economic viability report - boston borough council · economic viability report with regards to the...

Economic Viability Report

With Regards to the Viability of

The Witham House Public Tavern 5 Witham Bank East

Boston Lincolnshire

PE21 9JU

Prepared on behalf of

Mrs C Guille 5 Witham Bank East

Boston Lincolnshire

PE21 9JU

8 January 2016

Poyntons Consultancy Ltd 24, 26, 28, South Street

Boston Lincolnshire

PE21 6HT 01205 361694

Feasibility Report – The Witham Tavern, Witham Bank East, Boston 08 January 2016

Poyntons Consultancy

CONTENTS

1.

Executive Summary

Client’s Brief and Introduction to the Report

2.

Location

3.

Description

4.

Trading History

5.

The Public House Licensed Trade Market

6.

Analysis of the Failure of the Witham Town

Conclusion



CONTENTS ~ Continued

APPENDICES

1. Location Plan

2.

Site Plan

3.

4.

Photographs

List of Public Houses

5. Plan Indicating Density of Pubs within 0.5-1.0 mile Radius

6.

Brochure for Sale of Property in July 2011



EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This report considers the economic viability of The Witham Tavern public house.

Items considered in the report include National public house closure trends, closures in Boston,

local demography, the location of the property and the shape and size of the property, local

competition to the property, trading history and other factors.

The conclusion of this report is that there is little or no economic viability with regards to the

ongoing running of the public house as an independent entity.



1. Brief and Introduction

Poyntons Consultancy Limited have been instructed by Mrs C Guille to provide an opinion

as to the economic viability of the Witham Tavern Public House, Boston, Lincolnshire.

The scope of this report encompasses the existing premises, the locale, the national and

local trading situation with regards to public houses and possible reasons why this

business has failed multiple times over the last 10 year period.

Conclusions looking at the evidence have been reached at the end as to why licensees at

the address have not succeeded.

The report has been prepared by James Fairman, MRICS, a Chartered Surveyor at

Poyntons Consultancy Limited to specialise in commercial property in the South

Lincolnshire region with offices in Boston.

Existing clients include breweries and owners of public houses. The company has sold a

number of public houses in the last two year period and feels well qualified to express

opinions on the state of the market and licensed trade related issues.



2.

Location

The Witham Tavern comprises a public house located in Boston, Lincolnshire.

Boston is a market town with a resident population of approximately 68,000 with a 2011

consensus.

The local economy relies heavily on agro commercial businesses including intensive

commercial farming and food packaging. The town has a strong retail offering, twice

weekly market with local major employers including the local hospital, Local Authority,

Fogarty’s, Dynamic Cassette International and the farming community.

The town has seen a great increase in immigrant population over the last 10 year period,

fuelled by economic migrants looking for work, which is obtainable in the fields and pack

houses around the town.

The property is located approximately 1km to the north-west of the town retail centre, to

the east of the River Witham, in a cul de sac immediately to the west of the Nottingham

to Skegness railway line.

Neighbours include residential property and the railway itself, the cul de sac terminating

at No 7 Witham Bank East turning into a public footpath heading alongside the east bank

of the River Witham towards Lincoln, which is 30 miles to the north-west. To the north-

west of the property are residential properties extending along the towpath with rear

vehicular access from Witham Town leading into Tattershall Road to the rear.

Tattershall Road is a largely residential area comprising high density freehold houses

leading into local authority accommodation in Jubilee Avenue, Sherwood Avenue and

Robin Hoods Walk, with sheltered accommodation off Whiting Square and terraced

housing on Norfolk Place.



3. Description

A location plan, site plan and photographs of the property are included within the

appendices of the report.

The property comprises a detached freehold public house with residential

accommodation over.

The property is of conventional construction being originally built in the Victorian era

sometime around 1900, with later pitched and flat roof extensions to give an extensive

dining area to the rear.

The main trading accommodation is located on the ground floor. A centrally located

doorway leads to an entrance lobby where there is a bar area and games room.

