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Economic analysis of

coexistence practices in the EU

Koen.Dillen@ec.europa.eu

2April 21, 2023

Coexistence: an interplay between incentives

April 21, 2023 3

Coexistence: an interplay between incentives

April 21, 2023 4

• Coexistence measures should not tip over the balance

• Freedom of choice crucial

• Coexistence regulations should be designed proportionally to the aim of achieving coexistence

• Large isolation distances will tip over the balance

5April 21, 2023

Farm level analysis feeds PRICE project

6April 21, 2023

• Farm survey

• Econometric estimation

• Economic welfare model

Tools

7April 21, 2023

Farm survey: Ideas behind the design

• Broad geographical coverage

• Ex post and ex ante assessment of coexistence measures

• Focusing on both adopters and their non-adopting neighbours

• Understanding the impact of coexistence on different farmers:

• Small farmers <-> big farmers• Adopters <-> non-adopters• ... 8April 21, 2023

Farmer survey• General characteristics of farmers and

households

• Farmer knowledge, attitudes and perceptions towards novel technologies

• Understanding current coexistence measures

• Discover novel strategies/practical implementation

• Eliciting the perceptions/burden of farmers of commonly discussed coexistence measures

9April 21, 2023

Farmer survey: Choice experiment

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• Hypothetical situation

• Choice between scenarios

• Attributes remain the same but levels change

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12April 21, 2023

Spain

Target crop: maize

Target sample unit:1. Farmers cultivating Bt maize2. Farmers using conventional varieties in the direct vicinity of Bt

maize farmers

Bt maize (2011) total maize (2009) % adoption

Andalucia 5244 23487 22% Aragon 41368 66107 63% Castilla-La Mancha 5816 32108 18% Cataluna 29632 38179 78% Extremadura 10567 43069 25% Islas Baleares 51 525 10% La Rioja 21 747 3% Madrid 418 5850 7% Navarra 4095 12546 33% Valencia 128 758 17% Castilla y Leon 6 103299 0%

Universe

Targeting last sample unit

No list of Bt maize farmers exist, available data based on amount of seed sold in the different provinces

Snowball approach will be used1.Stratified sample on the level of adoption in different regions

• Via Agricultural Chambers• Via Cooperative• Selling points

2. Identified Bt maize farmer leads to neighbouring non-Bt maize farmers

Sample size

The sample size will be 1000 farmers

• Goal of reaching 50% Bt maize and 50% non Bt maize in final sample

• Distributed over regions depending on adoption level

Survey implementation

1. Pre-pilot

2. Revisions

3. Pilot survey 160 farmers

4. Review of questionnaire

5. Final survey

Technische Universität München

Germany

• GM cultivation = outlawed• GM cultivation 2005-2008 mainly maize• # farmers that cultivated GM maize = ±90• Obligatory registration @ government

Technische Universität München

Sampling strategy

• The registration office = PRICE partner

• They sent out a letter with 2 requests:– A request to participate– Addresses of possibly interested neighbors (non GM)

• The farmers get a response card that is sent back directly to us

• We approach the farmers for an interview (face-to-face)

Technische Universität München

Current status

• Letters have been sent

• A reminder has been sent

• We work with InnoPlanta (farmer organisation) to increase the response rate further

• We hope to increase the number of neighbours by asking the farmers on the phone/spot

Technische Universität München

Response rate overview

Number of letters sent 90

Number of responses 31

Positive responses 20

Additional positives due to Innoplanta and previous research

7

Expected further positives due to Innoplanta

5

Positive GM Total (expected) 32

Neighbour addresses (so far) 9

Technische Universität München

Interviews

• Start: next week• Interviews by German assistants• Let’s wait and see

• Farm survey

• Econometric estimation

• Economic welfare model

Further steps

33April 21, 2023

• Farm survey

• Econometric estimation

• Assess the determinants of production choices• Understand the practical implementation and consequences of

coexistence• Put a value on the burden of different coexistence measures• Estimate adoption of GM crops

Further steps

34April 21, 2023

• Farm survey

• Econometric estimation

• Economic welfare model

• Assess the welfare effect of the predicted adoption on the countries under research

Further steps

35April 21, 2023

THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION

Koen.dillen@ec.europa.eu

36April 21, 2023

• Any concepts that are not clear?•Other impacts of coexistence measures we are not covering?•Questions on coexistence that not yet have been addressed?