economic growth in central texas: the promise and reality of prosperity in our region
DESCRIPTION
Overview of latest statistics available on Austin, TexasTRANSCRIPT
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Economic Growth in Central Texas: The Promise and Reality of Prosperity in our Region
June 2014
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1. What is driving growth in Austin?2. Where are people coming from?3. How long is this likely to last?4. Is everybody benefitting?5. Discussion
Presentation Overview
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What is driving growth?
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Rank Metro AreaPopulation
2013Pop Change
2000-13 Growth2000-13
1 Houston 6,313,158 1,595,651 34%
2 Dallas 6,810,913 1,575,528 30%
3 Atlanta 5,522,942 1,229,467 29%
4 Phoenix 4,398,762 1,125,285 34%
5 Riverside 4,380,878 1,103,856 34%
6 Washington DC 5,949,859 1,086,471 22%
7 New York 19,949,502 969,492 5%
8 Miami 5,828,191 802,296 16%
9 Los Angeles 13,131,431 738,727 6%
10 Las Vegas 2,027,868 633,959 45%
11 Austin 1,883,051 618,101 49%
Austin is 35th largest US metro but ranks 11th in population growth since 2000
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates. Rank is among metro areas (MSA) with population of one million or more.
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Metro Area 2000-13 Rank Metro Area 2009-13 Rank
Raleigh 51% 1 Austin 12% 1
Austin 49% 2 Raleigh 9% 2
Las Vegas 45% 3 Houston 8% 3
Orlando 37% 4 San Antonio 8% 4
Charlotte 35% 5 Denver 7% 5
Phoenix 34% 6 Dallas 7% 6
Houston 34% 7 Orlando 7% 7
Riverside 34% 8 Washington DC 7% 8
San Antonio 32% 9 Oklahoma City 7% 9
Dallas 30% 10 Charlotte 6% 10
Austin ranks #1 in population growth rate among large metros since recession
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates. Rank is among metro areas (MSA) with population of one million or more.
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20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20112012
20130
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
26,506
62,371
45,446
Annual Population Change in Austin MSA, 2001-13
Austin is growing by average of 50,000 per year (roughly size of San Marcos)
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates.
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Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Growth rate adjusted for inflation ($2012). Rank among top 50 US metros by GDP in 2012.
Austin ranks #3 in GDP growth among large metros since end of recession
Rank Metro AreaGDP 2012
(Billions)Real Growth
2009-12
1 Houston $449.4 17.8%
2 New Orleans $84.8 17.7%
3 Austin $98.7 14.5%
4 San Jose $173.9 12.9%
5 San Antonio $92.0 11.9%
6 Portland $147.0 11.3%
7 Dallas $420.3 11.3%
8 Nashville $94.8 10.0%
9 Detroit $208.4 9.6%
10 Louisville $62.8 8.6%
Austin economy has grown by 46% since
dot-com bust in 2001, second only to Houston
among the top 50 US metropolitan areas.
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Austin ranks #1 in job growth among large metros since end of recession
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics. Rank is among top 50 metro areas by total non-farm employment in 2013.
Denver
San Francisco
Columbus
Raleigh
San Antonio
Salt Lake City
Houston
San Jose
Nashville
Austin
7.9%
8.0%
8.1%
8.2%
8.2%
8.6%
10.1%
10.8%
11.3%
13.7%Job Growth, 2009-13 (Top 10 large US metros)
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20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
2014-15,000-12,500-10,000
-7,500-5,000-2,500
02,5005,0007,500
10,000
Annual Change in Tech Employment in Austin MSA
Tech employment in Austin on pace in 2014 to top dot-com era peak
TechJob Growth
2009-13
Austin 23%
US 6%
Jobs Multiplier: 3.5Avg Earnings: $120K
Source: EMSI. Does not include self-employment. Definition of tech sector in Austin is from Austin Technology Council economic impact report. Data for 2014 is an estimate. ATC report: http://civicanalytics.com/portfolio-item/quantifying-the-economic-impact-of-austins-tech-sector/
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Where are people coming from?
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Source: Internal Revenue Service. Map by Forbes showing net migration of tax filers (# of exemptions) to Travis County in 2008 tax year.
2008
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Source: Internal Revenue Service. Map by Forbes showing net migration of tax filers (# of exemptions) to Wayne County in 2008 tax year.
2008
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Source: Internal Revenue Service. Map by Forbes showing net migration of tax filers (# of exemptions) to Orleans Parish in 2006 tax year.
2006
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Roughly 2/3 of population growth in Austin due to people moving here
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates. Rank is among all metro areas (MSA). Net migration includes domestic and international.
Rank Metro AreaNet Migration
2013Share of Total
Pop Growth
1 Houston 81,124 59%
2 Dallas 52,142 48%
3 Miami 42,484 65%
4 Washington DC 41,366 47%
5 Phoenix 40,451 57%
6 San Francisco 40,283 65%
7 Seattle 34,970 61%
8 Orlando 32,041 72%
9 Denver 31,404 62%
10 Austin 31,230 65%
Year
Net MoversAustin MSA
Per Day
2013 86
2012 99
2011 97
83% of net migration to Austin from other places in US—Austin is #5 if international migration excluded.
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Households % Total
From Texas 21,270 58%
From Different State 15,022 41%
California 2,250 6%
From International 266 1%
Total 36,558 100%
Most people moving to Travis County come from other counties in Texas
Source: IRS. Tax returns are used here as proxy for households. This data includes employed college students who report a change of residence to Travis County.
