Economic impacts of coral reef degradation caused by climate change and ocean acidification

Dr. Luke Brander

• Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam

• Division of Environment, HKUST, Hong Kong

• Email: lukebrander@gmail.com

International Conference on Climate Change and Coral Reef Conservation 29-30 June 2013

Outline

• Economic questions on climate change and OA

• Coral reef impacts: ecosystem services framework

• Global coral reef damages from ocean acidification

• Conclusions

Economic questions on climate change and ocean acidification

• What are the human welfare impacts of climate change (expressed in monetary terms)?

• Do the benefits of mitigation and adaptation (reduced climate change damage) outweigh the costs?

• What is the expected distribution of damages?

CC and OA Damage

Cost of Mitigation

Framework for coral reef impact assessment

• Ecosystem Services (ES) framework to link bio-physical environmental change to human welfare

• ES are the benefits that humans derive from ecosystems

• Coral reef ES:

– Fisheries

– Coastal protection

– Tourism/recreation

– Biodiversity

– Bio-prospecting

Impact pathway for coral reefs

Socio-Economic Activity

CO2 Emissions

Climate Change and Ocean Acidification

• Food webs

• Fish stocks

• Bleaching

• Storm damage

• Lower growth

•

•

Bio-physical impacts on coral reefs

• Fish Catch

• Aquaculture

• Fisheries

• Coastal protection

• Tourism

• Biodiversity

• Bio-prospecting

Ecosystem Services

• Welfare

• Distribution

• Vulnerability

• Food Security

• Adaptation

• Population

• Income

Socio-economic impacts

Coral reef degradation from OA

• Link models that describe the impact pathway for coral reefs:

• Economy-Climate (FUND)

• Ocean acidification

• Coral loss

• Visitor demand

• Ecosystem service values

• Scenario analysis 2000-2100 (SRES)

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

bil

lio

n p

eop

leA2

B1

A1

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Population Population

6

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2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

bil

lion p

eople

A2

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A1

B2

0

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70000

80000

90000

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

$/p

/yr

A1

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A2

Population

Income Income

6

7

8

9

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12

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bil

lion p

eople

A2

B1

A1

B2

0

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20000

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40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

$/p

/yr

A1

B1

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A2

Population Income

Visitors

0

5

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2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

vis

ito

rs (

20

00=

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A1

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Visitors

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ppm

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bil

lion p

eople

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60000

70000

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90000

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$/p

/yr

A1

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A2

Population Income Visitors

Carbon dioxide

0

5

10

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40

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

vis

itors

(2000=

1)

A1

A2

B1

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Visitors

300

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2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

ppm

A2

A1

B2

B1

-0.45

-0.40

-0.35

-0.30

-0.25

-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100ch

ang

e in

pH

B1

B2

A1

A2

6

7

8

9

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2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

bil

lion p

eople

A2

B1

A1

B2

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

$/p

/yr

A1

B1

B2

A2

Population Income Visitors

Carbon dioxide

Ocean Acidity

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

vis

itors

(2000=

1)

A1

A2

B1

B2

Visitors

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

ppm

A2

A1

B2

B1

-0.45

-0.40

-0.35

-0.30

-0.25

-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

chan

ge

in p

H

B1

B2

A1

A2

-0.30

-0.25

-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100fr

acti

on

co

ral

B1

B2

A1

A2

6

7

8

9

10

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12

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

bil

lion p

eople

A2

B1

A1

B2

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

$/p

/yr

A1

B1

B2

A2

Population Income Visitors

Acidity

Carbon dioxide

Corals

0

5

10

15

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25

30

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40

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

vis

itors

(2000=

1)

A1

A2

B1

B2

Visitors

300

400

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900

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

ppm

A2

A1

B2

B1

-0.45

-0.40

-0.35

-0.30

-0.25

-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

chan

ge

in p

H

B1

B2

A1

A2

-0.30

-0.25

-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

frac

tion c

ora

l

B1

B2

A1

A2

6

7

8

9

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2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

bil

lion p

eople

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B1

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0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

$/p

/yr

A1

B1

B2

A2

Population Income Visitors

Corals

Acidity

Carbon dioxide

Value

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

mln

$/k

m2

A1

B1

B2

A2

0

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20

25

30

35

40

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

vis

itors

(2000=

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A1

A2

B1

B2

Visitors

Value

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

bil

lion d

oll

arA1

B2

A2

B1

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

ppm

A2

A1

B2

B1

-0.45

-0.40

-0.35

-0.30

-0.25

-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

chan

ge

in p

H

B1

B2

A1

A2

-0.30

-0.25

-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

frac

tion c

ora

l

B1

B2

A1

A2

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

mln

$/k

m2

A1

B1

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A2

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

bil

lion p

eople

A2

B1

A1

B2

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

$/p

/yr

A1

B1

B2

A2

Population Income Visitors Value

Corals

Acidity

Carbon dioxide

Impact

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

vis

itors

(2000=

1)

A1

A2

B1

B2

Visitors

E

c

o

l

o

g

y

E c o n o m y

0.14% of GDP 1000

800

600

200

-200

Conclusions

• This is a first attempt to put a money value on OA impacts on coral reefs

• Provides an argument for both mitigation of CO2 emissions and adaptation to likely impacts

• Impacts are likely to be highly localised depending on vulnerability (exposure + dependence + adaptive capacity)

• Need for research at local scales

Thank you Thank You