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Journal o Economic Literature 2009, 47:2, 373447http:www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jel.47.2.373

373

1. Aricas Needs and the Western Response

1.1 The Explosion o Interest in SavingArica

T W -

A.1 BP M T B

W E F D J2005 , A ,

.2 T B R A,

C W S AWilliam Easterly*

In the new millennium, the Western aid effort toward Africa has surged due to writ-ings by well-known economists, a celebrity mass advocacy campaign, and decisions byWestern leaders to make Africa a major foreign policy priority. This survey contraststhe predominant transformational approach (West comprehensively saves Africa) tooccasional swings to a marginal approach (West takes one small step at a time to helpindividual Africans). Evaluation of one step at a time initiatives is generally easier thanthat of transformational ones either through controlled experiments (although these havebeen oversold) or simple case studies where it is easier to attribute outcomes to actions.We see two themes emerge from the literature survey: (1) escalationas each successiveWestern transformational effort has yielded disappointing results (as judged at least bystylized facts, since again the econometrics are shaky), the response has been to try aneven more ambitious effort and (2) the cycle of ideasrather than a progressive testingand discarding of failed ideas, we see a cycle in aid ideas in many areas in Africa, withideas going out of fashion only to come back again later after some lapse long enough to forget the previous disappointing experience. Both escalation and cyclicality of ideas

are symptomatic of the lack of learning that seems to be characteristic of the transfor-mational approach. In contrast, the marginal approach has had some successes inimproving the well-being of individual Africans, such as the dramatic fall in mortality.

*E: N Y U NBER. I JEL , R G, , C B, A D, A H-, C K, T M, L P, VjR, N V W, NBER 2008 S I W M- I D - (!)

. I - RA, T Pz. A .

1 F , -S A A.

2 International Herald Tribune, F, J 28,2005, . 1.


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Journal o Economic Literature, Vol. XLVII (June 2009)374

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377Easterly: Can the West Save Arica?

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( ). S A j j - .

1.2 Poor Growth and Income Levels

W A - L A

A T x A - , .8

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F , A - ( ). A 2005, 50.4 A (380 ) W B x $1.25 PPP 1981. T

$0.73 (S C M R 2008).

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1.2

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0.2

Logbase2scale

Africa

Non-Africa developing

1950

1952

1954

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

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Figure 1. Ix P C I A O D N


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1950 2006, x = 1.0 1950 ( (x) = 0 1950).T A 195070, -A 1960.9 D - 1970, A -1990. T - , 2006 A 1973.

1.3 Poor Social Indicators

L x A ,

AIDS. I x (-

9 S - x A , N S A. I W A - ( ), W .

) every A ( 2).

T 1 - A . I z N A , N A . F , A 2535 , 7080

. A ,, x,

, - , AIDS -, , , H D Ix UN ( ). A D(2008) ( - G W P) , -

Figure 2. L Ex 2001

0 to 58 years58 to 74 years74 to 90 yearsNo data


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A . (D T z D).

1.4 Not Overdoing Negative Stereotypes

A A, -

x. S A j A -- . F x PC (2007, . 3) A x - , : , , (

TABLE 1Ranking of African Countries by Key International Indicators where Africa Does

Comparatively the Worst

V#

(T)

# A

(N)

# N

A

(K)

A

(N/T)

% N

A

(K/N)

I 130 44 35 34% 80%

P $1

99 28 23 28% 82%

P 19602003

113 44 34 39% 77%

L x 187 48 42 26% 88%

I 195 48 36 25% 75%

P 1549 HIV

149 38 32 26% 84%

P , 2003

148 44 31 30% 70%

L 122 34 21 28% 62%

HD Ix

177 44 36 25% 82%


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). C B G -: W, F, P & D F H A A. T - A ( ) AIDS- , W , j. T A - x .

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A , .

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, q - 1. U 1, A 39 N

, 45 -, 35

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A 2 , .) T -A- , , , -

A.10

10 T x x- A . AS I S 2007 - A j-. E 2008 M D G x A q .

TABLE 2The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse in Africa?

P A

A , 19652005 0.0001

P 1017 1999 0.0019

A , 19902005 0.0029

P , 2005 0.0053

P AIDS 2007 0.0020


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T z (NGO) x A -, -. A Ax W (1997) ( x) x. H NGO C- , , , .

x . O C . . . 1968 ( W 1997, . 144).11

11 D W (1997) B 1968, S 1973, C 1979, E 1984, S 1985,E 1987, S 1990 ( ), S1992, R 1994, Z 1996.

J . D W (1997, . 184)q S -

j- S 1992:

H j , P . I ,Y . T . . . j

[T j] , I .

1.5 Aid to Arica

1.5.1 Trends in Aid to Arica

T A - A ( 3). T

40,000,000,000

35,000,000,000

30,000,000,000

25,000,000,000

20,000,000,000

15,000,000,000

10,000,000,000

5,000,000,000

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2004

2002

2006

Figure 3. T F A A (C 2006 D)


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, A 1960 2006 $714 .

