economic and housing outlook - idaho legislature · difficulty facing first-time buyers – •...
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Economic and Housing Outlook
By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.
Chief Economist, National Association of REALTORS®
Presentation at NAR Annual Meetings
San Diego, CA
November 13, 2015
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Lifetime Wealth at All-Time High
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Dow Jones Industrial Average(Doubling since 2009)
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Median Household Income(Inflation Adjusted)
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GDP GrowthInconsistent with 2.2% average since 2014
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Sluggish Growth + Gap after Recession
($1.7 trillion gap … $5,000 per person)
3% Growth Line
2.2% Growth Line
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GDP Component on Residential Construction and
SalesMore consistent with 6.6% average since 2014
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Homeownership Rate(seasonally adjusted … 50-year low)
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Young People: Under 35 years old
Historic Low Homeownership Rate
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First-time collapse … why?Lowest in nearly 30 years … since 1987
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Difficulty Facing First-time Buyers –
• Student loan debt, even among successful first-time home buyers: – 41% have student loan debt and typical amount is
$25,000
• No affordable inventory: – 51% hardest task is finding the right property
• Competition from vacation buyers and investors– Buying similar priced/size homes and paying all cash
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Student Loan(in $billion)
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Sales Change by Price Points(% change from one year ago in September)
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H.O.M.E. Survey (Housing Opportunity and Market
Experience)
• Desire to own remains strong and is strengthening:
– 87 percent of Americans believe homeownership is part of their personal American Dream
– HIGHER for 18-24 year olds at 91 percent
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H.O.M.E. Survey(Housing Opportunity and Market
Experience)
• Psychological reasons, but also financial
• Americans want to own for a place to raise a family and own a place of their own, but also a nest egg for retirement
• Recent buyers bought for to start a family but also because owning is cheaper than renting
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H.O.M.E. Survey(Housing Opportunity and Market
Experience)
83 percent of Americans believe buying is a good
financial decision
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Younger Buyers Have Optimism—View Home as Good Financial Investment
2015 Profile of Generational Trends
82% 77% 77%72%
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Homeownership Rate Fall Further … why?
Net New Renters
In thousands
Net New HomeownersIn thousands
Homeownership Rate only among the New
People
2008 482 -67 0%
2009 713 -90 0%
2010 771 -194 0%
2011 974 -421 0%
2012 1120 -193 0%
2013 599 55.5 9%
2014 1112 -89 0%
2015 forecast 800 200 30%
2016 forecast 600 600 50%
2017 forecast 500 700 58%
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Even with Falling ownership rate, Home Sales to Rise Further
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Housing Forecast made in November 2014
2015Forecast
(made one year ago)
2015 Likely
Housing Starts 1.3 millionWas Too high
1.1 million
New Home Sales 620,000Was Little high
570,000
Existing Home Sales 5.3 millionWas Right On
5.3 million
Median Price Growth + 4%Was Too Low
+ 6%
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Housing Forecast Good for 20162013 2014 2015
Likely2016
Forecast
Housing Starts 925,000 1 million 1.1 million 1.4 million
New Home Sales
430,000 437,000 570,000 720,000
Existing Home Sales
5.1 million 4.9 million 5.3 million 5.4 to 5.5 million
Median Price Growth
+ 11.5% + 5.7% + 6% +5%
30-year Rate 4.0% 4.2% 3.8% 4.5%
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Monthly Pending Sales IndexLosing Momentum
(Seasonally Adjusted)
Source: NAR
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Momentum in Pending Contract(% change from one year ago)
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Trigger? Jump in Mortgage Rate
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Fed Rate Hike in December?
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Fed Rate Hike in December
then again in March
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Fed Rate Hike in December
then again in March
then again in August
then again in …
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Fed Policy and Mortgage Rate
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What Determines Bond Yields?
• Federal Reserve’s short-term rate changes• Inflation and erosion of purchasing power• Foreign capital flow and demand for dollar• Savings rate• U.S. budget deficit• Printing of money• …
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Federal Deficit - Shrinking( $ million, 12 month total)
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Federal Debt … Cumulative ( $ million; debt held by public excluding intra-
governmental holdings)
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No CPI Inflation – Yet
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Rents Rising at 7-year high
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Rental Vacancy Rate(30-year low)
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Credit Box Opens?
• FICO New Method
• Fannie/Freddie
– Lower down payment products
• FHA premiums … lowered
• Portfolio Lending … historic low mortgage default rates on recent vintages (2010-2014)
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Fannie/Freddie G-fees for Highways?
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Rising Home Price is becoming Obstacle
(Median National Existing Home Price)
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New Home Price … Even Higher
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Condos Underperforming(% change from 12 months ago in September)
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Affordability Solution …Tiny Home Movement?
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Tiny Home Movement?
Less than 1% of all homes sold … perhaps much less than 1%
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Real Solution to Affordability … More Supply
• More Supply– Existing Homeowners List Homes
– Shadow Inventory of Distressed Homes
– Newly Constructed Homes
– More Rental Housing … Can be converted to Condominiums Later
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Pent-Up Home Sellers
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Shadow Inventory(% of mortgages in foreclosure or late
payment)
10%
2%
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National Shadow Inventory (% of mortgages in foreclosure or late
payment)
4%
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Housing StartsThousand units
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Massive Housing Shortage(from 2012 to 2015)
Metro Job Creation New HomeConstruction
Ratio
San Francisco-Oakland
234,000 30,000 7.8
Grand Rapids 46,000 6,000 7.8
San Jose 118,000 23,000 5.1
San Diego 101,000 21,000 4.9
Miami-Ft. Lauderdale
191,000 48,000 3.9
Salt Lake City 57,000 15,000 3.9
New York City 400,000 114,000 3.5
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Why Would Home Sales Rise?
• Rising Mortgage Rates – Not Good
• Too Fast Rising Prices – Not Good
• Housing Equity for Pent-up Sellers –Good
• Return Boomerang Buyers - Good
• Steadily increased supply - Good
• Job creation – Super Good
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Trade-Up Opportunitiesfrom Housing Equity
$ billion
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Return Buyers
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Time to Sell a New Spec Home(in months)