economic outlook national, regional, and local
TRANSCRIPT
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Economic OutlookNational, Regional, and Local
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FY 2010 Council Retreat
Data Sources
City of AlexandriaCity of Alexandria
• GMU Center for Regional Analysis
• Delta Associates
• Prudential, S&P
• Travel Economics
• Bureau of Economic Analysis
• calculatedrisk.blogspot.com
• Federal Reserve Board
• Jones Lang LaSalle
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National Economic Outlook
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FY 2010 Council Retreat
Data Sources
City of AlexandriaCity of Alexandria
As of July 2008, Case-Shiller values hadfallen to Summer ’04
levels.
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FY 2010 Council Retreat
MEW, Billions of Dollars, Quarterly, Kennedy‐Greenspan
City of AlexandriaCity of Alexandria
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FY 2010 Council Retreat
Adjustable Rate Mortgage Reset Schedule
City of AlexandriaCity of Alexandria
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FY 2010 Council Retreat
Consumer Confidence SurveyUniversity of Michigan 1990‐2008
City of AlexandriaCity of Alexandria
57.5
0
20
40
60
80
100
12019
90q1
1991
q1
1992
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1993
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1994
q1
1995
q1
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Surv
ey V
alue
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FY 2010 Council Retreat
GDP Change by Quarter
City of AlexandriaCity of Alexandria
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
1972
q1
1973
q4
1975
q3
1977
q2
1979
q1
1980
q4
1982
q3
1984
q2
1986
q1
1987
q4
1989
q3
1991
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1993
q1
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q4
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q3
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2000
q1
2001
q4
2003
q3
2005
q2
2007
q1
Perc
ent C
hang
e
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Regional Economic Outlook
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FY 2010 Council Retreat
Office Vacancy Rates
City of AlexandriaCity of Alexandria
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Sep-05
Dec-05
Mar-06
Jun-0
6
Sep-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-0
7
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-0
8Sep
-08
Quarter
Perc
enta
ge
Northern Virginia
Washington DC Metropolitan
Alexandria
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FY 2010 Council Retreat
Annual Changes in Jobs 1991‐2007Washington Metro
City of AlexandriaCity of Alexandria
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FY 2010 Council Retreat
Annual Job Change Northern Virginia
City of AlexandriaCity of Alexandria
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FY 2010 Council Retreat
Federal Spending by Type 1983‐2007
City of AlexandriaCity of Alexandria
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FY 2010 Council Retreat
Average Sales Price Percent ChangeNorthern Virginia All Housing Types
City of AlexandriaCity of Alexandria
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Alexandria Economic Outlook
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FY 2010 Council Retreat
Alexandria Economic Positives
City of AlexandriaCity of Alexandria
• Location, Location, Location
• Creative Class Economy
• Quality of Life
• Low Unemployment
• High Avg. Incomes
• Economic Sustainability Implementation
• National Harbor, tourism
• BRAC jobs
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FY 2010 Council Retreat
Forecast
City of AlexandriaCity of Alexandria
• National recession for most of 2009
• Recovery “L” shaped
• Regional job growth slower
• Re‐engineering of credit system causes:– Tempering of housing demand
– Lower vehicle and retail sales
– More equity required by all
– Credit market limits
– Multi‐quarter recession
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FY 2010 Council Retreat
Two Tales of One City
City of AlexandriaCity of Alexandria
• No recession economy in City likely
• Employment stable; federal contracting will grow
• Tourism, business travel stable
• Declining tax revenues, largely due to negative real and personal property values
• Discretionary consumer spending decreasing
Conclusion: The economy of the City will be less negatively impacted than the finances of the City Government.