Internal walls have been removed around the bar area which has now been extended

into additional seating.

Three steps lead down to the rear which is divided into two main dining areas.

In addition on the ground floor is the beer cellar, to the rear of which is a commercial

kitchen, WC and ancillary accommodation and a small enclosed rear garden area with

parking.

An internal doorway leads to stairs where there is a two bedroomed apartment on the

first floor for Manager’s Accommodation.



4. Trading History

The property has operated as a public house for the last century, with a later emphasis

in the latter quarter of the 20th Century on food provision.

Within the last 15 years, the property has had a number of owners and tenants

providing a variety of different offerings.

The property was run by a tenant as a public house with food from 2001-2006 and was

subsequently sub-let to a number of tenants, each failing to run a profitable business.

In 2006, the property was altered to provide a Thai restaurant by two families. These

tenants were evicted for non-payment of rent, following a bankruptcy.

Between 2007 and 2010, the building had seven different sets of tenants who were

running a public house with food.

Following a year long tenancy in 2009-2010 the public house was closed.

The property was offered for sale in 2010 as a Freehold with Vacant Possession

(brochure enclosed), the property was offered by Private Treaty and remained unsold.

Having been approached by Savills the property was subsequently purchased by the

current owner, Mrs C Guille of Witham Bank East in 2011.

The pub has been trading since that time unprofitably. Trading accounts are available on

request.

Mrs Guille offered the property to the market as a Freehold with Vacant Possession with

Christies in 2012 and it remained on the market for a period of two years without an

enquiry before it was withdrawn from sale.



5.

The Public House Licensed Trade Market

National Market

Reference to a parliamentary briefing held in the library of the House of Commons in

May 2015 has provided some statistics relating to the decline in the demand in the East

Midlands and nationally for public houses from the public.

This trend has been associated with an overall decline in beer sales and the

corresponding growth in the off licence trade killing sales of alcohol by supermarkets.

The British Beer and Pub Association estimate the total numbers of pubs in the UK has

fallen by 19% since the year 2000 from 60,800 to 49,433 in 2012.

There is no doubt that there has been a significant decline in the number of pubs since

2012 but statistics have not yet been produced for this period.

It is estimated that two fifths of these properties are independent, with one fifth being

owned by brewers and two fifths owned by pub companies.

The pub closure rate peaked in around 2009 with 52 pubs being closed per week. It is

estimated that this closure rate has now fallen to around 28 pubs a week.

The losses have been heaviest in urban areas particularly pubs just outside of town

centres, which were traditionally seen as drinks led community pubs. These pubs, of

which the Witham Tavern is one, have seen a continued decline in beer sales. The BBPA

estimate that the UK beer drinking volumes have fallen by 35% since 1979.

Corresponding off trade sales have grown from 12% of UK beer sales in 1980 to over

47% in 2012.

The decline in the number of public houses over the last 10 years has resulted in a large

sell off by the National Brewers, the Pub House Estates with the emergence of the

PUBCO, a Pub Company. This has added competition for privately owned free houses



with no tie, a market that is declining.

Some major companies, such as Wetherspoons have been able to bulk buy cheap

alcohol and this has added even more pressure on independently owned public houses

with regards to beer margins. Therefore it is true to say that the market has been

increasingly dominated by a few small players to the detriment of the independent

operators.

Local Market

Historically Boston has had an unusually high number of pubs per head and seen a

larger number of closures than average over the last 15 year period. This could be seen

to be because the pubs provided sustenance for labourers who were involved in

agricultural activities. Changes in mechanised farming practices have reduced the

amount of labour required for harvest, which has resulted in a number of natural

closures for community centred public houses.

However, the closure rate has accelerated over the last 15 years because of the

economic issues outlined above with regards to national trends but also possibly because

of increased taxation on alcohol and the smoking ban.

In the appendices are a list of public houses in Boston and the locality.

