economic forum; tuesday 19 january 2016
TRANSCRIPT
ONS Economic Forum
Email: [email protected]
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#ONSeconomy
Website: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/get-
involved/events/events/economic-forum/index.html
19 January 2016
1
ONS Economic Forum – January 2016
09.45 Welcome
10.00 FDI and balance of payments
10.40 Update on ONS beta website
11.00 Refreshment break
11.30 What’s new
12.00 What’s next
12.30 Close
Agenda
2
Welcome
Jonathan Athow, Deputy National Statistician for Economic
Statistics
ONS Economic Forum
19 January 2016
3
Bean Interim Report
• Sir Charles Bean’s
interim report published
December 2015
• Final report due in next
couple of months
Five interim strategic recommendations
Refocus the culture of ONS towards better meeting user needs
Make the most of existing and new data
sources and the technologies for dealing
with them
Become better at understanding and interrogating data
Become more agile in the provision of statistics
that properly reflect the changing structure and characteristics of the
economy
Address established statistical limitations
Economics at ONS
• Increasing Openness,
Improving Capability
published December
2015
• Sets out some first steps
to address some of Sir
Charles Bean’s
recommendations
Economics at ONS (2)
Some key steps:
• Economic Forums in Manchester, Cardiff and Edinburgh, with plans
to include Belfast and Leeds in the summer.
• Improving the usability of the Virtual Micro-Date Laboratory (VML)
• Recruiting ONS Fellows – academics or other experts to work
alongside ONS teams to develop solutions.
• Launching a new recruitment exercise for economists
• Commissioned Prof. Nick Oulton to work on double deflation
• Increased use of now-casting – for example forthcoming timely
estimates of public sector productivity
• Improving the timeliness of key statistics, including household
income and associated inequality measures
• Developing Economics Statistics and Analysis Strategy
An analysis of foreign direct investment, the
main driver of the recent deterioration in the
UK’s current account: January 2016
Michael Hardie
Structural and International Statistics
ONS Economic Forum
19 January 2016
8
Outline
• Overview of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
& the Current Account deficit
• FDI by geographical region
• FDI by economic activity
9
Foreign Direct Investment
• Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) refers to cross-
border investments, with the aim of a establishing a
lasting interest in the company receiving investment.
• Ownership of at least 10% of the voting power,
representing the influence by the investor, is the
basic criterion used
• This incorporates the most recent FDI data for 2013
and 2014 – released in December 2015.
10
FDI and the Current Account
Secondary Income
Primary Income
Trade Current Account
FDI
Earnings
Comp. of Employees
Portfolio Investment Other
• The UK current account measures the economy’s
international transactions with the rest of the world, and
includes trade, primary income and secondary income
• The current account balance (plus capital) indicates
whether a country is a net lender or borrower 12
Overview of Foreign Direct Investment
(FDI) & the current account deficit
An analysis of Foreign Direct Investment, the key
driver of the recent deterioration in the UK’s Current
Account: January 2016
13
Net FDI earnings and impact on the current
account deficit (% of GDP), 2011 to 2014
53.5
34.9
18.8
2.0
53.5
34.9
27.8
13.2
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
2011 2012 2013 2014
Percent of GDP £ billion
Net FDI Earnings - Latest published Balance of Payments estimates (LHS)
Net FDI Earnings - Balance of Payments including the latest FDI annual estimates (LHS)
CA Deficit - Latest published Balance of Payments estimates (RHS)
CA Deficit - Balance of Payments including the latest FDI annual estimates (RHS) 14
Net FDI earnings according to latest published Balance of
Payments and latest FDI annual estimates, 2011 to 2014
105
87
75 73
51 52 57
71
105
87 84
71
51 52 56 58
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2011 2012 2013 2014
