Economic and Demographic Characteristics of

Arizona’s Eighth Congressional District March, 2006

Jim Kolbe is retiring after 11 terms. Kolbe has offices in Tucson, AZ 85712 Sierra Vista, AZ 85635 SE corner of the state.

Interactive map, courtesy of the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission: http://156.42.40.10/mapping/default2.asp?finalcong=on&tname=Final.Congressional.Map&service=ircmaps&init=true The district includes: all of Cochise County the eastern third of Pima County, including the majority of the City of Tucson ½ of Santa Cruz County, but does not include Nogales or Rio Rico a tiny piece of Pinal (no census towns.) According to census 2000, the population of the CD was 641,329.

COUNTY

pop in district

county pop

% county in district

% pop of CD in County

Cochise County 117,755 117,755 100.00% 18.36%

Pima County (part) 514,697 843,746 61.00% 80.25%

Pinal County (part) 4,727 179,727 2.63% 0.74% Santa Cruz County (part) 4,150 38,381 10.81% 0.65%

Total 641,329 100.00%

The total population of Tucson was 486,699. 256,535 or 52.71% of these were in the 8th district, the rest are in the 7th. Rep. Grijalva’s site states that “The urban center of District 7 contains the central, south and west sides of the city of Tucson. The population within the district is predominantly working-class families, from a variety of ethnic and racial backgrounds. The majority of Tucson’s Hispanic, urban Native American and African-American residents live in the 7th congressional district.” Major Cities just outside the district Nogales is in Santa Cruz County about 10 miles outside the district. 20,878 South Tucson is in Pima County just outside the district. 5,490 Tucson Estates CDP is in Pima County just outside the district. 9,755 Employment: All Employees 2004 dollars 2004 2000 2004 2000

total change 2000-2004

avg yrly chg 2000-2004

All emp 04 All emp 00 Av Week Wage Avg Annual Pay

All emp

Wk Wage

All emp

Wk Wage

US 129278176 129877063 757 745 39354 38749 -0.5% 1.6% -0.1% 0.4%AZ 2354660 2220712 705 688 36646 35772 6.0% 2.4% 1.5% 0.6%AZ8 245858 234024 647 606 33654 31512 5.1% 6.8% 1.2% 1.7%

Manufacturing Employees 2004 dollars 2004 2000 2004 2000

total change 2000-2004

avg yrly chg 2000-2004

Mfg emp 04 Mfg emp 00 Av Week Wage Avg Annual Pay

Mfg emp

Wk Wage

Mfg emp

Wk Wage

US 14257380 18420144 920 945 47861 49118 -22.6% -2.6% -6.2% -0.6%AZ 176718 214858 1014 1024 52723 53256 -17.8% -1.0% -4.8% -0.3%AZ8 18283 21400 1084 1003 56363 52134 -14.6% 8.1% -3.9% 2.0%

Retail Trade Employees 2004 dollars 2004 2000 2004 2000

total change 2000-2004

avg yrly chg 2000-2004

retail emp 04

retail emp 00

Av Week Wage Avg Annual Pay

retail emp

Wk Wage

retail emp

Wk Wage

US 15060686 23298757 470 389 24415 20217 -35.4% 20.8% -10.3% 4.8%AZ 289481 415082 508 406 26429 21110 -30.3% 25.2% -8.6% 5.8%AZ8 30612 45183 453 354 23541 18430 -32.2% 27.7% -9.3% 6.3%

Poverty rates, 1999-2000, 2003-2004 (percent) 1999-2000 2003-2004 United States 11.6 12.6 Arizona 11.9 13.9

Child-poverty rates, 2000, 2003 (percent) All ages Age 0-4 Age 5-17 Age 0-17 2000 2003 2000 2003 2000 2003 2000 2003 United States 11.3 12.5 18.7 20.3 14.6 16.1 16.2 17.6 Arizona 12.5 13.9 18.4 21.0 18.3 19.9 18.7 20.7

Hourly wage distribution, 1998-2000 and 2003-2005 (Wage percentiles in constant $2005) 1998-2000 2003-2005 10th 50th 90th 10th 50th 90th US 7.16 13.81 30.25 7.29 14.43 31.64 AZ 7.03 12.89 28.36 7.43 14.00 30.00

