economics 172 - university of california, berkeleywebfac/emiguel/e172_s07/lecture27.pdf · politics...
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Econ
omic
s 17
2Is
sues
in A
frica
n E
cono
mic
Dev
elop
men
t
Pro
fess
or T
ed M
igue
lD
epar
tmen
t of E
cono
mic
sU
nive
rsity
of C
alifo
rnia
, Ber
kele
y
Econ
omic
s 17
2Is
sues
in A
frica
n E
cono
mic
Dev
elop
men
t
Lect
ure
27 –
May
1, 2
007
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
3
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
4
Out
line:
(1)
Kee
n (2
005)
on
Sie
rra
Leon
e(2
)Th
e S
ierr
a Le
one
Civ
il W
ar (1
991-
2002
) and
its
afte
rmat
h
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
5
Pol
itics
and
Vio
lenc
e in
Sie
rra L
eone
•B
asic
his
toric
al ti
mel
ine:
–17
87: F
reet
own
esta
blis
hed
by th
e U
.K. a
s a
settl
emen
t for
free
d sl
aves
, and
a U
.K. p
rote
ctor
ate
–18
96: a
ll of
Sie
rra
Leon
e be
com
es a
pro
tect
orat
e
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
6
Map
of A
frica
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
7
Map
of S
ierr
a (w
ith 1
985
Pop
ulat
ion
dens
ity)
Free
tow
n
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
8
Pol
itics
and
Vio
lenc
e in
Sie
rra L
eone
•B
asic
his
toric
al ti
mel
ine:
–17
87: F
reet
own
esta
blis
hed
by th
e U
.K. a
s a
settl
emen
t for
free
d sl
aves
, and
a U
.K. p
rote
ctor
ate
–18
96: a
ll of
Sie
rra
Leon
e be
com
es a
pro
tect
orat
e–
1898
: Maj
or u
pris
ing
agai
nst B
ritis
h ru
le in
the
inte
rior (
“Hut
Tax
War
”)–
1928
: Sla
very
offi
cial
ly a
bolis
hed
–19
37: N
ativ
e A
dmin
istra
tion
esta
blis
hed,
with
gre
at
auth
ority
, life
time
post
s, h
igh
sala
ries
to C
hief
s
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
9
Pol
itics
and
Vio
lenc
e in
Sie
rra L
eone
•B
asic
his
toric
al ti
mel
ine:
–17
87: F
reet
own
esta
blis
hed
by th
e U
.K. a
s a
settl
emen
t for
free
d sl
aves
, and
a U
.K. p
rote
ctor
ate
–18
96: a
ll of
Sie
rra
Leon
e be
com
es a
pro
tect
orat
e–
1898
: Maj
or u
pris
ing
agai
nst B
ritis
h ru
le in
the
inte
rior (
“Hut
Tax
War
”)–
1928
: Sla
very
offi
cial
ly a
bolis
hed
–19
37: N
ativ
e A
dmin
istra
tion
esta
blis
hed,
with
gre
at
auth
ority
, life
time
post
s, h
igh
sala
ries
to C
hief
s–
1950
s: D
iam
ond
boom
spu
rred
inte
rnal
mig
ratio
n,
and
enric
hed
mai
nly
elite
s (i.