Since 2010, out of the 84 public houses listed in Boston and around approximately

37.5% are now closed and or on the market.

Approximately 50 of these properties are within the suburban conurbation of Boston

Town and since 2010 approximately 40% are either closed, or on the market either for

sale or to let.

Full details of these are available in the appendices, however, the properties that are

closed in the town locale include the Woad Man on Church Road, the Kings Head on

Emery Lane, the Still in the Market Place, the Volunteer Inn on Skirbeck Road, the



Beridge Arms on Station Road, the Great Northern on Station Street and the New Castle

Inn on Fydell Street.

A relatively large number of pubs are on the market currently as opportunities available

to rent or buy including the Stump and Candle in the Market Place, the New Castle Inn

on Fydell Street, the Town Pump on Sibsey Lane, the Ship Tavern on South Street,

Merrimans on Great Fen Road, the Ball House on Wainfleet Road, the Red Cow Inn on

Wide Bargate, the Lord Nelson on Woodville Road and the Peacock Inn on High Street.

Therefore, locally it can be seen that closure rate of public houses in Boston is high.



6. Analysis of the Failure of the Witham Tavern

The Witham Tavern has had a poor trading history over the last 15 year period with 7

separate landlords attempting three different types of businesses from the same

address, all of which have failed to make a profit and one of which has been declared

bankrupt as a result.

This report has already outlined that the licensed trade sector has been negatively

affected by changes in the economy, changes in smoking regulations and competition

from off licence trade and cheap supermarket sources of alcohol.

In addition, Boston has been more than adversely affected by pub closures, possibly

because of other social reasons relating to migration and changes in leisure habits.

The property is located in an area of high density residential housing. Traditionally it

would have served for evening drinkers. Close by to the property is The Unicorn Inn

which has now taken over this function leaving the Witham Tavern largely redundant.

Other competitive public houses within the region are located within half a mile and

include The New Castle Inn (currently shut), The Carpenters Arms, The Little Peacock

and a number of other pubs on West Street and the Market Place totalling 25.

In the appendices of this report is a plan showing a 0.5 mile radius indicating that the

density of pubs within this half mile is far higher than average and the area is well

served by competitors.

If one takes in the area of 1 mile, then the number of pubs within this radius increases

to around 40 properties.

Therefore it is felt that if the Witham Tavern were to close, there are plenty of other

alternative venues for customers.

The area in which the pub is located has a lower than average amount of disposable



income and a higher than average age.

This has affected the through flow of customers at the premises which has probably

contributed to its failure as a venue.

There is a relatively large amount of Local Authority and Sheltered Housing within a

300m radius to the east of the River Witham.

The property is located on a cul de sac and therefore it is a low profile location in terms

of visibility, with no passing trade to any discernible level.

In addition, there is no daytime working population, as opposed to a town centre pub so

very few visitors for lunches as evidenced by the till receipts.

The public house is also adversely affected by its close proximity to the railway which

overlooks the garden area to the rear.

Unfortunately for the public house, a large 80,000ft2 Asda Supermarket is located on the

other side of the Sluice Bridge, approximately 300m from the property.

This property supplies cheap alcohol to the local populous making very difficult trading

conditions for the Witham Tavern.

The building has a large and awkward plan shape.

The footprint of the property extends to over 3,000ft2 and has a number of different

floor levels and areas which are out of sight from the main bar.

Therefore the property experiences greatly increased staffing costs, in order to patrol the

trading area and this has also resulted in a high rateable value which reduces the

profitability of any operations carried out there.

Some trade could be derived from Sunday lunches at the premises, however although



this has been tried on numerous occasions over the last 15 years, the public house is not

considered to be a destination driven venue. This has been exacerbated recently by a

number of incidences with uncontrolled alcohol being drunk on the tow path close to the

Marina which has certainly discouraged visitors in the general area.

It is not true to say that the property could be forced to stay open, it already has

permitted development rights for a retail development, however this is unlikely to

happen as the location is poor with regards to its profile, visibility, passing trade and

general footfall.