Percentage of workers 18-64 with health insurance Period Period 1998-2000 2002-2004. US 55.7% 53.8% AZ 51.9% 51.7%

Percentage of workers 18-64 covered by pension Period Period 1998-2000 2002-2004. US 48.5% 46.0% AZ 41.5% 40.9%

Bankruptcy filing rate per 1000

2000 2004

Change 2000-2004

AZ8 3.83 4.63 20.9%

AZ 3.91 5.38 37.6%

US 4.32 5.32 23.1%

OASDI beneficiaries with benefits in current-payment status and avg. monthly benefits, December 2004

Number of beneficiaries Average monthly benefits

(dollars)

Total Retired

workers a Disabled workers

Widow(er)s b Spouses c Children d

Allbeneficiaries

Retired workers

Widow(er)s b

Number ofbeneficiaries

aged 65 or older

All areas e 47,687,693 29,952,474 6,198,271 4,828,972 2,721,657 3,986,319 872 955 897 33,696,001

AZ 893,088 581,543 114,684 76,897 49,430 70,534 894 973 926 632,033

AZ8 141,806 96,491 15,661 12,308 9,037 8,309 911 979 956 105,978

Recipients of federally administered SSI payments and avg. monthly benefits, December 2004

Number of recipients Average monthly benefits

(dollars) Number of recipients

Total Aged Blind Disabled Total Aged Blind Disabled With

OASDI a Aged 65 or older

All areas b 6,987,845 1,211,167 75,924 5,700,754 461 352 473 484 2,441,374 1,977,610

Arizona 94,630 13,210 934 80,486 438 296 427 461 30,436 22,850

AZ8 9,597 1,388 109 8,100 416 295 422 437 3,279 2,158

Elderly and estimated dependence on Social Security (over 65) (over 65)

Census 2000 SS more than SS more than

Total 50-64 % 50-64 65 and over

% 65 & over

50% of income

% of tot pop

90% of income

% of tot pop

AZ8 641,329 107,451 16.8% 107,640 16.8% 69,966 11%

35,521 6%

Educational Attainment: Percent of People 25 Years and Over Who Have Completed High School: US Census 2000: 80.4 Arizona Census 2000: 81 AZ 8: 88.5 Percent of People 25 Years and Over Who Have Completed a Bachelor's Degree: US Census 2000: 24.4 Arizona Census 2000: 23.5 AZ 8: 30.6

NAEP Reading Grade 4 2005 Basic & above

Proficient & above

US 63% 30% Arizona 52% 24%

NAEP Reading Grade 8 2005 Basic & above

Proficient & above

US 71% 29% Arizona 65% 23%

NAEP Mathematics Grade 4 2005 Basic & above

Proficient & above

US 79% 35% Arizona 70% 28%

NAEP Mathematics Grade 8 2005 Basic & above

Proficient & above

US 68% 29% Arizona 64% 26%

Elementary & Secondary Education Finance 2002-3 US avg Arizona Fed.Rev.- Subtotal $ 735,606,062 $ 839,277,605 Total Expenditures for Elem & 2ndary Ed

$ 8,690,171,765 $ 6,784,859,369

Fed Rev as % of Total Expenditure

8.5% 12.4%

Total Students (Fall 2003) 951,778 1,012,068 Fed Rev per student $ 773 $ 829 Total Expenditure per student $ 9,130 $ 6,704

Trends in College Cost and Aid (College Board) Change

constant 2004 dollars 94-5 to 99-0 99-0 to 04-5 94-5 to 04-5

1994-95 1999-00 2004-05

Public 4yr tuition/fee $3,407 $3,766 $5,132 10.5% 36.3% 50.6%

Public 4yr tuition/fee/room/bd $8,338 $9,051 $11,354 8.6% 25.4% 36.2% Private 4yr tuition/fee $14,761 $17,384 $20,082 17.8% 15.5% 36.0%

