economic talking points state of israel ministry of finance international affairs department may 6...
TRANSCRIPT
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ECONOMIC TALKING POINTS
STATE OF ISRAELMINISTRY OF FINANCE
INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS DEPARTMENT
May 6th, 2007
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Contents:
Economic Figures…….Balances……………...International comparisons and additional data……….
33
1818
2424
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Economic Figures
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Israel’s Economy:Main Characteristics
• Export Oriented Growth• Rapid Development of Technology &
High-Tech Industries• Entrepreneurial Culture • Supportive Environment for Business• Investment & R&D Incentives
4
Economic Figures
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Criteria20032004200520062007F
GDP (current prices in B$)115.4128.9129.7140.5148.5*
GDP Real Growth rate (%)1.3%4.3%5.2%5.1%5.0%
GDP per Capita (current prices, 000’$)
17.21818.719.921.8
GDP per Capita Growth rate (%)-0.5%3.0%3.2%3.2%3.2%
Exports of Goods & Services (B$)43.552.857.962.6
Imports of Goods & Services (B$)44.452.357.561.7
Unemployment Rate (%)10.7%10.4%9.0%8.4%7.4%
Inflation Rate ( CPI, end of year)-1.9%1.2%2.4%-0.1%1.0%
Current Account (% of GDP)0.5%0.4%3.3%4.9%
Source: Central Bureau of Statistics, Bank of Israel, Ministry of Finance
* Using the NIS estimate by the Ministry of Finance, Multiplied by Bank of Israel’s average US$-NIS rate for 2007.
Main Economic Indicators and forecast
5
Economic Figures
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Source: Central Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Finance
8.0
4.6
-0.9
-3.2
-0.7
-2.8
1.3
-0.3
4.3
3.0
5.2
3.4
5.1
3.2
5.0
3.2
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007F
GDP GDP per Capita
GDP and GDP per Capita (Annual % Change, in Constant Prices)
6
Economic Figures
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Source: Central Bureau of Statistics, Bank of Israel, Ministry of Finance
Major GDP Components(Annual % Change, in Constant Prices)
0.8
5.0
-6.0
-2.3
0.9
-2.3
-5.5
8.2
5.5
-2.3
0.3
18.2
3.42.7
2.95.1
4.83.3
6.44.9 4.9
2.9
9.5
5.1
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007F
Private Consumption Government ConsumptionInvestment in Fixed Assets Exports of Goods and Services
7
Economic Figures
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GDP Growth and Exports Growth(Cumulative Rate of Growth by Period)
115%
188%
62%
120%
34%
54% 54%
100%
35%
82%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 1997-2006
GDP Growth Exports Growth
Source: Central Bureau of Statistics, Bank of Israel, Ministry of Finance 8
Economic Figures
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Source: Central Bureau of Statistics
Exports of Goods and Services (B$)
9
27.5
11.8
30.2
13.3
36.6
16.1
40.1
17.8
43.3
19.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Goods Services
Economic Figures
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Exports of Goods by Region 2006 (exc. Diamonds)
Source: Central Bureau of Statistics, Bank of Israel, Ministry of Finance 10
Africa3%
Other11%
USA34%
Asia15%
European Union31%
Rest of Europe
6%
Economic Figures
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Structure of Industrial Exports
7,895
15,962 14,862 13,525 14,16617,308 18,794
21,901 23,041
7,761
5,1884,731
4,7304,836
4,277
6,3216,694
7,216
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007*
US
$ m
illi
on
s
traditional industries
hi-tech industries
35%
65%
23%24%
76%77%
27%
74%
26%27%
74%73%
26%
73%
75%
25% 25%
75%
Jan-Mar s.a. at annual rate *.
Economic Figures
11
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Imports of Goods by Region 2006 (exc. Diamonds)
Africa1%
Rest of the World14%
USA13%
Asia19%
European Union39.5%
Rest of Europe10.5%
Source: Central Bureau of Statistics, Bank of Israel, Ministry of Finance 12
Economic Figures
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Foreign Investments (B$)
Source: Ministry of Finance
1.7
4.53.1
9.6
5.2
12.3
3.7 4.1
1.73.2 3.9
5.4
2.1
9.1
4.8
9.9
14.2
24.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Direct Investments
Total Investments
13
Economic Figures
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Unemployment Rate by Quarters*(% of Total Labor Force)
9.2%
9.0%8.9% 8.9%
8.8%
7.7%
8.3%
8.8%
7.5%
7.7%
7.9%
8.1%
8.3%
8.5%
8.7%
8.9%
9.1%
9.3%
2005 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2006 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Source: CBS 14
Economic Figures
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-11
30
50
13
42
6
74
- 3
96
25
48
16
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Business Sector Public Sector
New Employed Persons in 2006 (Change in Israeli Employed Persons, in Thousands)
Source: Ministry of Finance 15
Economic Figures
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Inflation Rate (% Change in CPI, end of year)
Source: CBS, Ministry of Finance
1.3%
0.0%
1.4%
6.5%
-1.9%
1.2%
2.4%
-0.1%
1.0%
-2.00%
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007F
16
Economic Figures
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CriteriaEstimate for 2007
Real GDP Growth5.0%
Business GDP Growth5.6%
Exports Growth5.1%
Private Consumption Growth4.9%
Government Consumption Growth2.9%
Investment in Fixed Assets Growth9.5%
Source: Ministry of Finance
Estimated Growth of Main GDP Components 2007
17
Economic Figures
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Balances
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Source: Ministry of Finance, April 2007
Budget Deficit (% of GDP)
3.2%
0.7%
4.2%