The property is not located on a bus route and there is no external area at the front of

the property, the current arrangement of decking being on land on the neighbouring

property, the boundary being close to the front elevation.

Alternative types of business have been tried at the pub including Thai restaurant, steak

house and other food offerings, however they have all failed due to the nature of the

property as outlined above.

The bed and breakfast market has also been attempted and it is generally felt not to be

a destination that would be suitable for this type of clientele.

The property was purchased in 2011 and was closed again at the time it was transferred

to its current ownership.

Much effort has been put into maintaining a high quality offering, however the property

has failed to make any sort of profit trading at a loss.



Conclusion

Over the last 15 year period, trade at the Witham Tavern has suffered greatly due to a

national decline in the popularity of public houses generally having an inappropriate

catchment area with too much competition from other public houses and

supermarkets selling cheap alcohol.

The building has an inefficient plan shape with regards to running a business requiring

higher than average staffing costs and it is not DDA (Disability Discrimination Act)

compliant.

The property is located on a cul-de-sac with little passing trade, in an area which has

seen high levels of alcohol abuse discouraging destination driven diners.

The property has seen a number of tenants fail at the premises over the last 15 year

period including a variety of different types of business including a Thai restaurant

which resulted in a bankruptcy.

Although the pub is currently well run, promoting itself to customers and offering a

high level of service, it would appear to not produce sufficient trade to make a profit,

currently running at a loss and it is considered that the building is not financially viable

as a public house and alternative uses should be considered acceptable.

The area is well served by The Unicorn, which is approximately 70m away from the

property and also on the other side of the bridge, The New Castle Inn, which is

currently closed.

Within half a mile radius of the pub are 25 other public houses, there are around 40

within a mile radius of the property which is more than adequate for the local

population.

Therefore it is considered there is little economic viability for the public house in its

current form.



APPENDIX 1

Location Plan



APPENDIX 2

Site Plan



APPENDIX 3

Photographs



APPENDIX 4

List of Public Houses



Address Status

THE WINE BAR & CLUB F.L.U.I.D, BRIDGE STREET, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 8QF OPEN

MOORES ARMS, CHURCH END, FRAMPTON, BOSTON, LINCS, PE20 1AD

CLOSED - ON

MARKET

ANGEL INN, CHURCH END, WRANGLE, BOSTON, LINCS, PE22 9EW OPEN - ON MARKET

WOAD MAN INN, CHURCH ROAD, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 0LJ CLOSED

FIVE BELLS 1, CHURCH ROAD, BUTTERWICK, BOSTON, LINCS, PE22 0HT OPEN

KINGS HEAD INN, CHURCH ROAD, FREISTON, BOSTON, LINCS, PE22 0NT OPEN - ON MARKET

WHITE HART, CHURCH ROAD, OLD LEAKE, BOSTON, LINCS, PE22 9PB OPEN

BRITANNIA INN, CHURCH STREET, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 6NW OPEN - ON MARKET

BUTCHER'S ARMS, COMMONSIDE, OLD LEAKE, BOSTON, LINCS, PE22 9PR OPEN

THE INDIAN QUEEN & THREE KINGS 4, DOLPHIN LANE, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 6EU OPEN

YE OLDE RED LION, DONINGTON ROAD, BICKER, BOSTON, LINCS, PE20 3EF OPEN

KINGS HEAD, EMERY LANE, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 8QA CLOSED

NAPOLEON INN, FISHTOFT ROAD, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 0AA OPEN

NEW CASTLE INN 36, FYDELL STREET, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 8LF

CLOSED - ON

MARKET

RED COW INN, GAYSFIELD ROAD, FISHTOFT, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 0SF OPEN

MERRIMANS, GREAT FEN ROAD, WYBERTON FEN, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 7PB OPEN - ON MARKET

GOLDEN LION INN 46, HIGH STREET, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 8SP OPEN

