economic overview agc maine annual meeting january 22, 2020 · source: u.s. census bureau, 2018...
TRANSCRIPT
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
AGC MAINE ANNUAL MEETINGJANUARY 22, 2020
ANGELA HALLOWELL
ECONOMIC ANALYST
DEPT. OF ADMINISTRATIVE AND FINANCIAL
SERVICES
MAINE: A DEMOGRAPHIC SNAPSHOT
2019 Population Estimate: 1,344,212
42nd largest in US
2010 – 2019 Population Change: +1.2%
40th in US (ahead of MI, NJ, PA, RI, NY, MS, CT, VT, IL, WV)
2018 Median age: 44.9 years
Oldest in US
94.3% White, Non-Hispanic
Highest percentage in US
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; State Economist population projections
2019 estimate: 1,344,212
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2019 2021 2026 2031 2036
Total Population, Maine
Baby Boomers in 2016
(52-70)
Baby Boomers in 2026
(62-80)
Sources: State Economist population projections (Maine) and U.S. Census Bureau population projections (U.S.)
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Percent Change in Population by Age, 2016-2026
Maine U.S.
Source: Maine Department of Labor, Employment Outlook to 2026; https://cwri1.blogspot.com/2018/07/employment-
outlookto-2026.html
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program
POPULATION CHANGE THROUGH THE DECADE
+809+648 -199
+1387-928
+2026
+5675
+3341
+5155
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Domestic Migration
International Migration
Deaths
Births
Total Change
Components of Population Change in the last Decade, Maine
WHERE ARE PEOPLE MOVING TO/FROM?
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 American Community Survey 1-year estimates
Moved to Maine from: Moved from Maine to:
Massachusetts 5,775 New Hampshire 4,016
New Hampshire 4,731 Massachusetts 3,188
New York 2,909 Florida 2,783
Texas 2,386 Connecticut 1,342
Florida 2,082 California 1,294
Connecticut 1,734 North Carolina 1,235
Pennsylvania 1,393 Maryland 990
Michigan 1,320 Pennsylvania 916
North Carolina 1,049 Colorado 912
Vermont 997 Texas 815
2018 State-to-State Migration Patterns
WHO ARE THE PEOPLE MOVING TO MAINE?
Age:
▪ 18-19: net gain of 864 (annual migration rate 2.7%)
▪ 30-34, 40-44: +1,115/1,056 (1.4%)
▪ 1-4: +1,005 (2%)
Educational attainment:
▪ Bachelor’s Degree: net gain of 2,152
▪ Graduate or Professional Degree: +2,308
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 American Community Survey 1-year estimates
618.0 617.5
596.7
593.4594.9
598.5
602.1
605.6
611.2
618.5
624.0
628.7
633.8
636.2 636.2 636.2 636.2
570
580
590
600
610
620
630
640
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Total Nonfarm Employment (in thousands)
History and CEFC forecast
Sources: Maine Department of Labor and Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission report, November 1, 2019
New record high
(2018)
Pre-recession peak
(2007)
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; CEFC report, Nov. 1, 2019
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Percent Change in Real Personal Income, Maine
Personal income (millions of
dollars)
Wages and salaries (millions of
dollars)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
Agriculture,
forestry, fishing
and hunting
Construction Manufacturing Trade Transportation
and warehousing
Information Finance,
insurance, real
estate, rental, and
leasing
Professional and
business services
Educational
services, health
care, and social
assistance
Arts,
entertainment,
recreation,
accommodation,
and food services
Government and
government
enterprises
Maine Real GDP by Industry, 1997-2018 (in millions of chained 2012 dollars)
Sources: Moody’s Analytics and IHS, January 2020
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
Do
lla
rs P
er
Barr
el
Petroleum Crude Oil Price: Brent
Historical prices Moody's forecast
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
October November December January February March
Pri
ce p
er
gallo
nMaine No. 2 Heating Oil Residential Price
Winter 2015-2016 Winter 2016-2017 Winter 2017-2018
Winter 2018-2019 Winter 2019-2020
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Jan 06, 2020, $2.65
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
Jan-1
0
Apr-
10
Jul-10
Oct
-10
Jan-1
1
Apr-
11
Jul-11
Oct
-11
Jan-1
2
Apr-
12
Jul-12
Oct
-12
Jan-1
3
Apr-
13
Jul-13
Oct
-13
Jan-1
4
Apr-
14
Jul-14
Oct
-14
Jan-1
5
Apr-
15
Jul-15
Oct
-15
Jan-1
6
Apr-
16
Jul-16
Oct
-16
Jan-1
7
Apr-
17
Jul-17
Oct
-17
Jan-1
8
Apr-
18
Jul-18
Oct
-18
Jan-1
9
Apr-
19
Jul-19
Oct
-19
Jan-2
0
Weekly New England Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per
Gallon)
Sources: University of Michigan; National Federation of Independent Businesses
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Consumer Sentiment and Small Business Optimism Indexes
Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment (1966=100) NFIB Small Business Optimism (1986=100)
CLOSING THOUGHTS
Maine’s demographics are a limiting factor for employment
and economic growth, but there have been some positive
signs lately
The economy will see steady but slower growth in 2020,
though we are likely closer to the next recession than the
last one
KEEP AN EYE ON…
Election year may lead to policy uncertainty for businesses
Census 2020
March 12-20 Households will begin to receive invitations to respond via phone, mail,
and online
The Census Bureau is hiring!
CONTACT INFORMATION
Angela HallowellEconomic Analyst
Dept. of Administrative and Financial Services
(207) 624-7348