Private 4yr tuition/fee/rm/bd $20,780 $24,057 $27,516 15.8% 14.4% 32.4%

Grant Aid per FTE $2,965 $3,721 $4,479 25.5% 20.4% 51.1%

Loans per FTE $3,204 $3,856 $4,916 20.3% 27.5% 53.4%

Avg aid per FTE $6,261 $8,167 $10,119 30.4% 23.9% 61.6%

Grant Aid per FTE/ public t/f/r/b 36% 41% 39% 15.6% -4.0% 10.9%

Grant aid per FTE/ private t/f/r/b 14% 15% 16% 8.4% 5.2% 14.1%

Avg Aid per FTE/ public t/f/r/b 75% 90% 89% 20.2% -1.2% 18.7%

Avg aid per FTE/ private t/f/r/b 30% 34% 37% 12.7% 8.3% 22.1% Tuition/fees by Coll. Board region 94–95 99–00 04–05 10 yr $ 10 yr % National change change 4-yr public $3,407 $3,766 $5,132 $1,725 51%4-yr private $14,761 $17,384 $20,082 $5,321 36%West 4-yr public $3,135 $3,002 $4,130 $995 32%4-yr private $14,567 $16,912 $19,998 $5,431 37%

2005 Federal aid per undergrad

Arizona Fed Postsecondary Education Programs

$ 412,537,128

Total Fall Enrollment - Undergraduate 410,416 Fed aid per undergrad $ 1,005

Corporate Taxes 2001-3 Change in pre-tax corporate profits, 2001-3 +26%Change in corporate tax payments, 2001-3 -21%Nominal corporate tax rate, 2001-3 35%Average effective corporate tax rate, 2001* 21.4%Average effective corporate tax rate, 2002-3 17.2%Average effective corporate tax rate, 2001-3 18.4%

Effective Corporate Tax Rates for 275 Corporations by Industry, 2001–03

($-millions) Three-Year Totals 2003 2001 Industry & Company Profit Tax Rate Profit Tax Rate Profit Tax Rate Aerospace & defense $17,684 $285 1.6% $4,448 $–1,337 –30.0% $6,754 $893 13.20% Transportation 14,309 619 4.3% 4,612 78 1.7% 4,551 372 8.20% Industrial and farm equipment 6,489 406 6.2% 2,007 78 3.9% 2,488 351 14.10% Telecommunications 73,203 5,465 7.5% 22,531 507 2.3% 26,424 5,718 21.60% Electronics, electrical equipment 47,023 5,095 10.8% 13,958 1,773 12.7% 17,002 2,922 17.2% Petroleum & pipelines 42,530 5,652 13.3% 19,613 2,603 13.3% 15,065 2,609 17.3% Miscellaneous services 61,378 8,855 14.4% 23,950 2,702 11.3% 16,861 3,111 18.4% Utilities, gas and electric 53,794 7,767 14.4% 18,229 354 1.9% 18,211 5,191 28.5% Computers, office equip, software, data 74,904 11,949 16.0% 29,927 4,987 16.7% 22,838 3,127 13.7% Metals & metal products 7,814 1,362 17.4% 2,986 305 10.2% 2,180 463 21.2% Financial 285,589 56,222 19.7% 117,802 22,486 19.1% 79,456 16,262 20.5% Chemicals 5,424 1,129 20.8% 1,780 402 22.6% 1,763 351 19.9% Pharmaceuticals & medical products 71,010 15,339 21.6% 25,977 5,561 21.4% 20,819 4,437 21.3% Miscellaneous manufacturing 27,319 6,043 22.1% 10,068 2,345 23.3% 8,053 2,026 25.2% Health care 25,432 5,674 22.3% 11,468 2,614 22.8% 6,022 1,213 20.1% Publishing, printing 11,103 2,551 23.0% 4,488 1,088 24.2% 2,742 656 23.9% Motor vehicles and parts 6,097 1,418 23.3% 2,287 456 19.9% 1,630 411 25.2% Food & beverages & tobacco 74,024 17,589 23.8% 23,916 5,786 24.2% 23,166 5,829 25.2% Household & personal products 19,354 4,688 24.2% 7,485 2,085 27.9% 5,241 1,327 25.3% Retail & wholesale trade 132,558 36,692 27.7% 51,741 13,877 26.8% 36,597 10,598 29.0% ALL INDUSTRIES $1,057,038 $194,799 18.4% $399,274 $68,749 17.2% $317,861 $67,866 21.4% * (all "effective tax rates" above are from CTJ/ITEP survey of 275 profitable Fortune 500 corporations, see reference in sources, below)

Top 25 Corporate Tax Break Recipients, 2001-03 ($-mill.)

