east asia economic outlook
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Slides presented by Sam Ruda, Chief Commercial Officer, Port of PortlandTRANSCRIPT
East Asia Economic Outlook
Sam Ruda
Chief Commercial Officer
January 2013
East Asia Economies and the Port of Portland
China economy dominates or strongly influences a large share of the Port’s maritime activity:
Containerized cargo growth
Fertilizer exports
Soda ash exports
Grain exports
Automobile sector may initially be an export opportunity for U.S.
Ford plans to export to China beginning in 2014
Already exporting to S. Korea (via Portland)
Chinese imports of raw materials (iron ore, coal) drives vessel charter market (currently at historic lows)
U.S. West Coast Containerized Imports by Origin
From Asia
Source: Port Import Export Reporting Service
1990 – Container Imports from China
Hong
Kong
Keelung
Kaohsiung
• In 1990, there were 1.3 million TEUs (7.8 million MTs) of containerized cargo exported from China to the United States
• Primary ports were Hong Kong, Keelung and Kaohsiung
• Roughly half of the cargo coming to the U.S. was sourced in Taiwan
• Mainland China cargo transshipped to Hong Kong, or Busan for delivery to U.S.A.
• Five of the top 20 busiest container ports in the world were in the U.S.
Source: Port Import Export Reporting Service
2010 – Container Imports from China
• In 2010, there were 8.5 million TEUs (55 million MTs) of containerized cargo imported from China
• Now, there are nearly a dozen ‘hub’ ports in China exporting containers to the U.S.
• Over $200 billion in containerized imports
Hong
Kong
Keelung
Kaohsiung Shenzhen
Dalian
Tianjin
Qingdao
Ningbo
Xiamen Guangzhou
Shanghai
Source: World Shipping Council
Source: Journal of Commerce
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Source: Journal of Commerce
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Containerized Exports to Asia from U.S. West Coast
The East Asian Economies lead in purchasing from the U.S.
But some of what the U.S. exports can be sourced elsewhere
The fastest growing trade in the world is within Asia
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
China Japan S. Korea Taiwan Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Singapore Philippines Malaysia
U.S. Agricultural Export Recipients by Country
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics Global Agricultural Trade System
Country 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
China 6.7 8.3 12.1 13.1 17.5
Canada 12.0 14.1 16.3 15.7 16.9
Mexico 10.9 12.7 15.5 12.9 14.6
Japan 8.4 10.2 13.2 11.1 11.8
China is the largest recipient of U.S. Agricultural products by dollar value surpassing Mexico and Canada
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
China $17.5 billion
Canada $16.9 billion
$6.7
Japan $11.8 billion
$8.4
$12
$10.9
Mexico $14.6 billion
$5
Agricultural Exports to China by Region
By total volume, bulk and container, primary gateways from the U.S. are the gulf and the Pacific Northwest
4%
44%
37%
15%
Source: PIERS Data
Columbia River Grain Exports
Source: Merchants Exchange
Columbia River Elevator Grain Exports
In Millions of Metric Tons
• Addition of new elevator in the river system will drive more cargo to the PNW
Auto Imports from Asia:
Imports as a % of total U.S. Sales is declining
High Yen is one factor…..but there are other strategic drivers
Rail Track Leads to Portland