1.5.2 Aid Compared to Other Regions

S A

A . H, . A

- GDP ( N SA), A .H, , A

-A ( 4).

2. The Attempt to Boost AricanGrowth with Foreign Aid

W W -

A T W A q A x- A A , - .

Aid

toGrossNationalIncome(percent)

20

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Africa


1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2004

2002

Figure 4: A A I P


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T qq -. T q

W , .H , .

T W A j

W ( ) .T 1950 1960, , A

, B P A (

).

2.1. Theoretical Model o Poverty Traps

A A ,

.T x A , . T , X

y ( FX), y. T , y = (F X) F X = (y), . A -

( x) F X , , , , , , , , -, , , - , .12

12 S S (2005) C (2007).

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, F X , F X. T - -, -. I , , x, .


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A FX . M A q FX .

H, - 5 A

j - X ( - , z /).A, x X, . T FX X -

, X ( ) ( ).

H, F X, ,

x. F x, X -, - ( -, x), - . A,

Figure 5. P T A

Viciouscircle

Africa povertytrap

Richcountries

X

y

Log

Factor X

Log per capitaincome ratio tosubsistence

Escape poverty trapthrough one-shotincrease in income

Virtuouscircle

Escape povertytrap through one-shotincrease in X

Effect ofincome onfactor X(bold line)

Effect of Factor Xon income(dashed line)


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FX.

T ( SG ). I , q , . I HD , GDP

(=) - - . I , z . E 1950 1960 q -

q

F G. T F G (R1960 T G M H B.C A M. S 1966). T, .

A

( E 1999 ), , z- ( x), .C A x (S Dj, MJ. M, E V. S 2002

Figure 6. F Ex A P

One-shot increase inincome fails to escape poverty

Logy

LogX

Africa effect of incomeon FactorX

Rich country effectof income on Factor X


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W B; B C A2005; S 2005, 2008; C 2007). O q A.

T F G ( ) . E , - . I , - , -

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, Ax 39 A (C, AH, C P 2001).

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13 T 1950 1960 x .T x , A - - 1980, .

j ( ).T B P(R-R 1943). T - - F G

q (, x, K M. M, A S, R W. V 1989).

2.2 Empirical Evidence on Poverty Traps

2.2.1 General Sample

I , - . I was (O G 2005;G D N. W 2000), .

I .T x .K Rz 2007 - S- ( x , ).

A 5

z . T - j -, ( ).


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H, - F X . A z ( - ). E 2006 q -q .

2.2.2 Arica-Specic Poverty Trap

S A , , B B . T - ,

. C 2007 B B , .T B B end , - .

A A- x

F X y A . F x,A

, A . H, A A - ,

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- (C I x: I 196078 q q-.)

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A , B P .

2.3 Empirical Evidence on Aid andGrowth

T z ,

( ).

2.3.1 Most Widely Cited Results

T j .T -

, - z ( , , x - - ). P B 1996

z .


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B . B - C B D D2000 American Economic Review.14B D . H, , . H, ( S-W x, , ). T -

. H, - , U.S. ( MC C) .

W . B D B .C, , ( ) OLS , 2SLS ( j x ). A OLS , ( ) j . E

x

( ). F, E, RL, D R (2004) -q

14 A G S 1,384 B D.A C D 2004 509 . T (1,893) .

BD - OLS - , .15 T - AD W B B D -

, z W B - (Bj . 2006, . 5257).

2.3.2 Identication, Data Mining,Robustness Checks, and Magnitudes

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W , .F x, - ( E) I , , .

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x .16T x -,

15 T G S . I 474 A 2008.

16 E K (2000) z .


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. G is - z, , x z - . T , P C A ( -), .17

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M , - M ). T z - . T x- --M .

T , x .T ( q /GDP, , - , , ), - . C -

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S N. D, P A. J, J R. W. T 2005 145 100 145! T -. T ELR BD .

S -- - . T T G M 1960 x B P 1950 0.2 0.5, j .18 I , , ( ) , B P/TG . T z A q , A - . T

17 U -, - , .

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, ). T - , , IV ( ). T . T . T [.126, 0.047], 0.2 j.


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, A ( , -). G ( 1965) 10 GDP ( 4) z ( 1), B P [0.2,0.5] A 2 5 B P . A

, - z ( ) Bj (2007) A: { 1981 2001} I C, .19

3. Project Interventions

A A A ( , F X). A ,

j ! J -! J z! I

,

19 Bj IG, F. H R, N S (2007), , x z .H, W B (2002) , W B (T C A) - U.N. MC 2002.

F X ( X ) A ( ).

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) .W , W x j-X x, (.., - ), - - .

