When Experimental and Computational Research Meet:The Participatory Extension Module v2.0Richard O. Legendi, Tams Mhr, Lszl Gulys,Rajmund Bocsi, Vilmos Kozma, Peter Rieger

{rlegendi, tmahr, lgulyas, rbocsi, vkozma, prieger}@aitia.ai

AITIA International, Inc.

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union, Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under grant agreement no. CRISIS-ICT-2011-288501.

OutlineBackgroundThe CRISIS project

Demo

Usage

GUI editor

Future works

BackgroundTraditional modeling approaches challenged
(in economics and elsewhere)

The concept of rationality in question

The wilderness of irrationality

Behavioral Economics attemps to collect empirical data on human (economic) behavior

Recognized by Vernon Smith's Nobel prize

Early / traditional behavioral experiments are carried out in small groups and with simple economies

Background, cont.Experiments with a large number of participants is hard to handle

Programming complex market behavior (experimental scenarios)

With complex agents

With complex market interactions

The technique of agent-based simulations lends itself naturally

Some agents of an ABM are controlled by human subjects

Background, cont. 2Agent-based models may also benefit from
participatory experiments

Sensitivity of system behavior can be tested

Especially in case of learning / evolving agents
(prone to co-evolve, converge too early)

E.g., human agents in the SFI Artificial Stock Market

Empirical data about individiual behavior

Data collection, calibration, etc.

Background: The CRISIS ProjectThe CRISIS project addresses building a next generation macroeconomic and financial system policymaking model: a bottom-up agent-based simulation that fully accounts for the heterogeneity of households, firms, and government actors. The model will incorporate the latest evidence from behavioral economics in portraying agent behavior, and the CRISIS team will also collect new data on agent decision making using experimental economics techniques. While any model must make simplifying assumptions about human behavior, the CRISIS model will be significantly more realistic in its portrayal of relevant agent behavior than the current generation of policymaking models.

Crisis project description: https://www.crisis-economics.eu/

Harmonized library, Game, policymaking model

Web-based Game(Participatory Experiments)Economic Simulator(Cloud-Based Parameter Sweep Execution)ModellingFramework

Models

PET v2.0AITIA's PET Software since 2004Participatory Extension

Generalized components behind the CRISIS Game

Modern, scalable infrastructurePrevious version is 5+ years old

Components may run on (several) different machines

Software already available for any experiment

PET v2.0Can be used:LocallyLaboratory experiments

Policy makers (scenario analysis with a proper model)

On any webserver to run constantlyGather data (scores from model and all user actions replay)

Dissemination

Questionnaire moduleE.g., Verify if subjects understood the rules, etc.

Demo

The El Farol Bar ProblemAgents are researchers (N=100)

They visit a popular but small bar in Santa FIf attendance > 60 (overcrowded)Who hasnt come

If attendance