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Econ
omic
s 17
2Is
sues
in A
frica
n E
cono
mic
Dev
elop
men
t
Pro
fess
or T
ed M
igue
lD
epar
tmen
t of E
cono
mic
sU
nive
rsity
of C
alifo
rnia
, Ber
kele
y
Econ
omic
s 17
2Is
sues
in A
frica
n E
cono
mic
Dev
elop
men
t
Lect
ure
16 �
Mar
ch 8
, 200
7
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
16
3
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
16
4
The
Girl
s S
chol
arsh
ip P
rogr
am (G
SP
)
�G
SP
is a
rand
omiz
ed e
valu
atio
n of
a m
erit
awar
d fo
r G
rade
6 g
irls
in B
usia
and
Teso
dist
ricts
, Ken
ya
�64
trea
tmen
t sch
ools
, 63
com
paris
on s
choo
ls
�Th
e to
p 15
% o
f girl
s in
pro
gram
sch
ools
(by
dist
rict)
rece
ived
a $
38 p
rize
for s
choo
l fee
s an
d su
pplie
s ov
er
two
year
s, a
nd a
pub
lic a
war
ds c
erem
ony
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
16
5
Two
GS
P re
sear
ch q
uest
ions
(#1)
Wha
t im
pact
do
thes
e in
cent
ives
hav
e on
test
sco
res
and
othe
r mea
sure
s of
sch
ool p
erfo
rman
ce?
!R
ando
miz
ed e
valu
atio
n m
etho
ds
(#2)
Wha
t im
pact
doe
s w
inni
ng th
e G
SP
aw
ard
have
on
late
r sch
oolin
g ch
oice
s an
d ou
tcom
es?
In p
artic
ular
do
es it
mak
e it
mor
e lik
ely
that
win
ners
sta
y in
sch
ool?
!R
egre
ssio
n di
scon
tinui
ty m
etho
ds
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
16
6
The
Girl
s S
chol
arsh
ip P
rogr
am (G
SP
)
�Th
e ra
ndom
izat
ion
�wor
ked�
: tre
atm
ent a
nd
com
paris
on g
roup
sch
ools
are
sim
ilar a
t bas
elin
e (T
able
3, F
igur
e 5)
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
16
7
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
16
8
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
16
9
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
16
10
Why
mig
ht in
cent
ives
hav
e an
impa
ct?
Theo
retic
al p
ersp
ectiv
es
�E
xtrin
sic
mot
ivat
ion
(exp
loiti
ng im
med
iate
gra
tific
atio
n)�
vs. I
ntrin
sic
mot
ivat
ion
(�lo
ve o
f lea
rnin
g�)
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
16
11
Why
mig
ht in
cent
ives
hav
e an
impa
ct?
Theo
retic
al p
ersp
ectiv
es
�E
xtrin
sic
mot
ivat
ion
(exp
loiti
ng im
med
iate
gra
tific
atio
n)�
vs. I
ntrin
sic
mot
ivat
ion
(�lo
ve o
f lea
rnin
g�)
�G
reat
teac
her e
ffort
(altr
uism
, rec
ogni
tion)
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
16
12
Why
mig
ht in
cent
ives
hav
e an
impa
ct?
