economic overview byu management society april 30, 2015 · economic overview byu management society...

Economic Overview BYU Management Society

April 30, 2015

Utah is One of the Fastest Growing

States in the Country Percent Change in Population for States: 2012 to 2013

U.S. Rate = 0.7%

Source: U.S Census Bureau

Population Loss

NM

0.1%

UT

1.6%

AZ

1.2%

CA

0.9%

NV

1.3%

OR

0.8%

TX

1.5%

OK

0.9%

CO

1.5%

WA

1.1%

ID

1.0%

MT

1.0%

WY

1.0%

ND

3.1%

SD

1.3%

MN

0.8%

NE

0.7%

KS

0.3%

IA

0.5%

MO

0.3%

AR

0.3%

LA

0.5%

WI

0.3%

IL

0.1% IN

0.5%

OH

0.2%

FL

1.2%

TN 0.6%

KY 0.4%

MS

0.2% AL

0.3%

GA

0.8%

SC

1.1%

NC 1.0%

VA

0.9%

WV

-0.1%

PA

0.1%

NY

0.4%

ME

-0.01%

AK

0.7%

HI

1.0%

MA

0.7%

VT

0.1%

NH

0.1%

RI

0.1%

CT

0.1%

NJ

0.4%

DE

0.9%

MD

0.7%

MI

0.1%

.075% to 1.10%

0.5% to 0.9%

DC

2.1%

1.15% or more

0% to 0.4%

KS

0.3%

National Economic Conditions



U.S. Rate = 0.7%


Population Loss

NM

0.1%

UT

1.6%

AZ

1.2%

CA

0.9%

NV

1.3%

OR

0.8%

TX

1.5%

OK

0.9%

CO

1.5%

WA

1.1%

ID

1.0%

MT

1.0%

WY

1.0%

ND

3.1%

SD

1.3%

MN

0.8%

NE

0.7%

KS

0.3%

IA

0.5%

MO

0.3%

AR

0.3%

LA

0.5%

WI

0.3%

IL

0.1% IN

0.5%

OH

0.2%

FL

1.2%

TN 0.6%

KY 0.4%

MS

0.2% AL

0.3%

GA

0.8%

SC

1.1%

NC 1.0%

VA

0.9%

WV

-0.1%

PA

0.1%

NY

0.4%

ME

-0.01%

AK

0.7%

HI

1.0%

MA

0.7%

VT

0.1%

NH

0.1%

RI

0.1%

CT

0.1%

NJ

0.4%

DE

0.9%

MD

0.7%

MI

0.1%

.075% to 1.10%

0.5% to 0.9%

DC

2.1%

1.15% or more

0% to 0.4%

KS

0.3%

Consumption Drives Growth

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

-5%

0%

5%

2012 2013 2014

Fixed InvestmentInventoriesNet ExportsGovernmentPersonal Consumption

Co

ntr

ibu

tio

n t

o G

DP

Gro

wth

2015

Total GDP Growth

National Job Growth

-900

-700

-500

-300

-100

100

300

500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

8.7 Million Jobs Lost

11 Million

Jobs Recovered

Pa

yro

ll C

han

ge

00

0’s

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

10 Year Treasury Bill

30 Year Fixed Mortgage

10 Year Treasury Note compared to 30 Year Mortgage Rate

Source: U.S. Federal Reserve

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

Effective Fed Rate

30 Year Fixed Mortgage

CPI Year Over Change Rate - Unadjusted

30 Year Mortgage Rate, Fed Rate and CPI

$175,000

$200,000

$225,000

$250,000

$275,000

$300,000

$325,000

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

Effective Fed Funds Rate

U.S. Median Home SalesPrice

U.S. Median New Home Sales Price and Effective Federal Funds Rate

Source: U.S. Median New Home Sales from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Data. Fed Fund Rate from U.S. Federal Reserve.



