economic governance & social challenges problems (& opportunities) of socio-economic...

Economic Governance & Social Challenges

Problems (& Opportunities)of Socio-Economic Sustainability

Conférence interparlementaire sur la stabilité, la coordination économique et la gouvernance

au sein de l'UE (SCEG)Louis Chauvel

University of LuxembourgInstitute for Research on Socio-Economic Inequality (IRSEI)


• Introduction: socioeconomic imbalances and the challenges of European governance

• Some constraints for future generations• Population constraints • Growth constraints • Inequality constraints• A new structure of Europe• The problem of generations (…for the

debate…)• Conclusion: Malthus or Jonas

2

Yesterday EU6 socioeconomic goals

• Maintain peace, enhance democracy • Share common EU values and goals• Promote a European affluent economy • Form a middle-class society • Build sustainable Welfare regimes • Develop wellbeing

3

TODAY: ACCUMULATION OF CONSTRAINTS AND COMPLEX SOCIOECONOMIC SITUATIONS

Introduction: a short check-list for good Socio-Economic Governance

• Correctly identify of problems • Have a consensus majority to share the diagnosis• Have a consensus majority to share the same goals • Build precise tools to act on well identified targets • Maintain excellence in public management

• …Think about responsibility (future generations will accept todays decisions)

4



• Some constraints for future generations• Population constraints • Growth constraints • Inequality constraints• A new structure of Europe• The problem of generations • Conclusion: Malthus or Jonas

5

The European Union

Population constraints

Population pyramids for Germany in 1956, 2006, and 2050 (pop in 100.000)Horizontal bars are proportional to number of men (blue) and women (red). Roughly constant total fertility rate of 1·4, yearly net migration of 100 000 and life expectancy in 2050 reaching 83·5 years for men and 88·0 years for women. Ageing populations: the challenges ahead The Lancet, Volume 374, Issue 9696, Pages 1196-1208Kaare Christensen, Gabriele Doblhammer, Roland Rau, James W Vaupel

2050

The European Union

Share of World’s Population Angus Maddison 2008 / OECD database

2030

U.S.+CA

Europe West 30


7

Deep blue: less than 15yo are > 18%Light yellow: less than 15yo are < 14% Benjamin Henning

8




9

Logged real per cap income distribution 1960-2010 Source: SWIID + PWT

Logged Per capita real PPP-$2010 income

Popula

tion d

ensi

ty

CHINA

Europe+Japan

“REST”

U.S.

10

The European Union


2030

U.S.+CA

Europe West 30


Popula

tion d

ensi

ty

CHINA

Europe+Japan

“REST”

U.S.

11

1960

The European Union


2030

U.S.+CA

Europe West 30


Popula

tion d

ensi

ty

CHINA

Europe+Japan

“REST”

U.S.

12

2010

The European Union


GDP per capita gdppcap (Purchasing Power Parity) / World’s average of gdpcapAngus Maddison / OECD database until 2008

bg

dees

jp

po

us

12

34

5g

dp

pca

p

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000year

U.S.

Japan

Germany

Spain

Portugal

Bulgaria

13




14

The European Union


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jp

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12

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1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000year

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Japan

Germany

Spain

Portugal

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15

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INCOME per cap Logged Per capita real PPP-$2010 income

INEQUALITY GINI of INCOME 2010

Penn World Tables 2011 & SWIID inequality database

The European Union



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EU-6


The European Union



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EU-12


The European Union



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1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000year

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19



EU-28

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IS11

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LV11

MT11

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PL11

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20

The European Union


Level of living (equivalized post tax and transfer income in euros 2011 )Eurostat Silc-2011

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Income and inequality from EU-6 to EU-28

22Level of living (equivalized post tax and transfer income in euros 2011 )Eurostat Silc-2011

22

average level of living (K-euros)

Gini Index

National and European poverty rates in EU-6

23Poverty = below 60% of the mean / Eurostat Silc-2011

23


Gini Index

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National and European poverty rates in EU-28

24Level of living (equivalized post tax and transfer income in euros 2011 )Eurostat Silc-2011

24


Gini Index

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Todays EU socioeconomic challenges

• Maintain peace, enhance democracy => OK• Share common EU values and goals => HOW• Promote a European affluent economy => ?• Form a middle-class society => ?• Build sustainable Welfare regimes => ? • Develop wellbeing => ?

25

Back to a short check-list for good Socio-Economic Governance

• Correctly identify of problems => shared realities?• Have a consensus majority to share the diagnosis• Have a consensus majority to share the same goals • Build precise tools to act on well identified targets • Maintain excellence in public management

26


Enlargement was vital for the future of the EU • New agenda for the EU (10 years after)• Reflection on the new goals • Real integration of the new members• Convergence is not spontaneous generation • Time for deepening / strengthening

27

The Malthus’ Nightmare (2nd edit 1803)“A man who is born into a world already possessed, if he cannot get

subsistence from his parents on whom he has just demand, and if the society do not want his labour, has no claim of right to the smallest portion of food, and, in fact, has no business to be where he is. At nature’s mighty feast there is no vacant cover for him. She tells him to be gone, and will quickly execute her own orders, if he do not work upon the compassion of some of her guests. If these guests get up and make room for him, other intruders immediately appear demanding the same favour. The report of a provision for all that come fills the hall with numerous claimants. The order and harmony of the feast is disturbed, the plenty that before reigned is changed into scarcity ; and the happiness of the guests is destroyed by the spectacle of misery and dependence in every part of the hall, and by the clamorous importunity of those who are justly enraged at not finding the provision which they had been taught to expect. The guests learnt too late their error, in counteracting those strict orders to all intruders, issued by the great mistress of the feast, who, wishing that all her guests should have plenty, and knowing that she could not provide for unlimited numbers, humanely refused to admit fresh comers when her table was already full”

28

The Hans Jonas’ light (1979)

“Act so that the effects of your action are compatible with the permanence of genuine human life”;

or expressed negatively: “Act so that the effects of your action are not destructive of the future possibility of such life”

29

The Imperative of Responsibility (Das Prinzip Verantwortung) Hans Jonas (1979). (University of Chicago Press)

Thank you!

economic governance & social challenges problems (& opportunities) of socio-economic...

Documents

accumulation of constraints

european unionlogged

european commission

socioeconomic imbalances

real ppp

european affluent economy

cap income distribution

good socioeconomic governance