Theo
retic
al p
ersp
ectiv
es
�E
xtrin
sic
mot
ivat
ion
(exp
loiti
ng im
med
iate
gra
tific
atio
n)�
vs. I
ntrin
sic
mot
ivat
ion
(�lo
ve o
f lea
rnin
g�)
�G
reat
teac
her e
ffort
(altr
uism
, rec
ogni
tion)
�P
aren
t enc
oura
gem
ent /
pre
ssur
e on
the
girls
�C
omm
unity
mob
iliza
tion
to s
uppo
rt th
e pr
ogra
m
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
16
13
GS
P e
mpi
rical
impa
cts
(200
1-20
02)
�Im
pact
s ar
e po
sitiv
e an
d qu
ite la
rge
for c
ohor
t 1:
0.12
-0.1
3 st
anda
rd d
evia
tions
on
aver
age
(Tab
le 4
)
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
16
14
GS
P e
mpi
rical
impa
cts
(200
1-20
02)
�Im
pact
s ar
e po
sitiv
e an
d qu
ite la
rge
for c
ohor
t 1:
0.12
-0.1
3 st
anda
rd d
evia
tions
on
aver
age
(Tab
le 4
)
�Th
ere
are
posi
tive
effe
cts
for b
oys,
too
�ev
en th
ough
th
ey w
ere
not e
ligib
le fo
r the
priz
e! E
xter
nalit
ies
�P
ositi
ve e
ffect
s ar
e co
ncen
trate
d in
Bus
iadi
stric
t (g
ains
of 0
.2 s
.d.),
but
are
zer
o in
Tes
odi
stric
t
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
16
15
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
16
16
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
16
17
Diff
icul
ties
in T
eso
dist
rict
�Th
is N
GO
, and
oth
er N
GO
s, h
ave
long
had
trou
ble
intro
duci
ng n
ew p
roje
cts
into
Tes
odi
stric
t�
The
dom
inan
t eth
nic
grou
ps a
re d
iffer
ent i
n B
usia
dist
rict a
nd T
eso
dist
rict
�Th
ere
was
a tr
agic
ligh
tnin
g st
rike
inci
dent
in a
Tes
odi
stric
t prim
ary
scho
ol in
Apr
il 20
01 �
seve
n st
uden
ts
died
(27
inju
red)
, and
NG
O p
roje
ct w
ork
beca
me
even
m
ore
diffi
cult
afte
rwar
ds. F
ive
Teso
dist
rict s
choo
ls
pulle
d ou
t of t
he p
rogr
am
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
16
18
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
16
19
Why
are
ther
e pr
ogra
m e
ffect
s in
Bus
ia?
�S
tude
nt s
choo
l par
ticip
atio
n in
crea
sed
by 5
per
cent
age
poin
ts in
pro
gram
sch
ools
(Tab
le 7
), fo
r girl
s an
d bo
ys
in B
usia
dist
rict
�Te
ache
r atte
ndan
ce in
crea
sed
5 pe
rcen
tage
poi
nts
�Th
ere
are
no s
igni
fican
t cha
nges
in s
tude
nts�
stud
y ha
bits
, wor
k at
hom
e, o
r atti
tude
s to
war
d ed
ucat
ion
/ in
trins
ic m
otiv
atio
n (T
able
6)
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
16
20
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
16
21
Wha
t are
the
polic
y im
plic
atio
ns?
�P
ositi
ve im
pact
s:--
Test
sco
res
impr
oved
mor
e th
an a
ny o
ther
pro
ject
w
e ha
ve s
tudi
ed in
Ken
ya, a
nd fo
r rel
ativ
ely
low
cos
t--
GS
P c
ould
pro
mot
e em
pow
erm
ent o
f wom
en a
nd
chan
ges
in s
ocia
l nor
ms
abou
t girl
s�ed
ucat
ion
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
16
22
Wha
t are
the
polic
y im
plic
atio
ns?
�P
ositi
ve im
pact
s:--
Test
sco
res
impr
oved
mor
e th
an a
ny o
ther
pro
ject
w
e ha
ve s
tudi
ed in
Ken
ya, a
nd fo
r rel
ativ
ely
low
cos
t--
GS
P c
ould
pro
mot
e em
pow
erm
ent o
f wom
en a
nd
chan
ges
in s
ocia
l nor
ms
abou
t girl
s�ed
ucat
ion
�P
ossi
ble
conc
erns
/ lim
itatio
ns:
--W
ill th
e im
pact
s la
st?
In th
e lo
ng-r
un, w
ill G
SP
de
stro
y th
e lo
ve o
f lea
rnin
g in
thes
e ki
ds?
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
16
23
Wha
t is
the
impa
ct o
f win
ning
the
awar
d?
�U
S$3
8 is
a lo
t of m
oney
in ru
ral K
enya
--Th
is m
oney
wen
t to
pay
for s
choo
l fee
s, a
nd w
as
supp
osed
to b
e us
ed fo
r sch
ool s
uppl
ies
�D
id w
inni
ng th
e aw
ard
mak
e gi
rls m
ore
likel
y to
sta
y in
sc
hool
in th
e m
ediu
m-r
un, t
hrou
gh 2
005-
2006
? (b
y ea
sing
cre
dit c
onst
rain
ts fo
r poo
r hou
seho
lds?
)
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
16
24
Wha
t is
the
impa
ct o
f win
ning
the
awar
d?