U.S. Rate = 0.7%


Population Loss

NM

0.1%

UT

1.6%

AZ

1.2%

CA

0.9%

NV

1.3%

OR

0.8%

TX

1.5%

OK

0.9%

CO

1.5%

WA

1.1%

ID

1.0%

MT

1.0%

WY

1.0%

ND

3.1%

SD

1.3%

MN

0.8%

NE

0.7%

KS

0.3%

IA

0.5%

MO

0.3%

AR

0.3%

LA

0.5%

WI

0.3%

IL

0.1% IN

0.5%

OH

0.2%

FL

1.2%

TN 0.6%

KY 0.4%

MS

0.2% AL

0.3%

GA

0.8%

SC

1.1%

NC 1.0%

VA

0.9%

WV

-0.1%

PA

0.1%

NY

0.4%

ME

-0.01%

AK

0.7%

HI

1.0%

MA

0.7%

VT

0.1%

NH

0.1%

RI

0.1%

CT

0.1%

NJ

0.4%

DE

0.9%

MD

0.7%

MI

0.1%

.075% to 1.10%

0.5% to 0.9%

DC

2.1%

1.15% or more

0% to 0.4%

KS

0.3%

Utah Economic Conditions

Utah Population Seventh Fastest Growing in U.S.

Percent Change: 2013 to 2014 U.S. Rate = 0.7%


Population Loss

0.7% to 0.9% (at or above U.S. rate)

0.4% to 0.6%

1.0% or more

0.0% to 0.3%

NM

-0.1%

UT

1.4%

AZ

1.5%

CA

1.0%

NV

1.7%

OR

1.1%

TX

1.7%

OK

0.6%

CO

1.6%

WA

1.3%

ID

1.3%

MT

0.9%

WY

0.2%

ND

2.2%

SD

0.9%

MN

0.6%

NE

0.7%

KS

0.3%

IA

0.5%

MO

0.3%

AR

0.3%

LA

0.4%

WI

0.3%

IL

-0.1% IN

0.4%

OH

0.2%

FL

1.5%

TN 0.8%

KY 0.3%

MS

0.1% AL

0.3%

GA

1.0%

SC

1.3%

NC 1.0%

VA

0.7%

WV

-0.2%

PA

0.0%

NY

0.3%

ME

0.1%

AK

-0.1%

HI

0.8%

MA

0.5%

VT

0.0%

NH

0.3%

RI

0.2%

CT

-0.1%

NJ

0.3%

DE

1.1%

MD

0.6%

MI

0.1%

DC

1.5%

KS

0.3%

Utah Population Growth Rates

By County 2013 to 2014

State Average = 1.4%

Increase of 1.0% to 1.4%


Increase of 2.0% or Greater


Box Elder

1.3%

Cache

0.9% Rich

0.7%

Weber 0.9%

Tooele

1.4%

Salt Lake

1.0%

Morgan

4.0%

Summit

1.7%

Daggett -1.2%

Utah

1.6%

Wasatch

4.3% Duchesne

1.4% Uintah

3.3%

Juab

1.5%

Sanpete

0.8%

Carbon

-1.3%

Emery

-0.8% Grand

0.7%

Millard

-0.2%

Piute

-2.6%

Garfield

-0.8%

Sevier

-0.3%

Wayne

-0.3%

San Juan

1.7%

Iron

1.2%

Beaver

0.0%

Washington

2.9% Kane

0.2%

Davis 2.1%

Population Loss

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Source: Utah Population Estimates Committee, U.S. Census Bureau, State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group

Utah Components of Population Change

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

19

50

19

55

19

60

19

65

19

70

19

75

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

Population Change Natural Increase Net Migration

20

14

Utah Employment

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Note: January 2015 (prediction)

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,6001

99

5

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

Th

ou

sa

nd

s o

f J

ob

s

Utah Employment Growth 1940 - 2015

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

194

0

195

0

196

0

197

0

198

0

199

0

200

0

201

0

20

14

e

20

15

f

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services e = estimate f = forecast

1950-2015 Average Rate

3.1%

Utah Job Growth Greater than National Average

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

Year

U.S. Utah

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Employment Growth by State Percent Change in Employment for States: March 2014 to March 2015