M j- , , - ( , ), . T -. I x x , 1938 -

A

B ( H ) 2005 U.N.D P - , 3. I A , - ,


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TABLE 3The Similarity of Old and New Recommendations for Technical Interventions in Africa

A

C A R

S, 1938 ( L H)

UN M Pj, 2005

( J S)

M {S E } q ,q -, . . . . . . . (. 1126)

T - , , - . . . . ( DDT ) (. x, 6, M )

H

W A ,

, . . . A V A (. 11221123)

C . . . q q . . . .

I . . . . . . M { } q . . . { } A (.3 H T F ,. 128, H T F )

S { } (. 962)

(. 107 H T )

S

z j . . . (. 1056)S ,

.(. 1063) T , .(. 1064)

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. (. 868, 876)

T - . . . q . . . q q j,

( . . .)(. 31, 111)

C

D A (. 10331052)

I (W S TF, . 105)


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. F x, A A,

3.1 Overall Record o Projects

3.1.1 Old Evidence rom Project Rates oReturn

B W , j . T x j, -

j ( ). I , - . T - x, j , ( H D M P 2008). L j . T WB (

W , W B 1992) W B j , - j ( j ). E , 59 j A -, 74

W B j.

3.1.2 New Evidence o RandomizedControlled Trials

T j . T - j - j j. T (

j ) - , . E j, j j z j .

A - -z . T - - ,

. T j -(Bj 2008; E D MK 2008).

B ,Bj () Making Aid Work (2007). T j -, - , .

T RE j. A L P q:

W B j

. T . C x, . . . (.., , x q-) (P 2008, . 119).


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A W B D , j (J L. B 2000,. ). A , RE - z j .

T RE j - . F, , RE . T -

, - . T q j - .20

S, RE - -. O , - - .U, . F, , - z - ,

q . S,

x , x . T, -

20 H, D (2009) , , j .

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D (2004) RE

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.

T RE , C RE (J A . 2002) C (


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A .). M, RE, NGO j, j. P 2008 -

( - x). A P (2008, . 57): z - z x (

) z .

P , D (2008, 2009) D R (-) RE

, x x -. (T - , , (, .., ) . I

- RHS .) NC (2007) RE q - , -

. F (. 238).

RE (.., D, G,K 2008) RE . H, , ,

( ) . T

RE ( A), j , - A A, .

T , , x (D2009). A RE (.., ,

), x ; X Y x, X

Y. R () RE - , , ( ) , -z .

T thatNGO j that , - . H, RE

D K (2008) - z .21 T j

21 S C CW : H , A -x E, D, K, J 31,2008, ://../_/2008/07/x..


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RE. I , . T x RE RE ( ) RE . D (2004) : P , , j, x - (. 345). I -

, -. R 2009 RE

, - . T , j RE - x (, , - ).

L, q j, x.

T RE , j , RE -

. RE

. T , - - .

T RE

( - ). T , .

T RE - j . T RE - ,

any x ( ). A -, x , . I , j , x. Bj (2007) x I - - I(, Bj, RE). Y

W B E S: F . . . . E , - W BS Bj x

W B . Bj: H - T - ( Bj 2007, . 77, 112).

I RE RE .D K (2008)


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: {RE } - ,{} - . J z z , -z -(. 117).

S, Bj (2007) q : S -

, . I RE RE

q - RE . E

x RE. S RE , RE (- ) . I - RE I .

3.2 General Equilibrium Eects

T

j . R G. Rj A S (2008) x

z -, j

z .I , I

j : - . N j , - q .

3.2.1 Problem o Fungibility

T z A, A ( )

B. I , B - A. A PR-R 1953, - . F x- A .Dj V S (2000) T Fz, S, M Z(1998) 100 . E

, , - j q .

3.2.2 Interaction with Incentives onImplementation

T -

. I RE j - x, j x. A R R J S (2005, . 2) :

W - x z ( NGO


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), ; - , , - () ( ). L , j , x - x .

I j - A ( ,

x system ).

W x, q x , - , , q , (D F P 1999). D z q ( x, W B WorldDevelopment Report 1980), - (W BWorld Development Report 2008 q ).

I , ( G, C, U, Tz 30 70

), , . S

- (F, J S.H, P 2000; P M W 2004).22

T RE . Nz C . (2006) B,E, I, I, P, U

19 - - 35 . E

. W

: 3,000 I ,

. T - (.., A , U, - ). T .T NGO - I q - , , 22 42 (D R H 2005).

W , j - x - j

x- x .

22 S (2005, 2008) A . S - . T

- . J Uz . (2002) Z . M C C . (2004) D S W W I.


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T RE , NGO . H, - , - RE IX

. W

. S , x -, - ,

. H, . F x, ( ) , - .

T - x WB (1981, 1988, 1994), - .23 T - , x, .T x .

K E M (2007) -

,

- ( ) , j . T ,

23 A BjP (2008).

.K M - j j . T

j, j

, K M j j - .

O , K M - x

, q

q S, q - j j-. F 100 , j - .24

F j j : x - -

. T

j

24 T x - , ( x,U C).


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j 1980 . T W B A - 198797, q WB A -. Y z z A H , (T M,G P, N

W 2008). T

.