e., C
hief
s, L
eban
ese)
–19
48, 1
950,
195
5-6:
Pop
ular
revo
lts a
gain
st c
hief
s
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
10
Pos
t-ind
epen
denc
e po
litic
s•
1961
: Ind
epen
denc
e. F
irst P
rime
Min
iste
r Milt
on
Mar
gaio
f the
Sie
rra
Leon
e P
eopl
e’s
Par
ty (S
LPP
)
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
11
Pos
t-ind
epen
denc
e po
litic
s•
1961
: Ind
epen
denc
e. F
irst P
rime
Min
iste
r Milt
on
Mar
gaio
f the
Sie
rra
Leon
e P
eopl
e’s
Par
ty (S
LPP
)•
1961
-196
4: M
ilton
Mar
gaii
s co
nsid
ered
a re
ason
ably
ba
lanc
ed ru
ler,
did
not p
rom
ote
ethn
ic p
oliti
cs•
1964
-196
7: A
lber
t Mar
gai(
his
brot
her)
incr
ease
d M
ende
offic
ers
in th
e ar
my
from
26%
to 5
2%, M
ende
s al
so d
omin
ated
the
cabi
net
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
12
Pos
t-ind
epen
denc
e po
litic
s•
1961
: Ind
epen
denc
e. F
irst P
rime
Min
iste
r Milt
on
Mar
gaio
f the
Sie
rra
Leon
e P
eopl
e’s
Par
ty (S
LPP
)•
1961
-196
4: M
ilton
Mar
gaii
s co
nsid
ered
a re
ason
ably
ba
lanc
ed ru
ler,
did
not p
rom
ote
ethn
ic p
oliti
cs•
1964
-196
7: A
lber
t Mar
gai(
his
brot
her)
incr
ease
d M
ende
offic
ers
in th
e ar
my
from
26%
to 5
2%, M
ende
s al
so d
omin
ated
the
cabi
net
•19
67: O
ppos
ition
Afri
can
Peo
ple’
s C
ongr
ess
(AP
C)
won
ele
ctio
ns, l
ed b
y S
iaka
Ste
vens
. A c
oup
by
Men
dear
my
offic
ers,
SLP
P p
oliti
cian
s pu
t dow
n
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
13
Pos
t-ind
epen
denc
e po
litic
s•
1961
: Ind
epen
denc
e. F
irst P
rime
Min
iste
r Milt
on
Mar
gaio
f the
Sie
rra
Leon
e P
eopl
e’s
Par
ty (S
LPP
)•
1961
-196
4: M
ilton
Mar
gaii
s co
nsid
ered
a re
ason
ably
ba
lanc
ed ru
ler,
did
not p
rom
ote
ethn
ic p
oliti
cs•
1964
-196
7: A
lber
t Mar
gai(
his
brot
her)
incr
ease
d M
ende
offic
ers
in th
e ar
my
from
26%
to 5
2%, M
ende
s al
so d
omin
ated
the
cabi
net
•19
67: O
ppos
ition
Afri
can
Peo
ple’
s C
ongr
ess
(AP
C)
won
ele
ctio
ns, l
ed b
y S
iaka
Ste
vens
. A c
oup
by
Men
dear
my
offic
ers,
SLP
P p
oliti
cian
s pu
t dow
n•
Ste
vens
agg
ress
ivel
y in
stal
led
north
erne
rs (T
emne
, Li
mba
) in
pow
er, c
rush
ed th
e S
LPP
, and
mad
e S
ierr
a Le
one
into
a o
ne-p
arty
AP
C s
tate
. He
shut
dow
n th
e co
untry
’s p
rofit
able
railr
oad
to th
e so
uth-
east
, cut
ting
off t
rade
bet
wee
n M
ende
regi
ons
and
Free
tow
n
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
14
Pos
t-ind
epen
denc
e po
litic
s an
d po
licy
•S
teve
ns m
ade
no a
ttem
pts
at s
erio
us n
atio
n-bu
ildin
g /
crea
ting
a co
mpe
lling
Sie
rra
Leon
e id
entit
y de
spite
th
e ex
iste
nce
of a
ling
ua fr
anca
(Krio
), ex
tens
ive
inte
rmar
riage
, and
lim
ited
relig
ious
tens
ions
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
15
Pos
t-ind
epen
denc
e po
litic
s an
d po
licy
•S
teve
ns m
ade
no a
ttem
pts
at s
erio
us n
atio
n-bu
ildin
g /
crea
ting
a co
mpe
lling
Sie
rra
Leon
e id
entit
y de
spite
th
e ex
iste
nce
of a
ling
ua fr
anca
(Krio
), ex
tens
ive
inte
rmar
riage
, and
lim
ited
relig
ious
tens
ions
•P
oliti
cal i
ntim
idat
ion
thro
ugh
a “s
hado
w” s
ecur
ity
serv
ice
(“S
peci
al S
ecur
ity D
ivis
ion”
): st
uden
t pro
test
s w
ere
brut
ally
sup
pres
sed,
labo
r uni
ons
outla
wed
, ne
wsp
aper
offi
ces
blow
n up
•C
orru
ptio
n an
d pa
trona
ge p
oliti
cs w
as e
xtre
me:
a
polit
ical
cul
ture
of g
reed
bec
ame
the
norm
from
chi
efs
all t
he w
ay u
p to
min
iste
rs
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
16
Pos
t-ind
epen
denc
e po
litic
s an
d po
licy
•A
gric
ultu
ral m
arke
ting
boar
ds (f
or c
offe
e, c
acao
) of
fere
d ve
ry lo
w p
rices
in th
e 19
70s-
1980
s, a
nd th
is
led
to e
xten
sive
sm
uggl
ing
•In
crea
sing
cor
rupt
ion
in th
e m
inin
g se
ctor
and
fish
ing
sect
or, a
nd a
gric
ultu
ral p
ricin
g po
licie
s, le
d to
dr
amat
ic d
ecre
ases
in re
venu
e: b
y 19
85-6
dom
estic
re
venu
e co
llect
ion
was
just
18%
of 1
977-
8 le
vels
!
