the hydrogen

centres (if any) and their expected evolution in time have to be described as well as the

mobilisation of resources for the hydrogen production.


2 Pathway Analysis

Responsible: IST

Objectives

To identify 5-7 (optimum: 6) most relevant hydrogen energy chains for Portugal to be used in

the further techno-economic analysis within EDEN.

Tasks

In the first workshop, a complete range of potential energy chain calculations for Portugal will

be presented. These chains will have been run through the E3 database and will demonstrate

the full range of potential options for hydrogen systems development in Portugal, together with

estimates of their relative costs and CO2 emissions. Stakeholders will be required to select a

final list of chains to be used in the mapping process.

Deliverables

D 2.1 The Pathway Analysis Report, this is due 30th November 2007 and will contain:

• A full list of selected hydrogen energy chains together with a percentage distribution of the

contribution from each individual energy chain in the year 2010, 2020, 2030 and 2050.

• A bar chart comparing the CO2-equivalent emissions (Well-to-tank and Well-to-wheel or

Source-to-user) from all hydrogen energy chains decided on,

• A bar chart comparing the specific costs (Well-to-tank and Well-to-wheel or Source-to-user)

from all hydrogen energy chains decided on,

• A tabled percentage distribution of energy chains over time.


3 TIMES-Model

Responsible: IST

Objectives

Results will be used as an input for the roadmap.

The TIMES model allows analysis of the impact of the introduction of hydrogen on the energy

system. The model will also be used to produce an integrated view on the build-up of a

hydrogen sectors, from production to final consumption. It provides input for the ISIS model that

analyses sectoral shifts and the COPERT model that determines emissions impacts.

The effects are analysed on following parameters:

• Primary energy demand for Portugal,

• Power sector build-up for Portugal - type of power plants (i.e. fuel),

• Relative contribution of selected hydrogen energy chains

• Relative contribution of hydrogen transport and delivery options; refuelling infrastructure

• Number of hydrogen vehicles

• Number of stationary hydrogen applications

• Impact on built environment

• Side benefits: CO2-emission reductions and Security of Supply, for Portugal (national and

sectoral level)

Tasks

In the first workshop, an overview of key assumption (energy prices, hydrogen deployment,

emission constraints) and the relevant inputs will be presented. For inputs that are initially

based on external sources, such as transport demand, an overview of assumed values will be

given for discussion and validation.

In the second workshop, the TIMES first model run outcomes will be presented for comments

and additions. Comments from stakeholders are gathered and translated into model inputs,

particular attention is paid to setting bounds. These comments will be processed, resulting in

the final results.


Deliverables

D 3.1 Final TIMES Report: This is due on 30th November 2007 and will present the final results

for Portugal to feed into the roadmap.


4 ISIS-Model

Responsible: IST (sub-contract to Fraunhofer ISI)

Objectives

Results will be used as an input for roadmap and end-vision discussion in the workshops.

The ISIS – model provides an analysis of the impact of the introduction of hydrogen on

employment and sectoral shifts. The effects are analysed on following parameters: total

employment effects and Sectoral shifts

Tasks

In the first workshop, the general outcome and methodology will be presented. An overview of

the relevant inputs will be presented.

In the second workshop the ISIS results will be presented for comments and additions.

Comments from stakeholders are gathered and translated into model inputs.

Deliverables

D 4.1 Final ISIS Model Report: This is due 30th November 2007


5. Environmental impacts – COPERT III Model and stationary emissions equivalent

Responsible: INETI

Objectives

Results will be used as an input for EDEN roadmap and end-vision discussion in the

workshops.

This involves the analysis of the environmental benefits resulting from the introduction of

hydrogen. The impacts are analysed mainly looking at the pollutant emissions provided by road

transport at the point of use. To this end the impact is analysed in three different domains,

including urban areas, looking at the following indicators: Fleet composition per country and fuel

type, Fuel consumption, Carbon oxide, Nitrogen oxides, Particulate matter, Volatile organic

compounds, CO2 and other greenhouse gases.

In addition, a methodology will be developed to estimate equivalent emissions from stationary

sources.

Tasks

In the first workshop, the general outcome and methodology will be presented alongside a

description of the relevant inputs will be presented. For vehicle forecasts an indication on the

assumed values will be given for discussion and stakeholders requested to provide more

adequate information.

In the second workshop the results will be presented to gather comments and feedbacks from

stakeholders to refine the model inputs.