Latest published Balance of Payments estimates Balance of Payments including the latest FDI annual estimates
£ billion
Credits Debits Net Earnings 15
UK indicative current account balance deficit, 2013 to 2014
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
As P
erc
en
tag
e o
f G
DP
Balance of Payments including the latest FDI annual estimates Latest published Balance of Payments estimates 16
UK indicative current account balance and
components between 2006 and 2014
2.8% 2.7%
1.7% 1.6%
3.1% 3.3%
2.1% 1.6%
0.7%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
As p
erc
en
tag
e o
f G
DP
Primary Income (Excl. Direct Investment) Direct Investment
Trade Secondary
Current Account Balance 17
UK FDI positions and rates of return, 2011 to 2014
8.1%
6.5%
6.1%
5.4% 5.2%
4.2% 4.5%
4.3%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2011 2012 2013 2014
Assets Liabilities
Rate of return £ billion
FDI Positions (LHS) Rate of Return (RHS) 18
FDI by economic region
An analysis of Foreign Direct Investment, the key
driver of the recent deterioration in the UK’s Current
Account: January 2016
19
UK FDI credits and debits by geographical region, 2011 to
2014
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
EU Non-EU Europe
N America
CS America
Asia Aus & Oceania
Africa EU Non-EU Europe
N America
CS America
Asia Aus & Oceania
Africa
FDI Credits FDI Debits
£ billion
2011 2012 2013 2014
20
Movements in UK FDI assets and rates of return
between 2011 and 2014
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Rate of return, %
£ billion
EU28 Europe (Non-EU) N Americas SC Americas Asia 21
Movement in UK FDI liabilities and rates of return
between 2011 and 2014
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Rate of return, %
£ billion
EU28 Europe (Non-EU) N Americas SC Americas Asia 22
UK FDI credits, debits and balances with the EU,
2007 to 2014
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
£ billion
FDI Credits FDI Debits FDI Income Balance 23
UK FDI earnings, actual and counterfactual totals,
2011 to 2014
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2011 2012 2013 2014
Actual Counterfactual
£ billion
Credits Debits Balance 24
UK FDI credits, actual and counterfactual by
geographical region, 2011 to 2014
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014
£ billion
EU
N America
CS America
Europe
Africa
Asia
Aus, Oce & Pol.
Composition Effect
Counterfactual
Actual
25
UK FDI debits actual and counterfactual by
geographical region, 2011 to 2014
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
2011 2012 2013 2014
£ billion
N America
Europe
CS America
Africa
Aus, Oce & Pol.
Composition Effect
Asia
EU
Counterfactual
Actual
26
FDI by economic activity
An analysis of Foreign Direct Investment, the key
driver of the recent deterioration in the UK’s Current
Account: January 2016
27
Figure 14: Changes in FDI credits, debits and net
between 2011 and 2014
Production
Transport, Storage & Communications
Distribution, Hotels & Restaurants
Business Services & Finance
Other
Construction
Government, Health & Support and Other Services
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5
£ billion
Due to FDI credits Due to FDI debits FDI Income Balance 28
Figure 14: Changes in FDI credits, debits and net
between 2011 and 2014
Manufacturing
Mining & Quarrying
Water collection
Electricity, gas, steam & air
-15 -12 -9 -6 -3 0 3
£ billion
Due to FDI credits Due to FDI debits FDI Income Balance 29
Summary
• Revised Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) estimates for 2013 and
2014 show that the amount the UK generated from its overseas
foreign direct investment (credits) fell from £104.6 billion to
£71.1 billion between 2011 and 2014.
• In contrast, the amount overseas investors generated on UK
direct investment (debits) increased from £51.1 billion to £57.9
billion between 2011 and 2014.
• A decrease in the value of credits and rise in debits resulted in
the UK’s net foreign direct investment earnings falling from
£53.5 billion to £13.2 billion over the period.
• Incorporating these data show that the current account balance
in 2014 widened to 4.5% of nominal GDP. This would soften the
latest published estimates of the current account, which
currently report a deficit of 5.1% of nominal GDP.
