FMSI – 1711 OfficeJuly 30, 2015

Metropolitan Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study (MMEIRS), cites “many research studies (indicating) that active phases of the (West) Valley Faults (formerly the Marikina Valley Faults) are approaching and that the estimated magnitude will be around 7 or more.” But MMEIRS also raised the possible intensity from 7 to even 9, which could be “devastating.”

MMEIRS, a Japan-funded study that was begun in August 2002, identified the West Valley Fault, which lies just northeast of Manila, as “the fault expected to cause the largest impact in the metropolis.” The West Valley Fault traverses Marikina town, Pasig going to Muntinlupa up to the south.

The Fault, other studies showed, caused at least two major earthquakes within the last 1,400 years. No earthquake is known to have taken place along the West Valley Fault after the 16th century. But based on the estimated return period of less than 500 years, the Fault is due to exhibit dangers this century – or even within the next few years,

Dr. Norman Tungol of Phivolcs’ Geology, Geophysics, Research and Development Division (GGRDD) -  this projection “could be within the next few years, (or) few tens of years.” He also said that even if there is no need for the people to panic because there is no timetable yet, “dapat mag-prepare because it’s inevitable.”

He confirmed that an earthquake with intensity 8 or 9 could be expected in the Valley Fault with a possible magnitude of 7.2 because of the lengthy fault.

Dr. Arthur Saldivar-Sali, a former UP professor who is also now with the Geo-Technica Consultancy Group,  he tends to believe in the “probability analysis” of former Phivolcs Director Raymundo Punongbayan.

Shortly after the Mt. Pinatubo eruption in 1991, Punongbayan told of a higher probability of a major earthquake on the Valley Fault based on its rare movements. Since lesser energy is released in the friction of rocks, more energy is stored, like a rubber band, preparing for a big snap.

The intensity may range from: 7 in Quezon City almost 8 & 9 Marikina River and Manila

Bay, 8 at west of Metropolitan Manila 7 at other areas. Based on the Phivolcs Earthquake Intensity

Scale (PEIS), intensity 7 is “destructive,” while 8 and 9 are “very destructive” and “devastating,” respectively.

Rank MagnitudeDeath toll

Location Date

1 7.89,018[1]  Nepal 25-Apr

1 7.8 0 Japan 30-May

3 7.5 0 Papua New Guinea 29-Mar

3 7.5 0 Papua New Guinea 5-May

5 7.3218[1]  Nepal 12-May

6 7.10

Northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge 13-Feb

6 7.1 0 Papua New Guinea 7-May

8 7 0 Indonesia 27-Feb

8 7 0Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge 17-Jun

8 70

 Solomon Islands 18-Jul

8 71[3]  Indonesia 27-Jul

July 30, 2015 – Nagubu Batangas, Ph Magnitude – 4.2 (3:03am)

July 29, 2015 – Palimbang, Sultan Kudarat, Ph Magnitude – 4.8 (2:51am)

July 25, 2015 – Catarman Northern Samar, Ph Magnitude – 5.2 (4:41pm)

July 13, 2015 – Santa Monica Siargao, Ph Magnitude – 6.1 (12:36am)

Safe Areas Danger AreasUnder the Sturdy Table Glass Window

Glass WallGlass DoorUnder the AirconBeside Cabinets

The KEY to Effective Disaster Prevention is

PLANNING.

Make sure to have fire extinguisher, first aid kit, battery powered radio, flashlight, whistle.

Learn how to turn off the gas, water, electricity

Familiarize with the exit routes Learn how to use first aid kit Make up plan where to meet after the

earthquake

Don’t Panic & Stay Calm.

If you’re indoor stay inside, if you’re outside stay outside.

DROP – COVER – HOLD ON Duck under, a sturdy desk or table, and

hold onto it, protect your head with your arms.

Stay away from furniture, windows and lamps

Beware of falling objects, Be alert and keep your eyes open.

Check yourself!

Be prepared for aftershocks, once shacking stops take the fastest and safest way out.

DONT – use elevators, enter damage building,

DO – check yourself and others for injuries, check electrical lines for damages, and control fire if present

Keep Safe Everyone. - jek