3.3 International Collective Action onOutcomes Aected by Project Aid

A j U N , M D G(MDG) 2015 U.N. S 2000. T -, MDG - . T - , -

.T B

P/T G MDG , MDG , : , ,

M G .25 T x MDG, q q MDG.

E - Bj (2007, . 14) . Bj RE,

, , .

A q Dj, M, S (2002) x $4060 .Dj, M, S x, MDG - , x (. 21).

T , , -

. E x , MD G -

2015,

25 F A P P (2008,. 14), K A A -A B C A (2005). T G8 2002.


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A ( ).M A. C (2004) R S W W, - (. 2). A UNESCO 1960 U P E 1980. W , U.N. 2000.A 2000 ,

U.N. M D G 2015.S , - 1977 2015 M D G 1990.26S , x .

T . I - , - ( ) , q . F , ,

their . F, ,

26 U N H, W S W C, 2003, ://...//1844070042I. ://..///.-URL_ID=37612&URL_DO=DO_TOPIC&URL_SECTION=201..

, M DG - , , - G.H, ( - -). R P (2006)

: - x , , (. 6).

D - x , . T A ( ). H, , x , .., A . I x x -

.I ,

M D G x, - , x all .T 1990 (


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W B P J WC D F.)T - ( ) , .

3.4 Aid and Social Indicators

3.4.1 Education

3.4.1.1 Trends in Education and MicroEvidence

D , - A .P

( 7). T

- A A , A ( C K 2005). O , . T -

- (K 2008); 1960 - (C 2004). T z , , .

Figure 7. R E P A

G

rossprimaryenrollmentrate(perc

ent)

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

Africa


1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005


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T z ( A) -. K, M, R L.T () K , x . I , x K

not (PG, K, S M 2007), (, .., M E.

L E A. H 1988; P F(1999) x). T K ( ),

E (x E) . C V (2003) K 21 - 29 . I ,

- . N x x RE ( K,M, T ,

).A , A . (2002) -

C. T 0.120.16

, 0.2 , ( - A, E B, K 2006).

T -z K A H(, . 31):

E x x (Bj . 2005;D, P D, K 2007; G . 2007), (G . 2008; K M S 2007), (Bj . 2007; D . 2007; H . 2007), z , , (Bj S 2007; D, D, K2007), (A

. 2002, 2006; B . 2007).

I RE . Y -

, . O - - , x , -. A RE x .D (2009, . 60) :

T ,

, , - .S K x - K, , , . I - .

O RE - . T P


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Mx (q (CCT)) -z . T. P Sz (2004) , 0.66 - 6.8 -. J R. B, P S, P T (2005) 0.7 ( , , ).

T CCT A -z , S 2008.27T , PROGRESA, .

A RE . T M K (2004) K -q( ). A H B (2007), - R F A S . B

. G J.B, M, C P-S(2006) , V A, - - -

27 T B Oz W B CCT A.

I. T x .

S , , . E, RE q x A19602005, - RE . A , -

-. I , -z A x A , -. O, could , ,

, .

3.4.1.2 Results rom EducationD A -

, - , P (2001). E x, M ,

- -

. A P , - z - . A B. K ML (2001) P


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A - - , A .H, P (2006) - . T A z j A , (P

2006). P x , . E - - , A, (H L W 2008).28

A - - ( ) q , (R J. B X S--M 2003). G D .(2004)

B x - .29H K (2000) H W (2008) q( ) ,

.L q x q, q q.

H, M B P J. K(2000)

, x ( - ). E(2001) P (2006) - - , 1960 1990. E , A z - x , q

28 A P , changes . A F R D (2006) qOECD . U, OECD - A. D C M S (2007) q

; , q j K L . A P negative , x q - .

29 T, E A , x E A .


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/ .30

W A .T - j-

, x .

30 O , - . H, D A A (2001) x

3.4.2 Health

3.4.2.1 Trends on Health in Arica

H A, ( 8).T - , x,

- G ,

( q x - ); q x .T x- U.S. .

Figure 8. R H P A

Africa


1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Under-ved

eathsper1,0

00populationunder

ve

300

250

200

150

100

50

0


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,DDT q( -), WHO - . T A ( , ) - A ( R L 2007).

I , z , -, RE. U- - A,

( 8 ). W A ( ), - ( x, A ), , , ; - . E , A - ,

.

T W j A.T j .., , , , -

q , - AIDS W ( DC, D, A L-M2006). T A

W;

W A, . A S J (2007)

- x- 1940.

F, z NGO. F, -

. P G (2004)

PROGRESA -- j , - ,

. F -z , G 2225 - , 1 (, zz, - ), 25 . T

( V A 3), -z. T P S S . T B, M, P-S (2006) --

-- . T , x .(A, -

q . T - .)


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I , - M K (2004) K, x .B (2007) R - A S.

A RE (Ax P Z K 2007).B, z - , -

(ORT) z . U , - . C ORT , 1980. RE - , . T - q RE . S , ,

- .

