Ecosystem Considerations in Alaska Systems Patricia A. Livingston Alaska Fisheries Science Center Presented at Integrated Ecosystem Observations: the Future in IOOS August 23, 2005 2 THE ALASKAN CONTEXT Federally-managed groundfish populations Federally-managed groundfish populations Conservative exploitation rates/productive stocks Conservative exploitation rates/productive stocks Declining mammal and bird stocks (fisheries management with ESA considerations) Declining mammal and bird stocks (fisheries management with ESA considerations) Pro-active management: ecosystem committee, ecosystem considerations chapter Pro-active management: ecosystem committee, ecosystem considerations chapter Estimates of juvenile and Adult Steller sea lions 3 Ecosystem-based Scientific Assessments FMP-level Biological Opinions and Environmental Impact Statements Annual Environmental Assessment on the TAC- setting process Annual Ecosystem Status and Trends and Assessment Annual Stock Assessments that include ecosystem and habitat considerations 4 Ecosystem Considerations Section Historical status and trends of BSAI and GOA using observational data from NOAA and non-NOAA contributors updated annually and reported to NPFMC Historical status and trends of BSAI and GOA using observational data from NOAA and non-NOAA contributors updated annually and reported to NPFMC Active research on ecosystem indicators is improving the presentation and analysis of observational data Active research on ecosystem indicators is improving the presentation and analysis of observational data Includes time series of climate, human influences, and biological trends Includes time series of climate, human influences, and biological trends Operationalize regime shift analysis of Mantua/Hare and separate human vs. climate influences Operationalize regime shift analysis of Mantua/Hare and separate human vs. climate influences Requires predictive models to assess future impacts of climate and humans Requires predictive models to assess future impacts of climate and humans 5 Ecosystem Measures and Influences Gear 6 Gather information Historical status and trends Ecosystem components and stressors Establish assessment Framework, objectives, Thresholds, indicators Generate management Alternatives, Future scenarios MODELS for Prediction Expert judgment to analyze impacts And provide advice DECISION Key Pieces of the Framework 7 Organization of science program: other agencies and cooperators NOAA Fisheries: AFSC NOAA Research: PMEL 8 Fishery Management Monitoring/Research Accurate estimates of removals and discards of target, nontarget in time/space Conservative single species harvests Gear effects on habitat and nontarget species Gear research to minimize bycatch Adaptive management (experimental approach) Ecosystem Observation and Research Monitoring from physics and up (composition, abundance, biological characteristics) Developing understanding of mechanisms through experimental/process-based research Improve understanding of organism behavior to changing conditions A variety of models from state of the art stock assessments to ecosystem-level to address a variety of questions Important Ingredients for an Ecosystem-based Approach 9 Marine Ecosystem Observing System - Adjustable - Field-proven and refined for 20 years - Biological and physical measurements - Components Moorings Repeatedly sampled marine stations Land stations Ship and aircraft underway samplers Satellite-tracked drifters Remotely operated and towed underwater vehicles Satellite and other remote sensing platforms - Expanded capability for real-time data delivery Plankton survey Drifter Biophysical mooring NOAA satellite FOCI mooring locations 10 Science Products: Observations Moorings Bering-Aleutian Salmon International Survey NOAA satellite 11 Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands Status and Trends BS Pelagic Trawl Duration BS Bottom Trawl Duration AI Bottom Trawl Duration Hook and Line Effort Summer Bottom Temp. FHS (R/S) Rock sole (R/S) ATF (R/S) GT (R/S) Northerns (R/S) POP (R/S) YFS (R/S) RLKI Productivity TBMU Productivity BLKI Productivity Total crab biomass BS Richness Pollock (R/S) Cod (R/S) AK Plaice (R/S) Jellyfish biomass BS Diversity Total CPUE Atka (R/S) AOI COMU Productivity May SST Herring recruits PDO Total salmon catch Surf. Winter Air Temp. AI Trophic level Ice Cover Index BS Trophic level 12 Fish community size spectrum Seabird population trends Environmental fluctuations Examples: Indicators Total catch and trophic level of the catch Status of structural habitat biota 13 Applied Research and Development Advance capability to measure, detect, assess and predict changes to marine ecosystems Activities Coupled circulation and biological models Instrument testing Observing system development and testing Multi-species and ecosystem forecast models Clockwise from upper right: model visualization of larval fish advection, preparing to deploy acoustic zooplankton profiler, FOCI-developed compact instrument control system for ships of opportunity, NOAA/AFSC energetics and recruitment models. 14 Examples: Models Numerical Biophysical Predictive Models Biological Food Base Energetic Models Single Species Recruitment Models Wilderbuer et al. 2002 15 16 Relationships to Non-Ecosystem Goal Products Climate Goal Climate Goal Objective: Understand and predict the consequences of climate variability and change on marine ecosystems North Pacific Climate Regimes and Ecosystem Productivity (NPCREP) Matrix Managed Program (AFSC/PMEL) Data archives and products for the public Data archives and products for the public PMEL EPIC online oceanographic data retrieval system PMEL regime shift detection calculator Ocean color (NASA), SST (NOAA Satellite Active Archive), sea ice (NOAA Sea Ice Center); barometric pressure, winds, radiation (NOAA NWS) NPCREP ecosystem indicators 17 Continuum of Science Products & Activities Long-term Science Long-term Science Identifying species/community/ecosystem characteristics Understanding climate/fishing relationships to species/communities/ecosystems dynamics Provision of Management Advice Provision of Management Advice Species/community/ecosystem assessments of climate/fishing impacts Continual process of improving existing products and adding new products based on long-term science activities of AFSC and others Scientists involved in providing management advice also do long-term science 18 Continuum of Science Products & Activities 19 Future directions for Bering Sea ecosystem research Future directions for Bering Sea ecosystem research Enhance observation network Develop/enhance tools to synthesize or integrate large numbers of metrics Test, confirm, or modify existing hypotheses about ecosystem function Incorporate environmental data into assessments and forecasts of species/community/ecosystems status Further linking of climate/biological/economic models Ideas for improving Bering Sea ecosystem research Ideas for improving Bering Sea ecosystem research Expand studies on the impact of the reduction in sea ice over the next 20 years More funding for basic research (lower trophic level observations, habitat and process studies) Additional days at sea Revise the service delivery model for the NPGFO Program Opportunities for greater integration of Bering Sea research Opportunities for greater integration of Bering Sea research NPFMC move towards EAF and EAM Bering Sea and Climate Change Working Group Expand research opportunities with Univ. AK Fairbanks