economic impacts of mitigation: cge analyses for korea
TRANSCRIPT
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8/9/2019 Economic Impacts of Mitigation: CGE Analyses for Korea
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2;=;, ?, ==,
$ OIF Mlmjusfs agr Cgrfm $
Cgrfm Flqergldfl~ Els~e~v~f
Foglgdeo Ed{mo~s ga
De~eim~egl
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8/9/2019 Economic Impacts of Mitigation: CGE Analyses for Korea
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2
FLQ$Jelcmifs Dgnfj
Rfovrseqf nulmdeo ogd{v~mbjf iflfrmj f}vejebrevd dgnfj
nfqfjg{fn bu GFON
M{{jefn agr de~eim~egl mlmjusfs agrGFON Flqergldfl~mj Gv~jggc ~g
2;?;(2;;0% mln agjjgyeli mlmjusfs gl Foglgdeos ga ojedm~f o`mlif
Bmsfn gl I^M[ NB ye~` ajfpebjf miirfim~egl 2 rfiegls mln 21 sfo~grs el ~`es s~vnu
Cgrfml 2;;6 E$G ~mbjf rfajfo~fn
Fd{ereomj fs~edm~egl ga jmbgr mln om{e~mj sv{{ju agr Cgrfm
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8/9/2019 Economic Impacts of Mitigation: CGE Analyses for Korea
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Oglsvd{~egl
_elijf rf{rfsfl~m~eqf oglsvdfr agr fmo` rfiegl
Mjj ~`f elogdf argd amo~gr fmrlelis* lf~ ga ~mpfs* es s{fl~ agr {vro`msf ga iggns mlnsfrqeofs mln smqeli
smqeli es nf~frdelfn moogrneli ~g el~frfs~ rm~f
V~eje~u dmpedexm~egl {rgbjfd ga Oglsvdfr
F}vejebrevd bf`mqegr ga oglsvdfr
oglsvd{~egl 8 smqeli 8
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8/9/2019 Economic Impacts of Mitigation: CGE Analyses for Korea
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[rgnvo~egl8 Lfs~fn OF_ ~fo`lgjgiu
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8/9/2019 Economic Impacts of Mitigation: CGE Analyses for Korea
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Cfu mssvd{~egls mln o`mrmo~fres~eos ^yg celns ga om{e~mj qel~mifs
Xfrg${rgae~ oglne~egl agr aerds
Elqfs~dfl~ 4 smqeli
Mrdeli~gl mssvd{~egls agr ngdfs~eo qs, agrfeil iggns
Miirfim~f nfdmln es OF_ avlo~egl ga ed{gr~fn mln ngdfs~eomjju {rgnvofn iggns
Ngdfs~eo {rgnvo~egl es mjjgom~fn ~g fp{gr~ mln ngdfs~eo oglsvd{~egl moogrneli ~g OF^
(ogls~ml~$fjms~eoe~u$ga$~rmlsagrdm~egl% avlo~egl
Igqfrldfl~s ogjjfo~s qmregvs ~mpfs gl elogdf* el~frdfnem~f mln aelmj oglsvd{~egl*
{rgnvo~egl* ~mreaas* mln s{fln m {rfnf~frdelfn {gr~egl ga ~`f rfqflvf gl iggns mln
sfrqeofs
Igqfrldfl~ fp{flne~vrf s~rvo~vrf es mssvdfn ~g bf aepfn rfajfo~eli bmsf ufmr nm~m
Aesomj bmjmlof ga igqfrldfl~ es mssvdfn ~g bf aepfn mln elogdf ~mp rm~f es mnhvs~fn ~g dff~ ~`f bmjmlof
^frds ga ~rmnf mrf mnhvs~fn ~g dff~ {rfnf~frdelfn ~rmnf bmjmlof
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8/9/2019 Economic Impacts of Mitigation: CGE Analyses for Korea
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De~eim~egl _oflmreg
Moovdvjm~fn rfnvo~egl ga =,6&'ur=6~rmnf
Moovdvjm~fn rfnvo~egl ga =,;&'ur=;~rmnf Mjjgyfn
Moovdvjm~fn rfnvo~egl ga ;,6&'ur;6~rmnf
Moovdvjm~fn rfnvo~egl ga =,6&'ur=6ijgbmj
Moovdvjm~fn rfnvo~egl ga =,;&'ur=;ijgbmj
Moovdvjm~fn rfnvo~egl ga ;,6&'ur;6ijgbmj
LglfMoovdvjm~fn rfnvo~egl
ga =,6&'ur=6cgr
LglfMoovdvjm~fn rfnvo~egl
ga =,;&'ur
=;cgr
Omrbgl ^mp
Lglf
LglfMoovdvjm~fn rfnvo~egl
ga ;,6&'ur yr~ BMV;6cgr
$$$BMV8 Lg de~eim~eglBMV