ROBIN HOOD, HIGH STREET, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 8TA OPEN

THE MOON UNDER WATER 2-6, HIGH STREET, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 8SH OPEN

PEACOCK INN 10, HIGH STREET, KIRTON, BOSTON, LINCS, PE20 1EG

CLOSED - ON

MARKET

COWBRIDGE INN, HORNCASTLE ROAD, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 9HX OPEN - ON MARKET

KINGS ARMS, HORNCASTLE ROAD, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 9BU OPEN

ROPERS ARMS, HORNCASTLE ROAD, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 9BU OPEN - RESTAURANT

WHEATSHEAF, HUBBERTS BRIDGE ROAD, KIRTON HOLME, BOSTON, LINCS, PE20 1TW OPEN

BOGEYS, JOHN ADAMS WAY, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 6TQ OPEN - ON MARKET



DUKE OF YORK INN, LINCOLN LANE, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 8RU OPEN

PINCUSHION INN, LONDON ROAD, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 7DD OPEN

RAILWAY INN, LONDON ROAD, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 7EW OPEN

SHIP INN, LONDON ROAD, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 8AG OPEN

BLACK BULL 23, LONDON ROAD, KIRTON, BOSTON, LINCS, PE20 1JE OPEN

COACH & HORSES 86, MAIN RIDGE EAST, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 6SY OPEN

ADMIRAL NELSON, MAIN ROAD, BENINGTON, BOSTON, LINCS, PE22 0BT OPEN

SHIP INN, MAIN ROAD, FOSDYKE, BOSTON, LINCS, PE12 6LH OPEN

THE THREE HORSESHOES, MAIN ROAD, LEVERTON, BOSTON, LINCS, PE22 0AU OPEN

BRICKLAYERS ARMS, MAIN ROAD, OLD LEAKE, BOSTON, LINCS, PE22 9LH OPEN

STUMP & CANDLE, MARKET PLACE, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 6NF OPEN - ON MARKET

THE PROSPECT 32-34, MARKET PLACE, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 6NH OPEN

THE STILL, MARKET PLACE, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 6EH CLOSED

PIG AND WHISTLE, MARKET PLACE, SWINESHEAD, BOSTON, LINCS, PE20 3LJ OPEN - ON MARKET

THE WHEATSHEAF HOTEL, MARKET PLACE, SWINESHEAD, BOSTON, LINCS, PE20 3LJ OPEN

SPIRIT OF ENDEAVOUR, MAYFLOWER PARK, MARSH LANE, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 7TA OPEN

NEW INN, PEN STREET, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 6TF OPEN

THATCHED COTTAGE RESTAURANT, POOLS ROAD, SUTTERTON, BOSTON, LINCS, PE20

2EZ OPEN - ON MARKET

BULL & DOG, SHORE ROAD, FREISTON, BOSTON, LINCS, PE22 0LZ OPEN

VOLUNTEER INN, SKIRBECK ROAD, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 6DG CLOSED

BAR 1874, SOUTH END, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 6JX OPEN

MAGNET TAVERN, SOUTH SQUARE, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 6HX OPEN

JOSEPHS SPORTS BAR SHODFRIARS HALL, SOUTH STREET, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 6HE

CLOSED - ON

MARKET

SHIP TAVERN, SOUTH STREET, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 6HE OPEN - ON MARKET

MILL INN, SPILSBY ROAD, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 9QN OPEN

BERIDGE ARMS, STATION ROAD, SUTTERTON, BOSTON, LINCS, PE20 2JH CLOSED

GREAT NORTHERN HOTEL, STATION STREET, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 8RL

CLOSED - ON

MARKET



THE BARGE HOTEL, SWINESHEAD BRIDGE, SWINESHEAD, BOSTON, LINCS, PE20 3PT OPEN

FOUR CROSS ROADS INN, SWINESHEAD ROAD, FRAMPTON FEN, BOSTON, LINCS, PE20

1SF OPEN - ON MARKET

HAMMER & PINCERS, SWINESHEAD ROAD, WYBERTON FEN, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 7JE OPEN

THE UNICORN 17, TATTERSHALL ROAD, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 9JS OPEN