30
Manufacturing and services output
33
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2014 JAN
2014 APR
2014 JUL
2014 OCT
2015 JAN
2015 APR
2015 JUL
2015 OCT
Manufacturing
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2014 JAN
2014 APR
2014 JUL
2014 OCT
2015 JAN
2015 APR
2015 JUL
2015 OCT
Services
Distn, hotels & restaurants
Government & other
Business sers & finance
Transport, storage & comms
Total services
% changes on same month of previous year
Household consumption – slower growth
in cash spend while volumes grow
34
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1
Price deflator
Volume
Current prices
% changes on same quarter of previous year
Household consumption
35
% changes on same period of previous year
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1
Goods
Price deflator
Volume
Current prices
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1
Services
Household consumption
36
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1
Transport
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1
Food and drink
Volume Price deflator Current prices
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1
Recreation and culture
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1
Restaurants and hotels
% changes on same period of previous year
Households’ financial liabilities
37
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1987 Q1
1989 Q1
1991 Q1
1993 Q1
1995 Q1
1997 Q1
1999 Q1
2001 Q1
2003 Q1
2005 Q1
2007 Q1
2009 Q1
2011 Q1
2013 Q1
2015 Q1
Total financial liabilities Total loans Loans secured on dwellings
Stock of financial liabilities as % of households’ total annual available resources
Export and import volumes
38
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1
Exports
Imports
Trade volumes excluding oil and erratics, index nos, 2012=100
EU and non-EU trade volumes
39
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1998 Q1 2000 Q1 2002 Q1 2004 Q1 2006 Q1 2008 Q1 2010 Q1 2012 Q1 2014 Q1
Total
EU
Non-EU
Volume of trade in goods excluding oil and erratics:
ratio of exports to imports, index nos 2001=100
Consumer price inflation
40
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
% changes on a year earlier
CPI All items Core CPI
Core CPI = excluding energy, food, alcohol & tobacco
Average weekly hours worked
41
15.0
15.5
16.0
16.5
17.0
17.5
36.0
36.5
37.0
37.5
38.0
38.5
Full time Part time
Full time Part-time
Falling hours affect productivity growth
42
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1
Output per worker
Output per hour
% changes on same quarter of previous year
…and average weekly earnings
43
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15
Average earnings growth
Private sector
Public sector excl financial services
Real wage growth
Three month averages, % changes on same period a year earlier
The earnings distribution - ASHE
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
£2.50 £5.00 £7.50 £10.00 £12.50 £15.00 £17.50 £20.00 £22.50 £25.00 £27.50 £30.00
Density, %
Gross hourly earnings, £
1997 2015
Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, ONS calculations
Distribution of hourly nominal earnings, 1997 and 2015
44
Proportion of hours paying close to NMW
3.9
3.4 3.1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
%
Within 2%
Within 1%
Within 0.5%
Proportion of hours worked paying close to the adult NMW
Adults are defined in accordance with the NMW adult rate, i.e. Between 1999 and 2008, adults
are 22 and over. From 2009 onwards, adults are 21 and over. No account made for
apprenticeships.
Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, ONS calculations 45
Real earnings growth more prevalent in 2015…
Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, ONS calculations
Notes: Real earnings calculated using the Consumer Prices Index (CPI)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Above 10%
5% to 10%
2.5% to 5%
0.5% to 2%
-0.5% to 0.5%
-2.5% to -0.5%
-5% to -2%
-10% to -5%
Below -10%
% of employees employed full-time in both years
Percentages of FT employees by their annual rate of real weekly earnings growth
46
• Capital stocks (1 Dec)
• Family Spending (8 Dec)
• Regional GVA (9 Dec)
• Public sector productivity (10 Dec)
• Wealth and Assets (18 Dec)
• Historic estimates of financial accounts and
balance sheets (12 Jan)
• GDP revisions performance (19 Jan)
What’s new –recent ONS publications
47
Shares of UK economic output by
region/country
Share of UK Economic Output (GVA)
1997 2014
North East 3.2% 3.0%
North West 10.0% 9.4%
Yorkshire and The Humber 7.2% 6.7%
East Midlands 6.4% 6.0%
West Midlands 8.1% 7.2%
East of England 9.0% 8.7%
London 19.2% 22.9%
South East 14.9% 15.1%
South West 7.7% 7.6%
Wales 3.7% 3.4%
Scotland 8.3% 7.8%
Northern Ireland 2.4% 2.2%
In 2014:
The Greater South
East (London + SE +
EE) produced 47% of
UK output.