15% of households that moved to Travis County from another state in 2011 came
from California.
But Californians made up only 6 out of every 100 new households, compared to 58 from other counties in TX.
Households Moving to Travis County, 2011
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Housing market effects established new “floor” for relocations from California
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,0002,624
2,250
# of Households Moving from California to Travis County
Source: IRS. Tax returns are used here as proxy for households. This data includes employed college students who report a change of residence to Travis County.
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Households moving to Austin MSA by top in-state & out-of-state metro
Metro AreaHHs
2011Average
HH IncHouston 4,178 $54,564Dallas 4,010 $47,300San Antonio 3,243 $39,516Killeen 1,228 $38,664Corpus Christi 642 $33,210College Station 552 $32,610El Paso 458 $38,432Waco 409 $35,557McAllen 390 $32,415Lubbock 328 $34,850
Metro AreaHHs
2011Average
HH IncLos Angeles 1,134 $52,537New York 866 $81,100Chicago 859 $131,855Washington DC 569 $83,256San Francisco 537 $93,467Phoenix 495 $54,658San Diego 439 $53,419Seattle 381 $62,068Miami 361 $48,905Boston 346 $58,421
Source: IRS. Tax returns are used here as proxy for households. This data includes employed college students who report a change of residence to Travis County.
From Texas From Other State
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How long is this likely to last?
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Housing affordability is still a selling point but Austin is losing ground
Source: BLS, CES, and Zillow. Housing prices are for May 2014.
Metro AreaJob Growth
2009-13Med List Price
Per Sq Ft (Buy)Med List Price
Per Sq Ft (Rent)
San Jose 10.8% $464 $2.52
San Francisco 8.0% $412 $2.53
Denver 7.9% $180 $1.35
Seattle 5.7% $176 $1.46
Portland 6.0% $165 $1.13
Salt Lake City 8.6% $161 $0.96
Austin 13.7% $130 $1.20
Raleigh 8.2% $111 $0.80
Nashville 11.3% $110 $0.86
San Antonio 8.2% $103 $0.84
Dallas 7.8% $100 $0.99
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Higher incomes provide many out-of-state movers ample housing choice
1. Steiner Ranch2. Milwood/Arrowwood3. North Burnet/Domain4. Blackhawk/Hidden Lake5. Canyon Creek6. Hyde Park
7. North Loop8. Onion Creek9. Barton Creek/Hills10. Old West Austin11. Northwest Hills12. Preston Oaks
Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2007-2011, Five-Year Estimates.
Most popular neighborhoods for people relocating to Austin from out-of-state (2007-11):
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ZIPPop Change
2000-10
78748 15,290
78717 14,390
78732 10,431
78747 9,729
78754 9,614
78738 9,294
78744 9,114
78739 8,149
78726 6,642
78735 6,460
Significant portions of growth pushed to periphery east & south/southeast
Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 Census. Map by ESRI.
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2011 2012 20130
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
20,049
22,854
13,434
10,754 9,94611,047
Travis CountyWilliamson County
Net Migration, # of People (Move In – Move Out)
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates.
…and probably to Williamson County
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1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2014
41%
52%
62% 63%59%
55%53%
46% 45%
City of Austin Share of Austin MSA Population
Austin (city) share of metro population is back to 1940s level but stabilizing
Source: Ryan Robinson, City Demographer, Department of Planning, City of Austin. January 2014.
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Challenges
• Combined cost of housing & transportation is true measure of affordability but overlooked due to focus on housing prices in core
• No compelling long-term vision or real sense of urgency for investing in regional solutions that can scale with growth
• Provision of infrastructure & public services is more expensive w/ low-density development
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Is everybody benefitting?
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Metro GDP Per Capita RankSan Jose $90,594 1San Francisco $79,799 2Seattle $71,693 5Houston $71,191 6Portland $63,500 11Salt Lake City $63,194 12Denver $62,238 13Dallas $61,716 14Nashville $53,921 26Austin $52,403 28Raleigh $50,549 33San Antonio $40,392 49
Overall wealth creation for residents in Austin is lagging benchmark regions
Source: Census, Population Estimates (2013) & BEA, GDP by Metro Area (2012). Rank is among top 50 US metros by GDP per capita.
GDP per capita is imperfect but widely used measure of wealth
in a regional economy.
Innovative, growing regions should be accompanied by
relatively higher levels of GDP per capita, as productivity gains are leveraged to improve living standards for residents through increased wages & amenities.
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Asian
White
Black
Hispanic
30%
45%
73%
80%
Workforce preparedness must improve to achieve inclusive participation
Source: US Census Bureau, 2009 ACS 1-Year Estimates. $17 per hour is the living wage for a family of one adult and one child in Austin.http://www.familybudgets.org/
% of Population Age 25+ in Austin MSA Without a Postsecondary Degree
2/3 of job openings in next 10 years paying average of $17+ per hour will
require a postsecondary degree.
But just 46% of primary working age (25-64) population in Austin MSA
have a postsecondary degree.
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Discussion
• What is economic development in Austin?
• Postsecondary education & workforce training are growth management strategies—how can we get more employers investing?
• How can we leverage once-in-a-generation investments (Waller Creek, medical school, urban rail) to create pathways for upward mobility for low-income workers?
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@civicanalytics
http://civicanalytics.com
512-731-7851
7600 Burnet Road, Suite 108Austin, Texas 78757