eastern region aviation overview fred mcmullen regional aviation meteorologist 631-244-0125...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Eastern Region Aviation Overview Fred McMullen Regional Aviation Meteorologist 631-244-0125 Fred.McMullen@noaa.gov Fred McMullen Regional](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022033106/5697bff91a28abf838cbf848/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Eastern Region Aviation OverviewEastern Region Aviation Overview
Fred McMullen
Regional Aviation Meteorologist
www.erh.noaa.gov
631-244-0125
Fred McMullen
Regional Aviation Meteorologist
www.erh.noaa.gov
631-244-0125
![Page 2: Eastern Region Aviation Overview Fred McMullen Regional Aviation Meteorologist 631-244-0125 Fred.McMullen@noaa.gov Fred McMullen Regional](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022033106/5697bff91a28abf838cbf848/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
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OrganizationOrganization
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CWSUs
Full Support of NAS
VAACs and
MWOs
WFOs
NCEP/AWC
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Eastern Region BreakdownEastern Region Breakdown
![Page 4: Eastern Region Aviation Overview Fred McMullen Regional Aviation Meteorologist 631-244-0125 Fred.McMullen@noaa.gov Fred McMullen Regional](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022033106/5697bff91a28abf838cbf848/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Central Weather Service UnitsCentral Weather Service Units
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Eastern Region BreakdownEastern Region Breakdown
• 23 Weather Forecast Offices
• 4 Central Weather Service Units
• 133 TAFs four times daily
• 11 Airports are 30 hour TAFs
• Site Specific Amendment Criteria at
– BWI, CLT, DCI, EKN, and IAD
• 23 Weather Forecast Offices
• 4 Central Weather Service Units
• 133 TAFs four times daily
• 11 Airports are 30 hour TAFs
• Site Specific Amendment Criteria at
– BWI, CLT, DCI, EKN, and IAD
![Page 6: Eastern Region Aviation Overview Fred McMullen Regional Aviation Meteorologist 631-244-0125 Fred.McMullen@noaa.gov Fred McMullen Regional](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022033106/5697bff91a28abf838cbf848/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Eastern Region BreakdownEastern Region Breakdown
• Airport Weather Warnings issued at 7 locations
– ALY, BOS, BUF, CAE, ILM, MYR, PVD
• Criteria varies from airport to airport:
– Surface wind gusts >40 knots
– Onset of freezing rain
– Cloud to ground lightning within 5 miles of the airport
– Thunderstorms with >½ inch hail
– Onset of heavy snow
• Airport Weather Warnings issued at 7 locations
– ALY, BOS, BUF, CAE, ILM, MYR, PVD
• Criteria varies from airport to airport:
– Surface wind gusts >40 knots
– Onset of freezing rain
– Cloud to ground lightning within 5 miles of the airport
– Thunderstorms with >½ inch hail
– Onset of heavy snow
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Regional Aviation DutiesRegional Aviation Duties• Liaison between NWS Headquarters and Weather Forecast
Offices
• Liaison between NWS Headquarters and Central Weather Service Units
• Review feedback between WFOs and Aviation community
• Collaborate with FAA, other NWS Regional Headquarters, and Aviation Weather Center
• Formulate Policy
• Quality Control
• Coordinate Sub-Regional Aviation Workshops
• Facilitate establishment of new TAFs and Airport Weather Warnings
• Improve Aviation Verification Numbers
• Liaison between NWS Headquarters and Weather Forecast Offices
• Liaison between NWS Headquarters and Central Weather Service Units
• Review feedback between WFOs and Aviation community
• Collaborate with FAA, other NWS Regional Headquarters, and Aviation Weather Center
• Formulate Policy
• Quality Control
• Coordinate Sub-Regional Aviation Workshops
• Facilitate establishment of new TAFs and Airport Weather Warnings
• Improve Aviation Verification Numbers
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CWSU ImprovementsCWSU Improvements• AWIPS Remote Display (ARD)
• AvnFPS TAF monitoring program
• Chat software
• Web recording software
• Conference calls with WFOs
• Work TAFs
• AWIPS Remote Display (ARD)
• AvnFPS TAF monitoring program
• Chat software
• Web recording software
• Conference calls with WFOs
• Work TAFs
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Collaboration = ConsistencyCollaboration = Consistency
• Daily conference calls between CWSU New York, WFOs New York City and Philadelphia.
• Preliminary TAFs generated and collaborated for Dulles and Boston between CWSUs and WFOs.
• CWSU New York and Atlanta daily conference calls with Delta Meteorologists
• Daily conference calls between CWSU New York, WFOs New York City and Philadelphia.
• Preliminary TAFs generated and collaborated for Dulles and Boston between CWSUs and WFOs.
• CWSU New York and Atlanta daily conference calls with Delta Meteorologists
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CWSU ZDC – WFO SterlingCWSU ZDC – WFO Sterling
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VerificationVerification
• NWS Goals FY 2009
– Probability of Detection (POD) 0.64
– False Alarm Rate (FAR) 0.36
• Eastern Region FY 2008
– POD 0.65
– FAR 0.33
• NWS Goals FY 2009
– Probability of Detection (POD) 0.64
– False Alarm Rate (FAR) 0.36
• Eastern Region FY 2008
– POD 0.65
– FAR 0.33
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Albany Aviation On DemandAlbany Aviation On Demand
• Near teal time feedback• Near teal time feedback
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Albany Aviation VerificationAlbany Aviation Verification
• Creates historical database
• Six hour verification
• Conduct research on specific events
• Daily backup
• Creates historical database
• Six hour verification
• Conduct research on specific events
• Daily backup
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VerificationVerification
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FutureFuture
New York City 2040?New York City 2040?
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Experimental Digital ServicesExperimental Digital Services• Ceiling Grids• Ceiling Grids
Click HereClick Here
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Digital Aviation Forecasts
Digital Aviation Forecasts
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Experimental Digital ServicesExperimental Digital Services
Visibility GridsVisibility Grids
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Weather Impacted Traffic Index(WITI)
Weather Impacted Traffic Index(WITI)
• CCFP
• TAF
• Metars
• Near real time verification of aviation forecast and impacts
• CCFP
• TAF
• Metars
• Near real time verification of aviation forecast and impacts
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-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Date
NAS Wx Index (NCWD/METAR), WITI-FA (4-hr Lookahead CCFP/TAF), and their "Delta", Last 30 Days
NWX (WITI)
WITI-FA 4hr
Delta
NAS Weather Index (WITI) vs. Combined WITI-FA and Delta (“forecast goodness”)
Negative delta = Under-forecast of traffic impact
Positive delta = Over-forecast of traffic impact
30-day period ending 11/12/2008
NWX = 100 is a “normally-impacted ” day
Delta > +/-50 may indicate a forecast “issue”
November 12, 2008 21
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-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Eastern Region TWITI and TWITI_FA, Normalized, Last 7 Days
Delta TWITI_FA
TWITI
TWITI_FA
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 0 1 2 3 4 5
AAR
Hour, Z
BOS, Nov 8, 2008 Arrival Rates
Actual arrivals
Arr rate based on METAR
Arr rate based on 4hr TAF
Scheduled arrivals
OEP Airports AnalysisOEP Airports Analysis
Under-forecast at BOS (actual ceilings, 600-700 Ft, lower than forecast ceilings, 1300-1500 Ft) – however, no impact on operations due to low traffic demand on a Sunday
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Terminal WITITerminal WITI