easier said than done: open problems in multilevel ...gelman/presentations/mrp_talk.pdfsurvey...
TRANSCRIPT
Observed data
−4 −2 0 2 4
Imputed data−−Missing completely at random
−4 −2 0 2 4
Imputed data−−Fitted normal model
−4 −2 0 2 4
−4 −2 0 2 4 −4 −2 0 2 4
−4 −2 0 2 4 −4 −2 0 2 4
Imputed data−−Various assumptions
Easier Said Than Done: Open Problems inMultilevel Regression and Poststratification
Andrew Gelman
Department of Statistics and Department of Political ScienceColumbia University, New York
Conference in honor of Rod Little, 31 Oct 2015
From Wikipedia:
Survey response rates are going through the floor!R
espo
nse
rate
1940 1960 1980 2000
0%20
%40
%60
%80
%10
0%
Year
Survey response rates are going through the floor!R
espo
nse
rate
1940 1960 1980 2000
0%20
%40
%60
%80
%10
0%
Year
The poststratification identity
θ =
∑Jj=1 Njθj∑Jj=1 Nj
The poststratified estimate
θ̂ =
∑Jj=1 Nj θ̂j∑Jj=1 Nj
Xbox estimates, adjusting for demographics:
Xbox estimates, adjusting for demographics and partisanship:
Why multilevel regression?
Open problems in MRP
I Deep interactionsI Non-census variablesI Survey weightsI Cluster samplingI Estimating regression coefficientsI Building trust in results