U.S. Rate = 2.3%

Note: Seasonally Adjusted


NM

1.4%

UT

3.9%

AZ

2.6%

CA

3.1%

NV

2.8%

OR

3.3%

TX

2.9%

OK

0.8%

CO

2.8%

WA

3.4%

ID

3.2%

MT

0.8%

WY

1.4%

ND

2.9%

SD

1.7%

MN

1.8%

NE

1.4%

KS

1.1%

IA

1.7%

MO

1.3%

AR

1.9%

LA

0.7%

WI

1.9%

IL

1.2% IN

1.7%

OH

1.5%

FL

3.7%

TN 1.8%

KY 1.9%

MS

0.6% AL

1.4%

GA

3.1%

SC

2.5%

NC 2.8%

VA

0.8%

WV

-0.5%

PA

0.9%

NY

1.6%

ME

0.4%

AK

0.2%

HI

0.9%

MA

1.8%

VT

1.4%

NH

1.2%

RI

1.0%

CT

1.6%

NJ

1.2%

DE

2.1%

MD

1.4%

MI

2.1%

DC

1.2%

0.9% and below

2.3% to 3.0% (at or above the U.S. rate)

1.5% to 2.2%

3.1% or more

1.0% to 1.4%

Utah Employment Change Rates

By County March 2014 to March 2015

State Rate = 4.0%

1.6% to 2.9%

0.0% to 1.5%

4.0% or more

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, Not seasonally adjusted

3.0% to 3.9%

Below 0.0%

Box Elder

1.3%

Cache

2.9% Rich

4.0%

Weber 2.9%

Tooele

0.1%

Salt Lake

2.7%

Morgan

4.1% Daggett 3.7%

Utah

5.3%

Wasatch

2.6% Duchesne

-4.7% Uintah

-3.6%

Juab

2.3%

Sanpete

3.5%

Carbon

1.5%

Emery

-2.2% Grand

4.1%

Millard

2.3%

Piute

2.3%

Garfield

-0.8%

Sevier

1.3%

Wayne

-0.8%

San Juan

-1.6%

Iron

1.0%

Beaver

1.6%

Washington

5.2%

Kane

3.1%

Davis 3.6%

Summit

0.8%

UT Industries - Employment Gains

1.5%

0.0%

6.8%

3.7%

4.5%

4.4%

4.2%

5.6%

2.9%

6.4%

-2.5%

-4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%

Government

Other Services

Leisure & Hospitality

Ed. & Health Serv.

Prof. & Bus. Serv.

Financial Activity

Information

Trade, Trans., Utilities

Manufacturing

Construction

Ntl. Res. & Mining


Percent Change in Utah Employment by Industry: March 2014 to March 2015

Total: 4.0%

UT Industries Seeing Growth


Total Change in Utah Employment by Industry: March 2014 to March 2015

3,400

0

8,700

6,500

8,100

3,200

1,400

13,800

3,500

4,700

-300

-2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000

Government

Other Services

Leisure & Hospitality

Ed. & Health Serv.

Prof. & Bus. Serv.

Financial Activity

Information

Trade, Trans., Utilities

Manufacturing

Construction

Ntl. Res. & MiningTotal: 53,000

Unemployment Rates by State March 2015 U.S. Rate = 5.5% NH

3.9%

NM

6.1%

UT

3.4%

AZ

6.2%

CA

6.5%

NV

7.1%

OR

5.4%

TX

4.2%

OK

3.9%

CO

4.2%

WA

5.9%

ID

3.8%

MT

4.1%

WY

4.1%

ND

3.1%

SD

3.5%

MN

3.7%

NE

2.6%

KS

4.2%

IA

4.0%

MO

5.6%

AR

5.6%

LA

6.6%

WI

4.6%

IL

6.0% IN

5.8%

OH

5.1%

FL

5.7%

TN 6.3%

KY 5.1%

MS

6.8% AL

5.7%

GA

6.3%

SC

6.7%

NC 5.4%

VA

4.8%

WV

6.6%

PA

5.3%

NY

5.7%

ME

4.8%

AK

6.5%

HI

4.1%

MA

4.8%

VT

3.8%

RI

6.3%

CT

6.4%

NJ

6.5%

DE

4.6%

MD

5.4%

MI

5.6%

DC

7.7%

6.6% or more

4.2% to 5.4%


4.1% or less

6.3% to 6.5%



Utah vs. U.S. Unemployment Rates

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Utah Department of Workforce Services

