Meeting in commemoration of the "National day to promote public awareness of disaster risk reduction“ BCM Risk Working Group, The Business Council of Mongolia

March 30, 2017 American Cultural Center, Ulanbaatar

"Earthquake risk of Mongolia" BATTULGA, Sukhee Cooperative Center for RESILIENCE Research (NUM and Nagoya Univ. Japan)

Mogod Earthquake: 1957 Earthquake

Bulgan province, Mogod soum

60

Year to create awareness of earthquake risk and disaster risk

reduction 2017

2017.07.05 ӨЛГИЙ ХОТ, БАЯН-ӨЛГИЙ АЙМАГ, МОНГОЛ

164 families suffered. 110 buildings damaged. 1250 people were left homeless.

2016.07.28

Flood risk trends: (Average occurrence per 5 years)

Years 2001-2005: 12 Years 2006-2010: 17 Years 2011-2015: 20+-2 Years 2016-2020: 25+-2

D. Serjmyadag, 2012

Flood due to storm... Flood due to mountain snow melting... Flash flood...

Зургийг цахим хуудаснаас авав.

“SUFFOCATING...”

“ZUD”

DESERTIFICATION

HOW IS OUR “CAPACITY TO OVERCOME DISASTERS” ?

Kobe Earthquake (阪神淡路大震災), 1995.1.17

City of Kobe, Hyogo prefecture, JAPAN

CITY OF KOBE, HYOGO PREFECTURE,

JAPAN

Tōhoku earthquake, Northeast Japan, 2011.3.11

三十災害（地震・津波・原発）

TSUNAMI 21000

Human loss 61000

Displaced citizens (Japanese embassy)

KUMAMOTO, КYUSHU, JAPAN 熊本、九州、日本

KUMAMOTO, КYUSHU, JAPAN 熊本、九州、日本

РЭЦҮМЭЙКАН ИХ СУРГУУЛЬ, КЁОТО, ЯПОН

НАГОЯ ИХ СУРГУУЛЬ, НАГОЯ, АЙЧИ МУЖ, ЯПОН

天譴論（てんけんろん） Tengri, Kami’s punishment

運命論（うんめいろん）

Human “destiny”

精神論（せいしんろん） Strength, grit

「我慢する」 「耐える」 「頑張る」

「泣かない」

Accept Nature’s power

2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami

“force majeure” “staying positive” “trying to forget”

“be ready”...

Natural disaster: “CHALLENGE”

A History Of Large Earthquakes

Data: USGS PAGERCAT 1900-2008, USGS-NEIC & gCMT 2008-present

Figure courtesy of Charles Ammon, after Ammon et al., SRL, 2010

The 03/11/2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku, Japan Earthquake

Northern Sumatra, west coast, 2004, 9,1 М 9.1 Magnitude earthquake which occurred under ocean near Sumatran west coast affected 14 countries such as Sumatra, Indonesia, India, Thailand, Somali, Maldives and heaviest damage was caused in Indonesia. 168,000 Indonesians died and total human loss was over 240,000.

Northern Sumatra, 2005, 8,6 М Just after 2 months, another earthquake with 8,6 Magnitude hit the area again. 1300 people died and 5000 were injured. news.xopom.com/57565/ © XopoM News

Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia, 1952, 9,0 М

Maule coast, Chile, 2010, 8,8 М

530 people died 800,000 were left homeless. In total 1,8 million people were affected. news.xopom.com/57565/ © XopoM News

Assam, Tibet 1950, 8,6 М 1600 people died, 70 villages were wiped out. Epicenter was in Tibet and the damages reached many provinces of China, heaviest damage done in Sichuan. news.xopom.com/57565/ © XopoM News

Alaska, Prince William Sound, 1964, 9,2 М Landslide caused by the earthquake raised the islands up 11 meters and resulted in Tsunamis reaching 70 meters in height. In total 130 people died . 320 million USD property damage was recorded.

Kantо, Japan (関東大震災),

1923.09.01

Ecuadorian Coast, 1906, 8,8 М Almost 100 years ago, an earthquake occurring near Columbia and Ecuadorian coast caused 1500 deaths and injured over 10,000 people. news.xopom.com/57565/ © XopoM News

Natural disaster & disaster research: 1917 Canada, Nova Scotia Harbour, S.H.Prince ammunitions explosion disaster case study. 1937 Kentucky, US, Roosevelt flood. 1940’s Research during World War II 1950 Chicago University’s National Opinion Research Center/ NORC 40 years-long study on Natural disaster affected communities and groups 1952 “Community on Disaster Study” (1957, “Disaster Research Group) 1963 Ohio State University, “Disaster Research Center (DRC) 1972 DRC of USA, Japanese (安部北夫 etc) joint international seminar.....

