East Africa

Tradeoff Analysis

Workshop

Workshop goals and strategy

StrategyMonday Introduction to TOA approachTuesday AM Conceptual frameworkTuesday PM Introduction to TOA softwareWednesday/ Thursday AM

Disciplinary breakout groups

Thursday PM TOA applications to Machakos system

Friday Collaborating team work plans & presentations

GoalsIntroduce TOA approach and tools to decision makers and scientists

Develop workplans for collaborating scientific teams

Today’s program

8:30-9:30 Opening session9:30-10:00 Introduction of participants, workshop goals10:00-10:30 Coffee

10:30-11:15 TOA conceptual framework11:15-12:15 Illustrative results from other case studies12:30-13:30 Lunch

13:30-14:00 Machakos tradeoffs - scenarios (breakout groups)15:00-15:30 Coffee 15:30-16:00 Reports from breakout groups16:00-17:00 Machakos scenarios and results

Tradeoff Analysis System Policy Decision Support for Agriculture

Unanswered questions in ag. science

1. Why are ag productivity and rural incomes low – and in many cases declining – in some regions of the world?

For example:

2. Why do many farmers use few, if any, purchased inputs and achieve extraordinarily low yields, while others in the same regions achieve high yields?

Interconnected physical, biological and human systems varying over space and time complex behavior:

- fallacy of the “representative farm”- emergent properties- multiple equilibria- the “O-ring” phenomenon: critical linkages

A new approach: Agriculture as a complex system…

An explanation for the highly varied performance of ag systems…and new insights into how that performance could be improved?

Soils & Climate Data Economic Data

Crop/Livestock Models Economic Model

Land Use &Management

Environmental Process Models

EconomicOutcomes

EnvironmentalOutcomes

Yield

Integrated Assessment Approach to Modeling Ag. Production Systems

Tradeoff analysis is a process designed to link policy decision makers to teams of scientists

with these new data and tools.

What is Tradeoff Analysis?

These tools can be used to understand the behavior of complex agricultural systems and how they may respond to changes in policy, technology, and environmental conditions.

•Public stakeholders•Policy makers•Scientists

Research priority setting

Project design & implementation

Inform stakeholders

•Identify sustainability criteria•Formulate hypotheses as potential tradeoffs•Identify disciplines for research project•Identify models and data needs

define units of analysis•Collect data and implement disciplinary research

Is TOA always a

linear process?

What is Tradeoff Analysis?

The Tradeoff Analysis model is a tool to model agricultural

production systems by integrating spatial data and disciplinary

simulation models.

What is the Tradeoff Analysis model?

It helps scientific teams to quantify and visualize tradeoffs

between key indicators under alternative policy, technology

and environmental scenarios of interest to policy decision

makers and other stakeholders.

GIS

DSSAT

DBMS

NUTMON

Policy

Survey

Weather

Economicmodels

GIS

DSSAT

DBMS

Leachp

Policy

Survey

Weather

Economicmodels

GIS

DSSAT

DBMS

Leachp

TOA Survey

Weather

Economicmodels

GIS

DSSAT

DBMS

Leachp

Policy

Survey

Weather

Economicmodels

GIS

DSSAT

DBMS

NUTMON

Survey

Weather

Economicmodels

A modular approach to integration of spatial data with bio-physical and economic models to simulate agricultural systems…

What is the Tradeoff Analysis model?

Econ Returns

Soil FertilitySoil Carbon

Conventional

Conservation

“Additionality”

Concepts: baseline, additionality, and permanence

1

2

•

•

Tradeoff Curves: Sustainability Indicators, incentives and scenarios

• Economic principle of opportunity cost• Intuitive appeal• Easy-to-understand (2-d)• Quantifies concept of sustainability• Represents risk: distributions of outcomes

– Health risk thresholds– Climate vulnerability – Poverty threshold (income/person/day)– Food security threshold (calories/person/day)

A useful way to communicate properties of complex agricultural systems:

Tradeoff curves

Other visualization tools.

Pesticideleaching

Low

High

Current 150%50%

Potato prices

Potato prices

Pesticideleaching

Low

High

Current 150%50%

Potato prices

Pesticideleaching

Low

High

Current 150%50%

Potato prices

Pesticideleaching

Low

High

Current 150%50%

Potato prices

Pesticideleaching

Low

High

Current 150%50%

Potato prices

Pesticideleaching

Low

High

Current 150%50%

Potato prices

Pesticideleaching

Low

High

Current 150%50%

Potato prices

Pesticideleaching

Low

High

Current 150%50%

Potato prices

Pesticideleaching

Low

High

Current 150%50%

• Economic – environment – health tradeoffs associated with pesticide use.

Examples

• Sustainability of agriculture on steeply sloped hillsides (hydric and tillage erosion, terracing, carbon).

• Carbon sequestration as a mechanism to finance adoption of sustainable production systems and institutions.