earth: early assessment of expected return of new ... · study case: telemedicine patient...
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Ph.d.‐Student/HTA‐consultant, MSc. in Economics, Iben Fasterholdt
Department for Quality, Research/HTA
Odense University Hospital, Denmark
International Digital Health and Care CongressLondon, 10th of September 2014
EARTH: Early assessment of expected return of new innovative medical technologies in hospitals
Study case: telemedicine patient briefcase
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Bagground: Health Economist (HTA, miniHTA, business cases, CEA). Focus: telemedicine
Supervisors PhD: Kjeld Møller Pedersen (COHERE), Kristian Kidholm + Knud Yderstræde (CIMT)
Setting:• 5,5 million, 5 region• OUH 1/10 of Danish HCS
HealthTechnologyAssessment‐unit at OUH
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Imagine…
AgendaObjective ‐ Context ‐Methods ‐ Results ‐ Q&A
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Hospital Director: We face a similar challenge• A crowd of new technologies and treatments
– good and bad ones• Costs and effects are unknown, e.g. no
information about cost effectiveness before research is finished after 1 – 3 years
ObjectiveTo early assess how cost effective (sea‐worthy) an innovative medical technology is expected to be
Treatments New Devices
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Hype Cycle Theory • Technology phases: • Invention to (perhaps) effective usage
• Early forecasting (candid expectations up front) may:
• Identify and eliminate bad projects earlier
• Shortcut: steer more clear of obstacles – on course
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The consequence model ‐ Early decision support can highly impact decisions!
Source: page 35 in (Krogerus 2012)).
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Methods ‐ Phase 1 to 4
Literature review: 1) forecasting theories in pharma/medical device
industry 2) cognitive biases
Interviews with industry/academic
experts
Develop a forecasting
model for IMTs in a pilot stage
Assess predictive abilities of model
Retrieve and produce data for validating model
Rare access to data about KPIs over time
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Preliminary results from reviews (1/3)
Forecasting Theories: Bayesian Methods• Bayes’ Theorem: combine prior information with current information (evidence) on a quantity of interest
• Must update the captain of the ship frequently and efficiently about all changes to sailing conditions!
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Preliminary results from reviews (2/3)
Cognitive biases • Survivorship bias (technological hype) • Hindsight bias • Etc.
Solution• Take biases into account designing EARTH (help enhance rational predictions / assessments)
• Bayesian Methods makes sure we don’t forget the past (counter hindsight bias by building an “evidence bank” of deviations over time, e.g. for size of target group)
<= Ulysses contracts (not common in economic evaluation ‐ but PAP in clinical research)
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Preliminary results from reviews (3/3)
Example: Confirmation‐bias
Essence: Synthesize various methods (those you have seen + more to come!) to create an effective early
evaluation of technologies in hospitals
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MiniHTA (hospital based HTA)• Weak handling of uncertainty / change in knowledge + ”1.shot”‐exercise
MAST ‐Model for ASsessment of Telemedicine• Remember the consequence model… => Room to augment “preceding considerations”
Kidholm et al. “A model for assessment of telemedicine applications – MAST”. International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care, 28:1 (2012), 44–51.
What is new in EARTH? – compared to the evaluation‐toolbox used at hospitals today
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Contact: [email protected]
Conclusion: EARTHs mission is to help hospitals “to kill your darlings” early
Technologies