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
17
Pos
t-ind
epen
denc
e po
litic
s an
d po
licy
•A
gric
ultu
ral m
arke
ting
boar
ds (f
or c
offe
e, c
acao
) of
fere
d ve
ry lo
w p
rices
in th
e 19
70s-
1980
s, a
nd th
is
led
to e
xten
sive
sm
uggl
ing
•In
crea
sing
cor
rupt
ion
in th
e m
inin
g se
ctor
and
fish
ing
sect
or, a
nd a
gric
ultu
ral p
ricin
g po
licie
s, le
d to
dr
amat
ic d
ecre
ases
in re
venu
e: b
y 19
85-6
dom
estic
re
venu
e co
llect
ion
was
just
18%
of 1
977-
8 le
vels
!
•A
s a
resu
lt sp
endi
ng o
n se
rvic
es c
olla
psed
by
the
1980
s: S
ierr
a Le
one
was
nea
rly la
st in
the
wor
ld o
n m
ost m
easu
res
of h
ealth
(inf
ant m
orta
lity
rate
) and
ed
ucat
ion
(lite
racy
, atta
inm
ent).
Spe
ndin
g on
de
velo
pmen
t onl
y 3%
of t
he o
vera
ll bu
dget
in 1
984
•S
ierr
a Le
one
was
ripe
for p
oliti
cal u
nres
t whe
n S
teve
ns w
as re
plac
ed b
y Jo
seph
Mom
ohin
198
5
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
18
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
19
War
and
Loc
al In
stitu
tions
in S
ierra
Leo
ne•
Afte
r Sia
kaS
teve
ns s
tepp
ed d
own
in 1
985,
and
the
tota
l ec
onom
ic c
olla
pse
of th
e la
te 1
980s
, Sie
rra
Leon
e ex
perie
nced
a b
ruta
l civ
il co
nflic
t 199
1-20
02: a
t lea
st
50,0
00 k
illed
and
ove
r one
mill
ion
disp
lace
d
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
20
War
and
Loc
al In
stitu
tions
in S
ierra
Leo
ne•
Afte
r Sia
kaS
teve
ns s
tepp
ed d
own
in 1
985,
and
the
tota
l ec
onom
ic c
olla
pse
of th
e la
te 1
980s
, Sie
rra
Leon
e ex
perie
nced
a b
ruta
l civ
il co
nflic
t 199
1-20
02: a
t lea
st
50,0
00 k
illed
and
ove
r one
mill
ion
disp
lace
d
•B
ello
ws
and
Mig
uel (
2006
) est
imat
e th
e re
latio
nshi
p be
twee
n co
nflic
t int
ensi
ty a
nd la
ter l
ocal
inst
itutio
nal,
polit
ical
, and
eco
nom
ic o
utco
mes
in S
ierr
a Le
one
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
21
The
Sie
rra L
eone
Civ
il W
ar (1
991-
2002
)•
Figh
ting
star
ted
in th
e ea
ster
n Li
beria
n bo
rder
but
ev
entu
ally
affe
cted
the
entir
e co
untry
–R
adic
al d
issi
dent
s tra
ined
in L
ibya
, led
by
Foda
yS
anko
h, fo
rmed
the
Rev
olut
iona
ry U
nite
d Fr
ont
(RU
F). R
UF
was
alli
ed w
ith C
harle
s Ta
ylor
in L
iber
ia
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
22
The
Sie
rra L
eone
Civ
il W
ar (1
991-
2002
)•
Figh
ting
star
ted
in th
e ea
ster
n Li
beria
n bo
rder
but
ev
entu