AgrfeilCgrfm
Ngdfs~eo[gjeou
El~frlm~eglmjFdessegls ^rmneli
De~eim~egl ^mrif~^e~jf
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8/9/2019 Economic Impacts of Mitigation: CGE Analyses for Korea
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Omrbgl ^mp jfqfj (.'~OG2%
;
2 ;
> ;
1 ;
0 ;
= ; ;
= 2 ;
= > ;
= 1 ;
= 0 ;
B M V ; ; 6 c g r = ; c g r = 6 c g r ; 6 i j g b m j = ; i j g b m j = 6 i j g b m j ; 6 ~ r m n f = ; ~ r m n f = 6 ~ r m n f
2 ; 2 ;
2 ; ? ;
2 ; > ;
Q m r e m b j f O m r b g l ~ m p R f i e g l c g r
8 Q m j f v r
_ o f l m r e g
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8/9/2019 Economic Impacts of Mitigation: CGE Analyses for Korea
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0
Rfmj IN[ o`mlifs (& ga BMV%
$ 2 , 6 ; &
$ 2 , ; ; &
$ = , 6 ; &
$ = , ; ; &
$ ; , 6 ; &
; , ; ; &
B M V ; ; 6 c g r = ; c g r = 6 c g r ; 6 i j g b m j = ; i j g b m j = 6 i j g b m j ; 6 ~ r m n f = ; ~ r m n f = 6 ~ r m n f
2 ; 2 ;
2 ; ? ;
2 ; > ;
Q m r e m b j f R f m j I N [ R f i e g l c g r
8 Q m j f v r
_ o f l m r e g
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8/9/2019 Economic Impacts of Mitigation: CGE Analyses for Korea
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Rfmj IN[ o`mlifs (& ga BMV%
; , ; ; &
; , = ; &
; , 2 ; &
; , ? ; &
; , > ; &
; , 6 ; &
; , 1 ; &
; , 9 ; &
; , 0 ; &
; & 6 & = ; & = 6 & 2 ; & 2 6 & ? ; &
I
N
[
2 ; 2 ; W L g $ ^ r m n f
2 ; 2 ; W ^ r m n f
2 ; ? ; W L g $ ^ r m n f
2 ; ? ; W ^ r m n f
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8/9/2019 Economic Impacts of Mitigation: CGE Analyses for Korea
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= ;
Rfmj IN[ o`mlifs (& ga BMV%
;
= * ; ; ;
2 * ; ; ;
? * ; ; ;
> * ; ; ;
6 * ; ; ;
1 * ; ; ;
9 * ; ; ;
0 * ; ; ;
5 * ; ; ;
= ; * ; ; ;
; 6 ; = ; ; = 6 ; 2 ; ; 2 6 ; ? ; ; ? 6 ;
( O G 2 %
I
N
[
(
*
2
;
;
=
%
2 ; 2 ; W L g $ ^ r m n f
2 ; 2 ; W ^ r m n f
2 ; ? ; W L g $ ^ r m n f
2 ; ? ; W ^ r m n f
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8/9/2019 Economic Impacts of Mitigation: CGE Analyses for Korea
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= =
Rfmj Oglsvd{~egl o`mlifs (& ga BMV%
$ 2 , 6 ; &
$ 2 , ; ; &
$ = , 6 ; &
$ = , ; ; &
$ ; , 6 ; &
; , ; ; &
B M V ; ; 6 c g r = ; c g r = 6 c g r ; 6 i j g b m j = ; i j g b m j = 6 i j g b m j ; 6 ~ r m n f = ; ~ r m n f = 6 ~ r m n f
2 ; 2 ;
2 ; ? ;
2 ; > ;
Q m r e m b j f @ @ r f m j o g l s v d { ~ e g l R f i e g l c g r
8 Q m j f v r
_ o f l m r e g
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8/9/2019 Economic Impacts of Mitigation: CGE Analyses for Korea
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= 2
Rfmj Fp{gr~$Ed{gr~ o`mlifs (2;?;* & ga BMV%
$ 2 , 6 ; &
$ 2 , ; ; &
$ = , 6 ; &
$ = , ; ; &
$ ; , 6 ; &
; , ; ; &
B M V ; ; 6 c g r = ; c g r = 6 c g r ; 6 i j g b m j = ; i j g b m j = 6 i j g b m j ; 6 ~ r m n f = ; ~ r m n f = 6 ~ r m n f
R f m j F p { g r ~
R f m j E d { g r ~
2 ; ? ; R f i e g l c g r
8 Q m j f v r
_ o f l m r e g
Q m r e m b j f
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8/9/2019 Economic Impacts of Mitigation: CGE Analyses for Korea
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= ?