3.4.2.2 Approaches to Improving Healththrough Foreign Aid

3.4.2.2.1 Horizontal versus Vertical

D , A . T . T , - - , -, . A j

, x . H, A , . I , x . T 4 -S A (

, ). T

/ 7080 z ,

z, 2030 - A

- - ( -

- 3, V A).T z -

, . Hz z

- j , -. D

; z - - , A .

T . A - ,


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z . B 1980, WB (.., z-), x .T 1993 W B World DevelopmentReport , x, .

B , , AIDS A

, -- , - G F AIDS, TB, M 2002, U.S. PE P AIDS R (PEPFAR) 2003, P M I 2005, G F -z ,

. T

-, - HIV A(S 2008). H, - AIDS, , - , AIDS -

. F x, x j Lancet J 2003 5.5 2003, . T - AIDS , x, x- . (G J . 2003)

TABLE 4Most Recent Health Indicators for Africa Compared to all Low Income Countries

AL

A R I ( 5 )*

43 44

C ( 5 )**

38 23

D ( 5 )*

38 40

Iz, D/P/T( 1223 )**

71 67

Iz, M( 1223 )**

69 67

V A ( 659 )**

79 76

*

M 20002006.**

R W D I 2005.


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R E (2008) AIDS 3.7 , 25 .E AIDS , , (D C 2006). M, AIDS P- G W. B J2008 x 2003- $15 PEPFAR $30 ( ). AIDS x -

.

T W B (2007) z. T

. . . (. 15). B G8 S J 2008 A

: G8 , ,, HIV/AIDS -, 2010.31

T -z x- A. T

z - . T - , - ( ) - (

31 2008 G8 S D, D A, J 8, 2008, . 2.

AIDS). F , - z - .

3.4.2.2.2 User Fees in Health

A - . T W B x j 1980 1990 ( ) , z

. T WB 1990 NGO - -

.T -

- -

, - ( ),/ . O , z j x , .

T RE - - . I - - . U, , R () . F


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x, q J C D (2007) 75 ( z) 75 . S NA, J B, J M. S(2007) - .

T A . K M (2007)

- 80 K. K H(2008) -

RCT -: , HIV . T P , , - . E A, B, S (2007) ( , q

). T RE -

, - .

T RE zz: x

T x , z K H (),

- -. T , M K (2004) , x , - . I x , - , , - z

( - -). T - , x; N M . (2008) - NGO W K L V . G - x, - .

3.4.3 Water and Sanitation Inrastructure

I x ,

- - j.

3.4.3.1 Trends on Water and SanitationIndicators

T A . T - A ,


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( 9).32 T - j, . A, z

.

32 T zz. W z, . T . T , ( ).

T z -

. I - , - - -

.RE - -

. A , A, B, S (2007) - L, Z, x- - .Z K (2007) -

Figure 9. R I P A

Logbase10scale

2

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

1

100

80

40

20

10

Africa


1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2004

Percentwithcleanwater


41/75


.H ,

, (Z K 2007). H, .K . (2008) q K ( E. coli). H, q ,

, , . W - , Z K -

. A K .(2008) K

(

) $0.86$1.72 (

- - ). A , - - . T RE ,

RE .

3.4.3.2 Changing Fashions inInrastructure Aid

I , - q .

B 1994 W B WD R , z q . D -, , .O , B P Ex R -. T j -

j, ( C I N, - $5 Aj N 1979

, - E,K K - D A M). T - x C A, - .

R, q - , - j A (U.N. D P 2005;B C 2005; S 2005, 2008;

C 2007). T B C (2005), x, A $10$20 W q (. 49).33 T

W B q 2008:F

33 A C .


42/75


x (WSS). P WSS MD G , .34

T z q . Tq q . T z ,

S A W K . N - . O, - q - (Z K 2007). L ( , , ) . I , RE , , q - .

A ( ) -

, , - . I , . T W B( x IMF) 1980 -

34 ://../R62P1EEJD0, A 1, 2008.

( z ). A , - z (

x ). A 1990 NGO z z - . H,

z . T - , -z . F x, z A

5 7 A (S G, G, E S 2005).

3.5 Agriculture

A A ( q L H1938 ). T - A 1970 z , A. Y A

, -. T -z , A - A ( 10).35 O ,

35 O x A - z A.


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- , -- - A , , , .

C K. E D C. B (1982) q A

x - , A . S , , , ( 3 1938 H R ). P WB -. W B (1997)

F V A. W B (2003) R R P, 80% , F V A. T q ,

q . R RP (. 10).

T , W B 19912006 (W B IE G 2007), . T 2008 W B WorldDevelopment Report (. 15) A

Figure 10. F F P A R G R A

(3X)

(2X)

(1.25X)

(1X)

.75XLogofindexoffood

productionpercapita(index=1.0

in

1961)

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

2001

1993

1995

1997

1999

2003

Africa

East Asia

South Asia


44/75


.36WorldDevelopment Report 2008 x-

x- . S S K E(2004) T 1980 . . . (. 18).