North of England 19%,
Midlands 13%,
Devolved nations 13%.
48
London has outperformed since 2008
The 2008-2014 data
shows how the
regions fared through
the downturn and
subsequent recovery.
The 2002-2008 data
shows how the
regions fared in a
similar period prior to
the downturn.
Note: due to the
economic downturn,
annual output in most
regions reached a
temporary peak in
2008 before declining
in 2009.
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
Northern Ireland
Yorkshire and The Humber
North East
North West
Scotland
East of England
West Midlands
Wales
South West
East Midlands
South East
London
Increase in nominal GVA
Regional GVA growth before and since 2008
2008-2014 2002-2008 49
Chained volume measure GDP at market prices
1991 to 2015, by Blue Book vintage, £ billion
50
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
Q1 1991
Q1 1993
Q1 1995
Q1 1997
Q1 1999
Q1 2001
Q1 2003
Q1 2005
Q1 2007
Q1 2009
Q1 2011
Q1 2013
Q1 2015
BB2003
BB2004
BB2005
BB2006
BB2007
BB2008
BB2009
BB2010
BB2011
BB2012
BB2013
BB2014
BB2015
£ billion
Revisions to GDP growth between first and third
estimates, Q1 2007 to Q3 2015
M1 M3 Revision
Absolute
Revision
Q1 2007 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Revision Count
Q3 2013 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% -0.5% 1
Q4 2013 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% -0.4% 0
Q1 2014 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% -0.3% 0
Q2 2014 0.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% -0.2% 1
Q3 2014 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% 10
Q4 2014 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 12
Q1 2015 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% +0.1% 7
Q2 2015 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% +0.2% 2
Q3 2015 0.5% 0.4% -0.1% 0.1% +0.3% 2
Average revision 0.00% 0.11%51
Mean revisions, quarter on quarter growth, chained
volume measure GDP, T to T + 24 months
52
0.00%
0.10%
0.20%
0.30%
0.40%
0.50%
0.60%
0.70%
0.80%
0.90%
Q2 1961 to Q4 1971
Q1 1972 to Q4 1983
Q1 1984 to Q4 1994
Q1 1995 to Q4 2004
Q1 2005 to Q3 2013
Mean absolute revisions % growth
-0.04%
-0.02%
0.00%
0.02%
0.04%
0.06%
0.08%
0.10%
0.12%
0.14%
0.16%
Q2 1961 to Q4 1971
Q1 1972 to Q4 1983
Q1 1984 to Q4 1994
Q1 1995 to Q4 2004
Q1 2005 to Q3 2013
Mean revisions % growth
GDP at market prices, CVM percentage growth, Q1
1960 to Q4 2012, quarter on quarter
53
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
Q1 1960
Q1 1964
Q1 1968
Q1 1972
Q1 1976
Q1 1980
Q1 1984
Q1 1988
Q1 1992
Q1 1996
Q1 2000
Q1 2004
Q1 2008
Q1 2012
T
T +3
T +6
T +12
T +24
T + 36
T + 48
T + 60
GDP at market prices (CVM) growth, Q1 1960 to Q4
2012, quarter on quarter (T and T +60 months)
54
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
Q1 1960
Q1 1964
Q1 1968
Q1 1972
Q1 1976
Q1 1980
Q1 1984
Q1 1988
Q1 1992
Q1 1996
Q1 2000
Q1 2004
Q1 2008
Q1 2012
T
T + 60
Productivity by firm size
55
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
£ thousands
1 to 9 employees
10 to 49 employees
50 to 249 employees
250+ employees
Output per worker
Source: ONS Economic Review, January 2016
What’s next
Darren Morgan, Deputy Director, National Accounts
Coordination
ONS Economic Forum
19 January 2016
56
• Blue Book 2016 plans
• National Accounts work plan
• Use of HMRC VAT administrative data
• Construction output and prices development
• Household satellite account plans
What’s next - outline
57
Scope of Blue Book 2016 (slide 1 of 6)
Key BB16 methodological improvement
• Data sources and methodology used in measuring the
estimates for imputed rental
4
Scope of Blue Book 2016 (slide 2 of 6)