�U
S$3
8 is
a lo
t of m
oney
in ru
ral K
enya
--Th
is m
oney
wen
t to
pay
for s
choo
l fee
s, a
nd w
as
supp
osed
to b
e us
ed fo
r sch
ool s
uppl
ies
�D
id w
inni
ng th
e aw
ard
mak
e gi
rls m
ore
likel
y to
sta
y in
sc
hool
in th
e m
ediu
m-r
un, t
hrou
gh 2
005-
2006
? (b
y ea
sing
cre
dit c
onst
rain
ts fo
r poo
r hou
seho
lds?
)
�Th
e pr
oble
m fo
r eva
luat
ion:
win
ners
are
not
rand
omly
ch
osen
. Win
ning
is a
func
tion
of o
ne�s
aca
dem
ic
perfo
rman
ce, w
hich
we
expe
ct to
hav
e a
larg
e ef
fect
on
late
r sch
ool a
ttain
men
t
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
16
25
2001
exa
m
scor
e
Edu
catio
nal
atta
inm
ent
2005
-200
6 (y
rs)
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
16
26
2001
exa
m
scor
e
Edu
catio
nal
atta
inm
ent
2005
-200
6 (y
rs)
Sco
re*
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
16
27
2001
exa
m
scor
e
Edu
catio
nal
atta
inm
ent
2005
-200
6 (y
rs)
GS
P w
inne
rsG
SP
lose
rs
Sco
re*
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
16
28
The
regr
essi
on d
isco
ntin
uity
(RD
) app
roac
h
�C
lear
ly c
ompa
ring
win
ners
to lo
sers
is n
ot a
ver
y ap
peal
ing
stra
tegy
: the
win
ners
are
muc
h be
tter
stud
ents
, so
lose
rs a
re n
ot a
nat
ural
com
paris
on g
roup
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
16
29
The
regr
essi
on d
isco
ntin
uity
(RD
) app
roac
h
�C
lear
ly c
ompa
ring
win
ners
to lo
sers
is n
ot a
ver
y ap
peal
ing
stra
tegy
: the
win
ners
are
muc
h be
tter
stud
ents
, so
lose
rs a
re n
ot a
nat
ural
com
paris
on g
roup
�O
ne w
ay to
get
aro
und
this
is to
focu
s on
stu
dent
s �v
ery
clos
e to
�the
win
ning
thre
shol
d te
st s
core
leve
l
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
16
30
2001
exa
m
scor
e
Edu
catio
nal
atta
inm
ent
2005
-200
6 (y
rs)
GS
P w
inne
rsG
SP
lose
rs
Sco
re*
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
16
31
The
regr
essi
on d
isco
ntin
uity
(RD
) app
roac
h
�C
lear
ly c
ompa
ring
win
ners
to lo
sers
is n
ot a
ver
y ap
peal
ing
stra
tegy
: the
win
ners
are
muc
h be
tter
stud
ents
, so
lose
rs a
re n
ot a
nat
ural
com
paris
on g
roup
�O
ne w
ay to
get
aro
und
this
is to
focu
s on
stu
dent
s �v
ery
clos
e to
�the
win
ning
thre
shol
d te
st s
core
leve
l
�In
the
limit,
com
parin
g th
e st
uden
t who
just
bar
ely
won
(r
ecei
ving
Sco
re*)
to th
e st
uden
t who
just
bar
ely
lost
(S
core
* �
ε) y
ield
sa
com
paris
on g
roup
of l
oser
s al
mos
t ide
ntic
al to
win
ners
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
16
32
The
regr
essi
on d
isco
ntin
uity
(RD
) app
roac
h
�In
pra
ctic
e al
l dat
a ca
n be
use
d in
the
anal
ysis
, but
one
fir
st c
ontro
ls fo
r the
(sm
ooth
) pol
ynom
ial t
est s
core
tre
nd a
nd e
stim
ates
any
�jum
p�at
the
win
ning
th
resh
old
test
sco
re le
vel
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
16
33
The
regr
essi
on d
isco
ntin
uity
(RD
) app
roac
h
�In
pra
ctic
e al
l dat
a ca
n be
use
d in
the
anal
ysis
, but
one
fir
st c
ontro
ls fo
r the
(sm
ooth
) pol
ynom
ial t
est s
core
tre
nd a
nd e
stim
ates
any
�jum
p�at
the
win
ning
th
resh
old
test
sco
re le
vel
�Th
is d
isco
ntin
uity
is th
e R
D e
stim
ate
of th
e im
pact
of
win
ning
the
scho
lars
hip
on la
ter s
choo
l enr
ollm
ent
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
16
34
2001
exa
m
scor
e
Edu
catio
nal
atta
inm
ent
2005
-200
6 (y
rs)
GS
P w
inne
rsG
SP
lose
rs
Sco
re*
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
16
35
2001
exa
m
scor
e
Edu
catio
nal
atta
inm
ent
2005
-200
6 (y
rs)
GS
P w
inne
rsG
SP
lose
rs
Sco
re*
RD
est
imat
e of
the
impa
ct o
f win
ning
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
16
36
The
GS
P T
rack
ing
Pro
ject
(200
5-20
07)
�B
etw
een
Sep
tem
ber 2
005
�Fe
brua
ry 2
007,
an
atte
mpt
was
mad
e to
find
and
sur
vey
all o
f the
GS
P
sam
ple
girls
in B
usia
dist
rict.