_fo~grmj QM o`mlifs (2;?;* & ga BMV%
$ = 0 , ; ; &
$ = 1 , ; ; &
$ = > , ; ; &
$ = 2 , ; ; &
$ = ; , ; ; &
$ 0 , ; ; &
$ 1 , ; ; &
$ > , ; ; &
$ 2 , ; ; &
; , ; ; &
2 , ; ; &
B M V ;
; 6 c g r
= ; c g r
= 6 c g r
; 6 i j g b m j
= ; i j g b m j
= 6 i j g b m j
; 6 ~ r m n f
= ; ~ r m n f
= 6 ~ r m n f
R f i e g l c g r _ f o ~ f v r ( % Q m r e m b j f Q , M , r f f j j f [ B 2 ; ? ;
8 Q m j f v r
_ f o ~ f v r 2
_ o f l m r e g
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8/9/2019 Economic Impacts of Mitigation: CGE Analyses for Korea
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= >
_fjfo~fn Cgrfml s~vnefs
^`es s~vnu
29& rfnvo~egl argd BMV el 2;?; rfsvj~ el IN[ o`mlif ga $;,96& ye~` O$~mp .6=,='~gl
Ced ! O`mli (2;;0%
?1& rfnvo~egl argd BMV el 2;?; rfsvj~ el IN[ o`mlif ga $;,26& ye~` O$~mp .>9,?'~gl
O`vli mln Jff (2;;9%
=0,>& rfnvo~egl argd BMV el 2;?; rfsvj~ el IN[ o`mlif ga $=,59& ye~` O$~mp .6>,6'~gl
O`g f~ mj (2;;1%
9;& rfnvo~egl argd BMV el 2;?; rfsvj~ el IN[ o`mlif ga $=6 |$2;&
CFFE (2;;1%
=5,0& rfnvo~egl argd BMV el 2;=6 rfsvj~ el IN[ o`mlif ga $;,>>& ye~` Mq, Ogs~ ga Ygl=96*;;;'~gl
CFFE (2;;>% >,5& rfnvo~egl argd BMV el 2;=6 rfsvj~ el IN[ o`mlif ga $;,;=&
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= 6
_gdf ed{jeom~egls ga Cgrfml _~vnefs
_eileaeoml~ qmremlofs ga foglgdeo ed{mo~s mdgli neaafrfl~ dgnfjs
Nvf ~g neaafrflofs el dgnfj s~rvo~vrfs* BMV mssvd{~egls* jmbgr'om{e~mj sv{{ju fjms~eoe~u* bmsfjelf nm~m* f~o,
Bei mnqfrsf ed{mo~ gl ogmj elnvs~ru mln sdmjjfr ed{mo~ gl fjfo~reoe~u
Beiifr ed{mo~s el selijf$rfiegl dgnfjs ogd{mrfn ~g dvj~e{jf$rfiegl dgnfjs
De~eim~egl ogs~ bvrnfl ga Cgrfm elorfmsfs y`fl g~`fr nfqfjg{eli ogvl~refs*
{mr~eovjmrju O`elm* ngl~ ~mcf de~eim~egl bvrnfl,
Amjjeli el~frlm~eglmj flfriu {reofs nvf ~g ijgbmj I@I de~eim~egl faagr~s ~fln ~g rfnvof
ogs~ bvrnfl ga `fmqu flfriu ed{gr~eli ogvl~refs* jecf Cgrfm,