THE WHITE SWAN INN, THE VILLAGE, BICKER, BOSTON, LINCS, PE20 3BX CLOSED

BALL HOUSE INN, WAINFLEET ROAD, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 9RL OPEN - ON MARKET

BURTON INN, WAINFLEET ROAD, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 9RW OPEN

THE CASTLE INN, WAINFLEET ROAD, FREISTON, BOSTON, LINCS, PE22 0PF OPEN

THE QUEEN OF SPADES, WELLINGTON ROAD, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 0NX OPEN

79, WEST STREET, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 8QZ OPEN - RESTAURANT

EAGLE HOTEL, WEST STREET, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 8RE OPEN

JOLLY CRISPIN, WEST STREET, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 8QZ OPEN

THE AXE AND CLEAVER 16, WEST STREET, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 8QH OPEN

RED COW INN, WIDE BARGATE, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 6RY OPEN - ON MARKET

THE MERRY MONK 4, WILLINGTON ROAD, KIRTON, BOSTON, LINCS, PE20 1EH

CLOSED - ON

MARKET

WITHAM TAVERN, WITHAM BANK EAST, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 9JU OPEN

CARPENTERS ARMS INN, WITHAM STREET, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 6PU OPEN

LORD NELSON P H, WOODVILLE ROAD, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 8BB CLOSED

GOODBARNS 8, WORMGATE, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 6NP OPEN

LITTLE PEACOCK, WORMGATE, BOSTON, LINCS, PE21 6NS OPEN

ANCHOR HOTEL, CHURCH ROAD, FRISKNEY, BOSTON, LINCS, PE22 8RD OPEN

RED LION, CHURCH ROAD, STICKFORD, BOSTON, LINCS, PE22 8EP OPEN

MALCOLM ARMS, FRITH BANK, BOSTON, LINCS, PE22 7BE

CLOSED - ON

MARKET

JOLLY SAILOR, HAGNABY LOCK, STICKNEY, BOSTON, LINCS, PE22 8BX OPEN

THE OLD WINDMILL INN 72, LEAGATE ROAD, GIPSEY BRIDGE, BOSTON, LINCS, PE22 7BZ CLOSED

WITHAM AND BLUES, MAIN ROAD, LANGRICK, BOSTON, LINCS, PE22 7AJ OPEN - RESTAURANT

ROYAL OAK INN, MAIN ROAD, NEW BOLINGBROKE, BOSTON, LINCS, PE22 7LD OPEN



RED LION HOTEL, MAIN ROAD, REVESBY, BOSTON, LINCS, PE22 7NU OPEN

STAR INN, MAIN ROAD, SIBSEY, BOSTON, LINCS, PE22 0TZ CLOSED

WHITE HART, MAIN ROAD, SIBSEY, BOSTON, LINCS, PE22 0TN OPEN

THE RISING SUN, MAIN ROAD, STICKNEY, BOSTON, LINCS, PE22 8AA OPEN - ON MARKET

THE ROYAL OAK, MAIN STREET, MAREHAM LE FEN, BOSTON, LINCS, PE22 7RL CLOSED

THE BARLEY MOW, SEA LANE, FRISKNEY, BOSTON, LINCS, PE22 8SD OPEN

WHEAT SHEAF INN, SPILSBY ROAD, NEW LEAKE, BOSTON, LINCS, PE22 8LE CLOSED

DUKE OF WELLINGTON, STATION ROAD, MIDVILLE, STICKNEY, BOSTON, LINCS, PE22

8HW OPEN



APPENDIX 5

Plan Indicating Density of Pubs within 0.5-1.0 mile Radius



APPENDIX 6

Brochure for Sale of Property in July 2011

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