Deliverables

D 5.1 Stationary Applications Emissions Model Component: A methodology needs to be

proposed to model the impact on emissions from stationary hydrogen applications. Due date

30th March 2007

D 5.2 Final Report for Environmental impact: The final report from COPERT and stationary

model runs will be delivered by 30th November 2007.


6 Key Change and Actor Mapping (KCAM)

Responsible: SRE

Objectives

KCAM results are an input to inform the development of an action plan in identifying the main

critical potential opportunities and barriers to be overcome through policy change.

A systematic and qualitative assessment of the key changes required in the technological

transition and the influence of critical factors upon them. The information gathered will be

analysed through the following parameters: Country, Hydrogen chain component, Difficulty

allocation, Time frame, Primary dimension allocation (political/institutional, techno-economic,

social, infrastructural), Likely level of required government involvement (EU, central, regional),

Broad actor group.

Tasks

In the first workshop, The KCAM methodology must be tailored to include an actor knowledge

and political motivation component. This together with the complete KCAM system will be

presented to the stakeholders at the first workshop.

In the second workshop, the summary report will have been created and fed into the online

KCAM tool and stakeholders will reach consensus on this input during the workshop and finalise

this process over the three weeks following.

Deliverables

D 6.1 Portugal Profiling Report: This present the current energy system in Portugal, projected

energy system evolution, relevant policies and measures as well as key stages in the energy

chains.

D 6.2 Final KCAM Report: this will present and analyse the results of the KCAM process, due

date is 30th November 2007

D 6.3 Set of Energy Data for Portugal: SRE will be involved in collecting data as required for the

various modelling components in close cooperation with IST.


7 Infrastructure Analysis

Responsible: INEGI & EDP

Objectives

The primary aim of the infrastructure analysis work is to answer the question where, when and

how will hydrogen infrastructure develop in Portugal over time.

Infrastructure analysis is a means of providing a bridge between the short term well-to-wheels

analysis of hydrogen infrastructure provided by the E3 database (and potentially also from the

H2A model) and the more longer term but lower resolution data that will be taken from the

MARKAL/TIMES modeling work. Infrastructure analysis will therefore need to be conducted in

close collaboration with the other modeling work.

Essentially the methodology should entail the connection of demand centers (end users) and

production centers via infrastructure. This will depend largely on the energy chains selected

during the end vision and scenario development work. These chains should then be analyzed

for the following aspects:

• Calculation of transport distances between supply and demand centers

• Type, size and location of hydrogen production and transport/distribution technologies,

and how these will develop over time

• Cash flow analysis to identify the most cost efficient infrastructure options

The first two points should ideally be conducted using GIS maps (such as ArcVIEW) to provide

graphic representation of how the infrastructure will develop over time, based on the different

scenarios of hydrogen penetration for Portugal.

Tasks

The tasks can be split into six main areas as described below:

1. Identification of demand centres

• Definition of scope

• Identification of population density

• Definition of end users (e.g. passenger vehicles, CHP)

• Regional distribution of end users

• Identification of existing infrastructure (e.g. road network, pipelines, etc)

• Graphical presentation of data (ArcVIEW)

2. Identification of hydrogen distribution centres

• Identification of existing infrastructure (e.g. refueling stations, gas substations)


• Type of distribution centre (e.g. onsite production, supplied by pipeline etc)

• Sizing of distribution centers over time

• Geographical expansion of distribution centers over time

• Presentation of data

3. Hydrogen resource analysis

• Qualitative description of possible hydrogen supply sites

• Location, sizing, type and cost of energy supply (e.g. pipeline pressure and

available quantities of natural gas; biomass type, seasonal availability and

collection area; quality and quantity of available by-product hydrogen)

• Logistics of CO2 transport and storage

• Graphical presentation of data (ArcVIEW)

4. Hydrogen production infrastructure build-up

• Development of build-up scenarios for the hydrogen production sites (type, size

and location) in conjunction with task 5.

5. Hydrogen distribution infrastructure build-up

• Qualitative description of hydrogen infrastructure build-up

• Discussion of specific challenges (collaborate with KCAM analysis)

• Description of layout of distribution infrastructure (including type, size and

location of production centers, transport and distribution technologies) over time

• Interface with TIMES modeling work

6. Cash flow analysis

• Identification of cost data (interface with E3 database)

• Graphical presentation of data

At the first workshop, the process will be introduced. In the second workshop, interim results

will be available. The development of infrastructure build-up scenarios is iterative, with the

comments from the second workshop being used as feedback loops.