BB16 technical improvements
• The sub-division of non-market output into:
payments for non-market output (fees and charges)
non-market output, other (provided free at point of consumption)
reclassification of income received by Govt and Non-Profit
Institutions Serving Households from market output to payments for
non-market output
59
Scope of Blue Book 2016 (slide 3 of 6)
BB16 technical improvements cont’d
• Classification and recording of social transfers in kind
market production for the first time:
Government purchases of goods and services delivered directly to
households by the market producer
Best example is prescription medicines
60
Scope of Blue Book 2016 (slide 4 of 6)
Other BB16 improvements
• Calculation of explicit adjustments for VAT fraud without complicity
• Minor change to the methodology used in estimating illegal activities
• Incorporation of a methodology improvement made by HM Revenue &
Customs for the import of gas
• Improvements to water transport and post & courier industry (output)
• Base year and reference year changes
61
Scope of Blue Book 2016 (slide 5 of 6)
Other BB16 improvements cont’d
• Reclassifications: keeping NA in line with latest reclassifications:
Transport for London classification changes (to local govt. from public
non-financial corps) taken into Capital Stocks/Capital consumption
London Continental Railway re-classified to the Public Corporations
sub-sector from Central Government
• Inclusion of the London Crossrail Business rates supplement
62
Scope of Blue Book 2016 (slide 6 of 6)
And finally…
• Transition from output at purchaser’s prices to basic prices.
• No data impact but will lift final ESA95 GNI reservation
63
Scope of Blue Book 2016 Communications (1 of 3)
Communications - similar approach to last couple of years
Wave 1: methodological details and impact (annual) on current prices for
earlier years (1997 - 2011): 24 February
• Impact on GDP CP annual estimates
• Methodological article: Imputed Rent
• Methodological article: Market/non-market split and social transfers in kind
• Details of all other improvements (separate article or part of impact one)
64
Scope of Blue Book 2016 Communications (3 of 3)
Wave 2: impact (annual) on chained volume measures for earlier years
(1997 – 2011): 23 March
Wave 3: current prices & chained volume measures: annual and
quarterly: later years: SFA, BoP as well as GDP
• Impact on GDP CP & CVM annual and qtly estimates: 1997 – 2014
• Impact on SFA: 1997 – 2014
• Impact on BoP: 1997 – 2014
• Classification changes to National Accounts for BB16
• GDP: 20 May
• SFA, BoP, Classifications: 7 June
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method-quality/specific/economy/national-
accounts/changes-to-national-accounts/index.html
65
NA work plan update
• consulted 13 July - 25 Sep, published response and updated plan 27 Nov.
2016-2018 plan:
• High quality regular outputs: better understood, underlying data more accessible
• Meet international standards:
• 2017: NPISH/Household Split, Sub-Sectoring of Financial Corp sector, Introduction of
Revaluation of Change in Volume Acct, Pension Supplementary Table/core accounts
consistent
• 2018: Supply-Use in Previous Years Prices
• Flow of Funds, GDP(O) improvements, NA/Public Sector Finances Alignment continue
• Improved data sources:
• new Purchases Survey: start to use in 2017, use fully in 2018
• increased use of admin data
• Will review and produce new plan following Bean Review’s final report
66
HMRC data in National Accounts
• Parallel-runs of HMRC and MBS will be used to test impact of approach in the
Spring for a pilot number of industries.