Rank Company Pretax Profits

Tax Breaks

Breaks cut taxes by

1 General Electric $36,809 9,481 –74%

2 SBC Communications 30,321 9,032 –85%

3 Citigroup 42,968 4,626 –31% 4 IBM 13,935 4,617 –95% 5 Microsoft 29,455 4,599 –45% 6 AT&T 13,453 4,572 –97% 7 ExxonMobil 21,388 4,268 –57% 8 Verizon 12,264 4,234 –99% 9 JPMorgan Chase 10,885 3,929 –103%

10 Pfizer 14,517 3,889 –77% 11 Altria (Philip Morris) 29,192 3,341 –33% 12 Wachovia 12,846 3,259 –72% 13 Boeing 5,688 3,058 –154% 14 Bank of America 38,574 2,959 –22% 15 Time Warner 6,229 2,637 –121% 16 Wells Fargo 23,885 2,459 –29% 17 ConocoPhillips 7,906 1,985 –72% 18 Intel 9,895 1,972 –57% 19 Merrill Lynch 8,893 1,966 –63% 20 Prudential Financial 2,264 1,838 –232% 21 Viacom 9,523 1,812 –54% 22 United Technologies 5,155 1,750 –97% 23 BellSouth 12,663 1,632 –37% 24 Allstate 6,396 1,631 –73% 25 American Express 7,282 1,541 –60%

Total these 25 $412,387 $ 87,089 –60%

All 275 companies $1,057,038 $ 175,164 –47%

US deaths and est. wounded in Iraq for Arizona as of 2/28/06

Deaths as of 2/28/06

share of deaths

# of total wounded (est. for state)

# of badly wounded * (est. for state)

US 2296 100 16824 7777

Arizona 54 2.4% 396 183

(as of 2/13/06) (as of 2/13/06) *badly wounded = did not return to duty in 72 hours

Iraq deaths in AZ8, as of 1/20/06 Total City Name Rank Date

AZ8 11 Cochise Byrd, Thomas H. Specialist 15-Oct-05

Douglas Campoy, Isaac Specialist 28-Oct-03

Sierra Vista Merila, Michael M. Specialist 16-Feb-04

Tucson* Huff, Sam W. Private 1st Class 18-Apr-05

Tucson Hunt Jr., Kenneth E. Master Sergeant 12-Oct-05

Tucson Cataudella, Sean K. Sergeant 30-Aug-03

Tucson Zurheide Jr., Robert Paul Lance Corporal 12-Apr-04

Tucson Lucero, Joshua E. Lance Corporal 27-Nov-04

Tucson Time, Tina Safaira Sergeant 13-Dec-04

Tucson Unruh, Robert Oliver Specialist 25-Sep-04

Tucson Lawrence, Jeffrey D. Corporal 6-Jul-04 Financial Cost of Iraq War Total Per U.S. person US mil to date $173,000,000,000 $ 583.65 Cong approp to date $251,000,000,000 $ 846.80 CBO 10 year projection $481,000,000,000 $ 1,622.75 Stiglitz low end (10yr) $1,000,000,000,000 $ 3,373.70 Stiglitz high (10yr) $2,000,000,000,000 $ 6,747.40

Cost of War by Area Share of war costs, dollars

Area

Population, Census 2000

% of US US mil to date

Cong approp to date CBO 10 yr Stiglitz low 10 yr Stiglitz high 10 yr

Arizona 5,130,632 1.82 3,153,980,970 4,576,007,072 8,769,160,962 18,231,103,871 36,462,207,743