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

U.S. Utah

Utah Unemployment

Rates By County

March 2015

State Rate = 3.4%


3.5% to 4.1%

4.2% to 5.8%

3.1% or lower

3.2% to 3.4%

5.9% or greater

Box Elder

3.6%

Cache

2.7%

Rich

3.0%

Tooele

4.0%

Morgan

2.8%

Summit

3.1%

Utah

3.0%

Wasatch

3.2% Duchesne

5.9% Uintah

5.2%

Juab

3.6%

Sanpete

3.9%

Carbon

4.8%

Emery

4.6% Grand

5.8%

Millard

3.3%

Piute

6.4%

Garfield

8.7%

Sevier

4.1%

Wayne

9.0%

San Juan

6.9%

Iron

4.2%

Beaver

3.3%

Washington

3.9%

Kane

4.1%

Daggett 4.1%

Davis 3.2%

Salt Lake

3.2%

Weber 3.9%

Labor Force Participation Rate

60%

62%

64%

66%

68%

70%

72%

74%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Utah US

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment status of the civilian non-institutional population, seasonally adjusted.

Growth in Utah Average Annual Pay


1.6%

2.6%

3.2%

2.3%

3.7%

4.0%

5.3%

1.2%

2.4%

3.7%

4.1%

4.8%

4.4%

3.8%

4.8%

2.8%

1.6%1.6%

3.5%3.6%

5.4%5.5%

2.6%

1.6%1.6%

2.2%2.4%

1.0%

1.6%

3.1%

2.4%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

f

20

16

f

e = estimate f = forecast

Average Growth

3.0%

Consumer Attitude Index Utah vs. United States

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

Ap

r 2

01

4

Ma

y 2

014

Ju

n 2

014

Ju

l 2

014

Au

g 2

01

4

Sep

201

4

Oct

20

14

No

v 2

01

4

De

c 2

014

Jan

201

5

Fe

b 2

015

Ma

r 20

15

Ap

r 2

01

5

Zions Bank Utah Consumer

Attitude Index

United States Consumer

Confidence Index

Source: U.S. CCI from The Conference Board and Utah CAI from Cicero Group

Consumer Price Index Wasatch Front vs. United States

Year Over Year Change

Source: U.S. CPI from National Bureau of Labor Statistics and Wasatch Front CPI from Cicero Group

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

Jul 2

01

1

Oct

20

11

Jan

20

12

Ap

r 2

01

2

Jul 2

01

2

Oct

20

12

Jan

20

13

Ap

r 2

01

3

Jul 2

01

3

Oct

20

13

Jan

20

14

Ap

r 2

01

4

Jul 2

01

4

Oct

20

14

Jan

20

15

United States CPI

Zions Bank Wasatch Front CPI

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Jan

-12

Ma

r-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Ju

l-12

Sep

-12

No

v-1

2

Jan

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-13

Sep

-13

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Sep

-14

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-1

5

U.S. Rocky Mountain Region

Gas Prices D

olla

rs p

er

Ga

llo

n

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Weekly All Grades Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices

Source: National Association of Realtors and Economy.com

U.S. vs. UT Median Existing Home Prices

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

$220

$240

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Utah United States

Utah Residential Construction Activity

Source: University of Utah, David Eccles School of Business, Bureau of Economic and Business Research

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

197

0

197

5

198

0

198

5

199

0

199

5

200

0

200

5

201

0

201

5f

Single-Family Units Multifamily Total

Value of New Construction

Source: University of Utah, David Eccles School of Business, Bureau of Economic and Business Research