3.6%
5.4%
3.7%
1.9%
0.9%
2.9%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
19
Budget proposal
Balances
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Current Account (% of GDP)
Source: Bank of Israel
-1.3% -0.6%
1.2%
2.3%
3.3%
4.9%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
20
Balances
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2.8%0.1%
-2.3%
-5.7%
-8.6%
-16.3%
-22.6%-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Net Foreign Debt (% of GDP)
Source: Ministry of Finance 21
Balances
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Source: Ministry of Finance
General Government Expenditure (% of GDP)
22
52.1%
51.4%
50.7%
50.0%
48.4%
51.1%
52.2%
51.5%
49.2%
47.4%
46.8%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Balances
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Source: Ministry of Finance
Gross Tax Burden (% of GDP)
37.80%
36.80%
37.00%
38.1%38.2%
37.5%
36.6%36.7%
36.8%
37.2%
36.00%
37.00%
38.00%
39.00%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
23
Balances
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International comparisons and additional data
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Central Bank Interest Rates Israel vs. U.S.A (%)
Source: Bank of Israel, Federal Reserve
Bank of Israel Rate
Federal Reserve Rate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
20
04
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11
12
20
05
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11
12
20
06
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11
12
20
07
2 3 4 5
25
Additional data
Currently:
3.75%
Currently:
5.25%
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Nasdaq Index & Tel Aviv 100 (monthly average)
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Jan 2003 Jul 2003 Jan 2004 Jul 2004 Jan 2005 Jul 2005 Jan 2006 Jul 2006 Jan 2007
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000Nasdaq Index (left scale)
Tel Aviv 100 (right scale)
Additional data
26
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Source: Credit Rating Agencies, Accountant General
Israel’s Credit Rating 1992-2007
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Moody's A2 Stable S&P A- Stable Fitch A- Stable
A1/A+
A2/A
A3/A-
Baa1/BBB+
Baa2/BBB
Baa3 /BBB-
27
Additional data
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Source: World Economic Forum, GCI 2006
Global Competitiveness Index, 2006Israel Ranks 15 Out of 125 Countries (2005 Rank was 23)
5958
4847
3428
2421
1815
108
64
1
42
28
Additional data
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Source: World Economic Forum, GCI 2006
Business Competitiveness Index, 2006 Israel Ranks 19 Out of 121 Countries (2005 Rank was 22)
6455
49
46
30
2725
2219
1612
85
21
36
29
Additional data
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Network Readyness score, 2006
Source: World Economic Forum, GCI 2006
Turkey
Greece
Italy
Spain
Portugal
France
Israel
Germany
Japan
Canada
United Kingdom
United States
Switzerland
Denmark 5.71) 1(
5.58) 5(
5.54) 7(
5.45) 9(
5.35) 11(
5.27) 14(
5.22) 16(
5.14) 18(
4.99) 23(4.48) 28(
4.35) 32(
4.19) 38(
3.98) 48(
3.86) 52(
30
Additional data
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Israel’s Free Trade Agreements
USA (1985)
EFTA (1992)
Jordan (1995): Bilateral Trade Agreement
Canada (1997)
Turkey (1997)
Mexico (1999)
Romania (2000)
European Union – Association Agreement 2000
Bulgaria (2002)31
Additional data
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Avoidance of Double Taxation Agreements
Belarus
Belgium
Brazil
Bulgaria
Canada
China
Czech republic
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
India
Jamaica
Japan
Luxembourg
Mexico
Norway
Philippines
Poland
Romania
Russia
Singapore
Slovakia
South Africa
South Korea
Spain
Sweden
Thailand
The Netherlands
Turkey
USA
32
Additional data
Also:
Austria, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Switzerland, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Uzbekistan.
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Cooperation in Industrial R&D Agreements
Belgium
Canada
China
France
Hong Kong
Italy
Netherlands
Portugal
Spain
UK
USA
Singapore
Ireland
Sweden
Finland
Germany
IndiaAustria
Korea
33
Additional data
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Protection of Investment Agreements
Albania
Argentina
Armenia
Belarus
Bulgaria
Croatia
Cyprus
Czech Republic
El-Salvador
Estonia
Georgia
Germany
Hungary
India
Kazakhstan
Korea
34
Additional data
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Protection of Investment Agreements (con)
Turkmenistan
Ukraine
Uruguay
Uzbekistan
QIZ Agreement
Egypt
Jordan
Latvia
Lithuania
Moldova
Poland
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Thailand
Turkey35
Additional data
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International Organization* Memberships:
BIS | BSEC (observer) | CE (observer)
CERN (observer) | EBRD | FAO | IADB | IAEA
IBRD | ICAO | ICC | ICCt (signatory) | ICFTU
IDA | IFAD | IFC | IFRCS (observer) | ILO | IMF
IMO | Interpol | IOC | IOM | ISO | ITU | OAS (observer)
OPCW (signatory) | OSCE (partner) | PCA | UN
UNCTAD | UNECE | UNEP | UNESCO | UNHCR
UNIDO | UPU | WB | WCO | WFP | WHO | WIPO | WMO
WToO | WTrO | WTO | MIGA
* Economic Organizations 36
Additional data
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Relevant Sites
Government Institutes:
Bank of Israel
Central Bureau of Statistics
Israeli Government Portal
Ministry of Finance
Israel Securities Authority
Economic News:
“The Marker”
“Globes”
32
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We welcome your feedback:
Contact:
Uri Geva
International Affairs Department
Ministry of Finance, Jerusalem, Israel