AZ8 641,329 0.23 394,247,621 572,000,884 1,096,145,120 2,278,887,984 4,557,775,968

Recent Election Results: 2004 General Election - Arizona Secretary of State

ANDERSON

BACAL

KOLBE

County LBT

DEM

REP Totals

Cochise 2,140 15,679 25,189 43,008Pima 8,079 91,888 153,168 253,135Pinal 103 1,490 3,509 5,102

Santa Cruz 121 906 1,497 2,524

Totals 10,443 109,963 183,363 303,769

Percentages 3.40% 36.20% 60.40%

2002 General Election - Arizona Secretary of State

County DORRANCE*

DUARTE KOLBE

RYAN NONE LBT REP DEM

Totals

Cochise 10 1,231 16,921 9,286 27,448Pima 18 4,815 106,622 56,500 167,955Pinal 0 33 2,318 960 3,311Santa Cruz 0 63 1,069 582 1,714Totals 28 6,142 126,930 67,328 200,428Percentages 0.00% 3.10% 63.30% 33.60%

Campaign Finance: 2006 RACE: ARIZONA DISTRICT 8 Candidates: Gabrielle Giffords (D) Randy Graf (R) Jeff Latas (D) Francine Shacter (D) Eva K. Bacal (D) Tim Sultan (D) Patty Weiss (D) Mike Jenkins (R) Alex Rodriguez (D) Sector Total Randy Graf (R) Construction $500