ally
affe
cted
the
entir
e co
untry
–R
adic
al d
issi
dent
s tra
ined
in L
ibya
, led
by
Foda
yS
anko
h, fo
rmed
the
Rev
olut
iona
ry U
nite
d Fr
ont
(RU
F). R
UF
was
alli
ed w
ith C
harle
s Ta
ylor
in L
iber
ia
•Th
e S
ierr
a Le
one
Arm
y (S
LA) w
as c
orru
pted
by
the
mid
-19
80s,
with
offi
cer p
ositi
ons
goin
g to
the
high
est b
idde
r. C
ollu
sion
bet
wee
n re
bel R
evol
utio
nary
Uni
ted
Fron
t (R
UF)
and
SLA
mea
nt th
at m
ost v
iole
nce
was
dire
cted
ag
ains
t civ
ilian
s ra
ther
than
at e
ach
othe
r
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
23
Con
sequ
ence
s of
the
Sie
rra L
eone
war
•R
UF
atta
cker
s m
assa
cred
chi
efs
and
elde
rs, d
estro
yed
publ
ic b
uild
ings
, dis
plac
ed c
ivili
ans
–R
ecru
its o
ften
atta
cked
thei
r hom
e vi
llage
s. M
any
child
ren
wer
e fo
rcib
ly re
crui
ted
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
24
Con
sequ
ence
s of
the
Sie
rra L
eone
war
•R
UF
atta
cker
s m
assa
cred
chi
efs
and
elde
rs, d
estro
yed
publ
ic b
uild
ings
, dis
plac
ed c
ivili
ans
–R
ecru
its o
ften
atta
cked
thei
r hom
e vi
llage
s. M
any
child
ren
wer
e fo
rcib
ly re
crui
ted
•Th
e C
ivili
an D
efen
se F
orce
s (C
DF)
wer
e lo
cally
or
gani
zed
and
finan
ced
mili
tias
that
suc
cess
fully
foug
ht
off t
he R
UF/
SLA
in s
ome
area
s–
CD
F’s
wer
e or
gani
zed
arou
nd tr
aditi
onal
sec
ret
soci
etie
s, in
clud
ing
Men
dehu
nter
gro
ups
–N
ew in
stitu
tions
form
ed in
resp
onse
to th
e vi
olen
ce
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
25
Cau
ses
of th
e w
ar•
Dia
mon
d sm
uggl
ing
finan
ced
grou
p le
ader
s an
d ar
ms
purc
hase
s, a
nd a
rmed
gro
ups
ofte
n fo
ught
ove
r con
trol
of th
e m
ines
•D
eep
unde
rlyin
g gr
ieva
nces
aga
inst
the
stat
e al
so fe
d th
e vi
olen
ce:
Sie
rra
Leon
e w
as s
econ
d to
last
in th
e 19
90 U
N H
uman
Dev
elop
men
t Ind
ex, a
nd p
ublic
se
rvic
es h
ad c
ompl
etel
y fa
llen
apar
t
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
26
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
27
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
28
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
29
Whe
re w
as th
e fig
htin
g in
Sie
rra L
eone
?•
Loca
l dia
mon
d m
ines
, hig
her p
rew
ar in
com
es a
re b
oth
posi
tivel
y as
soci
ated
with
loca
l atta
cks
and
battl
es,
“gre
ed” a
s a
driv
ing
fact
or
•Is
Sie
rra
Leon
e co
ndem
ned
to p
erpe
tual
pov
erty
as
a re
sult
of th
e w
ar?