The
goal
: the
est
imat
e lo
nger
-term
impa
cts
of th
e pr
ogra
m o
n th
eir
educ
atio
nal a
ttain
men
t, la
bor m
arke
t suc
cess
, m
arria
ge a
nd fe
rtilit
y ch
oice
s, a
nd h
ealth
�W
e m
anag
ed to
sur
vey
82%
of t
he s
ampl
e. T
he d
ata
is
liter
ally
bra
nd n
ew (a
s of
last
wee
k ;)
but s
ome
resu
lts
are
star
ting
to tr
ickl
e in
�
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
16
37
The
GS
P T
rack
ing
Pro
ject
(200
5-20
07)
�V
ery
prel
imin
ary
findi
ngs:
(1) G
irls
in tr
eatm
ent s
choo
ls h
ave
appr
oxim
atel
y 0.
17
addi
tiona
l yea
rs o
f sch
oolin
g co
mpl
eted
by
2005
-200
6
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
16
38
The
GS
P T
rack
ing
Pro
ject
(200
5-20
07)
�V
ery
prel
imin
ary
findi
ngs:
(1) G
irls
in tr
eatm
ent s
choo
ls h
ave
appr
oxim
atel
y 0.
17
addi
tiona
l yea
rs o
f sch
oolin
g co
mpl
eted
by
2005
-200
6
(2) G
SP
win
ners
(with
in th
e tre
atm
ent s
choo
ls) h
ave
atta
ined
an
addi
tiona
l 0.1
9 ye
ars
of s
choo
ling!
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
16
39
2001
exa
m
scor
e
Edu
catio
nal
atta
inm
ent
2005
-200
6 (y
rs)
GS
P w
inne
rsG
SP
lose
rs
Sco
re*
+0.1
9 ye
ars
Eco
nom
ics
172:
Lec
ture
16
40
Usi
ng th
e R
D a
ppro
ach
�M
ore
gene
rally
RD
met
hods
can
be
used
whe
neve
r pr
ogra
m /
treat
men
t ass
ignm
ent h
as a
�sha
rp
disc
ontin
uity
�, in
oth
er w
ords
, a v
ery
rapi
d ch
ange
in
the
likel
ihoo
d of
ass
ignm
ent w
ith re
spec
t to
an
unde
rlyin
g �s
moo
th�v
aria
ble
(her
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172:
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Eco
nom
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172:
Lec
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16
42
5.96.16.36.56.7First-grade enrollment age
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Eco
nom
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172:
Lec
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16
43
5.96.16.36.56.7First-grade enrollment age
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5/1
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Eco
nom
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172:
Lec
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16
44
5.96.16.36.56.7First-grade enrollment age
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4/1
5/1
6/1
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1D
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f birt
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0.01.02.03.04.05Retained in first grade
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4/1
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Eco
nom
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172:
Lec
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16
45
0.01.02.03.04.05Retained in first grade
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Eco
nom
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172:
Lec
ture
16
46
�Fo
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Eco
nom
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172:
Lec
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16
47
Whi
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Eco
nom
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172:
Lec
ture
16
48
Whi
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Eco
nom
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172:
Lec
ture
16
49
Whi
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#3
Eco
nom
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172:
Lec
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16
50
Whi
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Eco
nom
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172:
Lec
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16
51
Whi
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Eco
nom
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172:
Lec
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16
52
Map
of A
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Eco
nom
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172:
Lec
ture
16
53
Map
of A
frica