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015f

Mil

lio

ns

Residential Nonresidential Renovations Total

f = forecast

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency and Economy.com

Foreclosure Rates Dropping

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

United States Utah Nevada

Second Quarter 2014 U.S. 2.49%, Utah 1.06%

Utah Below National Average Foreclosure Rates


Source: Moody’s Economy.com

NM

2.92%

UT

1.06%

AZ

0.85%

CA

1.10%

NV

3.33%

OR

2.74%

TX

1.01%

CO

0.86%

WA

2.04%

ID

1.32%

MT

0.87%

WY

0.52%

ND

0.68%

SD

0.87%

MN

0.94%

NE

0.72%

KS

1.50%

IA

1.63%

MO

1.08%

WI

1.71%

IL

3.68% IN

2.54%

OH

2.88%

FL

6.91%

KY 2.24%

AL

1.43%

GA

1.46%

SC

2.41%

NC 1.44%

VA

0.91%

WV

1.12%

PA

2.81%

NY

5.89%

ME

4.51%

AK

0.89%

HI

3.88

%

MA

1.95% VT

2.96%

NH

1.35%

RI

2.80% CT

3.96%

NJ

8.10%

DE

2.95%

MD

3.24%

MI

1.22%

DC

2.59%

4.00% or more

1.00% to 1.48%

1.49% to 2.48%

.99% or lower

2.49% to 3.99% (at or above national average)

AR

1.69

%

LA

2.11%

MS

1.73%

TN

1.25% OK

2.40%

National Construction Employment Year Over Year Growth

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4


Utah Construction Employment Year over Year growth

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4




U.S. Rate = 0.7%


Population Loss

NM

0.1%

UT

1.6%

AZ

1.2%

CA

0.9%

NV

1.3%

OR

0.8%

TX

1.5%

OK

0.9%

CO

1.5%

WA

1.1%

ID

1.0%

MT

1.0%

WY

1.0%

ND

3.1%

SD

1.3%

MN

0.8%

NE

0.7%

KS

0.3%

IA

0.5%

MO

0.3%

AR

0.3%

LA

0.5%

WI

0.3%

IL

0.1% IN

0.5%

OH

0.2%

FL

1.2%

TN 0.6%

KY 0.4%

MS

0.2% AL

0.3%

GA

0.8%

SC

1.1%

NC 1.0%

VA

0.9%

WV

-0.1%

PA

0.1%

NY

0.4%

ME

-0.01%

AK

0.7%

HI

1.0%

MA

0.7%

VT

0.1%

NH

0.1%

RI

0.1%

CT

0.1%

NJ

0.4%

DE

0.9%

MD

0.7%

MI

0.1%

.075% to 1.10%

0.5% to 0.9%

DC

2.1%

1.15% or more

0% to 0.4%

KS

0.3%

Utah Economic Environment

Utah Has One of Most Diverse Economies in Nation

95.8

96.5

96.6

96.7

96.9

97.2

97.5

97.5

97.6

98.4

93.0 94.0 95.0 96.0 97.0 98.0 99.0 100.0

Minnesota

Nebraska

Maine

Kansas

Georgia

Arizona

Utah

Illinois

North Carolina

Missouri

Source: DWS - Workforce Research and Analysis Division

Ten Most Diversified Economies in the Country 2012

Utah Poverty Rate Among Lowest in Nation

2013 U.S. Rate = 14.5%, 2013 Utah Rate = 10.1%

NM

22.9%

UT

10.1%

AZ

22.4%

CA

15.9%

NV

17.4%

OR

15.2%

TX

18.1%

OK

14.3%

CO

11.9%

WA

11.8%

ID

13.4%

MT

13.8%

WY

12.6%

ND

10.0%

SD

9.7%

MN

12.7%

NE

11.6%

KS

13.4%

IA

11.3%

MO

13.8%

AR

18.8%

LA

18.5%

WI

10.8%

IL

13.4% IN

12.3%

OH

13.3%

FL

15.7%

TN 18.2%

KY 21.3%

MS

22.5%

AL

18.2%

GA

17.5%

SC

16.3%

NC 18.3%

VA

11.1%

WV

17.3%

PA

13.0%

NY

15.6%

ME

13.5%

AK

10.3%

HI

10.8%

MA

13.2

%

VT

8.5%

NH

9.5%

RI

13.9%

CT

11.2%

NJ

11.3%

DE

15.0%

MD

10.9%

MI

14.6%

DC

20.1%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 CPS data

10.6% to 12.0%

12.1% to 14.4%

10.5% or less


18.1% or more

Utah Median Household Income Higher than Nation

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 Current Population Survey

2013 U.S. Rate = $51,939, 2013 Utah Rate = $62,967

$56,000 to $60,999

$51,900 to $55,999 (at or above the U.S. Rate)