T U.N. , W F S 1996 A

. T FAO(2006) j : T

, j (. 4).

A -, E (1999) M A G R A .O , x A A G R A. M x - A -, A q , , , , A (. 29).

T W (W B 1992)

, 40 W B j A

j ( 59 j A, 72 A j).

36 I A / .

T j- A - -

z z R&D x 1960 - ( ) 1970, 1980 1990 - j, R&D() x () z (

).T A

B - , - A (

) - 11. A z W B USAID - A, - NGO ( ); .

A -

. W , -

- xz .

H, A , A . R


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U.N. M C B C A 2005, W B 2008 WorldDevelopment Report , A. T B M GF (2006) G R

. T 2008 -. I , . A WF S FAO 2008, 180

j W

W F S 1996.37 TG8 S J 2008 A, , G R.38T - A

.I , RE

. O

37 D H-L C WF S: T C C C B, F A Oz, R, 5J 2008, . 1.

38 G8 L S G F S, J8, 2008; 7().

Figure 11. T S O A A S S A

0.3

0.25

0.2

0.15

0.1

0.05

0

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2004

2002

Sharesofa

griculture

ands

ocialsectorsinf

oreigna

id

2006

Social

Agriculture


46/75


z A , . D, K, JR (2008) z z K , RE z. T , q G z , j . T K

. T z z z , zz q- . I , TG. C C R. U (2007) -z , , G ( q q ).

A D, K, R(2009) x z . T z x . S

z

. T RE - - z , q RE - . T x- z - x,

.RE , q .

O ( RE) . A - - . I ,

. J L M MM (2007) z E, . T , . H, E , - . H, j . T q , - .

3.6 Conclusions on Project Interventions

T j x, , . M j -, . RE ,


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. T x A , .

I , q I - . I : P - .

T j , .

A P W(2004) ( ) - . S x, - ( ),

. S, - - . A

x, , - . T x- , -, . I x x- , . T x - . T

j - - - . I , - - ( ) -. T ( - ).

T RE

, , ORT, . , x. T RE

. RE , , -

j .A j

T W. I

- , j - A. I F X A

, .., A, -. T 1970, - j A , 1980, x.


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4. The Beginning o SystemicInterventions: Structural Adjustment

T j A W , , , A. T q j

.F x, P

, L (2008), PROGRESA , - j Mx - . S - -

. T G F (HK, S, S K, T),

- .T , , x

.T

x -. M, , , - , . H, , z -x

( , ) - . Y , .

4.1 Record on Structural Adjustment

S j (SAL) 1980 I MF W B. T

, j

() . I A, - A: (1) x , (2) x x (1), (3) , (4) q - / , (5) q , (6) . C , z, , z, W C (

J W). T j 1991 W D R W B (1991), j (-, , x , ) ( ). T


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J I D K(1999).

H, A 1980 1990 j.T E A ( ) , A LA M E. W -, , A Dx (2007): A , , z

. A , , , (. 24).

H, j . T - - - ( ). S - B DA (2004): - (. 2).39 T W B (2005) : , . T W B

GC, M 2008, - : I ,

39 A B D A O B, G C, SF, J F, P K, D R,J S, J Sz.

(C G D 2008, . 29). T - SAL .

T SAL , NGO ( -), IMF W B .

I , SAL, , Poverty Reduction and Growth Facilities IMF, Poverty Reduction SupportCredits W B.

4.2 Eect on Policies

W - A - SAL,

T SAL -: (1) SAL , (2) A - j . T - A SAL,

.T

SAL , , . T - SAL , -x C I 198099. T q j- : (1)


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q , , SAL , (2) SAL ( , ), SAL , SAL.I (2), - z j .

T (1), E (2005) SAL x . C . (1997)

SAL . W B(1998) (. 51) K j SAL, . T IMF (I EO (IEO) 2002) z IMF , . TIEO (2007) IMF SAL 19952004 ( - SAL 1999). IEO(2007) .

Y E (2005) x , SAL . I - IMF W B

, , SAL.

W SAL S (2003) . S W B, x, x ,

x .40 T . T .

E SAL , A - j - j, x SAL. S - x .A ,

A 82 PPP 1980.41 O 19802001, - ( j F- CFA F 1994), 1990, A PPP , ( 12). T - x x A.

T - q x .E (2005) j : 40 -, 40, 40

, 5. T SAL-

40V W (2001) z j A.

41 T D (1992), x x x U.S. CPI x .


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j - j 198099, .

.3 Eect on Growth

T IMF/WB j

.T W B/IMF j, j

. S NGO SAL SAL - q - ,

. A Pz JR V (2000) - q IMF x, , . V IMF , ,

( IMF ), IMF . C , IMF 1.5 .

