eddy moors, alterra wageningen ur
TRANSCRIPT
Future Water Availability and Food Security: The case of the Nile Basin
Eddy MoorsChristian Siderius, Hester Biemans, Iwan Supit, Van Walsum, Smit, Roest, Van Ierland, Hellegers, Kabat
Contact: [email protected]
The Nile
Changes between 1970-1999 and 2070-2099 based on RCP4.5
Delta Rain April-June (mm)
Changes between 1970-1999 and 2070-2099 based on RCP4.5
Delta number of wet days
Delta Rain April-June (mm)
Changes between 1970-1999 and 2070-2099 based on RCP4.5
Delta numberof wet days
Delta Rain April-June (mm)
Delta length largest period consecutive dry days
ETHIOPIA: Ministers suspend talks, while praising outcomes so far
EGYPT: Minister says Megech dam will not affect Egypt’s water supplies
“Egypt & Sudan outraged by Ethiopia's Blue Nile Dam”
EGYPT: Minister dismisses Ethiopian dam work
“Egypt internationalizes dam dispute with Ethiopia” AL monitor, Feb 23, 2014
“Egypt FM hails 'positive' Tanzanian stance on Ethiopia dam” Ahram online, 23, 2014
“Ethiopia Rejects Egypt Proposal on Nile as Dam Talks Falter” Bloomberg, Jan 8, 2014
“No deal in Nile River trilateral negotiations” Daily News Egypt, Jan 5, 2014
The Nile
1959 Water allocation treaty: 55.5 BCM for Egypt, 10 BCM evaporation losses, 18.5 BCM for Sudan
Countries are not food self-sufficient
SudanSouth SudanEthiopiaEritreaRwandaBurundiKenyaTanzaniaUgandaCongo
Population increases
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 20260
100
200
300
400
500
600Po
pula
tion
(milli
on)
Food security high on the political agenda
The solution lies here
WaterWise Nile - objective function
Y = YLU − CLWM + YHP −CRWM Y represents total benefits (USD/yr),
YLU gross margin of land use (USD/yr),
CLWM costs of local water management measures for supporting land use (USD/yr),
YHP gross margin of hydropower (USD/yr),
CRWM costs of regional water management for supporting the river, canal and reservoir system (USD/yr).
Constrained by available land and water resources and a predefined budget
Visibility Critical mass
ContinuityTrack record
Options in the Nile basin
Land use change
New hydropower reservoirs
Irrigation expansion● Groundwater irrigation● Local surface water irrigation● Nile irrigation
Conservation measures
Modules
Water module (hydrology) Food module (crop production) Energy module (hydropower)
Hydrology module
Bucket-type 1 km resolution FAO Aquacrop approach
Crop module
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
ETact/ETpot
Pro
duct
ion
(%)
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
MaizePotato (Intensive)
MaizePotato
ETact/ETpotG
ross
Mar
gin
(US
D/h
a)
De Wit, Wageningen 1959 Gross MarginGM = Etact/Etpot(-) * maximum yield(tons/ha) * prices(USD/ton) – costs(USD/ha)
Hydropower module
Yield linear function of discharge until a certain maximum turbine capacity
0.08 USD / KWh
Country Hydropower station Investment (million USD)
Capacity (MW)
Maximum discharge (m3/s)
Uganda Owen Falls Existing 300 1800 Ethiopia Tis Abbay I&I I , Tana - Beles Existing 544 180 Sudan Roseires Existing 210 1689 Egypt Aswan Old Dam and High Dam Existing 2600 4152 Uganda Bujugali 730 250 1316 Uganda Kalagala 680 315 1344 Uganda Karuma Falls 450 200 577 Uganda Ayago, Murchison 1000 800 400 Ethiopia Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam 4700 5250 1750 Sudan Merowe 1700 1250 3600
Internal mechanism I: Water productivity
Internal mechanism II: Rain and ETpot
Results – 3 scenarios (2005 - 2025)• 76% increase in production needed• Egypt can gain some but loose a lot• Sudan (including South Sudan) and Uganda are key players
In gross margin (GM in million USD)National Food Self-Sufficiency Upstream Hegemony Basin Cooperation
Country
Contribution of irrigation to food self-sufficiency
Overall food self-sufficiency
Contribution of irrigation to food self-sufficiency
Overall food self-sufficiency
Contribution of irrigation to food self-sufficiency
Overall food self-sufficiency
Egypt 85% 85% 50% 50% 78% 78%Ethiopia 16% 100% 16% 87% 16% 92%Sudan ~0% 100% 56% 154% 36% 136%Uganda 0% 100% 0% 113% 0% 112%Other 0% 66% 0% 102% 0% 99%Basin 27% 92% 35% 102% 38% 107%
1566 million USD
172 million USD
623 million USD 1154 million USD
210 million USD
Increase in agricultural gross margin (in USD/ha per year) between 2005 and 2025
Results
Conclusions
A different water allocation and improved irrigation can contribute up to 25% of the needed increase in production,
but the future of food security in the Nile basin lies in utilizing the vast (forgotten) potential of rainfed agriculture in the upstream interior.
Rainfed agriculture can cover more than 75% of the needed increase in food production by the year 2025.
Stabilizing regions and strengthening intra-basin cooperation via food trade seem to be better strategies than unilateral expansion of irrigation.
Points for discussion
Demand management Optimising allocation (not only in space, but also in time) Sustainable water use (based on the “natural” limits and
added with storage potential based on a long term risk assessment of droughts).
Precision agriculture, CSA