Deliverables

D 7.1 Final Report on Infrastructure Build Up: This report will contain user centre identification,

demand split between the areas over time, split in central/ de-central production, average

transport distances (input to TIMES), infrastructure build up scenario for high and low

penetration scenario, cash flow analysis for infrastructure build-up, Portugal identification of

potential cross-border hydrogen flows.


8 Niche Markets

Responsible: SRE

Objectives

The objective of the niche market study will be to identify relevant market opportunities and

challenges for hydrogen application and end-use technologies in Portugal. The main drivers for

the hydrogen economy are environmental advantages, security of supply and innovation as a

growth engine. Hydrogen as an energy carrier will create new business opportunities for

equipment producers, energy companies/utilities and industries developing hydrogen related

end-use products. As opposed to a centralised energy system, hydrogen as an energy carrier

might also create the opportunity for a new energy paradigm based on distributed and locally

managed fuel and electricity production infrastructures relying on a more diversified set of

energy sources within a more competitive energy market. Such an environment creates also

major challenges with regard to more capital intensive technology investments (next generation

nuclear power plants, carbon sequestration processes and clean coal based systems) and also

with regard to the hydrogen infrastructure which is a necessary condition for the large scale use

of hydrogen as an energy carrier for a variety of applications (transport and stationary).

Adopting a long term perspective requires also to take into account the possibility that emerging

concepts which are at the stage of inventions and fundamental research become disruptive

innovations creating new market opportunities, transform the ways different applications interact

(fuel cell cars used as stationary CHP), the ways companies develop new product functionalities

and the ways these functionalities transform consumers’ behaviour (the Internet case being a

recent example) through for instance selling excess power produced through CHP to the power

grid. Furthermore as fuel cell and hydrogen technologies are developed spin-off of these

technologies to or from other sectors is likely. This will create new business opportunities and

positive pervasive effects in areas not easy to foresee.

Tasks

The analysis of market opportunities will be carried out, on a qualitative basis, by means of the

SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) approach. A first task could be to

provide a broader vision of how the energy system in general might be reshaped in the future

and the opportunities and threats these trends might represent for hydrogen and fuel cell

technologies. Then a specific focus will be made on end-use applications (stationary and

transport). This part would also analyse opportunities and threats for relevant actors.

After the first workshop a dedicated SWOT methodology for the EDEN project will be

developed. At the second workshop the results will be presented to gather comments and

feedbacks from stakeholders to refine the results.


Deliverables

D 8.1: Final Report on Niche Markets, due on the 30th November 2007


9 Roadmap Synthesis

Responsible: IST

Objectives Roadmap Synthesis

The Roadmap is the major outcome of the EDEN project. Based on this roadmap, a so-called

action plan will be written that focuses on the short to medium term actions to be taken to

support and enable the developments as laid down in the roadmap. The basic characteristic of

the roadmap is that it has to be supported by the major stakeholders involved in the hydrogen

transition. Secondly, it has to reflect real live conditions (validated realistic though ambitious

approach). The roadmap is therefore not just a description of technological evolution of

hydrogen based applications, but also deals with the non-technological issues such as impacts

on the economy (sectoral level as well as macro level), impacts on emissions and impacts on

security of supply.

The roadmap is to a large extent the synthesis of the assessment of the hydrogen pathway

development. Building of the roadmap heavily leans on the assessment of A & B, taking into

account the results of the models as well as the infrastructure analysis, the actor analysis as

well as the visions laid down by the stakeholders in the workshops. The roadmap will describe

the impacts of the introduction of hydrogen applications and its impact on the economy and

environment. It will identify the key technologies and key stakeholders in the transition process

as well as the resulting barriers and opportunities.

Tasks

In the work level meeting an overview presentation of the results to date will be presented.

The development for the Road Map will be planned fully.

Deliverables

D 9.1 Final Roadmap Report


10 Action Plan Responsible: IST

Objectives

The Action Plan will be used to communicate the major findings concerning the steps that will

take the successful introduction of hydrogen as a significant energy vector forward. The action

plan is based on the roadmap and comprises specific actions to be taken in the next decade in

order to facilitate the transition towards a hydrogen based energy system. In specifically focuses

on the period until mass market introduction of hydrogen applications is reached.