B J-W L (2005) IMF q q IMF

Figure 12. D T R Ex R O

95percentcondenceintervalforMedianRealO

vervaluation

(100=a

djustedPPP,above100meansoverv

aluation)

240

220

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2004

2002

1966

1968

1970

1972

Median

Upper bound

Lower bound

4.


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- U S j IMF. U -, B L IMF . E(2005) IV W B IMF j F ,U.S. , - z; SAL . O, - ( SAL F

, x), , -. T , , SAL ( IMF

W B ).T

, , . I , .SAL - .

I SAL z - . H, , x.

A SAL ( HI P CHIPC

1996 SAL , M D R I - 2005 ,

). S SAL A (z - ),

.42 O - W B ID A (IDA) - HIPC ( - HIPC ). O

IDA - SAL, HIPC. T, UN (2008,. x) - HIPC -- . T

W B IMF , z .

5. Aid, Institutions, and Development

T j A - . U - -

, W 1990 , , . T

42 A , . H, W B IMF .


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( A, J, J A. R 2005). H, - , .

H, - . A R(2006) , - - , - . A R

(2006) , W- -, x . I , , - ,

.M, -

j -: , , , ( ). T , , ,

, . . O z , - .

T x A

x . I , - , , T - A, (V B, A C, L P 2002; N G I R 2007),43 (N N 2007, 2008), (E L 1997; R L P

. 1999), (M M 1996), - z (A A,E, J Mz -). M, - .

F, - , - ( E2008 ). R F M (2007) x U.N. M , .A U.N. - S.

F . F x, S Dj . (2008)

43 J I (1995) A - , z x, , .


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, . T negatively

W V S z , - .

5.1 Corruption

C , 1990, . O

W B J W 1996 A M B IMF. T . I - , - . H, j - SAL, . I , ( ), A B

W (2002) E (2007).

T , q

. H, , - , . T - - (

- , - P (2008) ). P x S (2005) - . A , - . I S,

,

- (- x

). Tq , .

5.1.1 Trends on Corruption

T A 19962006. T K, K, MMzz (2007), -, . T KKMzz , z N (0,1). A -

0.6 - ( 13), 19962006 ( - ). T - q .


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5.1.2 Empirical Evidence on Aid andCorruption

W O - A (S 2000). T Bj P

(2007) -z , -. Bj P U P I - (

!) O ( A ) - (A, RzBq, E 2000) (T B . 2004). A - -

( A, Bq, E 1999 Ez F. P. L 2001 US; Bj, L I, RS (2005) I; M M K G 2005 K).I q .

S K (2001) ,

Figure 13. C A I P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

11996 1998 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

CorruptioninAfrica

relativetoothercountries19962

006(Kaufmann

etal.2007)distributedapproximatelyunitNorma

leveryyear

Average

Lower bound

Upper bound


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, q, . S K - z, , .H, J T (2003) , IV . I .O , -

j q , -

.T z

. O Bj A. O (2007), I j. W

j ( 4 100 -), x 28 x 19 . T , .O - .O - (

) -, .

O ( z) - . I , R S (2004) -

13 - U . T

, . TU - . R S (2005) - - , 80 . T . A

- B, P, VjR (2005)

-, x - S I.

M , F (2001) I - S, S - . S - ( P 2008, . 316869). MB . (2007) I x ,

q ! T x , . R


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x .

5.2 Democracy

A - - , C

W 1990

- ( TC 1999, 2004 x -). T , ( -, .) A, x

, z - - .

5.2.1 Trends on Democratization

A , ( q )

x- ( 14). H, A - , ( ).

T KKMzz - A -

Figure 14. Dz A I P

Source: F H.

1

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0Share

ofnotfreestatesindifferentregionalgroups

Africa

Non-Africa developing (excl. transitioncountries)

Transition

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

Jan.

1981

Aug.

1982

Aug.

1982

Nov.

1983

Nov.

1983

Nov.

1984

Nov.

1984

Nov.

1985

Nov.

1985

Nov.

1986

Nov.

1986

Nov.

1987

Nov.

1987

Nov.

1988

Nov.

1988

Nov.

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006


58/75


19962006 ( - - ). T A

KKMzz .

T . D - L D R C. D K - D A M , 200708 -

. H, - ( N 2007), - (Z 2008). C, A , , Z (MO 2000).

C . A 1990 , z

- . U,

q , ,

M z(C 2004). I A, - , x . E , A - z . D

W- NGO NGO ,

(O 2000). W - - .

O (2008) z - . A I

j .

A j , - j . A, . I , - ! A ( ) - .

5.2.2 Empirical Evidence on Aid andDemocracy

A - z .K (2004)

1975 2000, . Dj, J G. M, MR-Q (2008, 2006) , . T , - . T :


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. M, P,

W (2008) - - z x . T A, A q 37 x 19902006 ( 4 -A ). T -

( x ) j , - . A - , , A

.

5.3 Property Rights: Land Titling

T . IA , ,

. HD S (2000) - ( D S ) . T q ( q A,

), . T

- , .

