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Dr. Bill ConerlyEconomist & Business Consultant
Opportunities & Risks in the Evolving Business Cycle
Topics
U.S. Economy
The LaborChallenge
The Flexible Stance
?
World Economic Growth
Source: FocusEconomics consensus
0
1
2
3
4
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
annu
al %
cha
nge
U.S. Economic Growth
average
0
1
2
3
4
2015 2016 2017
% c
hang
e
Dr. Bill Conerly forecast
Consumer Income & Spending Growth
Disposable Income
Spending
0123456
2015 2016 2017 2018
12-m
onth
% c
hang
e
Inflation
All Items
Ex Food & Energy
-1
0
1
2
3
2015 2016 2017 2018
% c
hang
e12
-mon
ths
Interest Rates
Forecast: Dr. Bill Conerly
10-year Treasury
3-monthT-bill
0
1
2
3
4
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
perc
ent
U.S. Economic Forecast
Forecast of inflation-adjusted GDP: Dr. Bill Conerly
0
1
2
3
4
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
perc
ent
Topics
U.S. Economy
The LaborChallenge
The Flexible Stance
?
Unemployment
3
4
5
6
7
2015 2016 2017 2018
perc
ent
Working-age Population Growth
2020-2030
0
5
10
15
20
1850 1900 1950 2000
mill
ions
decade ending year
Civil War
Population ages 20-60; projections by Census Bureau
•Retention most important•First-level managers key to retention•Hiring: recruit for retention•Technology
Leadership in Today’s Tight Labor Market
Cost of Labor & Technology
Labor
Com-puters
-15%-10%
-5%0%5%
10%
2015 2016 2017
% c
hang
e fr
om 2
015
Topics
U.S. Economy
The LaborChallenge
The Flexible Stance
?
Risk of Recession
The Wall Street Journal survey
0
5
10
15
20
25
2015 2016 2017 2018
perc
ent
•Economy•Technology
•Social Attitudes•Government
•Competition
Uncertainty
The Sprinter’s Stance
The Flexible Stance
•What will I do in a recession?•What will I do in strong growth?
Contingency Planning
The Businomics® Newsletter
Bill @ ConerlyConsulting.com
one “n”
Questions?
Dr. Bill ConerlyEconomist & Business Consultant