Analysis will be made of the policy measures and key actions of relevant actors that facilitate

the introduction of hydrogen in the energy system. The potential support from (improvement of)

the existing policy framework (emission trading, feed in tariffs) will be assessed as well as the

introduction of new / additional policy instruments (e.g. clean air legislation, subsidies and

taxation, specific support instruments for infrastructure built up etc). The action plan will also

contains a brief description of the characteristics of the early markets and main barriers to

overcome and opportunities to cease in the early phase of the transition.

Tasks

In the work level meeting an overview presentation of the results to date will be presented.

The plan for the development for the Action Plan will be made ensuring ample time for feedback

from the partners.

Deliverables

D 10.1 Final Action Plan Report


11. Contact List

NAME INSTITUTION E-MAIL

Campos Rodrigues SRE [email protected]

Pedro Rodrigues SRE [email protected]

Judite Pinto SRE [email protected]

Gonçalo de Moura Elias SRE [email protected]

Pedro Lira INEGI [email protected]

João Pereira INEGI [email protected]

Sílvia Esteves INEGI [email protected]

Ana P. Mesquita EDP Produção [email protected]

João Maciel EDP Inovação/ Labelec

[email protected]

Carlos Freitas EFACEC Energia [email protected]

Nuno Costa EFACEC SE [email protected]

Cármen Rangel INETI [email protected]

Antonia Travassos INETI [email protected]

A.S. INETI [email protected]

Rui Pimenta IST – RGESD [email protected]

Hugo Seymour IST – RGESD [email protected]

Francisco Borges IST – RGESD [email protected]

Rei Fernandes IST – RGESD [email protected]

Luke Murray IST – RGESD [email protected]


12. Meeting Agendas

Time N° Issue Responsible

10:00 0 Arrival and registration ALL

10:30 1 Introduction to the meeting INEGI & IST

11:00 2 Vision development

• Overview of potential scenarios

• Discussion of penetration rates

IST & ALL

12:00 3 Pathway Analysis

• Review and selection of optimum chains

• Discussion, including partners contributions

IST & ALL

13:00 4 PPS6 EDEN Project Summary

• Review of the project description & methodology

IST & ALL

13:30 6 End of meeting ALL

First Workshop

PPS6 EDEN Project

Time: 10:00 – 13:30 Porto, 21st March 2007

Meeting Venue: INEGI, Porto




10:30 1 Aim of the meeting and approval of the agenda

• Review of current progress on project

INEGI

11:00

2

Vision development

• Overview of consensus scenarios

• Discussion of selected hydrogen chains

IST & ALL

11:30

13:00

3 TIMES

• Presentation of preliminary results from TIMES

One hour break for lunch

IST

14:30

15:40

4 KCAM

• Review of interim results

• Discussion ending in final consensus on inputs

Coffee Break

SRE

16:00 5 Infrastructure Analysis

• Presentation interim results

• Discussion, on bounds and assumptions

EDP & INEGI

17:30 6 End of meeting day 1 ALL

Second Workshop

PPS6 EDEN Project

Time day 1: 10:30 – 17:30

Time day 2: 09:00 – 11:00 Lisbon, 24 - 25 September 2007

Meeting Venue: EDP, Lisbon



09:00

7

ISIS & COPERT (incl. stationary) Niche Markets

• Presentation of interim results

• Discussion, on assumptions

SRE, IST & INETI

10:00 8 Vision development

• Review of day’s results and discussion of shared stakeholder vision.

IST

11:00 9 End of meeting day 2 ALL

Meeting Venue: In Lisbon, location to be confirmed






IST

11:00 2 Current development

• Presentation of existing results

IST & ALL

14:00 3 Roadmap and action plan planning process

• Discussion and agreement on system

• Division of tasks

16:00

End of meeting

Work Level Meeting

PPS6 EDEN Project

Time: 10:30 – 14:00 Lisbon, 1 – 14 February 2008

Meeting Venue: IST






INEGI

11:00 2 Roadmap Development

• Presentation of existing roadmap

• Discussion

IST & ALL

11:30 3 Action Plan

• Presentation of existing action plan

• Discussion

IST & ALL

12:00 4 Dissemination Plan

• Publications discussions

• Press releases

• Website

• Glossy documents

IST & ALL

13:00 5 Press conference IST

14:00 6 End of meeting ALL

Final Dissemination Meeting

PPS6 EDEN Project

Time: 10:00 – 14:00 Lisbon, 15 – 31 May 2008

Meeting Venue: IST

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