成長的極限與未來的省思

陳國華淡江大學未來學研究所副教授兼

通識與核心課程中心主任

your story of the future

Have you purchased a used future?

Disowned future creates its opposite

人生驚鴻一瞥

Overshoot - and Collapse?

Since the late 1980s the earth’s people have been using more of the planet’s resources each year than could be regenerated … the ecological footprint of global society has overshot the earth’s capacity to provide … The potential consequences of this overshoot are profoundly dangerous. (p 3)

Meadows: Meadows: Limits to Growth Limits to Growth 30 Year Update30 Year Update, , EarthscanEarthscan, , 20042004

Invisible world

Visible Exteriors

Actions, events, behaviours, physical infrastructure, technology, world system and other empirical phenomena

Social and Personal Interiors

Worldviews, languages, cultures,deep assumptions, values, ideas, beliefs, thoughts, social legitimations, conflicts,power and exploitation, fundamentalquestions of meaning, purpose

Surface and Depth: Visible and Invisible

Limits to Growth + 30 years data

On all key parameters [population, resource use, industrial output,agricultural production and pollution] we are tracking the “standard run” which leads to economic and ecological collapse before 2050. “No-one has to change. Survival is optional”

我們如何造成無法永續發展的未來?過快的人口成長

每人消費過度成長

耗用礦產資源，如石油

過度耗用水產、森林、水資源，破壞氣候狀況、導致失去生物多樣性，立基於成長的經濟型態

愈來愈嚴重的不平等

崇尚唯物主義

NOWHERE TO GO

The underlying drivers of unsustainable development

Population growthConsumption per personSocietal values

人口成長－世界人口數量

23456789

1011

年份 1950 60 70 80 90 2000 10 20 30 40 50

人口

數〈

十億

〉

高

中

低

12

資料來源：United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision.

假如，有一個池塘長了些睡蓮。這些睡蓮每天以一倍的速度擴張。到了第三十天時，整個水塘都佈滿了睡蓮。請問它長滿半個池塘是在哪一天？

大量油田的探勘

The Global Footprint

Who is Connected?

貧窮、不平等的狀況益趨嚴重

有11億人每天所得少於美金一元，其中七成居住在農村地區

過去十年不平等狀況仍持續增加

處於營養不良狀況的人數從97–99年到2000–02之間，增加了3700萬人非洲撒哈拉沙漠以南地區的每人可分配糧食減少

有10億人缺乏乾淨水源可用，26億人生活在不乾淨的環境中

有10-20億人受到水源缺乏問題的影響Millennium Assessment Report 2005

There are alternative futures

FUTURES LANDSCAPEMAPPING

VisionStrategy

Scenarios

對未來產生影響的前瞻性思考

權威專家的預測將成為自我實現預言

權威專家的警告可避免或減輕逐漸浮現的危機

我們的價值觀會影響我們的所見所聞以及反應

A fundamental point

The future is not somewhere we are going, it is something we are creatingMany possible futuresWe should be trying to shape a sustainable future

對於未來三種可能的反應

否認: 不要改變，並且嘗試證明改變是不需要的行為 [John Kenneth Galbraith]逃避: “不要小看忽視問題的力量”[Woody Allen]對改變負責: 一小群人就可以改變整個世界 [Margaret Mead]

Transforming the future

Creating Alternative Futures

Scenario AScenario B

Scenario C Scenario D

Driver 2

Driver 1

Councilor futures

Good old daysProblem solverPretend to stay in powerGatekeeper of the new

GLOBAL NICHE

LOCALISM

BATTLE AGAINST THE GLOBAL

GO GLOBAL

TRIPLE BOTTOM LINE

EnvironmentalEnvironmental

CompetitiveCompetitive

LiveableLiveable

HealthyEfficient

Just

SustainabilitySustainability is about living within our means. It is about managing our consumption of resources and balancing

environmental, economic and social outcomes. It means improving our quality of life, but making that improvement without leaving a burden on the future generations.

Looking after our

EnvironmentEnvironmental Sustainability is about reducing our impact on the environment by protecting our air, water and land, our native flora and fauna. It means reducing the load on our natural resources, such as water and fuels for energy, and decreasing our production of waste.

Supporting our EconomyCompetitiveness is about supporting Sydney's role as a Global city, and ensuring our city's long term economic prosperity. It means providing quality infrastructure and services to service our jobs and the economy, and supporting urban centres

A Better Place to Live

Liveability is about making Sydney a better place to live. It means being able to walk to your corner shop, local school, park or bus stop, as well as providing us with a choice of housing that meets our needs.

SustainableSustainable

Vision for a Sustainable City

永續發展的社群意志:讓人口與佔地面積保持穩定

使用可再生資源來創造動態的、具彈性的經濟發展

嘗試創造零浪費的社會

大量減少碳排放

進行必要的生物多樣性培育工作

對增進平等付出一份心力

進行「任務導向」的嚴格評估進行艱難的決策

全新的價值觀從支配自然資源到擁有生態敏感度

用注重生活品質取代消費主義

個人主義 -> 人類團結一致

HEALTHIER futuresHumaneEcocentric ApproachLong Time HorizonInformedEfficientResourced

烏托邦?1800: 結束奴隸制度1900: 女性選舉權1989: 柏林圍牆消失，南非種族隔離政策消失，個人電腦與行動電話問世

幾乎包含所有現代化生活的特色

A riverfront highway…

Portland Harbor Drive, 1950s Steven Ames Planning • 2002

…is removed

Harbor Drive Demolition, 1974 Steven Ames Planning • 2002

A riverfront park is born

Photo: Portland Parks; Steven Ames Planning • 2002Waterfront Park 2002

47

In My Name http://www.youtube.com/watch?

v=hNe_opi0KjM

a new story

成長的極限與未來的省思your story of the future Have you purchased a used future?Disowned future creates its oppositeOvershoot - and Collapse?我們如何造成無法永續發展的未來?NOWHERE TO GOThe underlying drivers of unsustainable development人口成長－世界人口數量假如，有一個池塘長了些睡蓮。這些睡蓮每天以一倍的速度擴張。到了第三十天時，整個水塘都佈滿了睡蓮。請問它長滿半個池塘是在哪一天？大量油田的探勘The Global FootprintWho is Connected?貧窮、不平等的狀況益趨嚴重There are alternative futures�對未來產生影響的前瞻性思考A fundamental point 對於未來三種可能的反應 Transforming the futureCreating Alternative FuturesCouncilor futures TRIPLE BOTTOM LINE永續發展的社群意志:全新的價值觀 HEALTHIER futures烏托邦?A riverfront highway……is removedA riverfront park is born