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
30
Con
flict
inte
nsity
and
pos
t-war
reco
very
•C
onfli
ct v
ictim
izat
ion
is –
surp
risin
gly
–po
sitiv
ely
asso
ciat
ed w
ith s
ever
al m
easu
res
of p
ostw
ar p
oliti
cal
mob
iliza
tion,
incl
udin
g co
mm
unity
mee
ting
atte
ndan
ce,
vote
r reg
istra
tion,
com
mun
ity g
roup
mem
bers
hip
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
31
Con
flict
inte
nsity
and
pos
t-war
reco
very
•C
onfli
ct v
ictim
izat
ion
is –
surp
risin
gly
–po
sitiv
ely
asso
ciat
ed w
ith s
ever
al m
easu
res
of p
ostw
ar p
oliti
cal
mob
iliza
tion,
incl
udin
g co
mm
unity
mee
ting
atte
ndan
ce,
vote
r reg
istra
tion,
com
mun
ity g
roup
mem
bers
hip
–A
nd th
ere
is n
o si
gnifi
cant
neg
ativ
e re
latio
nshi
p be
twee
n co
nflic
t exp
osur
e an
d po
stw
ar 2
004
soci
oeco
nom
ic o
utco
mes
(per
cap
ita c
onsu
mpt
ion,
sc
hool
ing,
chi
ld n
utrit
ion)
–P
artia
l rec
over
y fro
m th
e w
ar a
ppea
rs to
hav
e be
en
very
rapi
d (w
ithin
onl
y a
few
yea
rs)
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
32
-.4-.20.2Meeting Attendance (residuals)
-.20
.2C
onfli
ct v
ictim
izat
ion
inde
x (r
esid
uals
)
Mee
ting
Atte
ndan
ce (r
esid
uals
)Fi
tted
valu
es
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
33
Sie
rra L
eone
GD
P P
er C
apita
050100
150
200
250
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Year
US$ PPP
Sie
rra L
eone
GD
P P
erC
apita
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
34
The
botto
m li
ne•
We
find
no li
nger
ing
adve
rse
effe
cts
of c
ivil
war
vio
lenc
e in
Sie
rra
Leon
e on
loca
l liv
ing
stan
dard
s or
inst
itutio
ns
–S
ever
al m
easu
res
of p
oliti
cal m
obili
zatio
n / c
olle
ctiv
e ac
tion
are
som
ewha
t bet
ter i
n ar
eas
that
exp
erie
nced
m
ore
viol
ence
dur
ing
the
conf
lict
–60
% o
f 200
5 IR
CB
P re
spon
dent
s cl
aim
that
the
war
po
sitiv
ely
impa
cted
com
mun
ity c
oope
ratio
n–
Inst
itutio
ns, n
orm
s, a
nd o
rgan
izat
ions
forg
ed d
urin
g w
ar p
ersi
st in
to th
e po
stw
ar p
erio
d
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
35
Impl
icat
ions
•M
ore
spec
ulat
ivel
y: d
id th
e S
ierr
a Le
one
civi
l war
ge
nera
te n
ew –
and
poss
ibly
stro
nger
–lo
cal
inst
itutio
ns?
Loca
l gov
ernm
ents
?
•K
een
(200
5) c
laim
s th
e w
ar in
crea
sed
polit
ical
aw
aren
ess
and
mob
iliza
tion,
esp
ecia
lly fo
r you
ths
•Fe
rme
(200
1, p
. 228
): “[S
ierr
a Le
onea
ns] h
ave
som
etim
es tu
rned
[soc
ial i
nsta
bilit
y] in
to a
cre
ativ
e,
thou
gh v
iole
nt, o
ppor
tuni
ty to
refa
shio
n th
emse
lves
vis
-à-
vis
thei
r ow
n in
stitu
tions
”
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
36
Impl
icat
ions
•M
ore
spec
ulat
ivel
y: d
id th
e S
ierr
a Le
one
civi
l war
ge
nera
te n
ew –
and
poss
ibly
stro
nger
–lo
cal
inst
itutio
ns?
Loca
l gov
ernm
ents
?
•K
een
(200
5) c
laim
s th
e w
ar in
crea
sed
polit
ical
aw
aren
ess
and
mob
iliza
tion,
esp
ecia
lly fo
r you
ths
•Fe
rme
(200
1, p
. 228
): “[S
ierr
a Le
onea
ns] h
ave
som
etim
es tu
rned
[soc
ial i
nsta
bilit
y] in
to a
cre
ativ
e,
thou
gh v
iole
nt, o
ppor
tuni
ty to
refa
shio
n th
emse
lves
vis
-à-
vis
thei
r ow
n in
stitu
tions
”
•U
ncer
tain
ty o
ver t
he J
uly
2007
Pre
side
ntia
l ele
ctio
ns
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
37
•Fo
r nex
t tim
e: re
adin
gs o
n B
otsw
ana,
Afri
ca’s
bes
t-kn
own
succ
ess
stor
y
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
38
Whi
tebo
ard
#1
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
39
Whi
tebo
ard
#2
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
40
Whi
tebo
ard
#3
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
41
Whi
tebo
ard
#4
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
42
Whi
tebo
ard
#5
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
43
Map
of A
frica
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
27
44
Map
of A
frica