• Pilot use of turnover data for part of short-term output indicators and GDP(O) in
Summer 2016
• Likely to retain Monthly Business Survey (MBS) ‘fully enumerated’ businesses
(14,000 per month)
• BUT…replace some or all of the sampled MBS businesses (18,000 per month)
with admin data.
• December 2015 article illustrated the potential impact of our long-term aim for
three industries. Revisions to Q on Q growth were not significant.
67
Q-o-Q Growth rates 2011Q2 to 2014Q4: MBS/VAT (red) vs. MBS (blue)
2011Q
2
2011Q
3
2011Q
4
2012Q
1
2012Q
2
2012Q
3
2012Q
4
2013Q
1
2013Q
2
2013Q
3
2013Q
4
2014Q
1
2014Q
2
2014Q
3
2014Q
4 -0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
SIC07 55 – Accommodation services
2011Q
2
2011Q
3
2011Q
4
2012Q
1
2012Q
2
2012Q
3
2012Q
4
2013Q
1
2013Q
2
2013Q
3
2013Q
4
2014Q
1
2014Q
2
2014Q
3
2014Q
4 -0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
SIC07 58 – Publishing activities
2011Q
2
2011Q
3
2011Q
4
2012Q
1
2012Q
2
2012Q
3
2012Q
4
2013Q
1
2013Q
2
2013Q
3
2013Q
4
2014Q
1
2014Q
2
2014Q
3
2014Q
4 -0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5 SIC07 75 – Veterinary activities
Points to note:
• All HMRC VAT data is ‘experimental’
and not finalised.
• Work to address issues incomplete:
e.g. cleaning, calendarisation
• Results are for illustrative purposes.
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Comparison of MBS SME’s and HMRC businesses for three industries
• Next article will be published in March.
• Further information:
HMRC VAT update (21 December 2015)
Feasibility study into the use of HMRC turnover data within Short-term Output
Indicators and National Accounts (14 August 2015)
Exploitation of HMRC VAT data (7 October 2015)
55 - Accommodation 58 - Publishing 75- Veterinary Total
MBS 224 100 30 354
HMRC 12,478 9,927 3,083 25,488
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Construction: Current position
• construction output and new orders deflated using interim
solution
• due to assumptions not possible to use for prolonged period
• created steering group to guide development
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Construction: Going forward
• 11 December 2015 published work plan.
• consultation launched shortly to confirm priorities identified by
the steering group.
• comparison of construction output and VAT will be published.
• part of work on nominal data, also reviewing collection
instrument.
• high level view given of options available for construction price
and cost indices
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Development options: construction price and cost indices
Three options have been identified:
• create Tender Price Index and convert to Output Price Index
• OECD method: use input prices and convert to output prices
• establish survey for construction prices or use external data
• feasibility studies for options begun.
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Household Satellite Accounts (HSA)
• ONS currently compiling a set of household satellite accounts for 2014.
• Provides a means by which the influence of changing patterns of unpaid work on the economy can be measured.
• HHSA will value unpaid household work, including: Childcare
Adult care
Housing services (e.g. DIY, gardening)
Nutrition
Transport
Volunteering
Laundry
• Aim to publish in late March/Early April.
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ONS Economic Forum - Measuring owner
occupiers' housing costs in CPIH
Friday 26 February 2016, 09:00-11:30
Conference Centre, Bank of England, Threadneedle
Street, London, EC2R 8AH
Chair - Jonathan Athow (Deputy National Statistician for Economic
Statistics)
09.00 Registration and coffee
09.30 Welcome: Jonathan Athow
09.40 ONS - Development of the owner occupiers' component of CPIH and
research on the private rental sector
10.10 Countrywide - Expert in the private rental sector: Johnny Morris
(Research Director)
10.30 Refreshment break
10.50 Open panel discussion (ONS, Countrywide, Bank of England)
11.30 Close
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ONS Economic Forum
Email: [email protected]
Twitter: @ONS
#ONSeconomy
Website: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/get-
involved/events/events/economic-forum/index.html
19 January 2016
75