Late 1950’s... “Individual ” “Team”

2015.10.3 15:30 20 km from UB, 4,4 magnitude

Khustai: 30-150 кm southwest Emeelt: 18 кm southwest Gunj: 5 кm northeast

3 active faults near

UB 2016, Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics by Mongolian Academy of Sciences

Magnitude 0.1-5.2

10849 times

Figure 1. Tectonic setting of Mongolia, and Ulaanbaatar, within the

wider India-Eurasia collision zone (from Vergnolle, et al., 2007).

Green circles show locations for the 1905, 1931, and 1957

earthquakes.

Source: Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics

Total area 55.4 % / 7-8 magnitude

Earthquake Geology of the Bulnay Fault (Mongolia) by M. Rizza, 2015

“World’s longest active fault” –Bulnay fault

300 km

A great earthquake of Gobi-Altay took place at

1957-12-04, 03:37 UTC with magnitude 8,1.

1905 Khuvsgul, Mountain range of Tsetserlegt Khul Azarga = 8,4 magnitude= 11-12 Mercalli scale=130 km Khan Khokhii Mountain= within 14 days =350 km 1931 Mongolian Altai =10-11 Mercalli scale 1957 Gobi-Altai= 270 km= Ikh Bogd Mountain Vertical 12 m, Horizontal 84 m canyon

“Монгол улсын эрсдэлийн тойм 2016”, Мандал даатгал, Эрсдэлийн даатгалын Форум

“Монгол улсын хөгжлийн урт хугацааны бодлого 2015-2040” (төсөл)

Монгол улсын Их хурал, Үндэсний хөгжлийн хүрээлэн, 2015, М.Алтанбагана, 2014

С.Чулуун, 2013, Уур амьсгалд зохицсон хөгжлийн талаархи бодлогын зөвлөмж, Баянхонгор, Өвөрхангай аймагт хийсэн судалгаа

“Sendai Framework 2015-2030” “THE PROJECT FOR STRENGTHENING THE NATIONAL

CAPACITY OF EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PROTECTION AND

PREVENTION IN MONGOLIA 2016”

In the first 10 months of 2016, 1260 tremors were recorded (Source: Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics)

：Ger district in 1975 ：Buildings in 1975 ：Ger district in 2003 : : Buildings in 2003 ：Ger district in 2014 ：Buildings in 2014

Matsumiya, 2015

“Long-term strategy of Mongolian development 2015-2040” (project) State Great Hural , Institute of National Strategy, 2015

Migration of citizens

Brick buildings 61% Block buildings 18% Steel concrete buildings 16% Wooden buildings 2% Steel buildings 2%

ULAANBAATAR

1960/1990 brick building resistance:

65% / 129%

1980/1990 karkaz building resistance:

50% / 78%

Damage to buildings:

683/2174

Human risk:

2441/8068

Human risk with Gers and private homes taken into

account:

3700/12000

Sustainability

Resilience UNISDR Аюулгүй, гамшигт тэсвэртэй хөгжих чадавхтай хотыг хэрхэн бий

болгох вэ? 2012

Т

Why could we not consider having URBANIZATION with NOMADIC STYLE ?.......

285,000 people would be gathered at 47 temporary shelters, and relocated to 24

locations in 6 zones.

Images obtained from web.

DISASTERS HAVE

STRUCK BEFORE.

HUMANS

WERE ALWAYS THERE.

CAN’T

ESCAPE DISASTERS...

• Mindset, capacity, immunity • Traditional wisdom, structure • Risk and disaster education • Information • Planning • Coordination • Local know-how • Volunteerism • Cooperation • Advantages maximized... • Realizes afterwards... • Forgetful...

IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT :

BUT:

CITIZENS

Government

Private sector NGOs

Cooperation

SEE THE LARGE PICTURE REFRESH MEMORIES

DO NOT FORGET RESOLVE ON OWN

Field work, 2016/08 Mogod sum, Bulgan aimag

Implementation of campaign for earthquake preparedness in 2017

(60th Anniversary of Mogod Earthquake) utilizing the findings of research and study by

multidisciplinary professionals (Plan)

・ Continuation of research and study in Mogod ・ Implementation of enhancing resilience in Mongolia by interdisciplinary activities of the Center ・ Building long-term vision in society in cooperation with researchers, citizens, students and administrative agencies ・ Development of young researchers