ecosystem feedbacks to climate change · terrestrial ecosystems likely will moderate climate change...
TRANSCRIPT
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Ecosystem Feedbacks to Climate Change
Sarah E HobbieDept of Ecology, Evolution & Behavior
University of Minnesota
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Will ecosystem responses exacerbate or moderate climate change?
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Atmospheric evidence of large carbon exchanges
by the biosphere that are changing
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What is a feedback?
Driver Response
+ -
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Climate Change Feedbacks from Ecosystem Responses
Climate change
Plant growthDecomposition
CO2
Fossil fuels
-
+ , -
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IPCC 2013
Negative feedbacks
(moderate climate change)
Positive feedbacks
(exacerbate climate change)
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CO2
Plant respiration
Terrestrial Carbon Cycle
CO2
Photosynthesis
Growth
CO2
Soil respirationErosion, Fire
Groundwater transport
Litter
Roots
MicrobesSoil Organic Carbon
C accumulates when inputs > outputs
Negative feedback
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CO2
Plant respiration
Terrestrial Carbon Cycle
CO2
Photosynthesis
Growth
CO2
Soil respirationErosion, Fire
Groundwater transport
Litter
Roots
MicrobesSoil Organic Carbon
C released when inputs < outputs
Positive feedback
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IPCC 2013
Negative feedbacks
(moderate climate change)
Positive feedbacks
(exacerbate climate change)
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Climate Change Feedbacks from Ecosystem Responses
Climate change
Plant growthDecomposition
CO2
Fossil fuels
-
N
+ , -
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Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve
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The NSF LTER
Network
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What do plants need to
grow?
CO2, light, water, soil nutrients
Photosynthesis:
Conversion of CO2 to sugar using
light energy
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Leaf-level response to elevated CO2
Atmospheric CO2
Net photosynthesis
(µmol m-2 s-1)
ambient CO2
elevated CO2
smaller increase
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BioCON: CO2, N, & diversity + temp & precip
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CO2
Plant respiration
Terrestrial Carbon Cycle
CO2
Photosynthesis
Growth
CO2
Soil respirationErosion, Fire
Groundwater transport
Litter
Roots
MicrobesSoil Organic Carbon
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IPCC 2013
Negative feedbacks
(moderate climate change)
Positive feedbacks
(exacerbate climate change)
“CO2 fertilization” may moderate climate change, but only where
nutrients and water are adequate
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Climate Change Feedbacks from Ecosystem Responses
Climate change
Plant growthDecomposition
+ , -
CO2
Fossil fuels
-
N
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atmosphere: 829 Pg
1 Pg=1015 g
soils: 1500-2400 Pg
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CO2
Plant respiration
Terrestrial Carbon Cycle
CO2
Photosynthesis
Growth
CO2
Soil respirationErosion, Fire
Groundwater transport
Litter
Roots
MicrobesSoil Organic Carbon
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Southern
Boreal
Forest
Northern
Deciduous
ForestPrairie
Two sites
Three temperature treatments
Two rainfall treatments
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Boreal forest warming at an ecotone in
danger
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Boreal Species
white spruce
balsam fir
jack pine
aspen
paper birch
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Temperate Species
bur oak
sugar maple
red maple
buckthornred oakwhite pine
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Photo credit: Roy Rich
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(Tre
atm
ent m
inus c
ontr
ol)
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Cloquet Ely
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Red maple Paper birch Red oak
Balsam fir White spruce White pine
Species
Ambient Dry Ambient Dry Ambient Dry
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Red maple Paper birch Red oak
Balsam fir White spruce White pine
Species
Ambient Dry Ambient Dry Ambient Dry
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Terrestrial Carbon Cycle
CO2
Growth
CO2
Soil respirationErosion, Fire
Groundwater transport
Litter
Roots
MicrobesSoil Organic Carbon
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IPCC 2013
Negative feedbacks
(moderate climate change)
Positive feedbacks
(exacerbate climate change)
Warming effects might exacerbate or moderate climate change, depending
on species, precipitation, …
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Climate Change Feedbacks from Ecosystem Responses
Climate change
Plant growthDecomposition
CO2
Fossil fuels
-
+
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atmosphere: 829 Pg
1 Pg=1015 g = billion tonnes
soils: 1500-2400 Pg
permafrost: 1700 Pg
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Melting Permafrost, Kolyma River, Siberia
By 2040: 12% loss
By 2100: 54% loss
By 2300: 73% loss(Schuur et al. 2011)
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IPCC 2013
Negative feedbacks
(moderate climate change)
Positive feedbacks
(exacerbate climate change)
Warming effects on permafrost thaw and decomposition will exacerbate
climate change
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Will ecosystem responses exacerbate or moderate climate change?
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Shorter Term
Terrestrial ecosystems likely will moderate climate change
Longer Term
Moderation of climate change will decline, and terrestrial
ecosystems may even exacerbate climate change
- Plant growth response to elevated CO2 will saturate
- Climate warming will likely be accompanied by soil drying and
drought that will limit plant growth
- Permafrost thaw will accelerate
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Photo: Michael Yuen
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Acknowledgments
National Science Foundation
Department of Energy
Collaborators:
Peter Reich, William Eddy, Rebecca Montgomery,
Roy Rich, Artur Stefanski