T - A, 1938 3 (H1938, . 868, 876): . . . -. T W B (2003) x

, x- :

{L} . F x, A, j , , z . (. x)

D , - , 1 A (B C A 2005, .231). I A, - . AP U (2006, . 16) D R C,C I, G, G, x:

- - x- . T , . . . . T j . F x, , x


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. A , .

O x . U ,

.

I, - A.H G. J B M (2007) -

M.K D Sq J (2006) z A , E ( , x) .44

W A M-A . (1991) A, , - -z . T .P (1996)

44 E A - . F P SM-A (1998), K , , ( ). A B F (A-SB, F G, J-P P2002) . K F-S P S(1999) C , .

. LzC (2007) K Bx PD A (2007) ,

- . M G U (2008) - ; - G .

RE x . E F x z - q P. F(2005) - - ( 68

). F (2007) , .

F Mx T (2006) D S

. T - , .I ,

9 . P D Ez P (2007) I , - (


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D S ). T I , . T , . T , . Sx . F ( 58 ).

P U 2006 L - , A .

T x P I -A A. Y x A, - A. TU.N. D P 2005 x: T . . . - q . . . q q j,

( . . . )(. 31, 111).

T , x x- . P -

.

6. Civil War and Failed States

S A , , , (.., S, S L, L,D R C). O x (..,R 1994, D -). P , A -

. R - z x x x .

T B , D I D (DFID 2006), - . . . DFID .

H , , W U.N.

- ,

. I x reductioal absurdum W .

T W B 2003 WB U I A PC W (. 1)


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:

O -q . . . I

{} . . .I . . . , , . . .-, , .

T - , ,

44 22 -.45 A - W B j 2003 , - . T - , - .

I -z , C (2007) - (

):S q. A ; . W , - q . T, , .( . 116)

I x

, x- . (. 124)

C z CI -. R, : . A

45 C . (2003), . 168.

. W j x . (.131)

S q x ,

x , . M . . . M -z . (. 177)

W A C(2007)

W B j - , x , , -, , , x , LHS RHS q x LHS , - , U.N. x-, ( ). U, -- , q - . E

LHS RHS . T Bj . (2006)

W B z ( ). A(2006, . 9) Bj :

T -. I . F ,


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. B . . . . C , - , . . . . I j . 46

W W B j z , RHS

. T q x , -, , .S

U.N. x , - . I , - q A.

O q, . F x,M, S S, ES (2004) , - ( x, , ). T , (

, ). F , M GR (2006) x -

46 A C N S (2003, 2003), - - - .

V W

V, . T W B j.

T W B , j , : x ,

- , .

H, - .T

, ( x z ). I, C, H, MS (2004) - : T 3 -,

, , x (. 11).

A ,

. T : , - ( ).T j , . J D. F (2005)


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. H H S(2006) S--M,D, R I. M (2003)B x . T , - .

T -. C (2007)

j A

( q ). H

B S L - , -x- S Iq, R (

, A J. K 2001). T q

j 47

I . B x , - -

, . T

- -

47 T C . F , C B M ().

(K 2004 T W. C K 2008).T , ( - ). Ex K L A (KLA),

K S 1997

-. T S NATO 1999 , ,

K, K NATO (D R 2002). I ,U C L P E A.P (2006) , ( S). T z ,

A x , x ( ).

T x - . I

z x -- - - .

T - ( A). W x


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A - 9/11, . A (DFID 2005; W B2002; USAID 2005), j ( j , , ). T W - z ForeignPolicy Foreign Aairs, . H, I

. P - , , .A

(S), .48 F , zz - , (USAID2005, . 20) (DFID 2005,. 7) -

(W B 2002,. 4). S - , x

j . S zz

48 T . S - A S B 1991 ( W 1997). E (2006) IMF - q ( ), - .

- .

T - - .C J. C (2008) x z - . H

- - . O , ( ), (

) ( ) . O , x- - - . F x-, - z , - -. F x-, C S U N, U.S. A, E z - . C - - ,

- (C 2008). I , S - , S P. J M.

W (2005) q


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q ( x U, E, S).

T x , . F, x C W, - - . S,

x x x A.

O - q, . I x - . B J A (2007) U q-z L R A. O . JB M (2008) z -

q S L, x - . Ez L P (2007) - R , - - .A

, - .

7. Conclusions

T W A. T A .I, , , ,

. T .

T RE - : , ,

( ).U, . TRE - , x x , . A RE

, , , , z -x ( - ).

T


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A . O q , . I .

A ( )

, - . T - .U, , - - , j , F F G , - j , , , , , -

, .

T ,

A, q A S T MS ( VI, II, 2):

T , , ; , .H , , j

. H -. H

- ; , - , - , . I - , -, . I , ,

.T

A. O A. F , x - z x A .

A , A. B x , x A x .

E - , . O -, 2 1960, . I A -1990

j ,


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x.

A , GDP (B M A, E A , , I C) - .49 I x . A , -

. P A A .

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