$61,000 or more

$45,000 to $51,899

$44,999 or less

NM

$42,127

UT

$62,967

AZ

$50,602

CA

$57,528

NV

$45,369

OR

$56,307

TX

$53,027

OK

$43,777

CO

$63,371

WA

$60,106

ID

$51,767

MT

$44,132

WY

$55,700

ND

$52,888

SD

$54,453

MN

$60,907

NE

$53774

KS

$41,485

IA

$54,855

MO

$50,311

AR

$39,919

LA

$39,622

WI

$55,258

IL

$57,196 IN

$50,553

OH

$46,398

FL

$47,886

TN

$42,499

KY $42,158

MS

$40,850 AL

$41,381

GA

$47,439

SC

$43,749

NC

$41,208

VA

$67,620

WV

$40,241

PA

$53,952

NY

$53,843

AK

$61,137

HI

$61,408

MA

$62,963 VT

$54,842

NH

$71,322

RI

$57,812 CT

$67,781

NJ

$61,782 DE

$52,219

MD

$65,262

MI

$48,801

DC

$60,675

ME

$50,121


2,981 3,134 3,221 3,506

4,542 4,119

4,731

6,067 6,801

7,815

10,306 10,337

13,809

18,968 19,256

16,111

12,266 13,017

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f

Millio

ns

of

Do

lla

rs

Utah Net International Exports


Utah Exports: With and Without Gold


0

5

10

15

20

25

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Billi

on

s o

f D

oll

ars

Total Exports Primary Metals (Gold) All Other Exports

Hong Kong 39%

United Kingdom 29%

Thailand 10%

India 7%

Other 15%

Primary Metals

Source: International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce

2014 Top Purchasing Countries by Export Industry

Taiwan 24%

Singapore 19%

China 18%

Japan 7%

Other 32%

Computers and Electronics



Canada 21%

South Korea 13%

Japan 9%

Netherlands 6%

Other 51%

Chemicals



Japan 10%

South Korea 10%

Mexico 8%

Canada 8%

Other 64%

Food



Canada 29%

Mexico 27%

Germany 6%

Italy 5%

Other 33%

Transportation Equipment



Netherlands 17%

Japan 13%

China 6%

Canada 12%

Other 52%

Miscellaneous Manufactures



0.7%

1.1% 1.1%

1.4%

0.9% 0.8%

1.0%

0.3%

1.5%

1.1%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

UnitedStates

MountainStates

Arizona Colorado Idaho Montana Nevada NewMexico

Utah Wyoming

Average Population

Growth Rate 1.0%


Three-Year Average Annual Population Growth Rate

2011-2013

2.0%

2.4% 2.3%

2.8%

1.4%

2.9%

1.3% 1.3%

3.9%

2.0%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

UnitedStates

MountainStates


Utah Wyoming

Average Annual GDP Growth Rate

2.2%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Average Annual GDP Growth Rate 2010-2013

1.6%

1.9% 1.8%

2.3%

1.9%

1.6% 1.7%

0.3%

2.9%

1.0%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

UnitedStates

MountainStates


Utah Wyoming

Average Employment Growth Rate

1.7%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Average Annual Employment Growth Rate

2010-2013

Utah Economic Indicators 2014 - 2016

Source: State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group

4.9

2.0

5.1

3.2

2.6

1.5

5.3

5.3

5.2

3.4

2.8

1.5

4.6

8.9

4.7

3.7

2.9

1.4

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0

Retail Sales

Home Prices

Personal Income

Unemployment Rate

Nonfarm Employment

Population

2014e 2015f 2016f


Robert Spendlove

Economic and Public Policy Officer

Email:

[email protected]

Phone: 801-560-5394 Presentations are offered for informational purposes only and should not be construed as tax, legal, financial or business advice. Please contact a professional about your specific needs and advice. Presentations may contain

trademarks or trade names owned by parties who are not affiliated with Zions Bank. Use of such marks does not imply any sponsorship by or affiliation with third parties, and Zions Bank does not claim any ownership of or make

representations about products and services offered under or associated with such marks.

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