Defense $300

Finance/Insur/RealEst $3,000

Lawyers & Lobbyists $500

Misc Business $1,000

Other $10,300

Top Industries Randy Graf (R) Retired $10,300

Real Estate $3,000

Recreation/Live Entertainment $1,000

Lawyers/Law Firms $500

General Contractors $500

Defense Aerospace $300

Top Contributors Randy Graf (R) Icoding Technology $2,000

Stae of Arizona $1,100

Armstrong & Wickliff $1,000

Premier Properties $1,000

Robson Communities $1,000

2004 RACE: ARIZONA DISTRICT 8 Sector Total Eva K. Bacal (D) Communic/Electronics $2,000

Construction $800

Finance/Insur/RealEst $12,300

Health $1,750

Lawyers & Lobbyists $6,400

Misc Business $2,000

Labor $2,800

Ideology/Single-Issue $5,000

Other $14,600

Top Industries Eva K. Bacal (D) Retired $12,700

Lawyers/Law Firms $6,400

Misc Finance $6,300

Real Estate $6,000

Democratic/Liberal $3,000

Transportation Unions $2,500

Candidate Committees $2,000

Printing & Publishing $2,000

Misc Services $2,000

Health Professionals $1,550

General Contractors $800

Civil Servants/Public Officials $500

Other $500

Non-Profit Institutions $500

Education $400

Public Sector Unions $300

Hospitals/Nursing Homes $200

Top Contributors Eva K. Bacal (D) Pederson Group $4,000

National Cmte for an Effective Congress $3,000

Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers $2,500

A Whole Lot of People for Grijalva $2,000

Baker & McKenzie $2,000

Beatty Realty $2,000

Pioneer Pest Control $2,000

Hirsh & Rogers $1,250

Karp Heurlin & Weiss $1,000

The data for this report were prepared by John Schmitt and Robert Naiman with the assistance of Dean Baker. Sources: For Reading and Math scores: “The Nation’s Report Card: Reading 2005,” National Assessment of Educational Progress, http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/pdf/main2005/2006451.pdf and “The Nation’s Report Card: Mathematics 2005,” National Assessment of Educational Progress, http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/pdf/main2005/2006453.pdf. (See Excel spreadsheet: education_by_state) For Elementary & Secondary Education Finance and number of students: State Education Data Profiles, National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education, nces.ed.gov, from "National Public Education Financial Survey," 2002-3 and 2003-4. (See Excel spreadsheet: education_by_state) For higher education costs and student aid: “Trends in College Pricing: 2004,” College Board, http://www.collegeboard.com/prod_downloads/press/cost04/041264TrendsPricing2004_FINAL.pdf and “Trends in Student Aid: 2005,” College Board, http://www.collegeboard.com/prod_downloads/press/cost05/trends_aid_05.pdf (See Excel spreadsheet: education_by_state) For federal spending on higher education: Fiscal Year 2001-2007 State Tables for the U.S. Department of Education, U.S. Department of Education, http://www.ed.gov/about/overview/budget/statetables/index.html (See Excel spreadsheet: education_by_state) For Undergraduate Enrollment: For Elementary & Secondary Education Finance and number of students: State Education Data Profiles, National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education, nces.ed.gov, from Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) 2004-5, http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/. (See Excel spreadsheet: education_by_state) For Child Poverty by State: US Census Bureau, Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates, http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/saipe/tables.html, accessed, February 21, 2006. (See Excel spreadsheet: state_child_poverty) For Poverty rates: Data for 1999-2000 from: US Census Bureau, Poverty in the United States: 2001, Report P60-219, Table 4, p. 10, September 2002. Data for 2003- 2004: from US Census Bureau, Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance in the United States: 2004, Table 10, p. 25, August 2005. (See Excel spreadsheet: state_poverty_rates) For Health and Pension Coverage: CEPR analysis of March CPS data, 1980-2005. (See Excel spreadsheet: districts_health_pensions) For Wage Distribution: Analysis of CEPR extracts of the Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotation Group. (See Excel spreadsheet: state_wage_dist) For Campaign Finance: “Congressional Races,” Center for Responsive Politics, http://opensecrets.org.

Cost of Iraq War: For deaths by state and national wounded: “Iraq Coalition Casualty Count” http://icasualties.org/oif/, “Honor the Fallen,” http://www.militarycity.com/valor/honor.html (US military press), and CEPR corrections based on press reports. (There is a map of deaths by hometown through October 26 at http://www.militarycity.com/2000casualties/kia_map.php.) Wounded by state estimated by assigning to each state the same proportion of wounded as their proportion of deaths. Deaths assigned to Congressional District if a substantial part of soldier’s hometown is in the Congressional District. Split cities are marked with an asterisk in the list of deaths. For Congressional appropriations, “The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan and Enhanced Base Security Since 9/11,” Amy Belasco, Congressional Research Service, October 7, 2005. (The National Priorities Project has a website where one can calculate the cost of war by state using the CRS $251 billion figure for Congressional appropriations; one can compare the cost in terms of forgone expenditures, like children’s health care. http://costofwar.com). For Stiglitz estimates: “The Economic Costs of the Iraq War,” Linda Bilmes and Joseph Stiglitz, January 2006, http://www2.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/jstiglitz/Cost_of_War_in_Iraq.pdf. They try to estimate other costs besides direct appropriations, such as the cost of long-term health care for disabled veterans. For state population numbers: U.S. Census, http://fastfacts.census.gov. (See Excel spreadsheet: cost_of_Iraq_war) For Corporate Taxes: “Corporate Income Taxes in the Bush Years,” Robert S. McIntyre, Citizens for Tax Justice, T.D. Coo Nguyen, Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, September 2004, http://www.ctj.org/corpfed04an.pdf. (See Excel spreadsheet: corporate_taxes) For Social Security Beneficiaries: Congressional Statistics, December 2004 (released June 2005), Social Security Online, Office of Policy Data, Social Security Administration, http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/factsheets/cong_stats/. Average monthly benefits calculated by dividing total monthly benefits by number of recipients in each category. For elderly population: “Fast Facts for Congress,” Census 2000, http://fastfacts.census.gov. For estimates of elderly population dependent on Social Security for a particular share of income: CEPR estimate using proportions for national population. (See Excel spreadsheet: social_security) For Bankruptcy Filing Rates by County and State: “Regional Economic Conditions (RECON),” FDIC, http://www2.fdic.gov/recon/. CD estimates for filing rates constructed by weighted average of county filing rates.For absolute number of bankruptcies by state, see: Annual Business and Non-business Filings by State (2000-2004), American Bankruptcy Institute http://www.abiworld.org/ContentManagement/ContentDisplay.cfm?ContentID=17661 (See Excel spreadsheet: bankruptcy) For Employment and Wages: CEPR calculations from Bureau of Labor Statistics Data, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, www.bls.gov. CD estimates are constructed from county data by weighting by population.